Thurman#1

It has not. Still an excellent year this year but definitely not as good, as we knew even before seeing these stats. Last year's offensive DVOA was 23.8%, and 34.5 when weighted. This year's is 11.5%. Couldn't find the weighted. And an awful lot of that is on Allen. Who has been merely excellent instead of absolutely elite. Every receiver, tall or small, limits the throws you can attempt based on his strengths and weaknesses. Plenty of taller WRs limit the throws based on an ability to get separation that doesn't compare with guys like Diggs, McKenzie and Beasley. Our guys are consistently excellent at creating separation. That's just as good, if not better than height.

Yeah.

Unfortunately, our cap problems next year are pretty significant. Right now we've got $9.4M available next year. That'll change before the season but we're not going to see a lot of extra space. And we're only going to be able to roll over about $600K from this year's unspent cap. The Covid cap cuts really ruined a careful and thoughtful plan that Beane had put in place before the pandemic.

Star doesn't stand there. He goes side-to-side and clogs up the area being attacked really really well. And he's pushed backwards very rarely. He did indeed eat space like crazy. It's not a coincidence that when he was with the Panthers their defensive YPA was quite good and that it went directly into the dumper the minute he left for Buffalo. Nor is it a coincidence that the year before he came here and the year he opted out were the worst recent years for the Bills in defensive YPA, nor that they improved a lot at it when he was in. But availability matters.

Yeah, that seems about right. Less so if they keep Star. I'd thought that was the likelihood, but with his recent problems with availability and his insistence on remaining unvaxed, I'm now thinking it's pretty likely they won't bring him back next year. Star on the field has been a real plus for Buffalo, he's done what they brought him in to do. But availability is a key, and he has not been on the field this year as much as they needed him to be. That makes Phillips more important. Wouldn't be surprised to see them address the position in the draft as well.

NO. Third downs failure and success has nothing whatsoever to do with what you do on 4th down. And there's proof of that from this game. Here it is: The ESPN game summary shows the Bills as 7/12 on 3rd down efficiency. https://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401326569 And below are all Buffalo 3rd downs and the two fourth down attempts, also from ESPN. https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay/_/gameId/401326569 It's very easy to see that there are twelve 3rd down attempts. Those 12 absolutely DO include the two 3rd downs that preceded 4th down attempts. Again, as I said on the first page, the disparity mentioned in the OP results from one of the 4th down conversion attempts being called a NO PLAY and not ever actually occurring, because the Bills failed in the conversion, but the Falcons committed a penalty on the play, which the Bills accepted. The 4th down attempt was called a NO PLAY. It never officially happened. The Bills had twelve 3rd down attempts. If they didn't count 3rd down attempts followed by 4th down attempts, there would only be ten or eleven (because of the no play) attempts. Instead there are twelve, which is factually correct, there were actually 12 3rd down situations. 1) 3rd & 10 at ATL 30 (7:10 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to G.Davis to ATL 15 for 15 yards (S.Williams). 2) 3rd & 4 at ATL 9 (5:17 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to S.Diggs to ATL 4 for 5 yards (A.Terrell). 3) 3rd & 3 at ATL 3 (3:32 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to S.Diggs. 4th & Goal at ATL 3 (3:29 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to S.Diggs. PENALTY on ATL-A.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at ATL 3 - No Play. (The next play was a 1st and goal from the 1 yard line.) 4) 3rd & 10 at ATL 18 (2:15 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to G.Davis. Buffalo challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to G.Davis ran ob at ATL 8 for 10 yards. 5) 3rd & Goal at ATL 4 (0:35 - 1st) Josh Allen 4 Yard Rush T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-M.Haack. 6) 3rd & 7 at BUF 26 (9:20 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to S.Diggs to BUF 39 for 13 yards (M.Walker). 7) 3rd & 8 at ATL 10 (3:20 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right intended for C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by D.Harmon (F.Oluokun) at ATL -1. Touchback. BUF-S.Brown was injured during the play. S.Brown walks off. 08) 3rd & 7 at BUF 32 (14:14 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle intended for S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun (M.Walker) at BUF 43. F.Oluokun to BUF 25 for 18 yards (D.Dawkins). Pass tipped prior to INT. 9) 3rd & 3 at ATL 34 (8:53 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end to ATL 20 for 14 yards (K.Sheffield). 10) 3rd & 9 at ATL 28 (13:47 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to S.Diggs pushed ob at ATL 20 for 8 yards (A.Terrell). 4th & 1 at ATL 20 (13:47 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen right guard to ATL 18 for 2 yards (F.Oluokun). 11) 3rd & 1 at BUF 35 (3:21 - 4th) J.Allen up the middle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (G.Jarrett). BUF-R.Bates was injured during the play. 12) 3rd & 12 at BUF 46 (0:39 - 4th) J.Allen kneels to BUF 45 for -1 yards.

Context is missing from most stats. All that aren't twisted and complex beyond all reckoning, anyway. Still an excellent useful stat that tells a lot about passer performance, though. And that was a bad performance, or passing performance anyway. His running was excellent, as Shaw noted.. 4.62 yards per attempt. 42.31 completion percentage. The weather was bad, but Ryan competed 56.52%, for 8.57 YPA and 0 TDs and 0 INTs, and 197 yards, for an 84.9 passer rating. The conditions weren't impossible, and Ryan was getting a lot more pressure than Allen.

I suspect it's from the below sequence at about 3:32 in the 1st Q. We had a 4th and 3, which resulted in an incompletion. But there was a penalty against Atlanta. That counted as a no play, not a successful 4th down conversion, though it meant we were then in a 1st and goal at the 1. (7:10, 1st) 3rd and 10 @ ATL 30, 15 yard completion (5:17, 1st) 3rd and 4@ ATL 9, 5 yard completion (3:32, 1st) 3rd and 3 @ ATL 3, incomplete (3:29, 1st) 4th and 3@ ATL 3 (penalty, no play, conversion), resulting in 1st and goal at the 1 yard line.

It was to Beasley, who was open, though not by much. It's on the broadcast film, as the third replay angle, from midfield on the far side. I just went and watched it on my international NFLGamePass. But that's Allen's style. We love it when he throws dangerous ones that just get there because his arm is not really an accessory generally available to humans. And that means you have to put up with the dangerous ones that don't get there, as long as there aren't too many of them over the course of the season.

Yup, but it was two INTs that were tipped. Give me home. I don't worry about Allen in bad weather any more than good.

Yeah. This was a bad game, but it didn't look like weather was the problem at all.

Milano and Edmunds are both very good. That's really the bottom line. They have different roles. Both fill their roles really well. But there are some weirdos who have consistently filled these boards with their consistent needs to scapegoat a few specific Bills again and again. One of those is Edmunds. There's not much to admire about this group, but if you admire persistence in wildly ridiculous causes, you'll find a lot to admire with them. One example is finding many many creative ways to introduce new threads with the underlying theme being "I hate Tremaine and can't stop myself from saying it again and again."

Nah. Even if we go to the Super Bowl, this game will be mentioned rarely if ever. A nice win, though. The Falcons made it tough and we just refused to allow them to remain in the game with us.

Good stuff, Shaw. Thanks.

I think that guy struggled compared to the expectations for a first overall pick. But he still had 6.5 sacks as a rook. And how many other teams had the same chance as us? He went #30, didn't he? So 29 other teams had the same chance and passed on it. The correct answer is no, not yet, but improvement is needed.

49 - 50 yards in the air, and about 54 yards run by Owens. So most of it was not in the air. He threw it from 3-4 yards deep in the end zone and Owens caught it on the Bills 46. 49 yards in the air, maybe 50 if you want to give it the benefit of the doubt. 98 yards from scrimmage. 54 yards running. Most of it was not in the air. And Owens caught it at waist height. Was it an excellent throw? Yeah, certainly. But he had to put a lot of air under it to get it that far. In any case, Fitz did not have a very strong arm. He was a good man and a gutsy smart QB but he did not have a strong arm for an NFL QB.

Everyone should have "forgotten we have no run game." It was never true and it's even less so now as they seem to have remembered to use it and improved it. Daboll's been excellent, and they seem to have hit a groove now. The coaching has been very good here and continues to be so. Which is why people are sniffing around these guys. My one concern is that they can now interview guys early, even in playoff teams, and that could lead to divided attention. It'll be interesting to see how that all plays out. Change can be good? Yeah, I'm with you there. It'll depend on who we get, obviously, but the third-rounders would certainly help over the next couple of years.

When we see who plays next week, and how well they play, it'll be worth talking about.

A lot of people seem to feel that way. Thing is, the people who matter don't. They love the guy. There are always money issues, and it could certainly affect things. But as things stand, there's probably a 70 - 90% chance they re-sign him, somewhere in that area. He's the captain. They love him. They already picked up his option for $12.6M a year in a year when they are absolutely cash-strapped ($9M available in 2022 as of now, #26 in the league, but ). That's around how much he's likely to get, maybe $1 or $2M more, and they already made it clear they value him at least for the $12.6. For off-ball LBs $2M more would put him in the top four of average salary. That ought to be plenty and they might easily get him a bit cheaper as a home-town discount like the one Milano gave them. Anything could happen, he could demand the absolute top dollar he could get, or he could have issues with a new DL if Leslie leaves. But the likely outcome is that he'll be here long term. As an MLB.

That Wyatt Teller wasn't the Wyatt Teller he became. At the time he wasn't as good as those guys they kept. And even pro evaluators will make mistakes in predicting the future. Everyone does. Plenty of them, really. But how many other Wyatt Tellers have we cut or let go out of the many dozens cut each year? Could Antonio Williams be one of those moves that look bad at some point in the future? Sure. But with what we've seen so far, he wasn't as good in pass pro as they expect from a Bills RB. I did like the way he ran in the limited times we saw him last year. But that's not everything for a back. Guys do change, but they have a lot more info than we do.

You could definitely be right about Beasley getting his snaps back, but there's no question that he isn't nearly as effective against man coverage this year as he has been in the past. IMO that doesn't look like it's coming back. I think we'll see McK trend up. We'll see. Maybe I think so because I hope so. McD has showed a habit of being very slow to make changes away from experienced players during the year.

Yup. Exactly right. There are nuts on here constantly criticizing Beane and McDermott, when they're 22-9 this year and last. Many of them are not trolling, they genuinely believe this stuff. Of course people will criticise a coach who's 16-15 over the same span, particularly a 68 year-old. Is he losing it a bit? To some degree, probably he is. How much? Hard to say, but of course they're gonna start wondering.

It's more impressive than you make it sound there, what Belichick did. Brady right from year one was better than people were giving him credit for. But he wasn't what we now think of as Tom Brady till year six, and they won SBs when he was nowhere near what Allen is right now. And you can blame Belichick for those bad years in Cleveland but they are just as legitimately blamed on QBs who weren't even capable game managers and poor GMsmanship there. Brady was the bigger piece of those 6 Lombardis, IMO, but Belichick is partially responsible for turning him into the HOFer he clearly is. I expect the Pats in the third and fourth year of what is essentially in large part a rebuild to field a consistently competitive, good team, but maybe never win another Lombardi under Belichick, unless Jones improves a lot more than I expect him to.

Yup. It's normal. And particularly because it does indeed revive the was it Brady or Belichick thing. People, reasonably, wonder if he can do it without Tom. It's way too early to say he can't, but being put under the microscope? Reasonable. Nobody's saying he's going to be fired. Just that he deserves closer scrutiny. Hard to argue that. It's also the way their wins and losses lined up this year. They looked pretty bad early, and then really good as the season got down to brass tacks. It raised their expectations too much. This fan base - me too - are probably too excited after this win. They're too depressed. Makes sense. This was a huge game for both groups, and both knew it. Pats fans thought, "Hey, we're Buffalo's rivals again." This crushed that narrative. They're rightfully down.