Can Someone Explain the Logic in reaching for a WR

[VABills]

We have a gaping hole at #2 WR, and you consider a WR a "luxury item"?

But DL drafted in the first round never fail. You just don't understand.

[Dawgg]

We have a gaping hole at #2 WR, and you consider a WR a "luxury item"?

 

Absolutely. Because this team is pretty weak at a number positions, WR included.

[Dawgg]

prepare yourself for disappointment on saturday when the professionals in the front office, and the rest of the fans, disagree.

 

The same "professionals" who have steered this team to irrelevance the past 10 years?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NFL_f...-season_drought

[Huuuge Bills]

I decided to do a little research....since 2000 here are the WR selected in the top 15 each year

 

2000 Peter Warrick, Plaxico, and Travis Taylor

2001 David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner

2002 Donte Stallworth

2003 Charles ROgers, Andre Johnson

2004 Larry Fitz, Roy Williams, lee Evans

2005 Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson

2006 NONE

2007 Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn Jr

 

 

by my count you have 3 Studs(all drafted top 3 FWIW), 3 stars, 2 servicable, and 8 bums/too early to tell...I can never think of a good time to take a WR ealry...they are a luuxury item...get some big kid in the 2-5th rounds, that is hungry to make the team....

 

A. Johnson, Plaxico, Fitzgerald, R. Williams, Evans, and Edwards are all VERY good WR's. If it wasn't for his back injury, Calvin Johnson would already be there with them. That's 6 of the picks that got what you would expect.

 

Robinson and Stallworth are good WR's, but not first round quality.

 

The rest are busts, or just didn't warrant a high pick. You can't really tell what Ginn is gonna be worth (Definately not worth #9). He could be a playmaker, but not yet.

 

Maybe someone can do some research, but that seems to be the bust rate at most positions.

[DrDawkinstein]

The same "professionals" who have steered this team to irrelevance the past 10 years?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NFL_f...-season_drought

 

no, the ones who have completely rebuilt it into a viable franchise within the last 2 years.

[Huuuge Bills]

no, the ones who have completely rebuilt it into a viable franchise within the last 2 years.

 

Beat me to it. Tommy Donahoe had a little something to do with most of that.

[obie_wan]

Beat me to it. Tommy Donahoe had a little something to do with most of that.

 

good thing we replaced all those talent evaluators that helped TD make those stupid selections

[Dawgg]

no, the ones who have completely rebuilt it into a viable franchise within the last 2 years.

 

A league ranking of 30th in Offense.

A league ranking of 31st in Defense.

 

Viable?

[DrDawkinstein]

good thing we replaced all those talent evaluators that helped TD make those stupid selections

 

and now he's gone and the franchise actually has a plan besides "draft the best name/most marketable player"

 

A league ranking of 30th in Offense.

A league ranking of 31st in Defense.

 

Viable?

 

cause thats the only way to analyze teams

[Huuuge Bills]

A league ranking of 30th in Offense.

A league ranking of 31st in Defense.

 

Viable?

 

You win with points, not yards.

 

And having an NFL record for players on IR, having several other players injured, Ellison starting, Tripplett starting, K. Williams starting, Steve Fairchild, hard schedule, half a season of JP starting, a rookie QB starting in the other half, and playing "the best team of all time*" twice had a little something to do with those rankings.

[ax4782]

Taking a Wide Receiver high is a luxury pick, one that you make when you're set at other key positions (unless of course, you are Matt Millen).

 

Yes, the Bills need a WR -- but they also need to improve their pass rush, their pass defense, their defensive line, and offensive line. The Bills should take the best player available -- and if they think that a WR is the best player available at #11, chances are pretty good that they're DEAD wrong... just like they were dead wrong when they thought that Whitner was the best player available at #8, and just like they were dead wrong when they deemed Lee Evans the best player available at #12. While Lee Evans is a good player, there's no question that Wilfork and Harris have made a far greater impact in keeping their teams competitive and would have been better selections.

 

Is it any coincidence that the Bills and Lions have the longest post-season drought in the NFL behind only the Arizona Cardinals?

 

I think not.

 

Oh yes, I forgot about the over 150 million dollars we have already shelled out to upgrade the O and D lines. I forgot about all those offseason moves that people were crowing about with Stroud, Mitchell, James and Johnson coming in. I forgot that Whitner has turned into one of the top eight safeties in the league in just two years. If forgot that the offensive line gave up the fewest sacks in a season in team history last year. I forgot that we have the SEVEN DWARFS playing at WR and as long as they work hard good things will happen.

 

The reason teams like NE and the Giants can afford to draft six D-Lineman every year is because they spent drafts a few years before building up their offensive firepower and making smart additions in the offseason. So far, the Bills have followed that pattern and have been doing well since the change in administration. Yes, getting another pass rusher is important. Yes, adding talent at CB is a good idea. Those are important too, but if we don't take a receiver who can take some pressure off of Lee Evans, the offense is going to suck. Defense is important, but if you can't score points, you're going to lose the game. Or ten or eleven of them. When we took Whitner, we didn't draft the best player available. We drafted for need and that has, IMO worked out pretty well. Whitner has been very good at safety. We also drafted Ko Simpson and Ashton Youboty. The Bills needed help in the secondary that draft and they needed it badly. So they drafted for it, and two of the three haven't been bad. Simpson played well his rookie year, and looked great. We'll find out this year if those preliminary showings were the real deal. Youboty is at the make or break point, but he did start to show up at the end of last year, and that INT against the Giants was a heck of a play.

 

If you have a need at position, it is NOT A LUXURY PICK. A LUXURY PICK this year would be the Bills taking Rashard Mendenhall at number 11. That would be the Bills taking Joe Flacco at number 11. We don't have needs there. We have a glaring need for a WR and taking one the first would be neither reach nor a luxury pick. And to compare this FO with Matt Millen if they take a receiver is just ludicrous. We've spent nine of our last sixteen picks on improving the defense and have only drafted on offense at positions of need, three of those picks being O-Line in later rounds. We need an infusion of talent at WR and TE and this is the year to do it.

[Mickey]

When we have a coach that loves to win with the run game and tough D......

You need to define what you mean by "reach"???

 

When our pick comes up at #11, the question will be, given our needs and the talent still on the board, who is the best pick for our team? If we take that guy, whoever he is, will you condemn it as a "reach" if he was rated 3 spots lower by Mel Kiper?

 

To me, a reach is when you know that the same guy would still be there when you next pick comes up or that you have a trading partner allowing you to move down, pick up another pick and still get the same guy. That, especially in the first half of the first round is virtually never the case. For example, if we think the Thomas is our guy, I highly doubt he would still be there when we pick in the second. At the same time, trade downs are the exception, not the rule. I don't see any teams picking after us that are so in love with some other pick that they are going to trade up. Especially not with only 10 minutes on the clock to arrange such a deal. I think its rare to have a player so good that others will trade up for him but not so good that the team with the original pick isn't going to take him themselves.

 

The trade ups are far more likley later in the draft when its clear that a couple guys have slipped beyond where most teams interested in them would have thought. That is when they start thinking that they might actually have a shot at so and so in the second when they thought he'd be long gone by then. It happens that way every year, nothing new.

[ax4782]

You need to define what you mean by "reach"???

 

When our pick comes up at #11, the question will be, given our needs and the talent still on the board, who is the best pick for our team? If we take that guy, whoever he is, will you condemn it as a "reach" if he was rated 3 spots lower by Mel Kiper?

 

To me, a reach is when you know that the same guy would still be there when you next pick comes up or that you have a trading partner allowing you to move down, pick up another pick and still get the same guy. That, especially in the first half of the first round is virtually never the case. For example, if we think the Thomas is our guy, I highly doubt he would still be there when we pick in the second. At the same time, trade downs are the exception, not the rule. I don't see any teams picking after us that are so in love with some other pick that they are going to trade up. Especially not with only 10 minutes on the clock to arrange such a deal. I think its rare to have a player so good that others will trade up for him but not so good that the team with the original pick isn't going to take him themselves.

 

The trade ups are far more likley later in the draft when its clear that a couple guys have slipped beyond where most teams interested in them would have thought. That is when they start thinking that they might actually have a shot at so and so in the second when they thought he'd be long gone by then. It happens that way every year, nothing new.

 

Nice post.

[Ramius]

The same "professionals" who have steered this team to irrelevance the past 10 years?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NFL_f...-season_drought

 

I'm sorry that your Bills myopia prevents you from being able to distinguish the difference between the way the Bills were run for 5 years under TD and the way they have been run for the past 2 years. Lumping them all together is a simple minded answer.

[John from Riverside]

Taking a Wide Receiver high is a luxury pick, one that you make when you're set at other key positions (unless of course, you are Matt Millen).

 

Yes, the Bills need a WR -- but they also need to improve their pass rush, their pass defense, their defensive line, and offensive line. The Bills should take the best player available -- and if they think that a WR is the best player available at #11, chances are pretty good that they're DEAD wrong... just like they were dead wrong when they thought that Whitner was the best player available at #8, and just like they were dead wrong when they deemed Lee Evans the best player available at #12. While Lee Evans is a good player, there's no question that Wilfork and Harris have made a far greater impact in keeping their teams competitive and would have been better selections.

 

Is it any coincidence that the Bills and Lions have the longest post-season drought in the NFL behind only the Arizona Cardinals?

 

I think not.

 

Dawg a couple of questions

 

- How was Whitner the wrong pick?

- How was Lee Evans teh wrong pick?

- Have we not done things in free agency to improve our defensive line? What about the Marcus Stroud and Spencer signings? Kavika Mitchell?

- Did we not invest a huge amount of money in our OL last year? Did they not improve?

 

I agree that another O linemen is needed....someone who can challenge at the Center position and be a guy who can back up at all the positions.....but you dont use your 1st round pick on a backup player unless your team is stacked. I really dont consider WR or TE to be luxery picks we absolutely need them.

 

I am not opposed to taking a wideout in the 2nd and a TE in the 3rd based on whatever we do......but who can we get at WR in the 2nd realistically? Douecet maybe?

[Mickey]

Oh yes, I forgot about the over 150 million dollars we have already shelled out to upgrade the O and D lines. I forgot about all those offseason moves that people were crowing about with Stroud, Mitchell, James and Johnson coming in. I forgot that Whitner has turned into one of the top eight safeties in the league in just two years. If forgot that the offensive line gave up the fewest sacks in a season in team history last year. I forgot that we have the SEVEN DWARFS playing at WR and as long as they work hard good things will happen.

 

The reason teams like NE and the Giants can afford to draft six D-Lineman every year is because they spent drafts a few years before building up their offensive firepower and making smart additions in the offseason. So far, the Bills have followed that pattern and have been doing well since the change in administration. Yes, getting another pass rusher is important. Yes, adding talent at CB is a good idea. Those are important too, but if we don't take a receiver who can take some pressure off of Lee Evans, the offense is going to suck. Defense is important, but if you can't score points, you're going to lose the game. Or ten or eleven of them. When we took Whitner, we didn't draft the best player available. We drafted for need and that has, IMO worked out pretty well. Whitner has been very good at safety. We also drafted Ko Simpson and Ashton Youboty. The Bills needed help in the secondary that draft and they needed it badly. So they drafted for it, and two of the three haven't been bad. Simpson played well his rookie year, and looked great. We'll find out this year if those preliminary showings were the real deal. Youboty is at the make or break point, but he did start to show up at the end of last year, and that INT against the Giants was a heck of a play.

 

If you have a need at position, it is NOT A LUXURY PICK. A LUXURY PICK this year would be the Bills taking Rashard Mendenhall at number 11. That would be the Bills taking Joe Flacco at number 11. We don't have needs there. We have a glaring need for a WR and taking one the first would be neither reach nor a luxury pick. And to compare this FO with Matt Millen if they take a receiver is just ludicrous. We've spent nine of our last sixteen picks on improving the defense and have only drafted on offense at positions of need, three of those picks being O-Line in later rounds. We need an infusion of talent at WR and TE and this is the year to do it.

I wouldn't put too much store on that stat about sacks allowed. That was the worst offense in team history and this team has put some pretty bad offenses on the field over the years so that is saying something. I think the low sacks had a lot more to do with series after series of run, run, check down and punt than it had to do with our revamped offensive line. Five of the eleven guys on the field for the offense, six if you count the TE, were offensive lineman. They have to take their share of the blame for what was the worst offensive performance in the history of the Buffalo Bills.

[Dawgg]

Oh yes, I forgot about the over 150 million dollars we have already shelled out to upgrade the O and D lines. I forgot about all those offseason moves that people were crowing about with Stroud, Mitchell, James and Johnson coming in. I forgot that Whitner has turned into one of the top eight safeties in the league in just two years. If forgot that the offensive line gave up the fewest sacks in a season in team history last year. I forgot that we have the SEVEN DWARFS playing at WR and as long as they work hard good things will happen.

 

I certainly agree that WR is a need, and a big one at that. But that doesn't mean you reach for one at #11. If the Bills have the opportunity to take a shut-down corner or a very good lineman at #11, they should simply close their eyes and take him. Yes, the Bills spent tons of $ on the offensive and defensive lines -- that doesn't mean that they have become strengths. While I like the Stroud acquisition, I don't expect him to be a savior by any means. He has a lot of mileage on him and you have to wonder why Jacksonville was so willing to part with him in a trade to a team they will might be competing with for a wildcard berth.

 

There will be good, tall receivers available in the second round. Malcom Kelly's stock has dropped considerably. James Hardy and Jordy Nelson look like very solid prospects. I think the overall TEAM will be better if they take the best player available in Rd 1 and take the top receiver or tight end who falls to their lap in Rd 2.

[Ramius]

Oh yes, I forgot about the over 150 million dollars we have already shelled out to upgrade the O and D lines. I forgot about all those offseason moves that people were crowing about with Stroud, Mitchell, James and Johnson coming in. I forgot that Whitner has turned into one of the top eight safeties in the league in just two years. If forgot that the offensive line gave up the fewest sacks in a season in team history last year. I forgot that we have the SEVEN DWARFS playing at WR and as long as they work hard good things will happen.

 

The reason teams like NE and the Giants can afford to draft six D-Lineman every year is because they spent drafts a few years before building up their offensive firepower and making smart additions in the offseason. So far, the Bills have followed that pattern and have been doing well since the change in administration. Yes, getting another pass rusher is important. Yes, adding talent at CB is a good idea. Those are important too, but if we don't take a receiver who can take some pressure off of Lee Evans, the offense is going to suck. Defense is important, but if you can't score points, you're going to lose the game. Or ten or eleven of them. When we took Whitner, we didn't draft the best player available. We drafted for need and that has, IMO worked out pretty well. Whitner has been very good at safety. We also drafted Ko Simpson and Ashton Youboty. The Bills needed help in the secondary that draft and they needed it badly. So they drafted for it, and two of the three haven't been bad. Simpson played well his rookie year, and looked great. We'll find out this year if those preliminary showings were the real deal. Youboty is at the make or break point, but he did start to show up at the end of last year, and that INT against the Giants was a heck of a play.

 

If you have a need at position, it is NOT A LUXURY PICK. A LUXURY PICK this year would be the Bills taking Rashard Mendenhall at number 11. That would be the Bills taking Joe Flacco at number 11. We don't have needs there. We have a glaring need for a WR and taking one the first would be neither reach nor a luxury pick. And to compare this FO with Matt Millen if they take a receiver is just ludicrous. We've spent nine of our last sixteen picks on improving the defense and have only drafted on offense at positions of need, three of those picks being O-Line in later rounds. We need an infusion of talent at WR and TE and this is the year to do it.

 

Good post. Unfortunately, too many people look at the draft and declare, "If we do not draft position X, the draft is a failure," or "if we do draft position Y, we're going to go 4-12" instead of looking at the talent we did acquire.

[Dawgg]

Dawg a couple of questions

 

- How was Whitner the wrong pick?

- How was Lee Evans teh wrong pick?

- Have we not done things in free agency to improve our defensive line? What about the Marcus Stroud and Spencer signings? Kavika Mitchell?

- Did we not invest a huge amount of money in our OL last year? Did they not improve?

 

I agree that another O linemen is needed....someone who can challenge at the Center position and be a guy who can back up at all the positions.....but you dont use your 1st round pick on a backup player unless your team is stacked. I really dont consider WR or TE to be luxery picks we absolutely need them.

 

I am not opposed to taking a wideout in the 2nd and a TE in the 3rd based on whatever we do......but who can we get at WR in the 2nd realistically? Douecet maybe?

 

John -- I just don't think you can blindly look at the team's biggest need and just force yourself to address that position with a high pick. You have to consider who the best player is available, regardless of position. When Whitner was taken at #8, he was not the best player available at that point. It wasn't even close. He's a nice player and looks good in red, white and blue -- but he wasn't the best player available when the Bills' selection came around.

 

Same goes for Lee Evans. With Pat Williams walking in free agency, we chose a wide receiver? With Tommie Harris and Vince Wilfork on the board? Again, Lee is a nice player.... but these guys have 4 Pro Bowls between them and have been dominant.

 

I like the free agency moves... the lines were addressed, but the party's not over yet. This team is not just a few players away and they need to build on that foundation. Another pass rusher or a shut down corner will be a far better use of that pick than a WR. In the 2nd round, the Bills can take the best WR or TE that falls to their lap -- and make no mistake there will be some very good prospects available.

 

Anyway, I'm hopeful that the Bills won't reach for a WR and will address it later, knowing that they can probably do so after the first round.

[John from Riverside]

I wouldn't put too much store on that stat about sacks allowed. That was the worst offense in team history and this team has put some pretty bad offenses on the field over the years so that is saying something. I think the low sacks had a lot more to do with series after series of run, run, check down and punt than it had to do with our revamped offensive line. Five of the eleven guys on the field for the offense, six if you count the TE, were offensive lineman. They have to take their share of the blame for what was the worst offensive performance in the history of the Buffalo Bills.

 

I agree with this...while our sack total would have improved anyway it would have been higher had we been taking more chances downfield. But at the same time you have to at least show the threat of that to loosen up things for the running game.

 

We didnt give up a lot of sacks....but we didn't have many big plays either and you need big plays every so often to win games.