
All_Pro_Bills
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Chuck Pagano and Mike Smith are worse than Marrone
All_Pro_Bills replied to Dragonborn10's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
For sure punting or going for the 1st is a matter of playing field position but its also situational management. You're not going to punt for field position on 4th down from the opponents 41 yard line if you're trailing by 4 points with a minute left and no timeouts. We can all agree with that. And in the 1st quarter of a 3-3 game you might punt because its early and no need for taking the risk in most cases. This makes a lot of sense too. The issue most point out with coaches deciding to punt in opponent territory is situational. Take the Miami game. If I recall correctly, with something like 9:30 left and down two scores coach Marrone chose to punt on 4th and 6. 6 yards is a high risk and no gimme for certain. But in that situation you're down 2 scores, your offense is having red zone issues, you've only managed 3 FGs to that point and maybe you don't sniff the other side of the 50 for the rest of the game, you might get a possession two, and Miami's offense has been moving the ball well in the 2nd half so other than the opponent burning more clock what's the difference if they drive down the field from the 20 or the 40? So maybe you take a shot at that point in the game rather than punt? Not going for the 1st in that situation also gives off the vibe of being timid and scared and that you have no confidence in your offense to pick it up and no confidence in your defense to defend a shorter field. In the Thursday night game after that punt it sent me the message that the Bills had more or less conceded the game. -
Whaley a QB short and a WR too Early
All_Pro_Bills replied to patfitz's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I understand your viewpoint but I don't see teams game planning on defense for Beckham or Evans like some have done for Watkins. That in itself tells me how the professional coaching ranks view Watkins ability. And I also don't think we can conclude the trade was a mistake. It's one possible conclusion but all the information is not available yet. Does surrendering a #1 choice in 2015 really put this program back 2-4 years? Why? Because that pick could have been used on a franchise QB? Unless the Bills go down the drain here and finish 5-11 I think its a misconception that some sure thing QB is going to be there sitting and waiting to be picked in that draft slot. Who will be available at that draft slot when the pick's on the clock? We don't know yet but I'll wager no QB identified as a sure thing franchise QB will be there in round 1 when the Bills to Cleveland pick is up. Right now Mariota is the only QB worthy of top 5 consideration and it's certainly possible the prospects of other QB can improve before the draft. But he'll be off the board way before that pick is on the clock. At this point the Raiders control the board with the #1 slot and and given their record they look like a 'lock' for the top pick. The next guy up might be Winston if he declares but there's all kinds of red flags and lights flashing there. Maybe the Browns get a great player with that pick. And if they do so be it, that's the price of the deal. The Bills got a great player in Watkins. You can't get something for nothing. The mistake was not trading up for Watkins and giving up the 2015 #1. The mistake was believing EJ was the long term solution to the Bills QB problems based on his potential and his performance on the field to that point. And from the 'eye test' I do not understand how the teams front office and coaching staff, football professionals and talent evaluators, could have reached that conclusion based on his performance and what I saw as a lack of improvement over time. I certainly didn't see it but a lot of times it's just human nature that the fathers of a plan refuse to see their child (the plan) is not working out. -
You hit on a lot of topics here with some valid points. I won't comment on all of them. On Watkins I believe he'll turn out to be over and above the other WR's in the draft the Bills could have taken and I believe none of those other top rookies have made much of an impact to their teams in the win/loss column. And they're not getting constant #1 receiver attention like Watkins is from the defenses every weekend. I could argue Watkins has been instrumental in a few Bills wins. The catch over the middle in Detroit to set up the FG, the winning TD catch against the Vikings, some big plays against the Jets. He's also been hindered by rib and groin injuries which have impacted his performance. The big 'what if' is the draft choice they gave up to move up. As for Pegula I suspect he'll be 'all in' when it comes to doing whatever it takes to get the Bills turned around. I don't think he spent $1.4B in order to see his investment troll the bottom of the barrel forever. No doubt in my mind that things will turn around at the top here and quickly.
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Yes. The Bills aren't going to be bad enough to get into the top 5 so the potential to grab a bonafide 'franchise QB' with the surrendered 2015 1st round pick won't be there. Granted the bowl season and the combine might change the outlook but at this point I only see one QB, Mariota, that gets first round grades and he'll be off the board quickly. So the idea the Bills gave up a chance to grab another QB if EJ didn't work out is off the table. But the Browns should still get a good player at some position that will help them.
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Misconceptions about Terry Pegula
All_Pro_Bills replied to 1B4IDie's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
All we know to this point is that Terry & Kim Pegula purchased the Bills from the Wilson estate for $1.4B and have made a commitment to keep the team in Buffalo. We know of TP's work to date with the Sabres but comparing that experience with the Bills probably isn't going to give any clues of where things are headed with the Bills. We've heard about the potential hiring of some football 'consultant' but that is just specuation at the moment. My suspicion is the evaluation process of the front office, the coaching staff, adminstrative staff, game operations, the players, etc., is already underway but nothing is going to be made public prior to the end of the season. I think there's a good collective understanding of what ails the Bills on this board and I can't help but believe that TP/KP are observing some of the same things our fellow board members are seeing on and off the field. And that they will conclude the weaknesses that need to be addressed are consistent with what most identify here, OC, HQ, QB, OL, to name a few. I expect the Pegula's will not be hesitant as Mr. Wilson was to spend funds on top-tier coaches or delegate power and authority to competent personnel 'experts' that will be brought in to manage the front office. So all options are open and any previous conceptions candidates have had in the past with regards to ownership will no longer exist. Money/pay level shouldn't be an issue and mostly how attractive the job is will matter. This I would think would be the first steps and it would happen pretty quickly after the season unless there are candidates of playoff teams they want to consider. Around the New Year we should see things start to happen. -
Updated: The AFC Playoff Picture
All_Pro_Bills replied to 26CornerBlitz's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I'm resigned to the fact the Bills are close to certain of not going to the playoffs again this year. Sure, we can look at all the scenarios and hold out hope but you're just setting yourself up for more disappointment. The team is like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. Trust me, I won't move the ball when you try to kick it! They had their chance with the 2 games in 5 days against the Chiefs and the Dolphins and failed the test. Plain and simple they didn't answer the bell. -
Hypothetically lets say a QB throws a deep sideline pattern to his receiver launching the ball 50 yards down field but his receiver cuts off the pattern 25 yards downfield and runs a deep in vs. the fly. The ball lands at least 25 yards downfield beyond any receiver. Is that intentional grounding since no receiver is in the 'area'? The problem is the rule is inconsistent, arbitrary, randomly enforced, and subject to way too much individual interpretion by the officials. There may be no 'right' or 'wrong' in saying the call was correct or not because it is so subjective the term 'rule' should not even apply.
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However, its okay to throw the ball at the feet of a receiver 5 yards away from the QB, clearly in order to avoid a loss, avoid a sack and a hit, and its clearly intentional? And getting 'out of the pocket' and throwing the ball 10 yards out of bounds to the cheerleaders is okay too even though its clear intent to avoid a loss? I'm coming around to the idea that the entire rule should be eliminated since it requires the officials to determine intent and arbitarily set what 'in the area' means rather than some clear cut action like offsides or facemask penalties for example. But I do agree it was a stupid call by the OC. There was absolutely no way the Bills were going to convert that 3rd and long absent some defensive penalty resutling in a 1st and 10. Get 4-5 yards and give the punter some room to work might have been more prudent. Then at other times when you'd think being a little more aggessive would be the right playcall and they turtle up on the call. But I'm getting off topic and venting a little..
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My problem with intentional grounding is the ref's are trying to judge the QB's intent. Did Orton throw that ball specifically to avoid a loss or was the intent to attempt a completion to the receiver, in this case Watkins who cut inside rather than to the sideline. Given the reciever was still in the picture and the inside cut occured as the ball was released I'm not sure how you can be certain Orton was just throwing it away. The entire receiver in the area concept is pretty weak at times. As mentioned before the QB throws the ball at the feet of the lineman when a screen play gets blown up but since a receiver is 'in the area' its not grounding regardless of the fact we know he threw it away because the play was busted and he was surely avoiding a loss. Coleman's crew blew that call. That all said, the Bills were handed a wonderful opportunity to turn the tables when they recovered the ensuing fumble on the free kick but did nothing with that chance.
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Don't forget the hail mary pass interference call that followed placing the ball at the Bills 1. And I'll continue to hold Wade in high esteem for taking his team to the locker room in protest after NE scored the gift TD to win the game. The only extra point play I've seen in NFL history where there was no defense on the field. I remember the pricks had the stones to go for two there!
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I have no doubt there's a lot of bad calls by the officials and the Bills have more than their share of those bad calls go against them. But I don't think there's an organized effort to favor one team over another. Maybe individual officials have some sort of bias but its not institutionalized. Like for example, Coleman's crew always seems to screw the Bills. Last night the intentional grounding call was weak. But it actually would have worked out to the Bills advantage since they forced a fumble on the free kick and recovered the ball. The offense got 1 first down and then the missed FG. So the score could have been 12-12 or 16-12 in favor of the Bills if they would have actually took advantage of that opportunity. Some would say a 'good' team would have turned that misfortunate call into something positive, a tie or a lead. But they didn't. The PI call was terrible and I couldn't believe it was called. If that's the criteria for pass interference then I can point out 20 or so plays every game each and every weekend that should be called. What that official 'saw' is unclear and the timing of the call couldn't have been worse for the Bills. I think the Bills get way too many bad calls when measured against how many of these calls go against their opponents but I've concluded this team loses because they don't take advatage of their opportunities, don't score enough points, don't consistently make the big stop on defense, and make way too many major blunders to be contenders.
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Are you ready to admit Orton's the problem yet?
All_Pro_Bills replied to Oberyn's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Agree here. While Orton is better at this time than Manuel, neither seems to be the long term answer here based on performance to date. And those saying Orton isn't good enough are correct but the other option looked even worse earlier this season. I wasn't happy with Orton's performance the last two weeks. He's been ineffective, inaccurate, perhaps a little timid in the pocket, and hasn't produced results, which is measured by TD's on the board. But thinking this team would have been better than 5-5 at this point if they stuck with EJ seems doubtful to me given how his performance had regressed though the first 4 games. That said, I wouldn't be opposed to giving EJ another shot here at the remaining 6 games because this team has played themselves out of playoff contention the past 5 days. While he might never pan out it's worth another look at this point. This other issue is I think the entire offensive system and game planning of this team is dreadful so I'm not sure how you can completely and accurately judge the QB's given that anchor around their necks. -
Marrone Promised to be Innovative
All_Pro_Bills replied to 26CornerBlitz's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I liked the hire initially and I expected Marrone was going to bring a different culture and a fresh look to the team. But that hasn't happened. He completely lost me last night with the call to punt on 4th and 6 from the Miami 47 with 9:50 left trailing 19-9. At some point you need to be aggressive and take a risk. I'm 100% certain that Pegula is not going to 'cheap it' with the coaching search and selection process. So there's reason for optimism although that does nothing for us this season. We still have to suffer 6 more games of this crew. TP & KP won't make the same mistake here he did with the Sabres by letting the coach and GM hang around too long. We'll get somebody competent and good next season. A coach that can get more out of this same bunch. This team does not need a total rebuild, more like a re-load. We need a long-term solution at QB for sure. While I believe the HQ is a goner I'm not clear yet on the GM and the rest of the personnel guys.. -
When I saw it was Coleman's crew I knew we were screwed. Those two calls were dreadful (the grounding and Def. PI). Almost as dreadful as the Bills offense. The football Gods corrected the safety call when the Dolphins fumbled away the free kick but the Bills offense generated one first down and of course they then missed the FG attempt.
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I wouldn't lay 100% of the blame on Hackett because as some have stated there is more than enough 'blame' to go around. While the 2 fumbles were the most obvious errors there were plenty of other things here, penalties, dropped passes, missed reads on both sides of the ball, a fairly lousy day for Orton. But isn't the saying that 'a coaches job is to put his players in the best position to win' applicable? And if you know the offense, and the QB in particular is struggling after a strong opening drive, wouldn't it make sense to mix it up a little? My critique of the Bills offensive game plan is they rarely show a team a 'look' they might not be prepared for? How many specific plays has Hackett designed for Watkins, or for Spiller before he was hurt, or any other offensive player? The offensive game plan looks to me to be unimaginative plug and play simply substituting one player for another in the scheme without any subtle or obvious variations. I can think of a half-dozen ways to use Watkins given his speed, elusiveness, and strengths? So why can't Hackett attempt to use Watkins like the Seahawks and Jets have attempted to use Harvin for example. Get him more touches. How about Spiller as a bigger version of Sproles? Why no Mike Williams given his previously demonstrated 'red zone' abilities and the teams lack of success in that area? Unless you have an overwhelming talent level when you show 'good' defenses the look they expect they're going to stop you more times than not. Get them thinking and unsure rather than reading and reacting. I'll be extremely surprised if the Bills show the Dolphins 'D' anything new or different than they used in the Chiefs game. In a word - predictable.
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Out of the three that's the game I would have picked too. But that would leave the Bills with a 6-6 conference record (4-2 division, 4-0 with the NFC North) and likely at a disadvantage with any tie breakers. Dare I say the Bills best chance of getting to the playoffs might be going into NE tied with an 11-5 record or a game back. A Bills win in week 17 would give them the AFCE title based on a 1-1 split with the Pats and a 5-1 division record. For that to happen NE would need to lose 2/3 of these games. Maybe one at this point but I'm not sure I would go so far as to predict 2. That would imply an unexpected flop by the usual division champs. No doubt a a longshot at this point but If NE loses to the Colts and the Bills win tomorow night we might want to take another look. First the Bills need to take care of business tomorrow night and lately they seem to have the Dolphins 'number'. unday night) Lions home at Packers at Chargers (Sunday night) Dolphins home at Jets
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Starting on Sunday the fate of the Bills this season was going to be decided in the next 5 days. Get to 7-3 and they'd be in good shape, split and get to 6-4 they're still alive, lose both and end up at 5-5 and they're still mathematically alive but more or less finished for all practical purposes. Now we're at day 4 with a game tomorrow at Miami and a loss to KC on Sunday. The team sits at 5-4. To get to 10 wins and possibly qualify for the playoffs they need 5 wins - Miami, NY Jets, Cleveland, Oakland, and now with the KC loss one victory against either Denver, Green Bay, or New England. Which of those does anyone expect to win at this point to get to 10 wins? Losing to KC really messed up the math and a big problem with this team is not winning their home games.
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The goal should have been two things - run as much clock as possible to leave the Chiefs with as close to no time as possible and score a TD to take the lead. The possibility of throwing incomplete passes is not going to run the clock. If you don't care about running clock then you must trust the fickle hand of fate to help the Bills defense hold the Chiefs out of FG range with a little under 2 minutes left. Something I do not. You've got around 2 1/2 minutes with a 1st and 10 at the 15. A draw play or a swing pass to Brown could have been in the mix. And the empty backfield? That just tips the defense its a pass and the d-line tees off on the QB, especially one that is not very mobile. The other strategy would be to attempt the passes and kick a FG while depending on your D to hold them on the ensuing kickoff. That obviously wasn't in the mix. I admit its easy to place blame knowing the outcome but this team has failed miserably in the red zone all season long regardless of the opponent. So something fundamentally is lacking here whether its execution as some point to or play calling as others suggest this team is simply not getting into the endzone. They move the ball down to the 20 and hit a brick wall. You would have hoped they'd have worked through it during the bye week but no such luck.
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In criticizing the play calling we're always given the benefit of knowing the result in these kinds of situations. If they scored the go-ahead TD we'd all be singing a different tune so to speak. But that didn't happen and the problem is not this one particular failed scoring attempt but the red zone performance problem all season. This particular series of play calls repeating the pattern of past failures, the defintion of insanity as the saying goes. In this case, once the Bills got the ball down to the 15 they should have worked the clock as close as possible to a one possession game. Maybe you score and take the lead, maybe not, but you leave the Chiefs with as little time as possible assuming you go up 20-17. With about 2 1/2 minutes left, the 2-minute warning, and KC having a couple time outs the Bills had a potential total of 8 plays to run (assuming no penalties) from that point on the field to get the go-ahead TD. So abandoning the option to run didn't seem prudent. And watching the sequence of plays it appeared they were playing it like there was 30 seconds left with no timeouts. The play sequence to me looked like panic rather than some well thought out series of calls. A screen, a draw, maybe a Watkins reverse, something they hadn't shown yet, might have been considered.
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When do the phantom calls against us stop??
All_Pro_Bills replied to Big Turk's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The call on Chandler was very weak for sure (we see a lot worse on 100's of plays during the course of NFL play on any Sunday), the Bills seem to get these 'soft' calls at the most critical times of the games, and you wonder if the ref's were just looking to call something there but they lost to the Chiefs because they had 4 red zone trips and came away with 3 points and had two critical fumbles that led to 7 points for KC and cost the BIlls a sure TD that would have put them up 17-3. That would have changed the entire dynamic of the game. This team simply continues to make too many costly blunders to be a serious playoff contender. -
After reading the posts I can't argue with any. There are many 'goat's we've identified but while the names may change the actors in the show continue to play the same parts. For the most part, the Bills continue to lose games like this, against 'good' teams, because they alway commit some major blunders while not taking advantage of the opportunities they have during the course of the game. 3 points in 4 red zone trips I believe? Convert those 4 trips into 28 points and McKelvin's fumble is a minor inconvenience. And Lawsons missed plays are no big deal too. And if Chandler recovers Brown's fumble? These things happen to other teams but for some reason not the Bills. But the offense sputters to the finish and then the defense which plays so well and reliable all game finally caves in the crucial 4th quarter and gives up the big score to seal the loss. We've seen it so many times its become expected. And that's the frustrating part. You root and root and hope again and again only to end up with disappointment you know is coming at the end.
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I thought the same right after the game but you have to ask yourself why he was out there in the first place given the situation in both instances? I'm sure the answer will be it was his turn in the precious rotation. That said, I have to question the rationale for not having your best 11 out on defense in critical situations. Why was Hughes on the bench? Was he hurt? In this game the Bills beat themselves in the usual fashion. Untimely penalties, dropped passes, a couple of not unexpected gaffes by way of two fumbles. As soon as Brown got striped at the 2 and that ball went out of the back of the endzone I knew they were going to lose. And of course Chandler counldn't get control because that would have ruined the Bills blundering script.
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Bills 1.5 Point Underdogs to KC
All_Pro_Bills replied to Casey D's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I believe the Bills were favored in only 1 (against Minn) game of 8 all season so whether they are favored or not by the oddsmakers hasn't meant anything all season unless you gamble on the games. Against Chicago, Miami, Detroit, and New York they were underdogs by somehow 'beat' the odds. Official lines on the Bills games this year picked the winner correctly 50% of the time, the same as a coin flip and based on the odds makers and the money flow the Bills should be 1-7 this season.