bills_red Posted March 30, 2008 Share Posted March 30, 2008 http://www.buffalorumblings.com/story/2008/3/29/214618/897 By Ron From NMPosted on Sat Mar 29, 2008 at 09:46:18 PM EST Ah, that's much better. The double returns wasn't working but the p inside of the sideways carats did the trick. Thanks Kurupt. I looked at each lineman on every play during the 14 games my recorder worked (Broncos and Jags games not didn't record). Yes, it did take quite a while and, yes, I have no life. I noted each lineman's performance on every play as good (meaning they did something that really advanced the play, pancaked a defender or did something else impressive), decent (meaning they did their job well enough for the play to go forward but nothing particularly noteworthy) and poor (meaning they screwed the pooch in some way). I then assigned grades of 95% for good plays, 75% for decent ones and 55% for bad ones and then averaged them--keeping passing and running plays separate. I also kept track of killed plays (meaning their individual screw up killed the play) and killed drives (meaning their individual screw up killed a play which subsequently killed a drive). I was not, I should note, looking at why a lineman, say, kept getting pushed into the backfield (bad technique, bad footwork, lack of hustle, etc). The game film on TV simply doesn't allow for that kind of detailed analysis. As a whole, the team had 384 run plays and 433 pass plays during those 14 games. The linemen killed 40 (10.4%) of the running plays and 30 (6.9%) of the pass plays. Think about that for a second. Every 10th running play was derailed by one of the linemen screwing up. Yikes! The 6.9% of passing plays the linemen killed don't include plays where the QB (either one) was flattened after getting the ball to a receiver. If you throw in the bad plays (which include killed plays and plays where linemen missed their blocks and/or got the QB whacked), 92 of them (21.3%), Losman and Edwards got knocked around and/or ran for their lives every fifth play. That's just not good for a QB's confidence. Peters graded out at 76.9% in the run game and killed 1.2% of the plays he was in for. He came out at 74.5% in the pass game and killed 0.9% of his pass plays. Dock was very durable and was in for every play. Dock graded out at 76.8% in the run game and killed 1.2% of run plays. He came out at 74.5% in the pass game and killed 0.8% of pass plays. Fowler, who also was in for every play, graded out at 72.5% and killed a whopping 4.4% of run plays. He did better on passing downs, coming out at 74.3% and killed 1.5% of pass plays. Butler graded out highest in the run game at 77.9% and killed 1.3% of run plays he was in. He came out at 74.7% in the pass game and killed 1.2% of pass plays he was in. Walker was in for all but 2 pass plays. He graded out at 75.8% in the run game and killed 2.1% of run plays. He graded out at 74.6% on pass plays and killed 2.2% of the plays he was in. Preston, in extremely limited action (12 run plays, 23 pass plays) was the worst lineman in the run, grading out at a flat 70% but with no killed plays. He came out at 73.3% on pass plays and killed 4.4% (1 of 23) pass plays for which he was on the field. The sample is too small to be meaningful, though it does track with the larger sample from the preseason. Chambers, also in extremely limited action (48 run plays, 56 pass plays) graded out at a surprisingly high 77.5% in the run game with no killed plays. He came out at 74.3% in the pass game and killed 1.8% of the plays (1 of 56) he was in for. Chambers was on the field for more plays as an extra lineman but I did not track those since he was a tackle eligible or tight end on those downs. You can see why the QBs like the left side of the line. Taken together Peters and Dock allowed a defender to disrupt pass plays only 1.5% of the time. The QBs got as much pressure due to Fowler or Butler or Walker as they got from Peters and Dock combined. On pass plays there is room for improvement at C, RG and RT. While the QBs get knocked around far more than the Brady's and Manning's of the world they each had opportunities to get the ball out. As a whole, the line does a decent job of pass blocking. However, it does get significant help from the backs and tight ends. I was stunned when I added it all up and saw that Walker got help on 11.1% of pass plays. That only counts when a back or tight end helped Walker, not when a back or tight tend picked up a defender and never touched Walker's. I would have thought it would have come out much, much lower. The assistance has trended downwards in the second half of the season but that's still a lot of downs where there is one less person for the QB to throw to. Some people seem to think center isn't an issue for Buffalo. Silly people! Fowler was responsible for killing 17 (42.5% of 40 run plays killed by the line). He needs to go, and not just where the DT pushes him. In watching the line I was struck by how many times NFL.com (game stats) or the announcers stated that Buffalo had run up the middle when they hadn't. Yes, the Bills often run where the middle of the line began the play but they almost never run between the center and (either) guard. Rather, the guard and tackle from one side crash down the line creating (the top of)an 'L' (or backwards 'L') with the center, other guard and other tackle forming the bottom of the 'L'. The tight end and wide receiver form the other wall (parallel to the top of the 'L') to create the running lane. The blocking scheme literally takes into account the fact that Fowler can't drive virtually any DT off of the ball. Butler, on the other hand, is a real find. He would definitely make the roster on the playoff teams and might even start for some of them. Watching him play it became clear why the staff likes him. He, alone amongst the Bills linemen, can be counted on to routinely finish off blocks. The others, by contrast, sometimes (not often but sometimes) quit before the whistle, allowing the guy they are blocking to get back into a slow to develop play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted March 30, 2008 Share Posted March 30, 2008 Was he even on the team last year GO BILLS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seq004 Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 http://www.buffalorumblings.com/story/2008/3/29/214618/897 Wow, single I would assume? I do agree with you. In fact I think the Bills should draft a center in the 3rd or 4th round. He gets pushed around a lot due to his size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 I'm sure the Bills offensive coaches realize this, and are biding their time until a replacement can be found for Fowler. Unfortunately, the draft has no premier prospect at the position. He started in Minnesota when Matt Birk was injured, and has never proven himself as anything more than a depth lineman. It's also noteworthy that Buffalo gave Walker help so often. I'd heard prior to the season that Walker lacked decent lateral movement. It's similar in principle to 2006 when the Bills OL gave Pennington so much help with a TE. A RT doesn't need the physical skill set as a LT, but if they can't run plays without providing the RT help, it's a problem. The OL is better than the previous 5 years, but it'll need to be better than last year for this team to make the playoffs. Lynch and Evans are the only playmakers, and time and again Evans was smothered by secondaries. All in all, thorough analysis, but eye-opening as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsD#1in2008 Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 if fowler sucks so bad why are the coaches so high on him....? ya so idk...just give the guy a break GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Stroud for Pro Bowl 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Thanks for posting that. This is exactly the kind of post I like to see -- while keeping in mind that a different set of eyes might see different things. I'm not saying your word is gospel but I appreciate the effort. And yes, Fowler sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Watch out for Christian Gaddis and Jason Whittle. I was a fan of Gaddis in the preseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 if fowler sucks so bad why are the coaches so high on him....? ya so idk...just give the guy a break GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Stroud for Pro Bowl 2008 Who says the coaches are high on him? I'd bet my lunch that neither Brown nor Kugler are high on Fowler, but realize they've got nothing else. Anyone who went to the games these last two seasons knows that running up the middle is a no-go, because Fowler, as the initial post makes, gets blown up far too often into the backfield. Before doing your impression of a text message, realize that Fowler isn't an NFL caliber starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lt. Dan's Revenge Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Wow, single I would assume? I do agree with you. In fact I think the Bills should draft a center in the 3rd or 4th round. He gets pushed around a lot due to his size. I agree, I really like that kid Steve Justice out of Wake...If he's available in the 3rd or 4th I'd love to see him come on board to either push Fowler, or better yet beat him out for his job by September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Move Butler to center, take Clady and play him at RG for a year, then he can replace Walker at RT the following year. It sounds so easy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fewell733 Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 interesting. one potential problem is there is no data to compare this to. Centers generally are the smallest guys on the line, so they're not going to be moving people too much. It could be that centers in general are more often responsible for offensive struggles because of their size and they have the most responsibility to call blocking assignments and snap the ball. that said, Fowler hasn't been great, but there is likely no answer for next year in this draft. Steve justice is a solid 25 lbs lighter than Fowler, and totally unproven as a pro. A guy like Roy Schuening or Mike Pollack could more seriously push Fowler - but we've got other fish to fry this draft. I think we'll have to see how he does with what should be more competent play calling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayFinkle Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 So this guy graded offensive lineman by watching the television feed and by not knowing what the lineman's actual assignment was on the play. I appriciate his effort, but I put veeeeeeery little weight to his results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBilliever Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Well, other than Olin Kreutz, most offensive centers are the ones who get beat. I base this, of course, on no facts whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_red Posted March 31, 2008 Author Share Posted March 31, 2008 Move Butler to center, take Clady and play him at RG for a year, then he can replace Walker at RT the following year. It sounds so easy... LOL, Clady would be a Fowler at G. If we draft any OL guy at 11 it should be Albert who is a killer G and could move to T later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In space no one can hear Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Watch out for Christian Gaddis and Jason Whittle. I was a fan of Gaddis in the preseason. What did Gaddis due to earn your devotion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eSJayDee Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Yes, we all say that Fowler sucks & gets blown up too often, but I'd be curious to compare his stats/performance to that of other Cs. Bear in mind, he starts the play w/ his hand between his legs. I would imagine that's a considerable handicap, especially in run blocking. As for the OL being responsible for ~10% of running plays "killed", depending on just how you evaluate that, that could be conceivably good. Linemen acct for over 50% of the blockers on a running play and the guys they're blocking get paid, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 What did Gaddis due to earn your devotion? It was preseason, but he was very strong in the run game. Got good push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Long Beach Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Well for certain, Fowler is still one of our best 5 lineman. Another good thing, the oline is NO LONGER the weakest position on our team. Thank God for that. It's been horrible for the previous 5 years or so. Of course, we have precious little depth. Preston and Whittle. Not much. So we clearly still need more draft choices to pick up a few lineman and hope we hit on one. Still I'm happy that we've managed to upgrade to at least a middle-of-the road OL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Was he even on the team last year GO BILLS! That's it OLine number 1. Just kidding. Seriously thank you for your analysis. Nice to see some very useful informaiton that is more than an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 I agree, I really like that kid Steve Justice out of Wake...If he's available in the 3rd or 4th I'd love to see him come on board to either push Fowler, or better yet beat him out for his job by September. How big is Justice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts