San Jose Bills Fan

The rest of the league.

:lol: That's funny. However, what I actually said was that I would take the bigger player only if he was also the better player. But by all means, continue to lust after bigger guys. :nana:

I agree that the Tide never recovered from their loss to Auburn.

That's why I often end up rewinding plays and viewing them a few times. It's hard (for me anyhow) to follow the ball/play and the O-line action at the same time.

Mike Munchak was fired by the Titans about an hour ago.

Jim there are two debates on this subject. 1) Should the Bills draft another QB highly? 2) Will the Bills draft another QB highly? A surprising number of people are in favor of the idea of drafting a QB highly but very few people think it's gonna happen. There's no question that the NFL has changed enough that it's a more viable possibility than ever before but the fact remains that it has been a very rare occurrence. Just recently players like Bradford, Gabbert, Ponder, and Locker were given multiple years to develop. For better or worse.

In fairness that was a concern people had about Alshon Jeffrey as well. What concerns me about Evans (and I've only seen one highlight package so far) is that he always seems to line up wide to the right side. It seemed like he was always running the same 2-3 routes.

Eagles -2.5 Colts -2 Bengals -7 49ers -3 The pick I feel least sure about is Chargers at Bengals.

I know it's fairly meaningless but I thought it would be fun to run the numbers and see what came up. Statistics are limited. The list was to provide data, perspective. Believe me I harbor no illusions that EJ is in the same class as Andrew Luck. On the other hand he's not as horrible as a lot of people here want to make him out to be. And again, passer rating while not infallible, is one stat that people can't be dismissive of: http://en.wikipedia....i/Passer_rating In 2011, CNNSI published an article by Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts highlighting the importance of passer rating in determining a team's success.[6] "Put most simply," the article states, "you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation of victory to passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner. [...] Few, if any, are more indicative of wins and losses than passer rating. Teams that posted a higher passer rating went 203-53 (.793) in 2010and an incredible 151-29 (.839) after Week 5." Byrne made an expanded defense of the passer rating and its importance for the Pro Football Researchers Association in 2012.[7] The study noted that of the eight teams since 1940 to lead the league in both offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating, all won championships.[8] Same with passer rating differential: http://sportsillustr...g.differential/ "The Most Important Stat in Football"

Rookie 1st Round QBs Pre- 2010: Matt Ryan 87.7 Joe Flacco 80.3 Matt Leinart 74.0 Vince Young 66.7 Mark Sanchez 63.0 Matthew Stafford 61.0 Josh Freeman 59.8 Brady Quinn 56.8 Jamarcus Russell 55.9 You might be onto something.

Rookie 1st Round QBs since 2010: Robert Griffin III: 102.4 (an NFL record) Cam Newton: 84.5 Tim Tebow 82.1 EJ Manuel 77.7 Andrew Luck 76.5 Sam Bradford 76.5 Ryan Tannehill 76.1 Jake Locker 74.0 Brandon Weeden 72.6 Christian Ponder 70.1 Blaine Gabbert 65.4

I never said EJ had a great year, I said he had a very good year for a rookie. Also, I have no problem saying Glennon had the better rookie season. It would be silly to argue otherwise. But I still believe EJ has major upside and certainly there's nothing guaranteeing that Glennon will have a better career. My only point is that I think many people on this board are very inaccurate in their view of how a rookie QB is supposed to perform. Even to this very day, most rookie QBs really suck. The statistics certainly show that EJ didn't suck and to my eye he didn't suck. I think the Atlanta game in Toronto is a really good Rorschach Test for EJ. I thought he had a few rough moments but overall played really well. He threw for a TD, he ran for a TD, he didn't throw a pick. He completed passes to 6 different receivers and he had the Bills driving in the 4th quarter before Stevie fumbled and again in OT when Chandler fumbled. Yet there are people on this board who state that EJ played poorly against Atlanta. That's amazing to me.

And was Kelly a true rookie when he entered the NFL? Take the data I provided for what it's worth. If you're gonna tell me it's worthless, I'm gonna tell you you're way off. You can quibble all you want but EJ had the 10th best rookie season in the last 22 years. Neither of us selected the criteria. Split as many hairs as you want. And while you're at it, feel free to show me data which proves that EJ's a "4th round talent." I'm always up for an honest and objective debate. Yes, I edited it because I was addressing DJP. Sorry. BTW, as I keep reminding people, I've posted several times that the Bills should consider drafting another QB. Statistics are not the be-all, end-all. I watch the games too, just like you. As for Passer Rating, it has been pointed out recently here that Passer Rating is a very high indicator of success and that Passer Rating Differential is arguably the metric with the greatest accuracy for team success. http://en.wikipedia....i/Passer_rating In 2011, CNNSI published an article by Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts highlighting the importance of passer rating in determining a team's success.[6] "Put most simply," the article states, "you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation of victory to passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner. [...] Few, if any, are more indicative of wins and losses than passer rating. Teams that posted a higher passer rating went 203-53 (.793) in 2010 and an incredible 151-29 (.839) after Week 5." Byrne made an expanded defense of the passer rating and its importance for the Pro Football Researchers Association in 2012.[7] The study noted that of the eight teams since 1940 to lead the league in both offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating, all won championships.[8] http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/06/23/most.important.stat.passer.rating.differential/ "The Most Important Stat in Football"

This is kind of the equivalent of not drafting the best linebacker in the nation because he doesn't weigh 260 pounds. Smart personnel men only use size as a tie-breaker. It's never the first consideration.

My post was in response to several of your posts, but particularly to you saying "Honestly, you could make a strong argument that the Bills took the guy with no future LAST year when they took a 4th round QB in round one out of need." In the context of statistical facts, EJ had a very good rookie season. Particularly in view of having marginal receiving weapons, an offensive line which regressed, one running back who isn't explosive and another running back who is explosive and little else. Also EJ's injuries hurt his development. And in spite of all this, he had a very good rookie season. Here are all the QBs drafted in the first round since 2009: Matthew Stafford 1st overall 2009 Mark Sanchez 5th overall 2009 Josh Freeman 17th overall 2009 Sam Bradford 1st overall 2010 Tim Tebow 25th overall 2010 Cam Newton 1st overall 2011 Jake Locker 8th overall 2011 Blaine Gabbert 10th overall 2011 Christian Ponder 12th overall 2011 Andrew Luck 1st overall 2012 Robert Griffin III 2nd overall 2012 Ryan Tannehill 8th overall 2012 Brandon Weeden 22nd overall 2012 It seems like people who criticize EJ are not being fair and objective. Oh. I see now. Never mind.

That actually strengthens the argument in favor of Manuel. His rookie season was compared to a veteran's season.

Yep. EJ Manuel, 77.7

I know you're on a roll but a little factual information is probably in order here. According to this list, EJ Manuel just completed (statistically) the 10th best rookie season by any rookie QB since 1992. His 77.7 passer rating puts him between Jeff Garcia and Carson Palmer. http://www.sportingc...t-20-years.aspx FWIW, here's what happened last year when EJ went head to head with Tajh Boyd. http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=322660052 EJ led Florida State from deficits 3 times in the Seminoles victory. EJ was clearly the better QB that night, head-to-head.

He's like a falcon out there. Anything in the air is his.

Huge Michigan fan, so yeah!

What a play by Boyd and Watkins. Wow.

If the Bills stay put, they'll get a premier talent.

Fair enough. But I would compare Leodis' season to that of the other cornerbacks. As for Byrd, he picked up steam as his season progressed but his game was not flawless by any means. I still say make him the highest-paid safety in the league but that's not what we're discussing. As for Mario, I remain fairly lukewarm on his impact and I don't think he's one of the top 4 DEs in the NFL. JMO.

Surely you must be kidding?

I was just alluding to his first name being Ha-Ha.