Magox

It's not just my assumptions its also based on historical data. I fudged with the numbers and gave Trump an unprecedented white turn out, higher than normal African American share and higher than what just about everyone agrees would be his Latino turnout. Your hypothesis is based off Rainbows and Unicorns. If you are so confident, why don't you up the bet that he'll win period, regardless of what happens in the primaries. He has a commanding lead, let's make that bet.

Jeb Bush is too weak of a candidate.

Sorry, your logic doesn't hold up. Basically your argument is one from a partisan perspective. Even though I vehemently disagree with Obama on a ton of issues, he is popular with young, hispanic, asian, black and liberal voters. He has a winning coalition and he's proven that. Trump's popularity has a much lower ceiling than Obama's. I won't go in depth about his appeal to blacks and asians, because I don't know. But I can safely say that they won't be part of his coalition. And we already know that Hispanics are going to be out in record numbers by a wide margin if he were to get the nomination. The only way that Trump could win is if his opponent is really weak and that he absolutely runs up the score with whites and peels off a higher % of black votes than a typical year. In other words above 10%. Check this simulator out. You can play with the numbers. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html Bottom line, you need Florida to win. Last year Romney got 59% of the White vote, 27% of the Latin Vote and 6% of the black vote. Trump is headed towards 15-18% of the Latin Vote. If you plug in 62% of the white vote (which I don't believe he will get) bump up the black vote to 10% and the Latin vote, lets say to even 22% (Which he absolutely wouldn't get) He still loses Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia and Iowa. Like I said, I base my conclusions largely on data. Here is more data: Here is the actual poll. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2274 This poll along with a number of others says a few things. Hillary is a weak candidate, all you have to do is look at Biden and you can view him as a "generic" candidate and fares much better. Of course once he steps into the ring his numbers will eventually go down at some point. Two, look at how many people don't like Trump, not only do they not like him but they think he is a carnival barker. But until this race whittles down to just 2-4 people, he is going to continue to dominate, simply because his followers are entranced with him, and no matter what positions he takes or how many times he flops, even if he flops from one position to another within minutes, they don't care. So, that's where we are.

Hypocrite Alert!

It's not just Ozzy, there are a lot of them. I haven't seen anything like this since Obama, he has the most adoring fans of anyone I have seen from the right in my adult life. Grant it, Obamas support was much much widespread, but the devotion and intensity is pretty remarkable. As of right now, I see Trump winning the first three primary states of NH, Iowa and South Carolina. His base of support is much deeper and intense than any other of the candidates but his ceilings is one of the lowest. The only way the race evens out is once the field whittles down. The anti Trump vote as this progresses will be intense, and it's not going to be the "establishment" that will rally behind another candidate, it will be all those people who believe Trump is a clown, and there are a lot of them.

I was just about to say the same thing.

Unfortunately, they both came out as winners. Without doubt, Trump's followers were reminded yet again why they love him. While Ramos was able to show his audience with comments such as "Go back to Univision" which was interpreted as go back to Mexico and seeing him kicked out (deported) by Trump his antipathy towards Latino's. As someone who lives in Miami, I can tell you that this is being blasted throughout the local channels and every bit of it is casting Trump as the villain. Trump was at -51% favorability with latino's, expect that to go down even further. And with that sort of dislike with Latino's, if he did happen to get the GOP nomination, you can't win with those numbers in many of the swing states. Ramos and Trump both achieved what they could have wanted out of the mixup.

Wasn't referring to any existent proposals, just responding to Gator's comment that he was in favor of granting citizenship.

I use to, but not anymore. I have come to the conclusion that rewarding illegal behavior with citizenship is a bridge too far for me walk. I know of many friends of mine who have tried to go through the onerous process of trying to get a visa and ultimately a legal status to get and stay here. And all too often they are unable to obtain this legal status. Rewarding people who came here illegally not just with legal status, but taking it to the next level, citizenship is wholly unfair. Since they are already here, we can't break up the families and rip them from their communities and ship them home as much as Trump's supporters would love to see. But that doesn't mean we give them the rights to become citizens, legal status of residency is more than fair.

Haven't really thought about it. And don't try your jedi mind tricks with me, mr.

Any form of taxation can be argued as a form of redistribution. And it was partly a Repub idea, and a bad one at that. I've always been a proponent of incentives rather than punitive forms of taxation to change behavior, with the exception of matters related to health.

Pardon me if I don't take anything serious from a website called Marco Rubio amnesty man. I live in south Florida and I can tell you that I have never once heard Rubio referred to as Little Mel. And I have no doubt that kicking out the burrito eating beaner played well with you guys.

Rubio stands a better chance at getting more people in total to turn out to vote for him. Every single view he has is about as conservative as Cruz's other than immigration. Rubio's views on immigration are inline with what the majority of the American public wants, which NOW he supports border security first and then a pathway to legal status. He is the best bet.

He's more electable than Trump, that's for sure. I'd be interested in seeing some head to head match ups vs Hillary. I fear that he wears his religion on his sleeves too much to be electable in a general election. I could be wrong, he makes good arguments but none the less, much of the electorate gets turned off by this.

You think they would treat Trump better than Hillary? C'mon now.

I'm not gonna lie, I'm dumbfounded of the undying devotion his followers have for Trump. I read the comments section of articles often to try to get a gauge of things. I will say this, this is the first time I've seen Trump's supporters kind of show anything bordering on criticism, regarding this war with FOX. I just hope that Kelly continues to show things that sheds a true light on his positions. It's important that people understand them and not allow him to just get away with the things he says. The mainstream media, in all honesty has really given him a pass. Yes, there has been criticism, but it's sort of like when Joe Biden says something, they shrug and chuckle it off as "there goes Uncle Joe again". Same with Trump, they give him a pass. You and I both know that ends once it becomes a two person race. If he were to manage to win the nomination, there would be no more passes. The press would turn on him in a big way.

Buzz off. Not interested in talking to a partisan putz . You aren't a serious person.

The war between Ailes and Trump is back on again. Looks like Kelly is getting a lot of support from her colleagues.

You know, when I saw that, I was thinking that in any normal setting, someone would look at that and roll their eyes and think to themselves, "what a poor dumbass". But, he knows the base of his supporters. And for the base of his supporters, it was another "YAAAAAAA!!!!! Tell that burrito eating maggot how it is! YAAAAA!"

She is suffering the consequences, for the first time I feel that she has a real distinct possibility of losing the primaries. She is losing even in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan by 5+ points vs the top tier GOP candidates. That is bad if you are a Democrat. On the flip side, every single day that passes, Trump has gained strength and he is the only major candidate that is losing vs. Hillary in these very same polls. At this stage, my guess is they will do the same thing Claire Mccaskill did in MO. She didn't want to go up against the establishment candidate, she was being beaten by around 10 points on average. So they mettled in the primaries, and they actually ran ads for Todd Akin. Remember him? And Claire was able to help tip the scales just enough for Akin to win, and then of course she beat him in a conservative state like MO. But Hillary is looking weak.

Jeb is not a good politician, not right now he isn't anyway. Mitt Romney wasn't a good politician either even though I substantively agree with both of these guys on many issues. But in order to win, you usually have to be a good politician/salesmen and Jeb doesn't look like he has what it takes. I mean, I have little doubt that if he were to be paired up one on one vs Trump he'd win, but that's not how it works. It appears to me that Trump as much as I hate to admit it, Jeb, Rubio and Cruz are going to be around for a very long time. That's not to say that others won't just that these four I see as lock ins to be here late into the process. With all the polls coming out that match up against Hillary, Rubio matches up the best, then Jeb, then Walker. Even though Walker I think has looked really bad as of late. Here is a matchup in Michigan, just to show you how far off and weak Hillary is

You are the epitome of what a low-information voter looks like.

You are one delusional pup.

You are right. Look at how he goes after his opponents. Remember you, GG and I were talking about him being a plant for Hillary. Honestly, I don't believe that, but this is better than what she could have possibly concocted. Which is to gain support of a good portion of the base, have them abandon their core principles and turn into quasi big government liberals who are ok with raising taxes, taking people's property for the "greater good", huge government spending etc etc. Then have his cult like followers then endorse white identity politics, and attempt to have them turn on FOX news. He is a liberal's wet dream.

None of my friends that came here illegally would have been stopped because of a wall. Not a single one of them. Most of them basically applied for work visas to work in the Bahamas, the plane trip from Bolivia to the Bahamas stops in Miami. From there they stay here. The best way to control illegal immigration is cracking down on the employers. Because that IS the reason why the vast majority of illegal immigrants come, which is to work. Crack down on the employers and you will cut off the flow of illegal immigration.