Thurman#1

His pessimism, as you like to call it, is realism. And whatever else it is, it's not even close to the end of the spectrum, That would be the relatively few who believe he's very unlikely to ever be a decent QB. That's pessimism.

IMO they've always served a purpose for us, as a measuring stick, and that will be the most important thing they do for us.

It's easy to play that game if you assume that just because you call a run that we gain yardage. Life doesn't work that way. Very very (very) few Pats games over the past 15 years have been low-scoring street fights. It's only in hindsight that you can make that assumption. Over the years, teams that settle for FGs against the Pats lose by being outscored. There were a lot of plays where if the Bills had done better they'd have won. That's how it works in close games. There were also a lot of plays where if the Pats had done better they'd have won by more. I thought sure you would refer to the punt block. I have no problem with going pass on those two plays. Throw the ball away if rushed. Or make the field goal.

He's being hired as a geek. Not a tech geek, but a carnival geek. He can be expected to be a big personality and say kooky things.

Amari Cooper, maybe. Mack and Cooper went in a drastic rebuild. Which Cincy might do. I could see them trading him. I think it's very unlikely we'll see the Bills be the team to do that. As for the others you mention, they were traded because they didn't fit the process, which isn't only a Buffalo phenomena. Also, how many of those guys were 31 years old as Green is. The Bills did kick the tires on Brown. Would they have paid what it would have taken? Hard to say, but he is younger and more talented, and there used to be an argument that he had acted out only to get out of Pittsburgh, though that's now been shown not to be so.

No, you don't have to spend the money somewhere. If it's unspent, it's rolled over and added to our money next year. When they do spend it, they'll do it the way they've done everything so far ... according to their plan And they've made it very very clear what that plan is. It's long-term not short term. It's for consistency, not getting better this year. It's fiscally conservative. It doesn't include going after the higher level expensive FAs, and particularly not the older ones. It welcomes players who are available to play (and Green's last four years games played of 9, 16, 10 and oh-for-five so far this year show he's not available, which is the tendency of older guys anyway). They had $90 mill this year to throw at glittering objects and they didn't, they stuck to the plan. Expect that to continue. And all of those point to the fact that Green simply isn't the kind of guy who fits their plan. And their plan is NFL best practice. It's unlikely. They do need to raise the quality at WR. We'll probably see them do that next year, in ways that fit their plan.

Good point.

Putting limits on that is your own problem, it's an artificial constraint. Elite isn't about how something is done. It's about how well it's done. This defense is elite. Third in DVOA, third in yards, fourth in points allowed (more of a team stat than a defensive stat, but it falls in line with the others). Yards per drive, points per drive ... They all tell the same story. They're elite. So far, at least. It's early. But they look the part. They were very very good last year and they got better.

Was Dilfer a 2nd year man when he won that SB? Was he a gunslinger? More, Dilfer's 2000 Ravens had the 2nd ranked STs unit in the league that year, according to DVOA. Think the Bills end up near there this year? They had everything except that passing offense absolutely maximized. I think Josh can maybe do some real damage down the road, with luck and circumstance, assuming his development keeps going well over the next year or three (which is an awful lot to assume, but go with me for a minute). Just not yet.

You're a homer, you're unrealistic in looking at this offense and STs unit and the schedule late in the year and saying this. Some people love to spend the offseason kvetching and moaning. Expecting 12 wins minimum will be an excellent way to virtually guarantee that you have that chance and that everyone around you knows you're both irritating and nuts. 12 wins would be spectacular but is still highly unlikely. This season from minute one looked like we had an easy first half and a brutal second half, and that hasn't changed. This is a young team, still coming together. If Allen had developed faster, this might not have been such a completely wacked out position. But he didn't and it is. Expect improvement. We've seen it and it should continue, barring serious injuries.

Far far too early to know.

IMO, running is just the half of it. You've got to do both well, and mix them unpredictably. The Pats are damn good at stopping the run when they know it's coming.

It's not likely to matter anyway. They've made their goals clear. Those goals are not "getting as good as possible this year and maximizing our chances." They are building a team that can compete at the highest level consistently. That would just not likely include bringing in a guy who's approaching the end of his career and will cost a ton. The guy is 31 and he'll be expensive. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/a.j.-green-7719/# I wouldn't be surprised either way, if he gets traded or not. But I'd be quite surprised if he's traded to Buffalo. I'd expect WR to be one of their priorities again in the offseason.

Yeah, but that's nothing. I read on this board that he's going to be in the running for league MVP this year.

The change in personnel is not likely to be that significant at all. Whether improvement happens will come down to how much or how little Josh Allen keeps improving. Oh, and how well and when the O-line gels.

Yes, crow chomping is called for. Being close ... is being wrong. The reason so many, me included, told him he was very wrong was exactly that he predicted it would happen so early. I certainly didn't believe it would happen early in the season either. I was wrong about that. But if the original prediction had been that he would be traded in the first half of the season, I'd have disagreed much much less strongly. Probably one post, "it's unlikely," and gone. Having said that, who cares at this late date. He was wrong, but this thread didn't need to be necro-bumped.

No. The end. Not even a decent debate. And yet still people ask it every year.

I always did. Arena rock sucks. But now I don't like the guy himself, and yeah, that has lasted.

Again, points allowed is NOT a stat which isolates the defense. It's probably 30% offense and special teams. If Gore fumbles the opponent recovers on the Bills one and the defense holds and the opponent kicks an FG, "Points Allowed" says the defense allowed 3 points, when that couldn't be farther from the truth. If Allen throws a pick six, "Points Allowed" says the defense allowed seven points, which again could not be further from the truth. As you pointed out, the punt blocked for TD and the INTs that gave good field position were major factors in a lot of points that the Buffalo Bills have allowed. Is this defense for real? Yeah, absolutely. But Points Allowed is more of a team stat. Yards Allowed is the stat which best isolates defensive performance. According to yards allowed (and any stat after five games is going to suffer from not enough data and schedule bias) we're 3rd best. Yeah, we're damn good on defense.

It's more of a reflection of how QB stats have trended up consistently for a long long time, particularly total yards. Allen's tied for 18th in the NFL in yards. We've had guys in that area plenty of times over the years. We've also had guys with stats in the area of 26 TDs and 22 INTs. Which is not a good ratio. Though not so awful for a 2nd year guy. Fitzy has a year when he went 24 and 23 in Buffalo, for instance.

We aren't being ignored. At 4-1, people are watching.

Disagree. He hasn't played all that well, but his blocking has been absolutely excellent, and that doesn't happen without fire and passion. But he and Allen just don't appear to have established a good connection, for whatever reason.

I did jump on him, and this is correct. Alpha was wrong. You only get props if you're right.

Agreed we're still benefitting from a weak schedule, but this rebuild shows every sign of working, and working ahead of schedule.

Fairly surprising, as he was the #3, a starter. But if they did it there was a reason. I (loudly) guessed that if he was gone it would be after the season. I was wrong about that. I think the timing is surprising, but I really did guess wrong about the outcome here. Good luck to him except when he plays the Bills.