jonramz

just view in private mode...

I wrote this post on pretty much this exact topic http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2012/8/1/3213626/play-breakdown-why-do-we-even-have-brad-smith-playing-qb And then I wrote this about the Bills play calling in 3rd and short. Which includes wildcat success rates. http://yardsperpass.com/?p=63 I'll be more than happy to answer any questions. My final conclusion is that it is very successful at converting short yardage. And we are going to see more and more QB runs this year in the NFL

Unfortunately, the NFL doesn't release stats like this about every team, all of this had to come by reviewing every game's play by play data. Otherwise I most definitely would have compared them to the NFL average. As far as the 3rd and 1, 3rd and 2 vs 3rd 3-5, here are those stats. For the Bills, 3rd and 1 was completely different than 3rd and 2. 3rd and 2 was treated much more as a passing down, than a running down 3rd and 1 Shotgun: 24% Pass: 14% Run: 86% ---Wildcat: 28% (60% success rate) B. Smith stopped only once --- QB Sneak 33% Overall success rate 62% (one success via penalty) 3rd and 2 Shotgun: 69% Pass: 85% Run: 15% ---Wildcat: 50% Overall success rate 46% (all runs were successful) 3rd 3-5 Shotgun: 93% Pass: 93% (1 scramble, 1 sack) Run: 7% ---Wildcat: 25% Overall success rate 43% Btw the Bills finished 28th in 3rd down conversion % in the NFL, only 32.5%, not good -Jon yardsperpass.com Bills completed 63% of the passes Bills were successful in converting on 32% -Jon yardsperpass.com

1) Last year the Bills had 22 3rd downs against the Patriots They passed on 19 of them, what did they do on the other 3? Kicked 2 field goals (made one, missed one), and Fitzpatrick scrambled on the other Not a running play to be found. 2) The % of snaps the Bills operate out of the shotgun Note: 2nd and 3rd down are separated out into what I would consider "short" and "long" for their respective down and distances. 1st and 10 46% shotgun 2nd and 1-5 50% shotgun 2nd and 6+ 61% shotgun 3rd and 1-4 67% shotgun 3rd and 5+ 89% shotgun I thought they were pretty interesting stats... it's the offseason, I'm going through football withdrawal -Jon yardsperpass.com EDIT: See my post below for further stat breakdowns

maybin is hustling to the QB... I will give him credit for that... but that sack is credited to Rex Ryan... he got Maybin matched up on a bad pass blocking RB, while the center and right guard had nobody to block

Here is the pre-snap look. Giants come out in what looks like press man, with a deep safety. Something the Bills have been seeing a lot of lately. Jackson motions from the slot into the backfield for a pistol look. http://i4.photobucke...wn/presnap1.jpg The play This looks like a basic zone running play where the line all moves to the left. Covered lineman block the guy in front of them and uncovered linemen double team at first and then move on to the second level. Hairston takes the DE out of the play. Levitre helps Wood with his block and then and goes and gets a LB, Wood takes care of the DT, Urbik makes the key block by absolutely destroying the other DT, and Pears picks up the other linebacker, and finally Mcentyre kicks out the first guy he sees on the right, which happens to be the DE. However, there are only 6 blockers and 7 Giant defenders in the box. Freddy needs to make 1 guy miss. http://i4.photobucke...kdown/snap1.jpg I circled the 2 combo blocks in green. Both Wood and Levitre and Urbik and Pears do a great job of comboing at the snap and then Pears and Levitre go and get a linebacker as well. But like I said before, what makes the play and opens the lane is Urbik just destroying the DT he is blocking. The free man circled in red is the guy that had Jackson in man coverage and is unblocked. http://i4.photobucke...kdown/snap2.jpg I circled Urbik in green again to show how far he moved his guy down the LOS. Also to be noticed is the great job Pears does in turning the LB and creating a huge hole for Jackson to run through. The red circle is the guy that was covering Jackson, he didn't really have that much of a shot at him as he was filling the gap he was supposed to, but Urbik's destruction in the middle leaves Jackson a huge hole, with only the safety in front of him http://i4.photobucke...kdown/snap3.jpg The rest is all Freddy, basically running away from everyone on his way to the end zone. Looking back on this... the Giants were in a pretty good situation at the start of the play to stop the run, but a great job by our OL gave Freddy a giant (pun intended) hole to run through I hope you guys liked this post... comments and thoughts welcomed. Just wanted to quickly add, that I had a pain of a time getting the pics in the actual post, so sorry about the links to them

missing Kyle Williams really hurts too

Giants barely blitzed last game... didn't have to. Guys are not spying on Jackson... they are just playing the middle of the field as a robber. Been saying this for weeks now If the Bills wanted time to get guys deep they could (max protect). But it is a futile effort b/c the WR's (besides SJ) really struggle to get open against press man coverage.

Judging by all the posts blaming the offense for the loss sunday, I would say that my post has some merit. And like you said... I did offer some comment on whether or not I thought the defense would be able to turn things around. This still is a message board right? Just because a team has injuries doesn't mean that they don't have to play well. Allowing 27 points is not playing well enough to win. Only 5 teams in the NFL allow 27 or more points a game, their record is 4-23 I also strongly disagree with your assertion that yards do not matter. Yardage differential has a huge amount of statistical significance on whether or not you win a game. The thing is that it also correlates with future performance as well... much better than turnovers caused. Top 5 defenses in yardage allowed/ game are a combined 18-9 While we are the #2 scoring team on offense, we are also the 23rd ranked scoring defense

what a steal for the Rams... basically a 5th rounder for a guy that led the NFL in receiving yards last year playing in the same offense (it was McDaniels offense in Den last year and he is OC in StL this year), he's gonna be money for the rest of the year in StL.

Guys, The offense is not the problem here... Scoring 24 points on the road against a quality football team should be enough to win. It is the defense plain and simple. The lack of a pass rush is hanging our secondary out to dry. We tried blitzing Eli yesterday, it did not work at all... Giants picked it up very well. I know we want to complain about the 2 picks... no QB makes 100% good throws, SJ was open on both plays. The 1st one I'm not 100% positive that it wasn't a back shoulder throw by Fitz, b/c there was a safety deep and perhaps SJ didn't read it right. The 2nd one just a terrible throw off the back foot. But the thing is, not all bad throws get picked... look at Eli's throw on 3rd down at the end of the game... McKelvin probably should have picked it. Just so happens that Fitz came up snake eyes today. I don't know what can be done about the pass rush... I just don't see the talent there... Edwards also hasn't shown me he can scheme up pressure like a Gregg Williams or Rex Ryan can. There will be days were the offense doesn't put up 30+ points, and when that happens the defense needs to just be average instead of bad like it has been most of the year. On a positive note... the rush defense looks much better, and I think we found another guy in Kellen Heard

BS on the Fitz's arm isn't strong enough garbage. Teams don't respect the Bills deep... until we start hitting them to keep them honest, they will keep cheating up. And with teams still cheating up, we are still able to run the ball and throw the ball pretty successfully. The offense is not the problem guys

Having 1 step is open in the NFL, having 2 steps (like the last INT) is wide open. Just sucks that both were picked instead of just incomplete.

Having CJ be able to lineup at WR or RB creates tons of matchup problems for the defense. If the personnel in the huddle is FJ, CJ, Chandler, Nelson and Stevie. What does the defense send out? Their base formation... then the Bills spread the field and have LB's on FJ and CJ. Or do they send out nickel, and then we have 5 OL and a TE blocking their 6 non-secondary players. This is why Spiller is going to be so valuable once he gets everything down. Give the kid time... he is plays tons better than last year And that doesn't even touch on the possibilities of having Brad Smith in the huddle instead of Nelson.... this is why our offense is so tough to prepare for. Imagine if Jones was healthy then it is Jones, Nelson, SJ, FJ, and CJ. B/c Nelson is used so much as a TE/WR hybrid it really becomes difficult b/c he is so good in the passing game.

While I think it is obvious that he is better at OLB... I understand why he did it. 1) It seemed like Gailey was trying to get his best 11 on the field. 2) Smaller pass rushers can often times get engulfed by big athletic OT's (Remember Corey Moore), so perhaps he could be a blitzing playmaker at ILB. He tried it for a couple months... didn't work out, so back to OLB. Kid has a long career ahead of him.

The cliche basically means that the defense is not making tackles behind/at/near to the line of scrimmage and that they are being made in the defensive backfield. In other words, the other team is gaining too many yards. Which is an accurate assessment of our defense right now

Like the previous poster said... it is against NFL rules. However, it is pretty common in European Soccer for teams to be owned by the people and have a Board of Directors.

Donte wasn't terrible, his mouth and his draft status just got him too much attention. He really was an athletic player that just couldn't get the mental side of the game down to be an impact player

After it all plays out, we'll probably be on the lower end of average as far as yards/play go... Philly and NE are fantastic offenses, Oakland is pretty good too. The turnovers though have been wonderful and have definitely saved us a few times. One stat I like is punts forced... (we are 16th)

Or is Cincy's pass defense doing well b/c other than Buffalo they went against: Colt McCoy Kyle Orton (with no Brandon Lloyd) Alex Smith Blaine Gabbert Not exactly a murderous row of QB's. Last year Cincy had an excellent defensive secondary, now w/ the exception of Leon Hall, it really isn't that good. Nate Clements?!?! he's their #2 corner It is the same reason guys can be less athletic guys can be successful in college and then bomb out in the pros. There is a minimum level of athleticism that is needed to be successful at the higher levels. It is why Stevie lasted until the 7th round. He has proven them wrong. The same thing w/ Anquan Boldin, he dropped b/c of fears that he wasn't athletic enough. I agreed for the most part with your post, but I just ask that you look at the film and notice that teams are not afraid to play lots of man to man against the Bills and then use a robber in the middle of the field. This is why David Nelson has been a non factor the past couple games. With a lack of threats on the outside teams can concentrate on taking away the short middle. Also look at New England... Wes Welker is an unstoppable WR, yet the Jets were able to put Revis on him b/c they did not fear the deep ball (Peter King has a good article about this in his MMQB) It is a good discussion, but you still do need those outside threats... it's why the Bills tried to throw deep against the Bengals, they had 1 on 1 on the outside, but we were unable to take advantage.

you are correct in your post... however, it is not just 40 time, it is quickness and suddenness in and out of breaks. We are not threatening at all at the WR position right now... when teams can play us man to man without problems, that is a very very bad thing. And that is exactly what the Bengals and Eagles did to us. The Jets are gonna do it too. Luckily we catch a break this week against a terrible Giants secondary which has just been destroyed by injuries as well.

As silly and ridiculous as it is... TO is actually a really good fit for our current problems. He has the physical talent that this team is sorely lacking at the WR position. And surprisingly he is very well liked by current team members, plus we are doing well right now and he is a terrific front-runner

they do switch between the 2... it seems like when they have the backup DL in they are more 4-3 and when they have the starters in they are more 3-4

1) The Bills defense has to get better against jump balls. The Raiders and now the Bengals have killed us by just throwing balls up to their WR and they have made plays on the balls that our DB's have been unable to make. ---> X's and O's point Bills play a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3 which leaves a safety in the middle of the field and CB's 1 on 1 on deep balls. Might be time to give more help over the top to our DB's against WR's that can go up and get it 2) The fact that Cincy was able to play press man against our WR's most a lot of the game was very troubling to me, it really highlighted the lack of natural talent we have at the WR position. Gailey is very good at scheming things up, but when Cincy went 1 on 1 against us we could not take advantage of it. 3) The lack of blitzing must be due to the fact that we do not have any confidence in our DB's. The few times we did blitz and Dalton's 1st read was not there, he looked very confused, the only reason I can guess that we did not keep it up was the fear that we would get burned. 4) I don't think Dalton played very well, just like I didn't think Campbell played that well either... big plays are killing our defense. 5) The OL and Fitz must be commended for the lack of sacks and most importantly lack of turnovers.

Maybin did his usual run around the pocket move, Flacco was in no danger until he held onto the ball for 5 seconds and decided to run outside the pocket. Maybin just happened to be there... even a blind squirrel finds a nut if you give him enough time