JESSEFEFFER

All this began when the speculation about the preseason game 3 starter was ramping up. WGR hosts felt the need to trash EJ when callers suggested that it should be EJ, mostly in the name of a fair competition but also in an acknowledgement of how well EJ had showed in the prior outings. Wanted tp justify that it wouldn't happen since game 3 was so important to the #1 QB. Schopp got really annoyed with this and gave his "He's horrilble (terrible?)" X3 line. He then asked for someone to explain why EJ was getting so much support, I e-mailed this to him: Mike, You're an analytics proponent so here is an analytical case. I would assume that you are familiar with the concept of "quality start" for pitchers. Three or less earned runs and seven or more innings pitched. The idea being that the pitcher has given his team a decent chance to win. Well, apply this type of measure to NFL QBs. What to use as the criteria? I particlarly do not favor the NFL's passer rating as a comprehensive measure. It does not consider sacks, fumbles, rush yards gained nor the game context of when the stats it does track are acquired. I do favor ESPN's tQBR which was developed by Football Outsiders as a comprehensive measure of QB play. I am sure it has its flaws as any measure would have that tries to isolate a QB's play from that of the rest of the offense. The tQBR scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being midscale. I think it's fair to say this would also be a fair measure of a QB performance that gives his team a chance to win. In EJ's 14 starts, he hit 50+ 8 times. The Bills were 5 and 3 in those games with the 3 losses coming against NE (the SJ drop you mentioned earlier) Cle (EJ's 3rd quarter injury and all the bad things that happened after he left) and Atlanta (4th quarter and OT fumbles by SJ and Chandler.) This tells me that the 50+ measure is fair in that EJ played decently enough to give his team a chance but other factors made the result a loss. What is 8 of 14 as a measure? What does it say? Here are how some others stack up. Kyle Orton was 4 of 12 in 2014. This is the guy that was giving the Bills the best chance to win? Joe Flacco was 6 of 16 his rookie year and 9 of 16 in 2013, the year after the Super Bowl win. He starts 16 games every year so credit the Bills for identifying Tyrod Taylor as someone that could be a great QB candidate without much direct evidence. Matt Cassel is 6 of 18 in his last 3 years. As you said today, this is not compatible with "game manager." He would have to play much better to earn that title. I think "game manager" is the title he gets when projecting him as a successful QB in this offense. If they decide to start him, "game manager" is the hoped for outcome. I do not think it's racial. It's the best we could hope for from him. Geno Smith is 8 of 30 for his career. He and EJ have not had similar careers to date. Ryan Tannehill had 8, 8 and 7 of 16, respectively, in his 3 years although he has seen an improvement in that he has had fewer "crappy games." Derek Carr was 7 of 16 in 2014. Blake Bortles was 4 of 14 in 2014. Eli Manning was 9 of 16 in 2007, his 4th NFL season, with 3 games at <10. In 2013, he was 5 of 16. In 2014, Aaron Rodgers was 13 of 16 with 2 other games in the 40's and one other, against the Bills, at 12.4. So, what to think of EJ? I think he has played decently in more games than most would think. His last two games were disastrous but they were heavily influenced by 1) 30+ mph winds and poor protection and 2) extremely poor protection and JJ Watt. In that last game, EJ took 18 hits but only 2 sacks which is an odd, 9:1 ratio. The WRs were credited with 5 drops and the coaching staff called pass to run plays at an inexplicable 2:1 ratio. Even with all that, EJ had the Bills driving to get the lead when a gutless, PI nocall on Robert Woods (that's my opinion, but check it out--it was PI that lasted over 15 yards and probably for 2+ seconds) that lead to the int that sealed the loss. It's these last two games that have most heavily weighed in on how most percoieve EJ. Fans remember them quite well but back-to-back poor games are not uncommon, especially for QBs earlier in their careers. It's not the norm for a HC to bench them for a 4 of 12 talent like Kyle Orton. I see him as a guy that was considered a decent QB prospect that needed development. Give him Nate Hackett as his QB coach his rookie year, sign Kevin Kolb to be the template, mentor QB but see him get concussed out of the NFL in preseason, have him suffer 3 separate knee injuries which forced him to miss 6+ weeks of game prep practice, set him up behind an unsettled, deteriorating o-line which offered particularly poor protection up-the-middle and then ask him to play well with JJ Watt in his face and at his knees. With all these bad circumstances, EJ still managed to be 8 of 14 for "quality starts" in his brief career. A 6 and 8 career record which is really 6 and 7 when you consider that he did not finish the game in Cle (a baseball pitcher does not get credit for a loss like that.) A career 7 and 6 record if either of his teammates protected the ball from trailing defenders. When did patience become so obsolete? How many other QBs took 3 or 4 years in the league to show some progress toward the upper echelons of NFL QBs? This is actually the norm with a few notable exceptions. None of this says he has to start. It all says that he is worth keeping on the roster should they need to go 3 deep like they did in 2013. Retaining him while on his rookie contract to see if he will continue the improvement he has shown this preseason seems prudent. And maybe it says that it would be worth it to give him a chance in game action with the starting group. Regards, I never heard back from him.

Play fake to McCoy to left, quick screen to Sammy on the right for 11 yards. 17 first downs.

In my opnion, Matt Cassel as the #2 is the QB caddy. He works the game plan, practices and videotape sessions right beside Tyrod and is in his ear the most when Tyrod is not on the headset talking to the coaches. If anything happens to Tyrod, Matt is the choice to go in. Who starts the next game, if needed, is a mystery but I think it might be EJ. Rex's comment suggested that there is something atypical about the #2 / #3 QB roles. I have refrained from happy dances of any sort because we are still just guessing about how the coaching staff feels about any of these guys. They might like Tyrod as #1 but we have no clue as to the depth of that support. They may like Cassel as #2 but they certainly weren't prepping him to start with 4 series of live action and they certainly exposed themselves to losing him. In their minds, they obviously were ok with EJ at #2 but we have no idea what they want to see from him that he has yet to show or whether they really believe he can develop into a QB they could win with.

I like this game. I see a resemblance to Percy from The Green Mile. Here's another, Johnny Manziel reminded me of Archie from Rob Roy. Once I get these in my head it somehow changes how I think of them. In some cases, I think look-a-likes do fit a proper perception.

I'll play the game. In the following quote: What was going to follow the "....."? "We brought Matt Cassel back,” Ryan said in an unscheduled meeting with reporters. “We said all along we like our three quarterbacks which is obvious. For your depth chart purposes Matt will be two, EJ [Manuel] will be three, but that means…. As I have said from day one we like all three of the guys and we never want to lose anybody obviously. So that is why we made the decision we did." The "your depth chart" implies the one released to the media. The "but" implies that there is more to the depth chart than appearances. What that is, I do not know. But I will speculate for the fun of it. The Bills like to have Cassel with the ones in practices, running plays that are in the game plan. They think there is something of benefit to Tyrod to have Matt Cassel there with him during practices and reviewing the tape. EJ will run the scout team because it's a better look for the D to defend a QB that can challenge them more and good for EJ because it gives him more reps than what the typical #2 gets. If they were actually going to miss/replace Tyrod for any significant amount of time, I don't know what the hell happens then. But if the answer to that is EJ, then what you have is an atypical #2/#3 situation which seems to be what Rex was starting to say and then didn't finish. #2 and #3 for the purposes of your (the press release roster) roster, but the Bills' situation is not what it seems. Somehow.

I know feeling this all too well. So many games where the Bills never hit him even once. It was like he had the red, practice pinney on. Sure, he's a HOFer but he looks much different when harassed. They all do. Super Bowl 42 was the blueprint and the Bills have never really been able to follow it. Here's hoping.

Yep. Similar play last year where SD's Kendall Reyes tipped a ball intended for Sammy. It came in at his shoetops and certain Bills fans talked about EJ throwing another "dirt dart."

How often during the season would reporters even observe scout team work? I think not much. When observing in camp and EJ is running scout team what types of mistakes might you see? They are theoretically running their opponents offense against a superior defense. What should happen? Should EJ challenge the defense with downfield throws into tight/nonexistent windows or throw checkdowns, scramble/throw the ball away and take sacks? The latter does him nor the defense any good. Does the camp media even take this into account? I would read reports saying EJ's with the 3rd team against the #1 defense without any context. Running scout team may have been the coaching staffs' idea to speed up EJs decisions, make him better utilize space and time and force him to challenge defenders once they decided he wasn't in the running for the #1 job. Sort of like taking batting practice at 50 ft. to help increase bat speed. That's much of the problem with camp reports -- the lack of context. Sort of like EJs horrible 4th and 3 pass. Well, it was tipped and the majority of observers missed it. That sort of thing happens alot, especially when one is predisposed to ripping EJ.

I suspect that someone significant won't be at practice and he is having a pre emptive strike media strike to explain the reason why.

I don't get the M & T angle and find Tim Graham's tweet about it to be snide . The ad campaign has likely been in the works for weeks/months. The ad buys as well. Are the Bills supposed to tell them before they tell Fred? Are they supposed to give their sponsor some sort of heads' up about the possibility that it might happen weeks before it actually does? I doubt the time difference between when Fred was told and the rest of world found out is less than the time it's taking me to post this. In retrospect, cutting him in February would have been much better for all concerned.

That would be odd since EJ did get 2 1st downs by running and the 4th and 3 pass was tipped. EJ was making making accurate throws and good decisions but once he was no longer with the first team "the writing was on the wall." What that writing said is not clear though and to EJs credit, he never acted like he was done. As far as the OP goes, let's play a game of logic from EJ's POV. If I am not taking 1st team snaps, I am not really competiing to start. If I am not the starter, the Bills may decide against keepinng me on the roster. If I am not on the roster then I will be elsewhere. Have I spent any time contemplating where "elsewhere" might be or what it might mean to my career? Not really. I am focused on learning this offense and trying to perform well each and every chance I get, whatever the circumstances. I do not see a story there.

Let's assume this plays out as stated. Recall rex telling those covering Bills' training camp that he knew how the QB rotation looked but not to read too much into it. I guess they just couldn't help themselves and tried to do it anyways.

I tend to agree. Leave the training wheels on until we see if they can take the bicycle out of the driveway.

He will shred poor defenses that lack elite defenders. The Bills will be a matchup nightmare. I just hope he was keen awareness of everything that is going on around him and can avoid the big hits and injuries/turnovers that come with them.

I think Doug Marrone thought he made himself a hot coaching commodity with that 9th win. That and the $4m opt out made him think he had enough leverage to gain more power from Doug Whaley. He thought he had a strong hand but Terry Pegula didn't fold, i.e. give him everything he wanted.

Just got to this point in the thread and I am glad that someone else has posted on it. Marv once said that once someone got a reputation as an early riser they could sleep until noon. Same with EJ's accuracy. Every instance of the ball and receiver not meeting in time and space becomes evidence of what is generally believed to be the truth. Tipped balls, receivers bumped off their route or slipping on their break, a misread sight adjustment. It's been open season on EJ. Weird how that works.

I have seen this analysis far too often with regard to EJ. The instances of EJ's inaccuracy are greatly exaggerated. This particular pass was a TIPPED BALL! Just because Steve Tasker didn't see it does not mean that it wasn't.

The WGR host (Kollar?) was trying to "read the tea leaves" and predicting Cassel as the choice as implied by the Bills' QB usage throughout preseason. I say in a three man race, the normal rules don't apply. I will ask this, though. What NFL team plays their starter for only 4 series for an entire 4 game stretch of preseason? Matt Cassel is the measuring stick and Tyrod and EJ have been given every chance to show they have grown beyond what he offers. How could anyone say otherwise?

Serious question. As a scout team QB what do you think EJ's instructions were? Make safe throws, throw the ball away, scramble for a first down when pressured? Or did the coacing staff want him to throw into tight spaces, challenge the defenders even in tight coverage and see who can battle for the ball? Is the latter likely to make EJ look good in practice 100% of the time? Rex told the media more than once that he knew how the QB rotation appeared to them, but not to read too much into it. I wondered what that meant as it was rather enigmatic. Playing with overmatched offensive talent against the 1st team defense may have done both EJ and the D some good. Helped to speed up his decisions, get the ball out quicker and throw into small or nonexistent windows all the while letting defenders finish the plays by defending the ball. Maybe that's what was showing up on that last drive against the Browns.

He said that they'd keep their best 53 players on the roster and that he was pretty certain that would include 3 QBs. So is Simms 53 worthy?

Also, scout team reps vs. #1 are plays that aren't your own to players who are not likely to win their 1 on 1 matchups. That's alot of throws into tiny or nonexistent windows. When playing scout team, you pretty much have to execute the play to the end to do the defense any good. So, maybe when EJ struggles in that situation how could any casual observer infer much about his actual play? Rex said more than once that he knew how the QB pratice rotation looked to the observers but cautioned them to not read too much into it. Maybe they should have believed him.

I do not think the limited reps for the eventual starter mean that much in this game. No McCoy, Watkins, Woods, Harvin, Hogan. Maybe they could run their multiple TE stuff.

Yep.

They don't have the top 4 or 5 receivers to work with so it's not like they can build much timing with the guys that will actually play vs. the Colts. rex is probably aware of how much crap EJ has taken over the last 10 months, has seen him do and say all the right things, and wants to show him a little support. That might play well in the locker room and if messes with the mental minions of the media, all the better.