MDH Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Correct me if I am wrong, but were we not up by 9 points in the 4qtr last year, in Foxboro?? And did we not kinda suck last year and still gave them a run for thier money on national TV?....was that last year?? If we play well, we can win...not saying we are gonig to win mind you..but if we play well, we can. These Pats are good, but they are not the Seahawks, the Bengels, the Pathers or even the Colts...I think those teams are very good teams. The Pats are good, but not very good, and we can beat them if we just play smart football 762122[/snapback] I never said it wasn't possible for the Bills to win. I said there is no way the Bills catch the Pats off guard. New England will be roaring to go. If Buffalo wins this game it won't be because they caught the Pats off guard or looking past the Bills. That being said I don't believe the Bills will win. They'll lose by roughly a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 The problem isn't getting pressure on Brady, it's how you get pressure on Brady, because it doesn't affect him all that much 90% of the time. If you need to consistently blitz to get pressure on Brady, he'll kill you, as he often has. If your front four get pressure on Brady, you have a chance because he will throw 3-4 really dumb passes a game. 762057[/snapback] Exactly...Jerry Gray kept sending the house on every play...and Brady made his pay....Hopefully Fewell knows when and where to pick his fight and uses pressue from the inside (Triplett, Anderson and Williams, McCargo) rather than from our Safeties.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyrite Gal Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Well, the Vegas line is not arbitrary. In fact, I think the line was set with the thought process that the Pats front 7 will completly dismantle the Bills porous offensive line. As a result, this will cause turnovers from a young inexperienced quarterback, which the savvy Pats will ultimately convert into touchdowns. Is this what will really happen?? Well, thats why they play the game! 762101[/snapback] The betting line is not arbitrary at all. It was set based on the market of betters to encourage as much as possible 50/50 selection of action on each team. The bookies will make a profit in any case as they take a cut in the fee for booking the bets. the line is designed to have the amount of money paid out to the winners be covered by the amount paid out by the losers. if this happens, then the bookies get the total fee for booing the bets paid to them as profit. If 50/50 is not achieved, then the bookies are gambling as they will in fact hold onto more money if the favorites lose, but they will have to subsidize the amount of winnings not covered by the bets on the losing side with the money they are getting fr booking the bets. To some degree, the line does reflect the relative strengths of the teams as that is what it takes to get the action 50/50. However, pure rationality obviously does not determine the choices bettors make in aggregate. The aggregate is more rational than one individual, but in this case because the Pats have been so successful over the past 4-5 years and the Bills have sucked so badly over the last 5 years that a large point spread is necessary to make the action 50/50. Add into that the factor that the Bills team of the 06 and their team of 05 have different leadership and different schemes and that the 06 Pats are seeing a continuation of the mass migration of SB successes like Weis/Crennel/McGinest etc. and of course it simply takes a lot more points to achieve 50/50 action than can rationally be justified by a raw assessment of the teams. As far as the line setting, it is set so that the bookies are not gambling at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Well, the Vegas line is not arbitrary. In fact, I think the line was set with the thought process that the Pats front 7 will completly dismantle the Bills porous offensive line. As a result, this will cause turnovers from a young inexperienced quarterback, which the savvy Pats will ultimately convert into touchdowns. Is this what will really happen?? Well, thats why they play the game! 762101[/snapback] If, in fact, the oddsmakers were thinking along the lines you state, namely that the Pats will dismantle our O-line, JP will cough up the ball, and the Pats will run up the score, I would think the opening spread would have been much higher, no? Actually, the Vegas line is quite arbitrary and, while taking into account some of what you mention, fluctuates mainly due to player injuries and - more importantly - wagers. So as game time draws nearer, the spread will go up or down not because our O-line became more or less porous in the previous 24 or 48 hours, but because too many wagerers are placing their money on New England. Buffalo 31 Patsies 10 Bet the house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary M Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 There has to be a time when you say enough is enough!! The Patriots still getting favored by at least 8 points! I know the Bills have not proved anything yet but people around these parts have to think that the Bills can pull this off. Isn't time to put this whole Patriots cloak of invincibility behind us? The Bills are due and it looks like everything they could wish for is in place for week one. Huge underdogs, away, Patriots opener, more Patriots injuries...I am no longer looking at this game with guarded optimism, I am looking for a freakin' victory and nothing less. It's time to knock this monkey (i mean gorilla) off the Bills backs and never look behind. I guess I am just shocked as to how the Pats keep pulling things out of thin air. Can Brady and Coach B really carry the load again???? I think not! 762032[/snapback] They still have the refs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary M Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Uh, a 2005 10-6 playoff team playing a 2005 5-11 team at home? 762070[/snapback] Uh, I think the Bills are a very different team from last year. I think they lost 4 games just on bad coaching alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Uh, I think the Bills are a very different team from last year. I think they lost 4 games just on bad coaching alone. 762209[/snapback] A very different team for sure, but are they a better team than last year ? I think so, but until they play for real, we wont know until Sunday ! Go Bills ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob in STL Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 There has to be a time when you say enough is enough!! The Patriots still getting favored by at least 8 points! I know the Bills have not proved anything yet but people around these parts have to think that the Bills can pull this off. Isn't time to put this whole Patriots cloak of invincibility behind us? The Bills are due and it looks like everything they could wish for is in place for week one. Huge underdogs, away, Patriots opener, more Patriots injuries...I am no longer looking at this game with guarded optimism, I am looking for a freakin' victory and nothing less. It's time to knock this monkey (i mean gorilla) off the Bills backs and never look behind. I guess I am just shocked as to how the Pats keep pulling things out of thin air. Can Brady and Coach B really carry the load again???? I think not! 762032[/snapback] If we avoid stupid penalties and negative plays we have a chance. The game will be won or lost in the trenches. It does not matter so much as to who is carrying or recieving the ball. If Brady has time he will make the completions. If their RB has a big hole he will gain yards. If our OL does not match up and control the line of scrimmage our defense will be on the field for too long and bad things will happen. I think we have a good chance but don't think that the injuries alone are that going to stop the Pats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Yep, looks like Bruschi, Warren, and Maroney will miss the game, with the first 2 not having practiced in over a week, and with Maroney practicing yesterday but wearing a brace and limping. Moreover Maroney's unproven, despite all the hype he got in the pre-season. The Bills need to take advantage of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Yep, looks like Bruschi, Warren, and Maroney will miss the game, with the first 2 not having practiced in over a week, and with Maroney practicing yesterday but wearing a brace and limping. Moreover Maroney's unproven, despite all the hype he got in the pre-season. The Bills need to take advantage of this. 762611[/snapback] In other words: The Patriots are ripe for the picking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 A very different team for sure, but are they a better team than last year ? I think so, but until they play for real, we wont know until Sunday ! Go Bills ! 762215[/snapback] Posts like this are all over the place and they all mean the same thing. I will have to continue to crawl the walls of my place waiting for Sunday to get here....Thanks alot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Is Dillon no longer with the Pats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike formerly from Florida Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 They still have the refs. 762203[/snapback] Exactly! Even if we play a tight game, there will be a game-turning flag thrown for a mysterious holding call that will give the Pats the game. There's no way the powerful media machine will let the lowly, small market, invisible Bills win this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gggbills Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 I never said it wasn't possible for the Bills to win. I said there is no way the Bills catch the Pats off guard. New England will be roaring to go. If Buffalo wins this game it won't be because they caught the Pats off guard or looking past the Bills. That being said I don't believe the Bills will win. They'll lose by roughly a TD. 762149[/snapback] Oh I know, the chances of us winning are slim. And you are right, a team that is that well coached will not be caught on guard. If we win this game, it will be because we simple out played them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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