Cereal

Survival is now over! I guess we have four winners: Philo Beddoe, Stuntman and I all incorrectly chose SD over CLE this week, while ncbillsgirl incorrectly chose TEN over JAX. Congrats guys, I enjoyed it. In the Pick'em, "The Ryan Boys" has a decent lead on second-place ncbillsgirl and jupiterbills right now, 150 to 146.

I haven't seen it yet (Is there a way to see it without having cable or a TV?), but I was in the promo. I was completely oblivious as to what was going on at the time of filming, and just busted in with a bunch of venison to offer up to y'all.

It is interesting how this one works out. If it comes down to BUF, MIA, and DEN all at 9-7, the tiebreakers dictate: First we'd apply the division tiebreaker, which eliminates MIA (per previous discussion). For the next tiebreaker, BUF and DEN are still tied with 6-6 conference records. The next tiebreaker, "Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four", gets interesting. BUF's/DEN's common games are versus CIN, JAX, NE*, and OAK. Currently, BUF is 3-2 in those games, and DEN is 2-2 in those games. So if DEN gets to 9-7 via a win @KC and loss to OAK, then they're at 2-3 and BUF wins that tiebreaker. But, if DEN gets to 9-7 via a loss @KC and win over OAK, then they're at 3-2, and we have to move to the next tiebreaker. The next tiebreaker is Strength of Victory, and DEN would destroy BUF in that one. So, I guess I was just curious why the DEN@KC game doesn't matter, and I figured out why. How cool am I???!!! Two notes: Once again, I don't actually think all of this will happen; I just think it's neat. Also, I discovered that the 538 predictor is way better than ESPN's or NYT's: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/

Bills don't necessarily need the JAX win. They DO need CIN to beat Baltimore in Week 17, and either JAX or CIN to win this week. Good news though is that A.J. Green is expected to play this Saturday: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18332838/aj-green-cincinnati-bengals-says-play-five-weeks-hamstring-tear As you may recall, he hurt his hamstring on the second play from scrimmage versus da Bills.

Fantastic! Like so many other traditions, Kenny's ceremony didn't happen this way intentionally, and it doesn't have to make sense. Roll with it!

Nice, thanks for posting. That's my neck of the woods!

I'm going to the game... big question is whether I can survive until Midnight Mass after the whole day. Or, wait until Christmas morning. The last time was 2011, and the schedule was the same in 2011 except only one Christmas Day game rather than two: http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2011/REG16 That's a lotta stromboli!

You are correct on everything. (ESPN's Tiebreaker thing is broken.) Now, regarding SOV, check out my post here: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/189315-the-afc-playoff-picture/page-29?do=findComment&comment=4169517 Per my bolded part in that post: PIT and SD losses, as well as CIN and JAX victories, will help BUF to win the SOV tiebreaker over Miami. BUF actually needs help from CIN and potentially JAX anyway to pass other teams in the hunt. So, I think that if we got to the point where it's just BUF and MIA in the 9-7 tiebreaker, those pieces would ensure our SOV to be higher.

Pro Bowl selections apparently will be announced tonight? With 12.5% of the season remaining.

It's a really interesting trade-off, and it's tough to blame them for making the decisions they have: Securing near-certain financial well-being for your family versus Honoring your commitment to the college program and your teammates that enabled you to get to that point

Haha. The Panthers' playoff hopes REQUIRE that the 'Skins TIE one of their last two games. Chances are at 0.0004%. And you thought da Bills had it rough!!

Ok so if the above is correct, and we look at SOV: MIA and BUF both will have had 5 common wins (vs. CLE, NYJ, LA, SF, ARI) + 1 win against each other, so all those will be a wash. MIA's three unique wins will have been against NYJ, PIT, and SD (combined 18-24 as of now; NYJ will have one more loss to BUF in Week 17). BUF's three unique wins will have been against NE*, CIN, and JAX (combined 19-22-1 as of now; NE* will have one more win against MIA in Week 17). Now, if we ASSUME that NE* beats NYJ in Week 16, this would put MIA's SOV opponents at 18-26 and the Bills' SOV opponents at 21-22-1. In this scenario, MIA beats BUF on SOV only if: PIT and SD win out AND CIN and JAX (edit) lose out. (MIA's SOV opponents would then be 22-26, and BUF's SOV opponents would then be 21-26-1.) I actually think that we require at least one win from CIN and/or JAX just to get to this point anyway, so that would take care of BUF's SOV tiebreaker anyway once we got there! ... Summary: All of the above is ONLY for a two-team tiebreaker between BUF and MIA for that last AFC wildcard spot. It looks like BUF would almost certainly edge out MIA on the SOV tiebreaker. Of course, a lot of the other stuff that other posters mentioned above would have to happen, too, in order for MIA and BUF to be the ONLY AFC teams in the hunt to get to 9-7... ... Disclaimer: I don't actually think all of this would actually happen! But it is fun to look at the different scenarios. We're all here to have fun..... right...? Also, I think ESPN's Playoff Machine is broken, because it tells me that MIA would hold the tiebreaker over BUF based on win percentage in common games.

Am I correct if I say that: All of the possible scenarios of the Bills getting into the playoffs hinge on beating Miami in the Strength of Victory tiebreaker? If MIA and BUF both finish 9-7 overall, then they'd both be 3-3 in the division, 7-5 in common games, and 6-6 in the conference. The next tiebreaker is SOV. By the way, I see that Miami currently has the edge in SOV, .313 to the Bills' .306. Thanks...

I plan to be there, two vehicles this week. Hoping to be there ~8am but we'll see! Thanks again to both Hammer and Mead.

No. March 25 2014

Trentatively, yes....

Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuce

Joe Thomas has played nearly 10,000 consecutive snaps for the Browns: http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18212872/cleveland-browns-joe-thomas-9684-straight-shifts-factory-sadness

Agreed on both here... EJ would cost too much to keep - I'm not sure of the number off-hand. Gragg will be cheap, they should keep him around. Was sad to see him get injured in preseason.

I believe I will have three cars this Sunday; I'll post later on if that changes. Thanks!

Nice. I found your original poll from September 2. Looks like I voted 8-8 (and No Playoffs) both times! http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/188108-your-honest-prediction-for-the-bills-record-this-year/?do=findComment&comment=4027044

Will the team fly out to Oakland on Saturday evening, like they did against the Rams?

I never expected him to pan out as an NFL QB, even when he ended up getting drafted. His size/speed combo is undeniable though. Favorite game I've been at live:

Not disagreeing with you, but I bet we're a little bit biased, too, since he's been such a good player for the Bills.