Thurman#1

Again, I don't think it's all that clear that Wood thinks he can. In the same Eric Wood video you mentioned, on Beasley's TD, Wood says, "... and Josh Allen operating out of an empty set is able to identify the coverage pre-snap, he does a great job of avoiding the rush, stepping up to his right and he finds just ..." Strangely, Eric doesn't mention Ford specifically on that play, in which it is Ford's man who forces Josh to do a great job of avoiding the rush. I hope the more optimistic folks here are right. If he can get better and start handling faster edge rushers better, it'd be great news for the Bills. It's early, maybe he can do it, but it looks to me more like a physical inability to move that quickly rather than anything technique-related. I could be wrong though.

I'm disagreeing with the whole idea of rolling out having been intended here or in any of the plays on that whole video. You said, "... it's less bolting from the pocket than the designed roll-out and secondary routes concepts from Mouse Davis run-and-shoot that Beasley ran at SMU under June Jones." But it wasn't a designed roll-out, none of the plays on video had any rollout of any kind, there was no mention of rolling out or any synonym or anything like it in the rest of the article, including all the stuff on June Jones. The play itself wasn't a designed rollout, it was a straight dropback with Josh being forced off his spot when Ford had trouble with the edge rush. Do you use the word "rollout" when the QB first moves up in the pocket underneath outside pressure and then runs wide? I certainly don't, and that would seem to me a misuse. Roll means a rounded shape, it implies that the QB runs or rolls around the outside of the pocket, not that he steps up and then escapes out the edge. What Josh did I would not call a rollout in any way shape or form, and it certainly wasn't designed. The dropback was straight back. He did escape the pocket, but nowhere in the Mouse Davis stuff did the QB even escape the pocket, nor is that idea mentioned in the text about Mouse. QB rollouts may be a part of the run-and-shoot - they're part of nearly every offense at times such as when protection is regularly breaking down and on certain plays - but neither of those college plays was a rollout, designed or not, nor did the QB leave the pocket. Here's June Jones, Beasley's coach who he learned the play from, breaking down that exact play. He does not mention escaping the pocket in any way, and in fact expects the QB to generally make his mind up and throw at just about the time in the play when Allen was being forced to leave his spot. He has a video. Again, no leaving the pocket and no mention of the possibility. Thanks for pointing me towards the "Chopping Wood" interview, it was nice. But I disagree that he said that anything very positive about Ford on that play out of the end zone you mention. He's really positive about the line as a whole, and then says Ford, "is able to drive DeMarcus Lawrence by." It's questionable whether he's saying anything more positive there than that Ford didn't quite let Allen get sacked. That's hardly "in a good way," to my ears. More like that with the help of Allen stepping up and ducking under, Ford didn't allow a sack, though he did allow the rusher to force Allen to leave his spot. Since the guard and center both did a great job, Allen was able to step up and then escape, but while Ford didn't allow a catastrophe, he also didn't do well.

I agree with your overall point, but don't think it's close to fair to evaluate the Beckham signing by his stats this year. Receiver stats are greatly affected by the QB and how well he's playing, and even the OL and how well they're protecting the QB. Beckham will be sensational again if he's in the right position, and I think he will be. But yeah, in free agency picking the low- to mid-range guys while building the core of your team through the draft does seem to be the strategy the teams that sustain excellence consistently use. Oh, and I agree with BillsVet above, the Brown and Beasley deals weren't team-friendly. They got what they could get. They got market value and weren't cheap. Oh, and Brady's no game manager. Not even close. Thank goodness he's no longer elite but he's still probably top seven or so but is dealing with an offense that doesn't have a Gronk or anyone but Edelman. And while he's always been terrific enough to overcome that, he's just really really good now and can't overcome the problems.

At $14 mill for the year? (Salary plus roster bonus) Nope. That's Allen Robinson - Stefon Diggs money. He's never produced at a level that would make that a sensible investment.

Yeah, but again, Baldy never specifically says much about Ford's pass pro. He says a lot about the Bills doing well, a lot about Allen knowing when to step up away from pressure and get outside (in these videos both times it happens he's been forced off the spot by Ford's man getting pressure by going around the edge). He's right that in the Dallas game, Ford got little help, but in the Denver game he did. And there's nothing wrong with that, but Baldy's complementing the Bills here. And when he say that the tackles were going mano-a-mano, toe to toe, that's Ford's strength. Nobody's had much success against Ford going toe to toe and bullrushing. We'll see down the line, but it sure looks to me like Ford's got a specific weakness concerning fast guys who can get around him. Turn down the sound on Baldy and just watch the video, and see if you don't agree.

I have to disagree with you here. There's not one single other play in all that video where the QB rolls out. And in the written explanation, Turner specifically says that the pressure on Allen prevents the original intended throw. That's not a rollout, it's an escape underneath a rusher who made it around the outside well enough to pressure Allen. "Allen is slightly under pressure just as Beasley makes eye contact with his QB, so he isn’t able to pull the trigger just yet. Due to the slight pressure from defensive end Michael Bennett and linebacker Jaylon Smith, Allen and Beasley activate the secondary route. The deep safety has his hips open to the wide side of the field because Allen appears to go into scramble mode. Allen sees Beasley working down the seam, the weakness in Cover 3, so Beasley works over the middle and creates a window for his QB." There's nothing in the whole article about rolling out. And all the SMU throws are from the pocket.

Yeah, Josh had all day on that play. Ford's guy starts to bull-rush, then backs way off and runs into the middle of the field as if he's in pass protection the middle short zone. Ford collapses in and helps by doubling the DT on that side.

"@BuffaloBills @dallascowboys @DDawkins @CodyFord had another outstanding performance on Thanksgiving. They are reaching a level of consistency in Pass Protection whereby they don't believe they need help and the results are more options for @JoshAllenQB #BaldysBreakdowns." I don't see anything there specific to Ford's pass protection. He's complementing the Bills OL's pass protection as a whole. He says some nice things about Ford in the audio, but again as Allen is forced by Ford's guy to step up. More, Baldinger clearly isn't claiming to have gone play-by-play there. He's giving his overall impression, though that's valuable, Baldy's smart. And it's pretty funny that he says that and then as an example shows a video of a different play where Ford is beaten around the edge, and Baldy says, "but the quarterback has a great feel ... when to step up," as Allen avoids the guy who got around Ford by stepping up and heading for the sideline. I like Baldinger, he's good with his video and his breakdowns.

LG? Ah, OK, fair enough. If that's what he meant, it makes a lot of sense to me, though I'm not sure between LG and RG for Ford. Ah, you did mean that. Sorry. Makes sense then. I don't see anyone talking about Nsekhe at RT. I think they might just keep him. Roc City Roller posted a list of FAs. That's where our next RT will likely come from, if it's not Nsekhe, IMO. I've always like Bulaga. Bulaga's last contract was a 5 year deal for $33.75 mill. If they like him, that's a kind of deal the Bills might consider.

Watching film doesn't require a guru. It's really pretty easy to tell what's going on. The tough part of watching film is putting in the time. If you're going to watch every play, as Joe does, you will end up spending an awful lot of time. And if you're going to watch every snap for every player, the time requirement becomes massive. And no, you can't understand what a guy was supposed to do on every single play. Occasionally it's not clear. For example, when a DL runs free between two unengaged OLs and gets a sack, whose fault was it? Which guy had the assignment. You don't know. But those situations don't come up all that often. Mostly it's easy to see, because though you don't have the play or the assignment, you have the benefit of hindsight. Right around 90% of plays are really pretty easy to understand with that hindsight. If you're not sure, you need to not blame anyone, and that is the way that PFF, Joe B., and any film-watcher worth his salt operates.

Ford to LT is the part of that that makes no sense. He hasn't got the mobility for RT, much less LT. We've got no problem at LT anyway. There's a guy there doing a good job. Expect Ford to be either at guard or maybe at RT if we can't get anyone better (Nsekhe?).

It's you. If you're talking about Baldinger's twitter, he did put up a video of a nice rep by Ford, but it was run blocking. Joe B hasn't had a problem with Ford's run blocking.

I didn't read the article, but the figures at the end there are way out of whack. After his first eight games in the league, Aaron Donald had three sacks and Oliver had one. Donald had 22 tackles and Oliver 20. Oliver had one pass defended. Donald had an absurd 11 tackles for loss, and Oliver only one. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OlivEd00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DonaAa00/gamelog/2014/ EDIT: I see, you compared Oliver's 12 game figures to Donald's (and Cox's and Atkins' and McCoy's) eight game figures. You know that's not exactly fair to Donald or the others, right? FURTHER EDIT: I see others have already picked up on this. Not that I'm not loving Oliver. He's been effective all year even though not putting up the big numbers early.

Oh, nice! Hadn't thought of him, and he's got the same type of terrific athletic ability. Best guess, IMO.

One of you said he was going to be fighting for league MVP this year, didn't he? Granted it seemed absolutely unhinged from minute one, but some of you that really get behind him really have said some quite nutty things. For those that haven't, fair enough.

9-3. But again, that is simply not a Josh Allen stat. It is a Buffalo Bills stat. It has an awful lot to do with how terrifically our defense is playing.

As many have pointed out, this is very much not true. To put it in perspective ... Allen is tied for 16th in the league in throwing TDs. Which is far from bad. Wilson tied for 9th as a rookie and 9th again as a soph. Those are absolutely not similar numbers, in terms of rankings or gross numbers. And those TD numbers came on 383 attempts as a rookie and 407 attempts the next for Wilson, while Allen has already thrown 366 passes. Allen has thrown a TD on 3.1% of his passes last year and 4.4% this year, while Wilson racked up TDs on 6.6% of his throws as a rook and 6.4% the next year. Josh is improving, and the outlook is pretty solid right now. But he certainly hasn't produced similar passing TDs numbers with Wilson's first two seasons.

"Bad" is seriously overstating it, even back when you posted this on 11/20. For a second-year guy, his stats have been OK. Probably better than that, in that they're trending upwards. He's 21st in passer rating among guys with 100 or more throws, and that just is not bad at all for a second-year man. And it's higher than that for nearly any stretch of games after the (admittedly awful) NE game. If there were indications that he'd reached his ceiling, it would be bad news. But results show just the opposite, that he trended up year on year and he's continued to do so through the course of this year. And ask Dallas, Denver or Miami if running is the only dangerous thing he does. They'll disagree. Teams started the year packing the box and daring Allen to beat them. Lately, he's done a good enough job of being productive in those situations that he's making game-planning much tougher on opposing DCs.

Every four games have star potential, really. Or maybe more like "the very first little fragment of a star being born" potential, anyway. Allen has to play well. Same as always. Maybe more people will become aware of it if more are watching. Bottom line, though, is that it takes consistency over a long period of time to become a star. Remember how Derek Carr was a star and then wasn't. Remember how Matt Schaub was a star and then wasn't. Neither did it for long enough or consistently enough. Four games is an eyeblink in a football career. It might be when people notice progress but that's only a big deal to people desperate to be noticed. Oh, and free agents will come here for the same reason 95% of those decisions are made ... money.

Man, are you guys sensitive! He's responding to this: "Hey Bill do you care to comment on Josh Allen absolutely demolishing teams or nah?" His response was very reasonable, and included "Josh played great today ..." He's right. Josh has had three very fine games, but teams will adjust and he'll have to adjust right back. Will he? The odds seem to be getting better, but it's still far too early to say for sure. And the people who said that QBR is a questionable metric are very correct, but he's also 23rd in passer rating a better metric. It's not a bad snapshot of how he's done over the season. But trending way up the last three games. Have to love that.

No particular reason to think we cut Star. He's not popular here on the boards, but he's very very popular at OBD. He's doing the job they want him doing, the job they signed him and valued his contract so high for. Would they cut him if they find someone who can do the job better and cheaper? Sure, same with everyone else on the team. But Star is getting the dirty job of space-eating done. He's part of the reason the LBs run free, part of a defense that's back nuzzling at the bubble of being elite.

Was that team torn down, when they made the playoffs five of the last six years and will certainly make it six out of seven this year? More, you can pretend that the Seahawks roster turnover was all about money, but that's what you'd be doing ... pretending. That team was riven by internal tensions. The defense essentially revolted, forcing them to get rid of many of their best players. Would they have had to get rid of some anyway, because of money issues? Yeah. But was some of that turnover performance-based and based on guys considering themselves above the team, guys like Sherman thinking he was smarter and more integral to the team than Carroll, forcing them to get rid of him? Yeah, it absolutely was. Yes, cap concerns were part of it. But only a part. No, you can't keep everyone. But yes, there are a core of guys, somewhere between maybe nine and twelve depending, that you can aim to keep, and yes that allows you to be successful over the long term if you're good at drafting, cap management and player acquisition generally. That's how teams like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, the Putz, the Pack, the Saints, the Seahawks and a few more stay competitive for a long time even if they have a bad year or two scattered here and there. Oh, and the Seahawks were a QB-driven team from the minute they made Russell Wilson the starter, even if many on the roster didn't fully understand that. Take him out, and they don't make those two Super Bowls. The Bills might be in a temporary sweet spot. Or not. Has NE's sweet spot been temporary? Seattle's? Pittsburgh's? And whether or not you are willing to call it a development year doesn't change the fact that it is one. This is a very very young team with a very very young QB. Top five, to me. Maybe top three or four. Not so much for the state of the cap, though, IMO. That's what the cap tends to look like this early in a (financially conservative, intelligently run) rebuild. But for putting together a roster that looks like it will be very competitive very soon. For drafting Allen, who is proceeding a bit ahead of schedule. For drafting Oliver w/out trading up, for drafting Singletary, and for suffering through the rebuild w/out bowing to the fans constant calls to sacrifice long-term success for (expensive) short-term gains.

9-3 is pretty great. Have there been more than a very few examples of negativity since they reached that record? There are always a few trolls and a few nuts but these last three games he has looked very nice indeed, and Bills fans are aware of it. Most posts that might get called negative aren't so much negative about Allen as they are negative about the nuts who feel he's already clearly better than Brady and Brees and the rest, the people who don't feel happy unless they're being wildly, unrealistically and loudly overoptimistic.

Pretty wrong. There's some ups and downs every year but there are plenty of teams that are consistently good, without Tom Brady. Their goal is to be competitive every year. They've gone towards that goal intelligently, without letting short-term concerns hijack their long-term aims. If Josh Allen turns out to be a top ten to twelve guy, he won't have to be a Tom Brady. He could make this team just what they intended it to be.

I'll worry about that after we beat the Ravens and the Pats. Which is quite unlikely. Love how we're playing, though.