OK so I thought Edwards wasn't throwing to his WR's

[Ray]

No change in gameplan just the change in QB with everything else the same which is a wonderful experiement as you just change one thing and violla.....you have a QB throwing to the WRs. He did have at least three drops yesterday and the guy can make plays. He is not Tom Brady but when the opportunity was there to make a play he made it.

I think they can actually capitalize on his very good mobility as well......he is also smart getting to the line quickly on short yardage situations and getting 1st downs.

Hey, the guy is 5-0 in his last 5 games so he is winning.

It is just so nice to see Dereck Fine not being our go to receiver

[billsfreak]

Actually he wanted to throw to his WRs more, but he was running for his life on most plays. Kinda hard to let a play develop when you are getting drilled into the turf on every other play. Alot more goes into a long downfield pass than the QB and WR, it takes blocking up front too.

[Mr. WEO]

Better to look at targets, not completions. That helps account for drops and both QBs' poor accuracy, and just distill it down to decision-making. Luckily, espn.com's new box scores have targets in them, so it's pretty easy to add them up. For the Jets game, I went through the play-by-play and just counted a target every time it said a pass was intended for whoever. I probably wound up being off by 1 or 2, but my count should be close enough for these purposes. Anyway, I figured out the percentage of targets by WR, RB, and TE. It's not a perfect methodology, because a couple of the RB passes weren't checkdowns (exactly two, if I remember correctly), and some of the WR passes really were checkdowns (e.g., WR screens, TO caught a 6 yard hitch on 3rd and 18 in the Jets game, etc.). But it's still pretty good, and I doubt any of us has the time to go through every game and chart every pass play. So here goes.

 

For the year, Edwards' percentages of targets are as follows:

 

WR - 49.0%

RB - 27.8%

TE - 23.2%

 

I was honestly surprised to see how high WR was. Here's Fitzpatrick's percentages:

WR - 81.3%

RB - 12.5%

TE - 6.3%

 

Wowsers. Of course, Fitzpatrick's played less than two full games, so he doesn't have much of a sample size, so take this with a grain of salt. But I think the trend will continue, even if it doesn't stay quite this pronounced. And even if it doesn't, the point remains: So far, Fitzpatrick has definitely thrown to his WRs more than Edwards did. Not with great success, which is why Fitzpatrick is a backup. He's playing the right way; he's just not good enough to execute at a high level. Captain Checkdown has NOT been playing the right way, and I tend to doubt that he could pull it off if he tried.

 

The trend that you have noticed is that Fitz can't connect with his WRs. His complettion percentage is demonstrative.

 

Trent has major problems with confidence--he may be done psychologically in this league. But I'm not sure how you get excited about another guy who can't get the ball to his WRs any better than TE, despite "targeting" them more frequently.

[mrags]

Behind our current O-line and running our offense almost any QB is going to look pathetic.

 

There's just no arguing with some folks who are determined to make Trent Edwards look bad.

Pretty sure Trent makes himself look bad all on his own. His 1-4 record with 2 loses to teams with losing records prove that.

[Nuncha]

Agreed. It's clear that Fitzpatrick is not as talented as Edwards, but is willing to attempt throws that Trent isn't. At this point, it's making Fitzpatrick a more attractive option. By attempting these throws, defenses are having to respect a dimension that wasn't there before. It's an issue where Fitzpatrick is a mediocre talent, but may lead the team to a number of wins.

 

Fitz a more attractive option??? Hahaa! We'll see what you are saying after this weekeds game. Did any of you watch him while he started in Cincy last year? The guy is BAD.

[Cash]

The trend that you have noticed is that Fitz can't connect with his WRs. His complettion percentage is demonstrative.

 

Trent has major problems with confidence--he may be done psychologically in this league. But I'm not sure how you get excited about another guy who can't get the ball to his WRs any better than TE, despite "targeting" them more frequently.

 

Yeah, Fitzpatrick isn't a very good QB. Anyone getting excited about him is fooling himself. He would play better with a better O-line (a bunch of his misses came when he was hit as he threw), but that's true of any QB. Bottom line is that Fitzpatrick is no more than a backup.

 

But the point is that he's at least trying to be a good QB. If he had better ability, he would be a good QB. But Edwards isn't even trying to make plays downfield. How many times does he have to throw to a covered RB at the line of scrimmage on 3rd or 4th and long before it's clear that Edwards just doesn't get it? You could give him the best arm in the world and the best O-line in the world and he'd still suck, because his decision-making is nightmarish.

 

Now, if Edwards had the best arm in the world, I might be willing to wait on him, and hope his decision-making miraculously turns around. But Edwards doesn't have a good arm. His completion percentage is only better than Fitzpatrick's because Edwards makes so many more safe throws. On WR throws, they're both around 50%. And I can't recall Edwards successfully throwing to a WR on the move, except for the occasional go route. You just can't have a successful offense made up of hitches, checkdowns, and fly patterns, and that's all that Edwards gives you. Even the rare (extremely rare) times that he throws to a WR on the move, he's way too inaccurate. He's gotten intercepted twice on slants, and both times it was because the pass was high and behind TO. And he turns the ball over way too much for a guy who never makes any risky throws. I'm actually really surprised Fitzpatrick hasn't turned the ball over yet, because his willingness to take risks plus his lack of accuracy plus our bad pass protection should equal significant turnovers. Don't be surprised if Fitzpatrick tosses a couple picks against Houston.

[Ramius]

I really wouldn't call what Fitz is doing "throwing to his wide receivers". It is more like he is throwing passes in the direction of the wide receivers if they were 8' tall.

 

Thats preferrable to not even attempting to get the ball to his WRs and checking down for 2 yards on almost every pass.

[Mr. WEO]

Yeah, Fitzpatrick isn't a very good QB. Anyone getting excited about him is fooling himself. He would play better with a better O-line (a bunch of his misses came when he was hit as he threw), but that's true of any QB. Bottom line is that Fitzpatrick is no more than a backup.

 

But the point is that he's at least trying to be a good QB. If he had better ability, he would be a good QB. But Edwards isn't even trying to make plays downfield. How many times does he have to throw to a covered RB at the line of scrimmage on 3rd or 4th and long before it's clear that Edwards just doesn't get it? You could give him the best arm in the world and the best O-line in the world and he'd still suck, because his decision-making is nightmarish.

 

Now, if Edwards had the best arm in the world, I might be willing to wait on him, and hope his decision-making miraculously turns around. But Edwards doesn't have a good arm. His completion percentage is only better than Fitzpatrick's because Edwards makes so many more safe throws. On WR throws, they're both around 50%. And I can't recall Edwards successfully throwing to a WR on the move, except for the occasional go route. You just can't have a successful offense made up of hitches, checkdowns, and fly patterns, and that's all that Edwards gives you. Even the rare (extremely rare) times that he throws to a WR on the move, he's way too inaccurate. He's gotten intercepted twice on slants, and both times it was because the pass was high and behind TO. And he turns the ball over way too much for a guy who never makes any risky throws. I'm actually really surprised Fitzpatrick hasn't turned the ball over yet, because his willingness to take risks plus his lack of accuracy plus our bad pass protection should equal significant turnovers. Don't be surprised if Fitzpatrick tosses a couple picks against Houston.

 

You don't watch very closely. TE has gone deep to both Evans and TO.

 

Again, repeating endlessly that TE has not thrown downfield to a WR doesn't make it true. He clearly checks down a lot. But the vast majority of Fitz's passes are short also.

 

You should be surprised that "Fitzpatrick hasn't turned the ball over yet"--because he HAS. He was picked off twice against the Jets--one was waved off after Jets penalty.

 

You should do some basic research before you dive into the shallow end. It's just lazy.

[Terrell's Toe]

You don't watch very closely. TE has gone deep to both Evans and TO.

 

Again, repeating endlessly that TE has not thrown downfield to a WR doesn't make it true. He clearly checks down a lot. But the vast majority of Fitz's passes are short also.

 

You should be surprised that "Fitzpatrick hasn't turned the ball over yet"--because he HAS. He was picked off twice against the Jets--one was waved off after Jets penalty.

 

You should do some basic research before you dive into the shallow end. It's just lazy.

You're right, TE does throw downfield to his WR's - that is, if you consider TE dropping back seven steps and throwing for 5 to Reed behind the line of scrimage downfield. Do you also consider Fred and Marshawn WR's as well??

[Cash]

You don't watch very closely. TE has gone deep to both Evans and TO.

 

Again, repeating endlessly that TE has not thrown downfield to a WR doesn't make it true. He clearly checks down a lot. But the vast majority of Fitz's passes are short also.

 

You should be surprised that "Fitzpatrick hasn't turned the ball over yet"--because he HAS. He was picked off twice against the Jets--one was waved off after Jets penalty.

 

You should do some basic research before you dive into the shallow end. It's just lazy.

 

<Sigh>

 

Really, dude? I go through box scores and one game log to compile and post stats showing that Edwards goes to WRs 49% of the time and Fitzpatrick does so 81% of the time, and I'm the lazy one?

 

Let me hit you with some knowledge, chief. When I say "...I can't recall Edwards successfully throwing to a WR on the move, except for the occasional go route," that doesn't mean the same thing as (your words) "TE has not thrown downfield to a WR." Of course he's thrown downfield to WRs. Duh. But first of all, less than half of his passes even go towards WRs, and secondly, when they do go to WRs, it's usually to either a stationary WR or to a WR running a go route. "TE has gone deep to both Evans and TO." No kidding, ace. We know. That's why we say things like "except for the occasional go route." Also called the fly or 9 route, it's the quintessential deep ball. Trent throws a fair number of those. I don't want him throwing many more. Only Al Davis thinks you can still build an offense around the fly pattern. Trent doesn't throw nearly enough slants, crossing patterns, ins, outs, and posts. Yes, he throws some, but very rarely, and with little success. Off the top of my head, I can think of two slants to TO that were both bad throws resulting in interceptions, and one really nice circle route to Marshawn in the Cleveland game, where Edwards hit Lynch in stride and Lynch picked up some nice RAC. So Edwards has had at least one good pass to a target on the move, but I can't think of any that went to WRs.

 

"But the vast majority of Fitz's passes are short also."

 

This strikes me as one of those Poz-type vast majorities, i.e., about 40%. But you know what? Back up this statement with evidence, and I'll agree. All you have to do is take a look at the game logs of the last two games. Every pass is labeled as short, deep, etc. Just find the total number of "short" attempts by Fitzpatrick, then divide by his total attempts on the year, and you'll get a percentage. Don't be lazy.

[BadDad]

I really wouldn't call what Fitz is doing "throwing to his wide receivers". It is more like he is throwing passes in the direction of the wide receivers if they were 8' tall.

 

No argument there, Fitz is not accurate all, but I must say that as long as Edwards is going to wait until his receiver is completely open before he throws, (with the result of him being sacked or checking down on or behind the LOS), I'll go with the inaccurate thrower that lets his multi-million dollar receivers make a play or not.

[Tcali]

Let me guess -- 7??

I'd put my money on it.

[CDogg20]

True, Edwards has some talent. But, IMO, Fitzy is putting to rest the "gameplan" arguement. Look at the first pass he attempted. Down the middle, about 15-20 yards, to TO with a CB underneath and a safety over the top. Yes, he threw the ball high and TO didn't make the catch. But, that's exactly the type of throw that Trent has just refused to attempt. And, IMO, its been one of our biggest offensive problems this season.

 

More and more, I'm thinking the gameplan calls for plenty of slants and mid-range passes. Its just been that we've had a QB that was unwilling to attempt those throws. Fitz needs to do a ton of work to improve his accuracy, but at least he's trying. I can live with trying and failure, but failure without even trying - well that's jsut demoralizing. And increaasingly, week after week, this team was looking demoralized.

 

 

I agree 100%. I can get on board with at least putting up a fight. But I cant take all the demoralizing losses week after week after week.

[Mr. WEO]

<Sigh>

 

Really, dude? I go through box scores and one game log to compile and post stats showing that Edwards goes to WRs 49% of the time and Fitzpatrick does so 81% of the time, and I'm the lazy one?

 

Let me hit you with some knowledge, chief. When I say "...I can't recall Edwards successfully throwing to a WR on the move, except for the occasional go route," that doesn't mean the same thing as (your words) "TE has not thrown downfield to a WR." Of course he's thrown downfield to WRs. Duh. But first of all, less than half of his passes even go towards WRs, and secondly, when they do go to WRs, it's usually to either a stationary WR or to a WR running a go route. "TE has gone deep to both Evans and TO." No kidding, ace. We know. That's why we say things like "except for the occasional go route." Also called the fly or 9 route, it's the quintessential deep ball. Trent throws a fair number of those. I don't want him throwing many more. Only Al Davis thinks you can still build an offense around the fly pattern. Trent doesn't throw nearly enough slants, crossing patterns, ins, outs, and posts. Yes, he throws some, but very rarely, and with little success. Off the top of my head, I can think of two slants to TO that were both bad throws resulting in interceptions, and one really nice circle route to Marshawn in the Cleveland game, where Edwards hit Lynch in stride and Lynch picked up some nice RAC. So Edwards has had at least one good pass to a target on the move, but I can't think of any that went to WRs.

 

"But the vast majority of Fitz's passes are short also."

 

This strikes me as one of those Poz-type vast majorities, i.e., about 40%. But you know what? Back up this statement with evidence, and I'll agree. All you have to do is take a look at the game logs of the last two games. Every pass is labeled as short, deep, etc. Just find the total number of "short" attempts by Fitzpatrick, then divide by his total attempts on the year, and you'll get a percentage. Don't be lazy.

You could have checked and saved yourself the embarrassment. I already checked--hence I made my statement "vast majority".

 

Anyway 80% short passes vs Jets, 68% v. Carolina. 75% total.

 

See? Now we agree.