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Can Someone Explain the Logic in reaching for a WR


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When we have a coach that loves to win with the run game and tough D......

 

Because it would force the other team to NOT play 9 in the box and might actually give Marshawn some room to run? It might also give another weapon to our young developing QB, who sorely needs them.

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I understand we need a WR, but I do not feel we need to take the best one(which is very debatable) 10-12 picks before he should be picked....why not pass on a wr and see how the 1st round plays out...trade back in if the guy you wanted falls or take the best available in the 2nd

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I understand we need a WR, but I do not feel we need to take the best one(which is very debatable) 10-12 picks before he should be picked....why not pass on a wr and see how the 1st round plays out...trade back in if the guy you wanted falls or take the best available in the 2nd

 

First, where are you getting "10-12 picks before he should be picked" from? An "expert"? Who?

 

Second, don't you wish teams could just "trade back in" every time they wanted to? It would be nice, wouldn't it? If the Bills feel that one of the receivers is a head above the rest, draft him at #11 and get your man. Don't try and play russian roulette with getting extra draft picks and hoping he is there, or listen to the "critics" and "experts" tell you that your draft was stupid, because that's all they've done to us the past few years and were dead wrong. Get your man.

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So why not the 2nd or 3rd round? Why MUST it be the 1st round?

 

No one said it must. But the Bills may have WRs rated higher than the "experts" do, and there might not be much to choose from when our 2nd round pick comes around.

 

Picking someone at #11 when the dumbass "experts" say they shouldnt go until 17-18 isnt a "reach"

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I understand we need a WR, but I do not feel we need to take the best one(which is very debatable) 10-12 picks before he should be picked....why not pass on a wr and see how the 1st round plays out...trade back in if the guy you wanted falls or take the best available in the 2nd

 

I also would not be opposed to that....but I would much rather trade down.

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b/c the higher you draft someone...the better they are...duh

 

Sincerely,

 

Charles Rogers, Yatil Green, and Peter Warrick

 

And because 1 or 2 teams find gems in the late rounds, that means everyone can and you shouldnt spend any high picks on that position. ;)

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First, where are you getting "10-12 picks before he should be picked" from? An "expert"? Who?

 

Second, don't you wish teams could just "trade back in" every time they wanted to? It would be nice, wouldn't it? If the Bills feel that one of the receivers is a head above the rest, draft him at #11 and get your man. Don't try and play russian roulette with getting extra draft picks and hoping he is there, or listen to the "critics" and "experts" tell you that your draft was stupid, because that's all they've done to us the past few years and were dead wrong. Get your man.

 

Good point...these "draft experts" dont really know more then you or I do I think.

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No one said it must. But the Bills may have WRs rated higher than the "experts" do, and there might not be much to choose from when our 2nd round pick comes around.

 

Picking someone at #11 when the dumbass "experts" say they shouldnt go until 17-18 isnt a "reach"

 

I could of course be totally wrong....but I am thinking the bills already know what WR (and tight end for that matter) they want going into the draft......

 

They may get them they may not.....but they may also just take the opinion of we know who we want and will take them before somebody else does.

 

Some will agree with that strategy and some will not.

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The logic behind drafting a receiver in the first round is that you NEED ONE! The proper response to people who say wait and see what's left after the first round is an analogy. If you're on a boat, and their's a hole in your cabin ceiling but also a huge hole in the hull, which do you fix first? You could plug the hole in the ceiling first and not get rained on, or the boat can sink to the bottom. You do your best job fixing the biggest problems first. If WR is your biggest need, you don't wait and do a terrible patch job with second rate material. You go for the best.

 

A "Reach" is something experts talk about to try and justify their mock drafts and their opinions. Then, if the player turns out to be great, they go, oops, guess that guy had more talent than we thought. People claimed that Whitner was a reach at #8 two years ago, and I have to say he's turned out to be one of the best players on our D. I don't think that was a reach, particularly when our deep secondary had been so horrible for so long.

 

This year there are lot of teams that have needs at receiver and if we fall back, we won't get the one we need. Take Devin Thomas or James Hardy at #11 and let the experts and the naysayers here whine and cry. If the guy pans out they'll be on the bandwagon in no time, or they'll be so stubborn they won't be able to see reason. In fact, just to throw fuel on the fire, I would suggest the following. The Bills take Devin Thomas at #11 and if our pick comes up at #42, and Malcolm Kelly or James Hardy somehow miraculously fall to that spot, we should take another WR in the second. That way you shore up the offense at that position, then you take a TE in the third, like John Carlson, then you draft BPA the rest of the way. That's how badly we need a WR this year.

 

As to the suggestion that the class is deep and not very steep, I would say that is true for the top six guys. However, there is a clear drop off after that point. No way you can say with a straight face that Adrian Arrington is as good or better than Devin Thomas or James Hardy, or Malcolm Kelly. Sorry, but its true.

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No one said it must. But the Bills may have WRs rated higher than the "experts" do, and there might not be much to choose from when our 2nd round pick comes around.

 

Picking someone at #11 when the dumbass "experts" say they shouldnt go until 17-18 isnt a "reach"

 

Agreed. We have to trust the powers that be at OBD -- and the information that they have taken in from the scouts. They have already gone on the record saying that they will not reach for a player at #11. Thus, if they take a receiver (Thomas or whomever) we have to take it on good faith that they had him rated higher than some of the other players we have all been clamoring for in that spot. Based on what Modrak said last week (and he usually is NOT one to spread misinformation), and assuming no one like Gholston unexpectedly drops, I suspect that the Bills will take McKelvin if he is there at 11. If he's not there, who knows? Of course, Modrak's saying that McKelvin was a top 10 player probably is an indication that he expects him to be drafted before 11.

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I also would not be opposed to that....but I would much rather trade down.

 

agree with most others that you cant just 'trade down' when you decide to. I dont think our front office will take the risk, b/c with Hardy, Sweed, Thomas, Kelly and maybe 1 or 2 others - there is a decent drop off from there talent wise. If you look at the draft board - Cincy, Philly, Skins, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Tennessee, San Fran, Carolina - to name a few - all could potentially draft WR based on needs. I wouldnt take that risk of losing 'our guy'. I could see us drafting WR at 11 - b/c that is our BIGGEST NEED at this point, and maybe trading back in to bottom of 1 for a CB.

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When we have a coach that loves to win with the run game and tough D......

 

Because if we have the 7 dwarves at WR no one will respect the passing game. They will then stack the box (just like last year) making it very difficult to run the ball. Also causing Lynch to have to break tackles all of the time to gain meaningful yards.

 

Not to mention that an actual WR lining up across the feild from Lee, takes double teams off of him. Another Legit WR means that their safetys can't cheat to one side of the feild/closer to the line of scrimmage.

 

And last but certainly not least, adding a red-zone threat/go up and get it on third and long/able to go across the middle of the field type WR really helps out our 2nd year developing QB. ;)

 

BTW if this class is as weak as a lot of people are saying.... why would you wait to get a worse WR than the terrible ones expected to go in the first? I personally think Limus Sweed would be slated to go around our pick (10-15) if it wasn't for the wrist injury. If hes healthy, I say take him at 11/wherever we might trade down to.

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And because 1 or 2 teams find gems in the late rounds, that means everyone can and you shouldnt spend any high picks on that position. ;)

I decided to do a little research....since 2000 here are the WR selected in the top 15 each year

 

2000 Peter Warrick, Plaxico, and Travis Taylor

2001 David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner

2002 Donte Stallworth

2003 Charles ROgers, Andre Johnson

2004 Larry Fitz, Roy Williams, lee Evans

2005 Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson

2006 NONE

2007 Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn Jr

 

 

by my count you have 3 Studs(all drafted top 3 FWIW), 3 stars, 2 servicable, and 8 bums/too early to tell...I can never think of a good time to take a WR ealry...they are a luuxury item...get some big kid in the 2-5th rounds, that is hungry to make the team....

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I decided to do a little research....since 2000 here are the WR selected in the top 15 each year

 

2000 Peter Warrick, Plaxico, and Travis Taylor

2001 David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner

2002 Donte Stallworth

2003 Charles ROgers, Andre Johnson

2004 Larry Fitz, Roy Williams, lee Evans

2005 Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson

2006 NONE

2007 Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn Jr

 

 

by my count you have 3 Studs(all drafted top 3 FWIW), 3 stars, 2 servicable, and 8 bums/too early to tell...I can never think of a good time to take a WR ealry...they are a luuxury item...get some big kid in the 2-5th rounds, that is hungry to make the team....

 

We have a gaping hole at #2 WR, and you consider a WR a "luxury item"? ;)

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This year there are lot of teams that have needs at receiver and if we fall back, we won't get the one we need. Take Devin Thomas or James Hardy at #11 and let the experts and the naysayers here whine and cry. If the guy pans out they'll be on the bandwagon in no time, or they'll be so stubborn they won't be able to see reason. In fact, just to throw fuel on the fire, I would suggest the following. The Bills take Devin Thomas at #11 and if our pick comes up at #42, and Malcolm Kelly or James Hardy somehow miraculously fall to that spot, we should take another WR in the second. That way you shore up the offense at that position, then you take a TE in the third, like John Carlson, then you draft BPA the rest of the way. That's how badly we need a WR this year.

 

As to the suggestion that the class is deep and not very steep, I would say that is true for the top six guys. However, there is a clear drop off after that point. No way you can say with a straight face that Adrian Arrington is as good or better than Devin Thomas or James Hardy, or Malcolm Kelly. Sorry, but its true.

 

Taking a Wide Receiver high is a luxury pick, one that you make when you're set at other key positions (unless of course, you are Matt Millen).

 

Yes, the Bills need a WR -- but they also need to improve their pass rush, their pass defense, their defensive line, and offensive line. The Bills should take the best player available -- and if they think that a WR is the best player available at #11, chances are pretty good that they're DEAD wrong... just like they were dead wrong when they thought that Whitner was the best player available at #8, and just like they were dead wrong when they deemed Lee Evans the best player available at #12. While Lee Evans is a good player, there's no question that Wilfork and Harris have made a far greater impact in keeping their teams competitive and would have been better selections.

 

Is it any coincidence that the Bills and Lions have the longest post-season drought in the NFL behind only the Arizona Cardinals?

 

I think not.

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