Thurman#1

Yes, he certainly did produce in Carolina. But not much more than he did here. When you look at the numbers you're referencing (which are NOT the only important thing, far from it) those numbers were very low there. A bit lower here. But in terms of production per snap of the "glamor stats" people are looking for, it's all but statistically insignificant. The kind of thing where once or twice a year a DE chased a QB into Lotulelei. Or didn't. It also has to do with Carolina's offense being better which had teams throwing more regardless of what down it was, which gave Lotulelei more snaps that were passes with Carolina. And it's nonsense that he's not a disruptor. That's exactly what he is. A perfect example on the Jordan Phillips tackle-for-loss at the Bills two this last week when the center's need to go over and double Lotulelei opened a hole for Phillips to get through. Phillips did a terrific job there disrupting the play. So did Lotulelei in making Phillips' play possible. He disrupts a lot. Just not the way that you recognize. Doing a good job absorbing a double can be an impact play even if it's someone else who gets the tackle or turnover or hurry. And absorbing double teams is a huge help to teams with talented sack artists. We don't have enough of those right now, unfortunately, but other teams with space eaters manage to sack plenty. Especially as many space eaters, including Star, are on the bench on obvious passing downs when most sacks come. Whether a team uses a space eater doesn't necessarily tell you how they'll do with sacks. And Star is a great example of that. Carolina were close to the top of the league with Lotulelei on the team and it wasn't his roughly two sacks a year that made the difference. And defenses aren't judged by sacks. They're judged by how well they play defense, how well they limit the other team's offense by hook or by crook. Our defense was excellent last year and elite so far this year. Is that all on Star? Absolutely not. But has he played his part? Yup. As noted here before, if you look at the salary rankings of DTs, not all of the highest paid are space eaters. There are 1-techs, 3-techs, penetrators, five-tool guys like Aaron Donald, but there are also some space eaters. They're still greatly valued by some defenses. And as should be dazzlingly obvious by now, Again, I'm not arguing how well he's doing this year. I'm not convinced either way on that. He may have regressed as Joe B has said. And if so, that may be due to an injury or just regression. Hard to be sure with a guy doing such a dirty blue-collar task in the middle. Or not without extensive focused film study anyway.

Same old nonsense about Beane and the cap. The problem was already there before Beane was hired. Till they cut Tyrod they went into that season with around $20 mill in cap space, somewhere around 26th in the league. Beane didn't create the problem. Whaley did. It was already there. And it wasn't scheduled to get much better the next year. At the time they'd already committed a lot of money for that year too. So that's crap. Now, did he by cutting and trading a ton of guys both accumulate enough draft picks to trade up for Josh Allen and at the same time clear up vast amounts of cap space for future years partly by eliminating guys and partly by moving money forward from future years and thereby stacking up a ton of dead cap space? Yup. But that wasn't creating the problem. It was solving a cap that was clogged by sewage for years forward by running a drain snake through things, dislodging stuff that was going to be there for years and accelerating the progress of some money forward into 2018. It was flat-out smart. What he did was to go from 26th in the league in cap space to one of the teams with the most space and maneuverability. In a very short time. Despite the pain, it was worth it to scour out the clogged cap situation. Star has been living up to his contract. Not that the fans who only look at stats have noticed. But McDermott knew what he was getting, he'd seen Star in practice and the locker room for years and he wanted him and was willing to pay that for a space eater. Excellent space eaters, the best few, get that kind of money without building up a ton of stats. Star's teammates through the years have thanked him over and over for making getting tackles much easier for them by doing what he does. There's some question whether he's had a regression this year. He might be playing at a lower level, though it's hard to tell without extensive film study. But the Bills have been happy ... they got what they expected. That you expected more is irrelevant. The line is still gelling, which was to be expected. No way to know what they'll look like as they play together more but they're a ton better than last year despite not a one having ever played next to any of the guys they now do. Perhaps your problem is indeed what you say it is, that you're "admittedly biased to win now mode." They've made it as clear as glacier melt water that they're about consistency. They've said it again and again ... they want to build a team that's competitive year after year. Which is the smart way to go about it. If you're a win now guy, perhaps you should pick another franchise to follow that subscribes to your plan. The Redskins, for example. The Cowboys. There are others.

Thanks for the article. Interesting take. Having said that, there is some of it that I'm not really buying. He cites Gettleman, Dorsey and Brian Gaine as examples of GMs who got fired a bit earlier than normal. And those three situations were all somewhat peculiar. Gaine lost a power struggle with O'Brien. Gettleman seems to have been fired partly because the owner didn't like his inability to get along with people, in combination with his drop from an excellent Super Bowl season to a 6-10 that had a lot to do with weak areas in personnel that had been predictable before the season. "In interviews with more than a dozen team and league sources, the Observer learned that Gettleman’s brusque management style – which had made him unpopular with some Carolina players from his earliest days as GM – had begun to wear thin throughout the organization. Some staffers also didn’t like how Gettleman reshaped the roster following the 2015 Super Bowl season, leaving yawning gaps in the secondary and along the offensive line that were exposed during a 6-10 campaign last year." https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article162968358.html And here's another interesting excerpt from the same Charlotte Observer article on the firing, "Gettleman’s gruff manner was offset somewhat by assistant GM Brandon Beane, whose personable nature allowed him to serve as a go-between among the front office, coaching staff and locker room. Beane was considered the heir apparent for Gettleman’s job before he joined former Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott as the GM in Buffalo. Losing Beane put further strain on some of Gettleman’s work relationships, according to sources.Tolbert said Beane acted as a buffer for Gettleman. “Without a doubt,” he said. “As players we all love Beane. We all love being around him. He’s part of the reason we did what we did. I’m happy to have him in Buffalo now, I can tell you that much.” Dorsey was indeed fired after a 12-4 year, but from a team which had been 11-5 his first year. He got better quickly but stopped there, and for that improvement, many credit Andy Reid, which may be pretty reasonable. They were good when he got there and that 12-4 year they also lost their first playoff game. And again, Dorsey seems to have frustrated many chiefs staffers by going with his gut so far as to ignore scouts input on guys (Kevin Hogan being the big reported example). And yeah, you can say that Dorsey traded for and drafted for Mahomes, but Reid was just as much in on that decision. Salary cap problems hurt Dorsey too. And two months after picking Mahomes, that wasn't accepted as the brilliant move it now looks to have been. As for "swinging for the fences by moving draft capital isn't the awful move it used to be ..." yeah, maybe the article speaks to that but the teams trading away #1s seem to be teams with legit Super Bowl shots that year. Although you can argue that with Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Steelers, I think they thought they could still be in it after Week 2. And they also tend to be getting young guys who will play for a while and tend to be under contract for a year or two more. Which is why I think the people pushing for AJ Green and players like that are barking up the wrong tree. We'll see. As I say, though, interesting article. Made me think. Thanks for posting it.

Interesting reaction, Bill. Thanks. I'd argue it's not so much something to stay away from as it is something to use only sparingly. And yeah, as Bill noted below, our safeties are confident and smart enough to delay much longer than usual, sometimes even a bit after the snap, before making the moves that QBs can use as tells on what the D is playing. It's driven Brady, among others, crazy for a couple of years now, and I'm loving it. Thanks, all, for making this a great thread.

Thanks. I really liked it too.

"None of these guys know anything more than the casual fan when evaluating a QB," you say? That's nonsense. They know thousands of percent more. More in gigantic multiples. But it's true that despite knowing a ton more that picking a QB is such an extremely difficult thing to do that they can't do it perfectly or even close. And it's also almost certainly true that far more than fans think, how a QB is developed can make a huge difference. As can things like how getting big money and massive fame changes some guys.

Hunh? I mean, you're using the wrong word, it's doing a total rebuild, not tanking. But Cleveland has a long way to go before we can say this didn't work for them. They could easily be terrific next year. Or not. Dunno. But what you prove by pointing out teams whose rebuild failed isn't that rebuilding doesn't work. It's that sometimes rebuilding doesn't work. Which I think everyone is aware of. There are plenty of cases where it worked. And plenty where it didn't. And as for the guy who said fans hate rebuilding ... well, yeah. Thing is, fans also hate reloading mediocre teams year after year after year and producing more mediocrity. The Bills managed that for most of the playoff drought, but also rebuilt two times unsuccessfully. Either strategy can fail. But if your rebuild gets you a good QB, you've drastically upgraded your chances at being competitive.

Yup.

There really is no tanking in the NFL. It's a basketball word. Coaches and players are highly highly incentivized in every way to give everything they've got. The last thing they want to do is leave bad film behind. There's no tanking. There is rebuilding. And there's nothing wrong with it.

For the same result Star has given this year? Maybe. Possibly a few. But again, are his results this year due to an injury? Could he easily improve back up to rareified air? Yeah. Will he? Dunno. We don't know why he's having problems this year. For the same result he gave the last couple of years? For $4 mill? No. There just aren't. Or not unless they're on rookie contracts and everyone knows they're underpaid. It's the Parcells "Planet Theory." There are only a few guys on the planet that big and strong who can at the same time satisfy those physical demands. Very very few. And when you get a guy who's not on a rookie contract as a 1-technique for $4 mill, the reason he's so cheap is because he isn't good enough to do what Lotulelei has done up through last year. Yeah, you're wrong about that. They knew who he was. He did the same thing in Carolina, under McDermott. The reason he was brought in again to play in a McDermott defense under McDermott at $10 mill a year is very very simple. McDermott - the coach of an elite defense now for the second time in his career by the way - doesn't agree with you. He needs a guy who's very good at eating space in the middle of his defense, and he considers that function to be worth a great deal more money than you do. In fact, there are several DTs on second contracts as highly paid as Lotulelei or even higher, whose function is mostly to be a space eater. So you're wrong. You're right in that that's not what all $10 million DTs are paid to do. Plenty of those guys are 3-techs or 1-techs or rush specialists or penetrators. But it is exactly what several $10 million DTs are paid to do. The fact that you and some fans don't like that doesn't much enter into it. It is happening, right now, on several defenses in the NFL, defenses with coaches who are not unhappy about the situation. And you're wrong as well that Lotulelei had nothing to do with the Phillips sack. Phillips cut between the LG and the center. As you say, the center did indeed go double-team Star. And that was a major help to Phillips. The center had a much better blocking angle on Phillips, slightly inside him on a play when Phillips went slightly inside. The guard was outside him and had a much worse angle. It's why Phillips looked like he was running through a hole. He was, the hole created when the center went to block Star, the hole the guard couldn't get inside quickly enough to fill. And that's what happens when the opponent feels they have to double the space eater. It leaves other defenders with more advantageous situations. Sometimes someone like Phillips can take advantage. Did Phillips make a great play? Yup. Did the presence of Lotulelei holding his ground against a double help make that great play possible? Absolutely. Now, whether Lotulelei's productivity has fallen enough that he's no longer worth the money ... hey, that's a legitimate question.

A lot of this is nonsense. He hasn't been "one of the lowest rated dts in the league for years now." He just hasn't, except among fans who obsess on measureable stats. He's been doing what they want him to do at a high level for a long time. But there does seem to be some regression this year. He's not doing as well as he had. That is indeed a concern. Is it from injury? Something else we don't know? Is he just wearing down? Hard to know, but yeah, it's a concern. It's been a very good contract till now. McDermott knew what Star was. And gave him that contract. Because he needs a guy who does that in his defense, regardless of the pissing and moaning of fans who want numbers. But if Lotulelei's having problems, the contract might weigh against him if he's no longer living up to it.

It does seem Lotulelei isn't doing as well this year as he did last year. Is it an injury or something? Hard to know, but if it's just that he's wearing down, they'll be looking to replace him next season. But liability is probably too strong a word.

I already did, I think, but I'll try again. Hmm. Because they're good at what they do. And the teams recognize that.

It's not perfect. Nothing is. It's just very good. The PFF power rankings use an ELO system, which is much affected by strength of opposition, or perceived strength of opposition, really. Power rankings are always going to differ, whatever your system, as you can't correctly adjust for strength of schedule, ball bounces, etc. Especially fairly early in the season, it's hard to know what's real and what's not. Did the Bills look like the, for example, 7th best team in the league against the Dolphins? Again, how come a very large majority of NFL teams are buying their stuff if they're not good. A small tool in the toolbox? Fair enough. Some serious flaws? In power rankings, everyone does, especially this early. Me, I think the Bills should be higher. But disagreeing with one thing about PFF, or rather one particular system PFF uses for fun to predict the future, doesn't show a major problem.

We are 10th in run play percentage. Daboll is running more than average. We're passing 56.96% of the time, when the team that's 4th rather than 10th, Seattle, runs 53.12% of the time. That's not a large difference. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct IMO Daboll is doing a really good job.

Terrific article on HT work on deciding how much autonomy to give a young QB. https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2019/10/22/ruining-quarterbacks-2-0-zheng-he-admiral-james-stavridis-and-the-precarious-handling-of-young-quarterbacks/ Full title: Ruining Quarterbacks 2.0: Zheng He, Admiral James Stavridis and the Precarious Handling of Young Quarterbacks Two short excerpts from a fairly long and thoughtful article: First: "Those of us who cover the game, particularly from an evaluation standpoint, have devoted hours and hours to the concept of developing quarterbacks. Given the importance of the position, the hours spent studying the position, and the various ways teams have approached the development question, it is stunning that in the year 2019 we still do not have a firm grasp of the right approach to take when turning a young draft prospect into an upper-level quarterback talent. "With the depth of human knowledge at our disposal, we still cannot crack this code. While we can put men and women into space, prepare for a voyage to Mars, travel around the globe in hours and not years, and unlock the vast wealth of human knowledge by simply unlocking our phones, we cannot find and develop 32 people to play a single position in just one of humanity’s sports. It is almost unfathomable. "Now, in the past few years, this question seemed to lose its importance. Perhaps Sean McVay had cracked the code in a way that few could see coming. "Instead of developing the quarterback the old-fashioned way, by having him sit and learn and then start to learn by doing, and seeing if the QB can “sink or swim,” play him right away and hold his hand the entire way, McVay used the helmet radio rules in his favor, getting Jared Goff to the line of scrimmage early in the play clock so he can continue to relay information to his young passer. The technological version of a college quarterback peering at the sidelines to read big poster boards with funny pictures on them. McVay did not rely on his quarterback to make audibles and changes at the line of scrimmage, he would make them for him. "For a while, it worked. So much so that teams began to copy the approach. If you so much as waited in line for coffee with McVay you were linked to a head coaching job. Every owner of a team with a young quarterback wanted to find their McVay. People like Matt Nagy, Zac Taylor, and Matt LaFleur were given head coaching jobs. "This all seemed to make sense, and the economics of the day backed up this approach. In a piece I wrote for last year’s Pro Football Weekly draft preview I examined how teams were starting to handle their young passers. This is how Dan Hatman, a former NFL scout and the current Director of the Scouting Academy, crystalized the new world for me: 'We don’t have three years to develop QBs anymore. We want them to perform at a high level on their rookie contracts.' "So that means doing what you can to make them perform during that rookie window. If it means simplifying the offense and holding their hand every step of the way, that is what you do." and second ... "Last season the Los Angeles Rams seemed to be the offense and approach everyone wanted to emulate. But in a late-season game against the Detroit Lions—one that the Rams would win—Matt Patricia took the approach that McVay’s jet motion was eye candy. A distraction to draw the defense away from the true intent of the play. "So they ignored it. "That would be a model for teams who faced the Rams later that season, such as the Chicago Bears, the Philadelphia Eagles and of course the New England Patriots to follow. "Of course, Bill Belichick took things a step further. Since McVay insisted on feeding his quarterback information at the line of scrimmage, creating a situation where Goff had come to 'over-rely on constant and near-instant access to a higher authority,' Belichick severed the connection. "How? By calling two defensive looks in the huddle. One to show during the early part of the play clock, when McVay could still communicate with his quarterback, and the second to shift into after the rules mandate that the headset radio is turned off. "Forcing Goff to operate autonomously. "The Rams scored three points in that game. "Now this season the Rams and their offense continue to struggle. Other elements that teams saw the Patriots implement in Super Bowl 53 are being used against them now, from 6-1 fronts to late shifts to Cover 4 looks in the secondary. "Although there are more problems beyond the quarterback position, there is still a question as to whether Goff can be counted upon to function outside of what his coach puts in front of him. A similar situation is playing out in Chicago, where Nagy and his young quarterback Mitchell Trubisky are facing an offense at a crossroads. While the offense of a season ago worked well enough to make the team competitive, there are strong signs that when forced to work autonomously and outside simplified designs that defenses know to key on, Trubisky is going to struggle." This article was right in my wheelhouse. Hope you enjoy it as well.

Right now, yeah, that's a reasonable guess.

Most 300 yard games come in games where there are a lot of pass attempts. The Bills are well below average in attempts per game. And very few 300 yard come to QBs hitting none of their passes over 30 air yards yet this year. Which is Josh. He was 0 for 8 in over 30 air yard passes for the bye week, and I think after Miami, that's 0 for 9. https://theathletic.com/1277203/2019/10/08/zay-jones-trade-josh-allens-deep-ball-and-playoff-chances-thoughts-on-the-bills-at-the-bye/ You need chunk plays or to pass a lot. Neither is happening here.

Enough with the wins as a QB stat. They aren't. Wins and losses are a team stat. Judging a QB by whether a kicker nails a last-minute potential game-winner, or whether an MLB manages a drive-ending tackle or a CB catches or drops a potential pick-six ... it's just stupid. And more, Fourth Quarter Comebacks and Game-Winning Drives are wildly affected by circumstances. As has been pointed out many times before, Aaron Rodgers has averaged one 4th Quarter comeback per year. Exactly 1.0. Is it because he's not clutch? Or is it because the Packers are usually ahead going into the final quarter when he's playing QB? 1.0 4th quarter comebacks per year and around 1.3 Game Winning Drives per year. Rodgers has few of these because of the circumstances. Those stats are extremely dependent on situation and context. A better pair of stats would be something along the lines of: GWD percentage = Game-Winning Drives / Game-Winning Drive Chances and 4QC percentage = 4th Quarter Comebacks / 4th Quarter Comeback Chances But nobody's going to sift through this and check the situations for all the games and do the math for all the quarterbacks. Me either.

Not a single receiver in the league is getting 12 targets a game, and only four are getting 10 or over. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php On a team that is 18th in the league in pass attempts, they're throwing to Brown a lot. We're one of the run-heavier teams in the league (10th highest run:pass percentage) and that will only help Allen.

It always depends on how you use the phrase. Some people by a #1 mean what is often called "a true #1," generally a top 5 to 10 guy who consistently draws double teams and is obviously among the best in the league. Brown isn't one of those guys. But if you mean a guy who's the best WR on his team and is in the top 32 WRs in the league, he's absolutely doing that. He was an excellent pickup and seems to be among the top 20 or so in the league.

Makes total sense.

The amount of film? Yeah, um, no. They don't film games. And as for the details of what they're buying, great. If this isn't a guess, I'd love to see your link to the details of what the teams are buying.

If there's one thing that should be obvious from watching field goals this year it should be that they aren't automatic, even the close ones. Pressuring a FG isn't wasted effort. Fair enough that they should have been anticipating at least the possibility of a fake, though.

Nonsense. You're far from spot on here. Tre buries his shoulder in the ball carrier's hip, but he's coming at him from the side, not the front, which means he can't stop his momentum. His primary responsibility here was holding the edge, then making the tackle. In holding the edge he couldn't just run in with his hair on fire. It wasn't a great play but he did his job. Nobody was there to help, unfortunately.