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When will there be an attack on Iran?


Magox

Timetable for an attack on Iran  

31 members have voted

  1. 1. When will either the U.S or Israel launch some sort of an attack on Iran?

    • Israel attacks Iran within 6 months
      9
    • " " 12 months
      5
    • " " 2 years
      4
    • compromise is struck between Iran and the international community
      5
    • Iran ignores international pressure and enriches enough uranium for a nuclear weapon
      9


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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/world/mi...ast/04nuke.html

 

Senior staff members of the United Nations nuclear agency have concluded in a confidential analysis that Iran has acquired “sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable” atom bomb.

 

The atomic agency’s report also presents evidence that beyond improving upon bomb-making information gathered from rogue nuclear experts around the world, Iran has done extensive research and testing on how to fashion the components of a weapon. It does not say how far that work has progressed.

 

The report, titled “Possible Military Dimensions of Iran’s Nuclear Program,” was produced in consultation with a range of nuclear weapons experts inside and outside the agency. It draws a picture of a complex program, run by Iran’s Ministry of Defense, “aimed at the development of a nuclear payload to be delivered using the Shahab 3 missile system,” Iran’s medium-range missile, which can strike the Middle East and parts of Europe. The program, according to the report, apparently began in early 2002.

 

If Iran is designing a warhead, that would represent only part of the complex process of making nuclear arms. Experts say Iran has already mastered the hardest part, enriching the uranium that can be used as nuclear fuel.

 

ya, but thank goodness they are now cooperating, we get to inspect what they are doing on October 25th.

 

:lol:

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Even if they have them, delivery's an issue. The Israelis don't have a hell of a lot of planes that can reach all the way to Iran...particularly with heavy penetrators hanging on them. Not to mention that some of those planes would have to be dedicated to anti-air-defense missions as well. The Israelis simply don't have a hell of a lot of ability to project power that far on their own.

You know how wasteful the US military is. Pity if they where to misplace a B2 bomber.

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Business as usual

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aF_k4yfffW0c

 

-- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said threats to impose new sanctions against Iran are “counterproductive” and the international community should push for a diplomatic solution on the country’s nuclear program.

 

“Our position is that at this stage all efforts should be made to support the negotiating process,” Lavrov said in Moscow after talks with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. “Sanctions and the threat of pressure in the current situation are counterproductive in our view.”

 

Clinton said that while new sanctions against Iran aren’t yet inevitable, “in the absence of significant progress and assurances that Iran isn’t pursuing nuclear weapons,” the U.S. will “be seeking to rally international opinion” in favor of imposing sanctions.

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Business as usual

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aF_k4yfffW0c

 

-- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said threats to impose new sanctions against Iran are “counterproductive” and the international community should push for a diplomatic solution on the country’s nuclear program.

I tend to agree with Lavrov. A couple of beers on the White House lawn with Barack Obama and Plugs Biden, and Iran will be our little B word.

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I tend to agree with Lavrov. A couple of beers on the White House lawn with Barack Obama and Plugs Biden, and Iran will be our little B word.

I'm thinking that it went down something like this:

 

Medvedev: "Putin, did you see, the Iranians have been holding out on us, maybe it's time we go along with the Americans and impose some sanctions on them"

 

Putin: "Oh my little Medvedev, when will you learn?"

 

Medvedev: "But what do you mean? The Iranians have been holding out on us."

 

Putin: "No, lil Med, I've been holding out on you, you're weak and sympathetic and you drink too much of the Obama-laid, I mean look, you still have that cheap plastic Reset Button in your office"

 

Medvedev: "But, they said we are going to turn the page, and start a new era of diplomacy, I have the Reset button to prove it"

 

Putin: "Fool, there is no reset, now go instruct Lavrov to say ' threats to impose new sanctions against Iran are “counterproductive” and the international community should push for a diplomatic solution on the country’s nuclear program.' and let the Americans push through their silly Sanctions that we won't abide by."

 

Medvedev: "Okay"

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Sanctions generally don't work. They're the "feel good" solution that makes it look like the international community is doing something but in reality the people in charge don't care and only the little guys pay. Saddam built palaces using the Oil for Food" money while people were starving in the streets.

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I'm thinking that it went down something like this:

 

Medvedev: "Putin, did you see, the Iranians have been holding out on us, maybe it's time we go along with the Americans and impose some sanctions on them"

 

Putin: "Oh my little Medvedev, when will you learn?"

 

Medvedev: "But what do you mean? The Iranians have been holding out on us."

 

Putin: "No, lil Med, I've been holding out on you, you're weak and sympathetic and you drink too much of the Obama-laid, I mean look, you still have that cheap plastic Reset Button in your office"

 

Medvedev: "But, they said we are going to turn the page, and start a new era of diplomacy, I have the Reset button to prove it"

 

Putin: "Fool, there is no reset, now go instruct Lavrov to say ' threats to impose new sanctions against Iran are “counterproductive” and the international community should push for a diplomatic solution on the country’s nuclear program.' and let the Americans push through their silly Sanctions that we won't abide by."

 

Medvedev: "Okay"

 

Here's the part you left out:

 

Putin: Besides, if we move forward with sanctions on Iran, how will we ever get to take inventory of US nukes.

 

It'll be interesting to see how well this new Obama approach of "Okay, I'll suck your dick, but you better say you like me when I'm done" approach works out.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Some things never change:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091023/ap_on_...ml_iran_nuclear

 

Iran fails to accept UN uranium enrichment plan

 

 

Associated Press Writer – 56 mins ago

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran on Friday failed to accept a U.N.-drafted plan that would ship most of the country's uranium abroad for enrichment, saying instead it would prefer to buy the nuclear fuel it needs for a reactor that makes medical isotopes.

 

The response will come as a disappointment to the U.S., Russia and France, which endorsed the U.N. plan Friday they drafted in discussions with Iran earlier in the week. The agreement was meant to ease Western fears about Iran's potential to make a nuclear weapon.

 

The sooner we come to the realization that they are jerking our chain, the sooner we come to a solution.

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Some things never change:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091023/ap_on_...ml_iran_nuclear

 

Iran fails to accept UN uranium enrichment plan

 

 

Associated Press Writer – 56 mins ago

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran on Friday failed to accept a U.N.-drafted plan that would ship most of the country's uranium abroad for enrichment, saying instead it would prefer to buy the nuclear fuel it needs for a reactor that makes medical isotopes.

 

The response will come as a disappointment to the U.S., Russia and France, which endorsed the U.N. plan Friday they drafted in discussions with Iran earlier in the week. The agreement was meant to ease Western fears about Iran's potential to make a nuclear weapon.

 

The sooner we come to the realization that they are jerking our chain, the sooner we come to a solution.

 

Funny thing is, they think we're jerking their chain...which is why they make decisions like this in the first place. We don't trust them with a nuclear program, so we demand safeguards against military use, which they see as evidence of our intent to exert control over their strategic and economic interests and use that as an excuse to refuse to provide safeguards...which WE in turn use as evidence of intent of military use and thus demand even stronger safeguards, which they see as evidence... :censored: It's just a vicious cycle of mistrust, and not exactly unearned on either side.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/30/world/mi.../30nuke.html?hp

 

Iran told the United Nations nuclear watchdog on Thursday that it would not accept, in its current form, a plan its negotiators agreed to last week to send the country’s stockpile of uranium out of the country, according to diplomats in Europe and American officials briefed on Iran’s response, potentially unwinding President Obama’s effort to buy time to resolve the nuclear standoff.

 

But the European and American officials said that Iran refused to go along with the one feature of the draft agreement that could undermine Tehran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon. That provision would have required the country to give up custody, temporarily, of about three-quarters of its current known stockpile of low-enriched uranium, leaving it without enough to manufacture a weapon. American officials said they thought that would give them a year or so to seek a broader nuclear agreement with Iran, one that could address Iran’s continued enrichment of nuclear fuel.

 

A senior European official characterized the Iranian response as “basically a refusal.” The Iranians, he said, want to keep all their lightly enriched uranium in the country until the I.A.E.A. provides the fuel assemblies of fuel for the reactor in Tehran, produced and fabricated from foreign uranium.

 

Only then do the Iranians say that they would be willing to export their own lightly enriched uranium. “So it’s all virtual,” the official said.

 

“The key issue is that Iran does not agree to export its lightly enriched uranium,” he said. “That’s not a minor detail. That’s the whole point of the deal.”

 

As of mid-afternoon, the Obama administration had said nothing about the Iranian response. Until now, it has talked little about the agreement reached in Vienna last week, fearing that any public discussion would only harden the position in Tehran, where the accord that Iranian negotiators brought home triggered a public debate about whether the West was cheating Iran out of its nuclear stockpile.

 

However, it came as the Iranian president made his most positive comments to date on the effort, saying, “We welcome cooperation on nuclear fuel, power plants and technology, and we are ready to cooperate.”

 

In a speech in the northeastern city of Mashad broadcast live on state television, Mr. Ahmadinejad did not address any possible amendments to the deal, but cast it as a victory for Iranian steadfastness against the West.

 

“A few years ago they said we had to completely stop all our nuclear activities,” he said. “Now look where we are today. Now they want nuclear cooperation with the Iranian nation.”

 

:unsure:

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  • 4 weeks later...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...d=moreheadlines

 

The board of the U.N. nuclear watchdog censured Iran on Friday, with 25 nations backing a resolution that demands Tehran immediately freeze construction of its newly revealed nuclear facility and heed Security Council resolutions calling on it to stop uranium enrichment.

 

Iran remained defiant, with its chief representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency declaring that his country would resist "pressure, resolutions, sanction(s) and threat of military attack."

 

and look who dissented, what a surprise.

 

Strong support for the resolution at the meeting was also notable. Only three nations - Cuba, Venezuela and Malaysia - voted against the document, with six abstentions and one member absent.

 

However, Russia and China agreed to the resolution, but will they back tough sanctions?

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...d=moreheadlines

 

Even Mohammed El Baradei the IAEA chief of the U.N. nuclear watchdog for the first expressed doubt and said, . "We have effectively reached a dead end, unless Iran engages fully with us." , and this comes from a guy who many have criticized for taking a too dovish tone through out negotiations over the past few years.

 

I'd say if Russia and China don't both agree to tough sanctions against Iran, this definitely would fast track a possible assault against Iran from Israel.

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