Thurman#1

The wide receivers are absolutely partly responsible for the pure numbers of passes he threw into close coverage. Absolutely. But as for his percentage of accurate throws there, not so much. Agreed. He shows promise but still has a long way to go. Exactly. I'm still quite hopeful about his future, myself.

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/27/buffalo-bills-pro-football-focus-josh-allen-accuracy/ Some excerpts: "At PFF, one of our advanced metrics of tracking quarterback play is called adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and throws where the QB is hit on his release. Allen ranks last among qualified QBs with a 62.1 adjusted completion percentage, and when he’s under pressure, his adjusted completion percentage plummets to 45.2 percent (he’s the only QB at less than 57.0 percent in terms of adjusted completion percentage under pressure)." "He’s struggled with his accuracy when targeting players who are in tight coverage: His 39.0 adjusted completion percentage on throws to receivers who are either in tight coverage, have a defender closing in on them or have just a step of separation on their coverage defender also ranks last. "In relative terms, he’s also been one of the least efficient QBs when it comes to hitting the target when the receiver is either open or wide open, with his 85.0 adjusted completion percentage on those throws ranking 38th. His accuracy struggles don’t really favor any specific depth of the field either, they’ve persisted all over. Allen ranks 32ndamong QBs with an 82.1 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling no more than nine yards in the air; he ranks 37thwith a 52.9 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling between 10 and 19 yards in the air; and he ranks 32nd with a 32.4 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling 20 or more yards in the air. "In addition to adjusted completion percentage, one of our more advanced quarterback statistics at PFF involved a process in which we chart every throw for accuracy, allowing us to further break down a QBs ball placement beyond completion percentage to see who’s placing the ball accurately – hitting receivers in stride, leading them away from defenders – compared to passers who are getting catchable balls to their playmakers – making a receiver reach back across his body to catch a ball, taking away YAC opportunities – and those who are throwing uncatchable balls. "When we break down the throws from those 39 qualified QBs, Allen ranks 37th with 53.9 percent of his passes falling into the accurate bucket (the NFL average is 61.9 percent)." It should be noted they also loved his running and his downfield aggressiveness, as well as his arm strength and athleticism. Also had a McDermott quote expressing satisfaction with how he's developing. https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/24/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-quarterback-new-england-patriots/ Also a good article from Kubiak on how well he did against Belichick's defences. Kubiak's been consistently positive in saying that Josh is learning, a good thing to stress when dealing with a rookie's performance, and says it continued against the Pats.

He was incredibly average as a first and second-year player. That's extremely good. The Vikes let him go because of the injury.

It's a good question, though all you'll get are guesses, positive, negative and maybe a few more realistic ones. I did some research a few years back on successful rebuilds. Plenty of rebuilds are not successful, and so far we just don't know which will be the case here. But I looked at successful rebuilds going back 30 years or so and basically found that the lion's share of successful rebuilds took four years or more. The average was around 4.3 years if I remember correctly. Very few became obviously successful in three years. Bill Walsh was one of those glorious exceptions, though, winning an SB in his third year after 2-14 and 6-10 seasons. So it is theoretically possible, but unlikely. And the ones that did become really good teams in their third year tended to have brought in their QB before their first year. I know people don't want to hear this, but even with some real improvement next year, becoming a top ten team just isn't very likely so early.

Not buying that. It's been a rebuild since McDermott got here. But not a complete rebuild, you're right in that sense. They have avoided doing that, both years. But they have been rebuilding for two years. It took them two years to shed the cap problems they had but in 2017 they lost more than Watkins, Darby and Dareus. Robert Woods, Stephon Gilmore, Marquise Goodwin, Zach Brown and Robey-Coleman leap to mind, on top of Dareus, Watkins and Darby. That's the start of a cap-cleaning rebuild.

No, we have rebuilt twice in that 20 years, the Donahoe rebuild and the Nix rebuild. Both went forward without getting us a franchise QB. Both were failures, but all the other years have been reloading and reloading and "we can get there with Tyrod, we don't need to rebuild" repeated reloads. We have been consistently mediocre and worse for 20 years, but it has not been a 20 year rebuild.

No reason whatsoever to think so. why would he feel it necessary to go all in this year? He's made it clear from minute one that his main goals are long-term. His goal is to turn the team into one that challenges for a championship every year. And that it would take time. It's still extremely early in Beane's tenure. GMs take longer to evaluate than coaches. Beane'll be here a while. Probably three more seasons at a minimum unless the team absolutely self-destructs. There's no reason to think they will do so. Fair enough that this may be his only chance to be a GM. Of course, he might have more, he's a very young guy, but it's certainly possible this could be his last if he doesn't do well. But he's not going to give up the team's long-term good for next year. Partly because he is likely to be around for the next few years and will be judged much more on years when he's had three or four drafts and we can see how he puts together a team. 2018 wasn't about learning and seeing what you have. It was about rebuilding. The Pegulas know rebuilding, as we can see from the Sabres this year. They know that some rebuilds work and that others don't, but that the most important thing about a rebuild is coming out of it with a QB who shows the possibility of being a real franchise guy. Allen so far looks like he has that possibility. If they don't show any improvement, McDermott might well be on the hot seat for 2020. I expect improvement, myself. They had a ton of holes this year. Next year they'll have far fewer.

Kid yourself if you must, but this year was always going to be a bad one. Some fans like you felt we "were supposed to improve on last year," but nearly everyone else knew that in rebuilds you generally decline before you make progress. And whether you or any other fan feels he gets another year or not matters very little. It's what the Pegulas think and they love the guy. If there's any progress at all he's very likely to see a fourth year at least.

This might come as a shock, but some players don't reach free agency because they sign second contracts with the team that drafted them. If that happens here, getting him young will absolutely have made him a better draft prospect. True, but they are also not what McDermott needs to run his defense. Kuechly is an example of what McDermott is looking for, and he is not a "decent run stuffing MLB with ADEQUATE coverage skills."

How come you didn't mind when he spun the Detroit game positively, saying in that game he thought Josh looked like a QB who could beat people from the pocket? But then have big problems with me when I "qualify" things? Oh, yeah, things that are good about the Bills are OK, but things that aren't entirely positive must be attacked as having qualifiers. And Belichick feasts on rookie QBs.

Yeah, good luck with all of that. Yes, he's progressing. And that's great. But the team he's beaten from the pocket scored 13 points due to missing a field goal and an extra point. With luck in a year or two all of this excitement will be warranted.

Targets includes stuff like being the guy in the neighborhood where the QB throws it away, not to mention just bad throws that go ten feet over his head. It's not a good measure of how well a receiver is doing, partly for the reasons above and partly because it's half on the QB. 1st Q 1:06 Allen throws to Zay's knees, catch, 11 yards 1st Q 00:26 Allen with a terrible throw, should never have been thrown and was underthrown besides, is intercepted on the sidelines as a defender undercuts the route four yards in front of Zay, but luckily he is ruled out of bounds on a call that was not clear at all. 2nd Q 00:13 Long bomb, 52 yards past LOS, on the left side, with Allen taking a long shot near the end of the half. The CB, Slay, is in front of Jones on the inside, preventing Jones from getting past. Jones steps on Slay's foot and they both lose their balance. Slay starts to fall but leans back to knock it away. Jones couldn't leap or fight well after stepping on the foot. The throw was a bit inside, as Slay had inside leverage. 3rd Q 8:22 Zay has half a step but isn't wide open. The safety is coming over but won't get there in time, as Jones is running towards the pylon. Allen overthrows him about 30 yards downfield. 4th Q 3:54 Zay coming over the middle sixteen yards deep. Ball is high, Zay leaps. Tough ball, thrown hard and high but though it was far from an easy catch (and it could have been, the CB was behind and nobody was anywhere in front of Jones, it could have been thrown with touch) it was catchable. 4th 13:47 A 17 yard comeback on the right near the sideline. Good throw, knocked away. Slay was behind Jones as Jones stopped and grabbed Jones, stopping him from coming back towards the ball. Should've been a penalty, IMHO. So Zay got his hands on two of them. Not six. Zay looks - to me - like a young guy showing improvement and promise but hiccups. Much like Allen, really. Both of them need to improve, both of them have a chance to do so with time.

It doesn't apply to a rookie QB. Or any other QB. It's a team stat. How well the MLB plays or the field goal kicker kicks or the KR breaks a long return or fumbles has nothing to do with how well the QB is playing. It really is that simple. Wins are a team stat. Which is why the official name of the abbreviated "QB Record" is actually "Team record in games started by this QB (Regular season)". Coloring and italics mine, of course. If you want to know how well the QB is playing, you look at how well the QB is playing. The statistical measures are things like completion percentage, YPA, passer rating, attempts, completions, yards, TDs, INTs, sacks, running yards, and I'm sure you can think of a ton more. And no, they don't tell the whole story, but they're the best measure we have short of in-depth game film analysis of all his plays.

There have been some nice catches. DiMarco's catch against San Diego with 13:48 left in the third quarter was a really nice catch. He's all alone running straight, completely uncovered and Allen put the ball over the wrong shoulder. DiMarco spun, jumped and fully extended but didn't get enough of his hands on the ball to control it but caught the loose ball anyway as he fell. A really nice catch. The replay showed how tough it was. Your memory's letting you down a bit, Happy. In the Charger's game the TD to Benjamin at the end was very contested, with one guy reaching for the ball and another drilling Benjamin as he brings the ball in. Ah, I'd forgotten about the penalty on this one. 3rd quarter in Houston at 5:54, Benjamin highpoints a ball with a guy wrapped around him for a 44 yard gain, but there was an illegal formation penalty which nullified the gain. Zay Jones against the Pats, 4th quarter 8:31, the Pats #1, Jones, arrives as the catch is being made and tries to rip it out unsuccessfully. I'm sure there were more. Not that I'm arguing that the Bills receivers are good enough. But they're not often getting put into situations where the plays are contested. Benjamin was, but this year for whatever reason he wasn't hanging on to the ball the few times it was contested. It was frustrating as hell to see that.

Watch the play again and check out in front of Clay. There's nobody there. He drilled it in when he should have put some touch on it and led him more. It was not perfect at all. But certainly catchable.

And conversely, let's trade up and give up the for the chance to bring in Sammy Watkins (and trade after three years), a guy who has managed 3571 yards and 28 TDs over five years. Woo hooo! Oh, and let's throw in EJ Manuel, CJ Spiller, TJ Graham, James Hardy and Marquise Goodwin!! Those picks were all great investments too, paying huge dividends!!! The problem with those defensive guys wasn't that they were defensive guys. It was that they weren't very good. Or that the Bills were locked into a constant cycle of changing schemes and thereby destroying the fit some guys had here. At last we seem to have managed to find some regime stability for a while. Now we mostly need to do a good job drafting and bringing in players. It certainly seems likely that this year they'll stress the offense more than the defense. But that doesn't necessarily mean anything as far as specific moves they absolutely have to make. They're not tied down to anything specific, including an offensive first rounder. I mean, if I were betting, that's the way I'd bet. But, actually, I wouldn't bet on that. Nothing's definite.

DEs who can rush the passer are playmakers by any definition. Very very rarely is one non-QB rookie worth more than a small fraction of a win, and that certainly includes WRs and OLs. It's the improvement of the system as a whole and a bunch of the pieces within it that builds and combines to make additional wins. Thing about rookies is they get experience as time passes. They don't always stay rookies. Any personnel acquisition strategy based mostly on improving the team next year only is so deeply flawed as to be more or less useless. They'll undoubtedly bring in serviceable FAs at WR, OL and pass rusher. This'll allow them to value talent and potential over position in the draft. Again, yeah, the likelihood is probably WR or OL. But if the draft doesn't fall that way, forcing it would not be smart.

It's an important difference? Fine. Go over to the university and talk to other pedants there about it. In the meantime the point here is that Josh doesn't make the ball available within catching distance as often as other QBs do. See how I avoided your petty distinction there? For the third post in a row, by the way. But feel free to keep on with this. I'm talking football. If you feel the need to continue talking physics and linguistics, do so, but I just couldn't give a crap. I won't be listening.

How could I have ever accused you of making a pretentious distinction? What was I thinking? Good lord! Silly me. How 'bout this instead ... Josh doesn't hit what he's aiming at nearly as nearly as high a rate as other QBs. See what I'm getting at here? Hopefully, that will change and he will begin to hit what he's aiming at more often. You keep saying that he gives his receivers an opportunity to make a catch. Problem is he does so a lower percentage of the time than average NFL QBs. That's why so many laughably silly people who don't care about the distinction you're trying to make here say he's inaccurate.

I'm confusing accuracy and precision? Good lord, that is one pretentious distinction you're trying to make there. They both refer to the ball going where you want it to go. Problem is, right now Allen is not consistently either one as often as other NFL QBs. There are plenty of plays when Allen's recievers can make plays on the ball. Unfortunately, he throws a significantly higher percentage of balls than just about any other QB where the receivers can simply not make plays on the ball. And as you hint here but try to avoid saying, beyond that there are also a bunch of balls which could be more easily catchable, lead to more YAC and yield better results if they were placed better. This could all change. I hope it does. It seems that he'd started fixing his mechanics in the offseason but has returned to bad habits. Hopefully he can eventually get these issues addressed.

I'd be glad to admit I'm wrong. But first, I'd have to be wrong. I am wrong plenty of times. But this time, I'm just not. It was both their fault and he absolutely threw the ball behind and short of Clay. Clay chased it but by the time he got there, the ball was an inch or two off the ground and it's very hard to get your hands under the ball in that position. Pro QBs are supposed to make much better throws than that.

"Bottom line is Clay has to catch that ball," you say? Nah. Or rather, if you're going to say that, you'd have to add this: And the other bottom line is Allen has to throw a ball that is more catchable. And he simply didn't do that. No, he doesn't have to hit him in the numbers. But you absolutely can't throw the ball eight yards away from the guy and far too low. "How many QBs," you ask, "even when being set with their feet hit a guy right in the numbers from 50 yards away? Very few." Yeah, fair enough. Now ask, "How many QBs - pros - even when being set with their feet throwing from 50 yards away, throw it eight yards short and a bit behind as well"? And yeah, the answer is indeed, "Very few." Ah, I tried to download a snipped photo from the All-22 and got told I could only download 204 KB. Too bad. But the fact is that Clay is a yard or two in front of the end line and drifting right. Drifting right was a reasonable choice, as one Jet defender is caught between two Bills. At that moment he's right in front of Clay, but is sprinting left to try to cover Benjamin, who has three or four yards on the defender and is also stunningly wide open and headed towards the middle of the field where there is absolutely nobody. The ball was thrown from the 40 yard line to a yard in the end zone. It was thrown eight or so yards in front of Clay and forced him to change directions to go make the play. It was a bad throw, a very significantly bad throw. It forced Clay to attempt to make a very difficult play. After the game, each of them said it was his fault. They were both right. They share the blame. And I wish Allen was pretty accurate. It would be really nice if he was. But that simply hasn't been true, unfortunately. He throws a lot of nice balls, but a higher percentage of bad ones than just about any QB in the league. Yeah, yeah, you're right that completion percentage is far from a perfect gauge of accuracy, and that you have to look at the throws. I have. So have the pundits. The reason they say he's got accuracy problems is that he's got accuracy problems. It's not real difficult to comprehend. Does Allen need more time? Hey, you won't get me to argue there. He absolutely does. It's way too early to know what he's going to be. But it's not at all too early to know what he is thus far. And thus far he's a QB who's doing far better than expected in terms of running and is doing exactly as commonly expected in the pass game in terms of having some real highlights but not being very good overall. They expected a guy who was simply not consistently accurate, and that's what he's been.

Statistics don't win championships. But has there ever been a team that won a championship with bad statistics? Statistics reflect what happens. Good teams win championships, and they have good stats. Did the Lions outplay us statistically? Net offensive yards are almost exactly equal, 313 yards vs. 312, though the Lions did it on fewer plays. Can we say they outplayed us on offense? OK. Believe it or not they had far more penalty yards against them than we did, 4 for 81 vs. our 3 for 20. That's unusual and maybe encouraging for us. You could say both defenses were effective overall. Did they outplay us a bit? But how about special teams? The stats show Detroit as 0/1 on field goals. And 1/2 on extra points. That's pretty horrible, and was actually the difference on the day. And on those days when you would say that statistics show that the better team lost, it's likely that watching the game would show the same thing. Sometimes one team gets good bounces and the stats will show that. Where are the championship teams with bad stats? There are a few teams that show poor stats for one unit or sub-unit, like the passing offense of the 2000 Ravens, but that just reflects reality. The Ravens passing offense really was pretty bad. But their defense was one of the all-time greatest and their run game was damn good too. Generally the stats just reflect what happened.

Fascinating thing is that all but nobody has played the position. So of course the critics are mostly guys who haven't played it. So are most of his biggest supporters and most of the more neutral folks besides. Romo, Quinn and Miller aren't supporters. They're guys saying he's doing OK right now for where he is but that he has a long way to go. As to your main point, yeah, ex-QBs probably are a bit more likely to be kind to a QB, and especially one so young. If you listened to those QBs they probably shade positive on Tyrod too. Yeah, sure, there are a few like that. And probably an awful lot more, especially here in Buffalo, who are just the opposite, howling at the first good play and disappearing when things don't go well. The majority understand, though. It's too early to know.

Yup, went back and watched this. It was illegal. He flew forward because the hit was in the back. Dirty play, and not really borderline either.