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Rumor: Trent Edwards leaning towards shoulder surgery!


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Ahhhhhhhh.

 

There's simply nothing better than the sweet words of yet another offseason QB discussion.

 

So long and farewell JP Losman. Good Luck and Good Riddance. While I was one of those who felt you got some raw deals in the coaching department, you did nothing with the opportunities you had (sporadic and futile as they were) to merit any sort of extension etc. Bon Voyage.

 

It's funny that this thread has a very appropriate title as rumor, but people are treating the info as fact... Even going so far as to use WGR as a credible source... Since when did that happen? How many coaches and free agents were announced by them as "done deals" only to later discover they were actually never tendered offers?

 

And, what exactly did we learn from the rumor? Not much, we don't get what extent his injury or his recovery time are. Only that he's considering surgery on his shoulder.

 

I, for one, hope he recovers fully from whatever maladies he has this offseason, and begins '09 as the starting QB. I'm tired of the rotisserie at QB (and Head Coach) due to a desperate fanbase clamoring for a return to "greatness"... You know, the Greatness that was 4 abysmal failures and missed opportunity.

 

I'm a Bills fan. I have been for as long as I can remember - outside of a grade school following of the Steelers against the hated Cowboys (I hate anyone pronouncing themselves "America's team")... (go ahead and do the math, I'm old). I will continue to be a fan of theirs barring the team leaving the city of my birth. Even then, while I wouldn't like it at all... I'd probably still follow this team - they mean too much to me.

 

So... Get well Trent. We need you in '09.

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OK, I'll bite. Pollyanna time...

 

1. Free agency. Before declaring 2009 a lost season, let's at least wait and see what the team does in free agency and (to a lesser extent) the draft. A few prudent moves here and there to improve the pass rush, the interior of the offensive line and the TE position could go a long way toward helping this team win a few extra games. The team is in great shape against the cap -- and the decision to retain Jauron saved Wilson millions. There is no reason he shouldn't be willing to pay top dollar for quality free agents.

 

2. With all of the doom and gloom about how poorly the team played in the division, how about the fact that they actually went 7-3 outside the division? Also, all of those division losses were winnable, as were 2 of the three out-of-division losses. The only game in which they got soundly beat this year was the Arizona game. Yes, I know a loss is a loss, and it doesn't matter whether it was by 1 point or 20 points. My point just is that it would NOT take a significant amount of upgrading to modify the outcome of many of those losses. Another stat of note: .500 on the road. That is a reasonable goal to shoot for every year. It's hard to fathom the team winning only 3 games at home again next season

 

3. Maybe Jauron just had a bad year? I honestly thought he did a decent enough job the first two years here. The bad coaching decisions are inexcusable, but I don't remember him being so guilty of these types of gaffes in 2006 and 2007. He sure seemed smarter when the team was 5-1 before Trent's mid-season slump. I am sure that he will continue to be out-coached by the likes of Bellichick, but who isn't?

 

4. The team is a VERY young team. Perhaps the time is ripe for many of the young, core players to grow up. Moreover, wouldn't it be nice if we could get through a season reasonably unscathed by injuries? I wonder how much better the defense would have been with a healthy Crowell and Schobel? Miami probably loses down in Miami if McGee is healthy. If JP Losman had never set foot on the field this year, there is a good chance that we would have won 2-3 more games. Yes, injuries are a part of the game, but it sure does seem like the Bills have had more than their share the past 2 seasons.

 

5. We get a last place schedule! That only potentially helps in 2 games, but 2 games can make all the difference in the world.

 

6. The schedule looks really tough, but who's to say how good any of these teams will be?

 

 

are you Juarons mom

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Trent needs to earn a break. He's been sold as the savior by numerous fans, sportswriters, and the Bills front office/coaching staff itself. God forbid we have any expectations from him, like playing a full season without getting hurt, or not playing abysmal football for large portions of the season, or actually attempting a pass over 10 yards in length from time to time.

 

That is one way to look at it.

 

Another would be the fact that many Bills fans were simply fed up with watching JP go from a quarterback who sucked to a geek like circus act in 5 dismal years. That was painful, but it was worse having to listen to his leigon of "supporters" who, in a balls to the wall quest to be "right" on a message board, blast a kid who in 2 seasons won 20% more games than JP did in 5 sad seasons.

 

Most of the people who blast Trent are the very same fanboys who had a freight train full of excuses for JP. No, it isn't etched in stone that Trent will be great, but ya know what? Even if he fails, he will have cost us the 27th pick of round 3, not a 1st, 2nd and a 5th.

JP had 5 years. I was thinking that a Bills Fan might want to give Trent a chance too. He did win 12 games in 2 seasons. Imo, JP won't win 12 more in his entire career.

 

In other words, it can't get worse than what we had.

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That is one way to look at it.

 

Another would be the fact that many Bills fans were simply fed up with watching JP go from a quarterback who sucked to a geek like circus act in 5 dismal years. That was painful, but it was worse having to listen to his leigon of "supporters" who, in a balls to the wall quest to be "right" on a message board, blast a kid who in 2 seasons won 20% more games than JP did in 5 sad seasons.

 

Most of the people who blast Trent are the very same fanboys who had a freight train full of excuses for JP. No, it isn't etched in stone that Trent will be great, but ya know what? Even if he fails, he will have cost us the 27th pick of round 3, not a 1st, 2nd and a 5th.

JP had 5 years. I was thinking that a Bills Fan might want to give Trent a chance too. He did win 12 games in 2 seasons. Imo, JP won't win 12 more in his entire career.

 

In other words, it can't get worse than what we had.

 

For starters, since JP is no longer a Buffalo Bill, discussions about trent's many shortcomings have nothing to do with JP. Secondly, some of us want an actual honestly good QB, not just someone who's "better than the last guy." Just because the guy rated a 4 is better than the previous guy who was rated a 3 doesn't mean that the guy rated 4 is any good.

 

So here, we're discussing trent's porcelain doll like durability, his absolute unwillingness to throw anything but a checkdown, and his utter inability to play in any less than perfect weather. None of those have anything to do with JP.

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As if getting the ball to the RBs and involving them in the offense is automatically "dumping it off" and a bad thing. New England's offense is built on screens to RBs, WRs and others, as well as quick slants. Getting the ball to playmakers quickly and with space is not a bad thing.

Well then, lets take a look at the Bills offense versus the Pats* offense and see how it breaks down.

 

Your premise is that NE* is a team that runs a fair amount of screens, and quite frankly their screens have given the Bills' defense fits over the past half decade. In 2008, 23.0% of the receptions by a NE* player were by the RBs, and their two main backs ended up 3rd and 6th on the team in total receptions. By contrast, in 2008, 27.8% of the Bills receptions were by their RBs, and they ended up 3rd and 4th in total receptions. At first blush one would give kudos to Jauron for trying to emulate the NE* offense. However, anyone that has watched the Bills over the past few years has noticed the relative rarity of the screen pass.

 

Looking back at past seasons and the NE* numbers for RB receptions are as follows, shown as percent of total receptions and where the RBs finished in receptions compared with their teammates.

2005 17.3% (5th, 6th, 7th)

2006 24.5% (4th, 5th, 7th)

2007 15.1% (3rd, 8th)

2008 23.0% (3rd, 6th)

 

So, really, a team that has used their backs in a pass-catching capacity admittedly pretty successfully have used it less than 25% of the time, but not really as a rule as they seem to change their offensive philosophy from year-to-year. The Bills, on the other hand, inarguably a team that hasn't relied on the screen for a decade had their RBs catch 27.8% of the passes thrown this season, with their RBs ending up 3rd and 4th in total receptions. But, being Bills fans we know that you could count the number of RB screens tried this season on one hand.

 

Here are the Bills numbers.

2005 16.7% (4th, 6th)

2006 14.9% (6th, 7th)

2007 20.9% (6th, 7th, 8th)

2008 27.8% (3rd, 4th)

 

So, my point is that Lynch and Jackson had their hands on over 25% of the passes caught this season. That would suggest that those passes weren't that far past the LOS, and as a Bills fan I know they were rarely called by design. Thus, Edwards has been "dumping off" a disproportionate amount of the time to his RBs.

 

 

I also took a look at Pitt, a run-heavy team with a game-managing QB, and Philly, a team whose offense is definitely built around their pass-catching RB Brian Westbrook, and McNabb who has never been accused of being a dink/dunk QB. Using the above method of showing the data:

 

Pitt

2005 9.6% (5th)

2006 14.7% (6th)

2007 14.5% (5th)

2008 14.1% (5th)

 

Philly

2005 19.2% (tied for 1st)

2006 31.3% (1st)

2007 25.7% (1st)

2008 22.1% (2nd)

 

Robo very rarely uses his RBs as receivers. McNabb clearly uses Westbrook because that's the Philly offense. Like I said above, at first blush you'd give kudos to Dick and Turk for trying to emulate the NE* or Philly offenses, but really we all know that's not the case. If it was we'd see more evidence of it on the field. We don't. Conclusion is Trent's ignoring his deep targets and dumping it off to Lynch and Jackson.

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OK, I'll bite. Pollyanna time...

 

1. Free agency. Before declaring 2009 a lost season, let's at least wait and see what the team does in free agency and (to a lesser extent) the draft. A few prudent moves here and there to improve the pass rush, the interior of the offensive line and the TE position could go a long way toward helping this team win a few extra games. The team is in great shape against the cap -- and the decision to retain Jauron saved Wilson millions. There is no reason he shouldn't be willing to pay top dollar for quality free agents.

 

2. With all of the doom and gloom about how poorly the team played in the division, how about the fact that they actually went 7-3 outside the division? Also, all of those division losses were winnable, as were 2 of the three out-of-division losses. The only game in which they got soundly beat this year was the Arizona game. Yes, I know a loss is a loss, and it doesn't matter whether it was by 1 point or 20 points. My point just is that it would NOT take a significant amount of upgrading to modify the outcome of many of those losses. Another stat of note: .500 on the road. That is a reasonable goal to shoot for every year. It's hard to fathom the team winning only 3 games at home again next season

 

3. Maybe Jauron just had a bad year? I honestly thought he did a decent enough job the first two years here. The bad coaching decisions are inexcusable, but I don't remember him being so guilty of these types of gaffes in 2006 and 2007. He sure seemed smarter when the team was 5-1 before Trent's mid-season slump. I am sure that he will continue to be out-coached by the likes of Bellichick, but who isn't?

 

4. The team is a VERY young team. Perhaps the time is ripe for many of the young, core players to grow up. Moreover, wouldn't it be nice if we could get through a season reasonably unscathed by injuries? I wonder how much better the defense would have been with a healthy Crowell and Schobel? Miami probably loses down in Miami if McGee is healthy. If JP Losman had never set foot on the field this year, there is a good chance that we would have won 2-3 more games. Yes, injuries are a part of the game, but it sure does seem like the Bills have had more than their share the past 2 seasons.

 

5. We get a last place schedule! That only potentially helps in 2 games, but 2 games can make all the difference in the world.

 

6. The schedule looks really tough, but who's to say how good any of these teams will be?

 

I think I am more bothered by what Jauron does from Monday - Saturday than on game day. Looks to me like he is out guessed by the opposing team (game plan wise) more often than not. An example was Trent's comment after the Cleveland game that he was unprepared for what they did on defense. Tipping off the opposition on when they are running or passing would be another. He's a smart guy but a terrible player of chess as it relates to football IMO.

 

As far as next year's schedule, yes teams will be different next year so it's hard to say how tough it is. However, the NFC South looks like it will be much tougher than the NFC West was this year. AFC East probably won't be any picnic either. Titans and Colts? Ouch! Jauron is perfectly positioned to fail and likely will and will be canned next year.

 

As for Trent's shoulder, he'll get it fixed. Bills QB won't matter again until 2010. Take the year off people and have some fun. That's what I intend to do.

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That is one way to look at it.

 

Another would be the fact that many Bills fans were simply fed up with watching JP go from a quarterback who sucked to a geek like circus act in 5 dismal years. That was painful, but it was worse having to listen to his leigon of "supporters" who, in a balls to the wall quest to be "right" on a message board, blast a kid who in 2 seasons won 20% more games than JP did in 5 sad seasons.

 

Most of the people who blast Trent are the very same fanboys who had a freight train full of excuses for JP. No, it isn't etched in stone that Trent will be great, but ya know what? Even if he fails, he will have cost us the 27th pick of round 3, not a 1st, 2nd and a 5th.

JP had 5 years. I was thinking that a Bills Fan might want to give Trent a chance too. He did win 12 games in 2 seasons. Imo, JP won't win 12 more in his entire career.

 

In other words, it can't get worse than what we had.

IF Trent can stay healthy (that is a BIG IF) he will have played in more games than JP by around Midseason 09. Next year JP will be on a team with COMPETENT COACHING, even if he never plays in 09 you can bet he will get "coached up". Trent will be in year three under DJ..............................GOOD LUCK WITH THAT.

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