Thurman#1

Yeah, but it's pretty much impossible to be right a lot. What they're doing is unbelievably difficult, just looking at it mathematically. The ones with inside knowledge can do a bit better, but they're not doing it claiming they're going to get them all right. As said above, it's just for entertainment. Fun to guess, fun to criticize guesses.

I'm not contradicting myself in the slightest. We ARE in the top half of playmaker talent, with a top three quarterback. And yet we ARE discussing receiver in the first two rounds, as would any team in our situation. We are in the top half. Very easily. But we want to get higher. For a team that has Josh Allen at QB and wants to depend mostly on the pass game it's really a very simple and obvious situation, not a contradiction at all. And the reason Crowder sat in the free-agent market is he doesn't fit the system, the roster or cap situation of many teams. No, he's not an elite guy, but yes, he's a very good slot receiver, well in the top half of slots and again probably close to the top quarter, particularly on our roster as it's constructed. Not every team values them so much, but we do.

I like Lloyd a lot. But I don't think you make a rookie your signal-caller in a year where you really think you're going for the Super Bowl.

No, the official combine time was 4.65 and he ran a slightly faster 4.62 at his pro day. Ran a faster 4.52 here after his pro day was cancelled, but that's private and therefore somewhat questionable. https://kslsports.com/431008/utahs-zack-moss-showcases-speed-during-private-workout-in-social-media-video/ There have been and still are a lot of successful backs who run around that time. No burners, of course, but successful guys.

I don't doubt for a second he can be a good player. Hard to say whether or not he will, but it absolutely could be. Like you, I think he's working like a dog this offseason. I'm sure he didn't like what happened last year. Singletary got significantly better last off-season by going to that RB coach he spent a lot of time with. I think Moss will do his version of the same thing, a serious program to better himself. Your point that Kromer's system might fit him better is interesting. Seems reasonable and makes me a bit more hopeful. He's more than JAG. There's a consistent trend on the net especially to say far too quickly that we have all the information we need and that we know what will happen, when generally we don't. I'm hopeful for him, though I'm sure he'd agree he's still got a lot to prove.

I can't imagine how you feel that way. Not in the top half? With Diggs, Davis, Knox and Crowder? That's absolutely the top half, no question. Top quarter? Now you've got an argument. But IMO they're going to pick a WR in the top two rounds if they can and we'll be much closer to the top at that point. We need speed. We also need more in the trenches.

I have a feeling very little of that happens, honestly.

We have fewer needs than pretty much anyone else in the league.

We've got Ed for two more years, with 2023 guaranteed at $10.7M. We'd save by extending him, unlike the others. So I think Knox - Edmunds - Oliver. Then have to give up on one of Poyer and Singletary, very probably to be fore-shadowed by who they bring in in the first four or so rounds this year. I can see them only bringing back two of them, though.

So, he didn't know Josh was on this team and that we were pretty good until a bunch of teams didn't really work out for him? I like the guy, but this is athlete-speak.

Yeah. They usually do this earlier before the draft. My guess is they have four or five or even a few more guys they are still interested in and as long as there are still a smorgasbord available, why hurry when as time passes prices tend to go down.

Right, the cash was a bit front-loaded, but the salaries were pretty even year to year. But there are plenty of reasons to re-structure outside signing someone. One is just to have money available if you need it suddenly. It could be they're signing someone, certainly, but doesn't have to be.

We only two choices: sign the contract the Bears structured to make uncomfortable for us, or let him go. We didn't write that contract. The Bears did.

Just turning that contract that the Bears structured to make it hard for us to bring him in. Turning that into a Bills-styled contract.

If "of the eligible players, only 28.5% (n = 59/207) remained in the league 3 years postinjury," is your headline here, you're right that it is a bit shocking, but less so when you remember that the average NFL career is 3 years. But yeah, they're not nothing. You can't just assume things will be hunky-dory automatically.

No, we traded one first round pick for Diggs, along with a 5th and a 6th in that year and a 4th the next, receiving a 7th that year. This is two 1st round picks plus a 3rd and a 5th. Terrible trade. For Diggs, we traded away: 2020 #22 2020 #155 2020 #201 2021 #134 and received the Vikes 2020 #239 For this new trade, we'd be trading away: 2022 #25 2022 #89 2023 1st 2023 5th Only for a franchise QB. That's the standard rule. Never trade away two firsts except for a franchise QB. Again, we have one. The analytics tell us that this kind of trade works out infrequently. Check "The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft" by Massey and Thaler. All the articles say the same thing as well. The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective article "How to Value Draft Picks" backs up Massey and Thaler. They all do, really.

Trading away Mahomes sounds idiotic till you realize we got Allen and Tre. A fantastic trade. The making of this team. Very nicely put.

Much too much. As a thought experiment, it's interesting. But you don't give up ths much except for a franchise QB. We've already got one. This would go down as a second Watkins trade.

Singletary was 3rd in the league in 2020. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing_advanced.htm His contact balance must've gotten worse. Not much worse, though, he was 11th in 2021, the next one after Harris there..

Draft an enforcer and return to 1950 in the wayback machine.

Thoughtful post, Bill. I do question the word "exceptional." Again, 13 guys in ten years, and at least one in eight of those ten years says it's not exceptional at all. It's actually a pretty frequent thing. It happens with great consistency. And that leaves out a few tackles moved to guard, with again a pretty good record when it happens. And one or two of them were drafted and immediately moved inside. Yet they're not being counted. I totally agree that if there's a CB or a WR that they have at the same grade as they have for any potential first round guards, of course they'll go with the other positions. You're unquestionably right that there is an opportunity cost in picking somebody at a less premium position. Equally, though, there is also an opportunity cost picking someone at a premium position who isn't as good as the guard they could have taken. There's an opportunity cost either way.

Dude, you seem desperate to kid yourself that I'm angry, upset ... this is like four or five posts in which you've desolately claimed that you think I'm angry, and that it's your post that caused it. The "uncalled for insult" was to your idea, not you. I called it stupid because it was stupid. And isn't it interesting that it's not only me who has hung on so long? This seems to mean a lot to you. Honestly, if some merkin on the internet whom I've never met and never expect to says something stupid, it just doesn't affect me. I mean, not in the slightest. But I'll tell you what, would it make you happy if I pretend? Anything for you. How's this? "Damn it. I'm just ferociously upset. I mean, something dumb was said on the internet!! When that happens, I just get so irate!! Why, I'm incandescent with rage that some stranger believes something nonsensical!! Irate doesn't even begin to say it. I'm seething. I'm incensed!! I'm apoplectic some guy on the internet believes some total poppycock!! I hate those meeces to pieces!!! Oh, the fury! I'm hacked off. I'm steamed up. I am registering umbrage. I'm so provoked that some marshmallow on the internet said something senseless, because that never happens. So when it does, oh the ire it generates in me." Hope that makes you feel better, dude. Makes me feel like a drama queen to play into this sad little fantasy here, but whatever, anything to get in the spirit. "Oh, oh!! So very very angry! I'm chafed. I'm stewing!! So vexed!! I'm nettled!!! I'm riled!! My anger is inflamed." Seems a weird fantasy you've got there, but whatever floats your dinghy.

Don't be sorry. You seem desperate to believe I'm angry or that you bothered me. You flatter yourself. Again, when I see stupid ideas posted, sometimes I point out how stupid they are. It's no bother at all.

Nah, I didn't see what extra picks do. I saw what extra picks do in one particular situation with one particular set of players. Why would I want more picks? I would want more picks because they can be used in many ways. One way is indeed to see if they make the roster and if they don't, then put them on the practice squad. They might be grabbed by someone. Or they might not. But the picks could also be used to trade up this year or to trade for picks next year to help us then. Teams can steal your picks, but plenty of times they don't get napped at all. Plus any of those picks might turn out to be better than they expected and make the roster. It happens. In fact, if it's an extra 3rd or 4th or something, he would likely easily make the roster.

He's only 48. This could work.