Gambler Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 We all know that the Bills defense ranked 2nd in the NFL last year. These rankings are based on how many yards the defense allowed. You can't read any article or listen to any sportscaster without it being mentioned several times. I think there may be a couple of ways at analyzing a defense that may be more informative than just "yards allowed". First of all, the scoreboard is the most important statistic in football. Therefore, I believe that "points allowed" is inherently a better measure of a defense. How well does a defense keep the opponent from scoring seems more important than just yards allowed. In this respect, the Bills defense ranked 8th in the league. The top three teams were Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and New England. However, there may be another way to analyze the efficiency of the defense using both yards allowed and points allowed. The defense which may bend a little and give up a few more yards, but gets really tough when the opponent gets near scoring range is indeed a very good defense. A statistical way to view this is to ask the question, " How many points does the defense allow per 100 yards gained against it?" Teams that give up meaningless yards, but are extremely tough to score against are top defenses. If you divide the points allowed by the defense by the numbers of yards allowed (using 100 yard units) you get a number which ranks the efficiency of the defense. I feel that this defensive efficiency rank is a more accurate reflection of the true strength of the defense. It also reflects IMHO that a defense which gets tough in the scoring zone is the superior defense. Defenses which perform during crunch time are the best. So how do the Bills rank using this statistic? Buffalo ranked number 21 in 2004. There were times last year when the defense had "must stop" situations (i.e. after a Bledsoe fumble in their own end) and they failed to stop the opponent at the key time. They didn't give up a lot of yards in those situations, but they didn't show the trademarks of a top defense either. So which teams ranked highest on this measure of defensive efficiency? Philadelphia and New England were 1 and 2. Last year's Superbowl contestants! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan Trapped in Pats Land Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 To me, you have to consider Points Allowed, takeaways (including defensive TDs) and sacks. Those are all directly, or closely related to points and field position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 3rd down effectiveness would be a real measuring stick. It seemed like the Bills made big plays on 1st and 2nd downs, only to cough one up on 3rd down. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 "Overall" rankings are certainly curious things. The 6 - 10 Skins were #3 overall, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jad1 Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 Points allowed and turnovers. If you keep the other team out of the endzone, and give the ball back to the offense with good field position, any other stat is just gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeBill Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 Pittsburgh's defense was severely skewed because their offense had the ball for an obscene amount of time. Time of Possession has to figure in to see how good your defense really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 Pittsburgh's defense was severely skewed because their offense had the ball for an obscene amount of time. Time of Possession has to figure in to see how good your defense really is. 421931[/snapback] That is an excellent point. Their OL was so strong and deep, they were able to play ball control and keep the defense fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crows57 Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 This looks similar to John Clayton's article at ESPN.com at the moment. Football Outsider's rankings do a great job of mixing in everything to give what I think are the best rankings. If you're not familiar with it it's explained here. I'm not so sure about their evaluation of individual players given that so much of football is based on what your teammates are doing, but I think their team offensive, defensive and ST rankings are years ahead of what any tradition outlet does. The Bills ranked 1st in 2004 in team defense by their metrics. Certainly ranking defenses by yards allowed is silly, but tons of football analysts will still use it. Going on a tangent, have you ever realized how little sense it makes to rank baseball defenses by ERA (runs allowed), but then rank hitters by batting average instead of runs (not that runs are the be all end all)? Point being, what's given in the media as analysis is at most times simply awful and catering to the LCD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 That is an excellent point. Their OL was so strong and deep, they were able to play ball control and keep the defense fresh. 421964[/snapback] Dear Bill--- I'm Dead, quit beating me. --The Horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt in KC Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 A statistical way to view this is to ask the question, " How many points does the defense allow per 100 yards gained against it?" Teams that give up meaningless yards, but are extremely tough to score against are top defenses. If you divide the points allowed by the defense by the numbers of yards allowed (using 100 yard units) you get a number which ranks the efficiency of the defense. I feel that this defensive efficiency rank is a more accurate reflection of the true strength of the defense. It also reflects IMHO that a defense which gets tough in the scoring zone is the superior defense. Defenses which perform during crunch time are the best. 421902[/snapback] So, for 2004, the Bills allowed 284 points, and approx 4227 yards. I divide this and I get .067 for their efficiency. So you're saying that this is worse than a Team B that allowed, say 550 points and 10,000 yards?? I think your model might be missing something..... Team B might be more efficient, but they clearly stink. I do think that points allowed is important, and think that ST and offensive-turnover points should be excluded when measuring the performance of the D. To add another consideration: is it a sign of a bad D if the coaches give the second stringers a chance to play (and give up points) when the game is out of reach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 Not only were the Bills #2 in yards allowed in '04, but they were #1 in forced turnovers, #3 in sacks, and #2 against the run. Take your pick of which category is more important, it matters not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 So, for 2004, the Bills allowed 284 points, and approx 4227 yards. I divide this and I get .067 for their efficiency. So you're saying that this is worse than a Team B that allowed, say 550 points and 10,000 yards?? I think your model might be missing something..... Team B might be more efficient, but they clearly stink. I do think that points allowed is important, and think that ST and offensive-turnover points should be excluded when measuring the performance of the D. To add another consideration: is it a sign of a bad D if the coaches give the second stringers a chance to play (and give up points) when the game is out of reach? 421992[/snapback] I would say this is a model, and as such, would have realistic parameters. I would throw out your team that gave up 550 points and 10,000 yards because these are not numbers that an actual NFL would, or has ever, give up. Points probably, yards, no. It does however "break" the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 We all know that the Bills defense ranked 2nd in the NFL last year. These rankings are based on how many yards the defense allowed. You can't read any article or listen to any sportscaster without it being mentioned several times. 421902[/snapback] I like you idea, and have thought about coming up with something like the NFL's QB rating. Gives different weighting factors to certain criteria. Hank Stram had some type of "system" that took a lot of things into account to predict SB winners. I guess it was right like every year except like one? Yards allowed Points allowed Points scored Yards/Point Red Zone Efficiency Sacks Turnovers Avg/Opp. starting field position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 To me, you have to consider Points Allowed, takeaways (including defensive TDs) and sacks. Those are all directly, or closely related to points and field position. 421906[/snapback] Hey Pats Land! You listen to WEEI today? It's Patriots Monday, so Pete Shepard and Fred Smerlas had the knee pads on, giving Team Perfect the biggest on-air knob job you ever heard! Do you know why the Patriots didn't beat the Eagles by 30 points in the Super Bowl? Because the Eagles were an inferior opponent and the Pats couldn't get it up for them! W!T!F!!!!! You can't make crap like this up. They were also discussing who were AFC playoff teams, and of course, no mention of the Bills. Man, these fans need to have their team stomped by someone, preferably us! PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 In the last couple years, two things that don't show up in any stat rating have been very evident on the Bills. One, is that they have VERY often held a team to a FG or even no points after an offensive turnover very deep in their territory. They do this time and time again. The other is that when they REALLY have to make a stop, they only do it about half the time, which is not a great defense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKC Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 If you divide the points allowed by the defense by the numbers of yards allowed (using 100 yard units) you get a number which ranks the efficiency of the defense. I feel that this defensive efficiency rank is a more accurate reflection of the true strength of the defense. It also reflects IMHO that a defense which gets tough in the scoring zone is the superior defense. Defenses which perform during crunch time are the best. Last year's Superbowl contestants! 421902[/snapback] I can't see without creating a formula that includes some strength of opposing offense, etc., how you would find a better indicator than Points Allowed. Problem with formulas is they are inherently flawed. Consider the almost laughable College Bowl Championship or the Passer Ratings that rewards the little dink and pitch West Coast QBs while punishing QBs with NFL quality arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambler Posted August 29, 2005 Author Share Posted August 29, 2005 Not only were the Bills #2 in yards allowed in '04, but they were #1 in forced turnovers, #3 in sacks, and #2 against the run. Take your pick of which category is more important, it matters not. 422004[/snapback] At the end of the day, statistics other than wins and losses don't matter(particularly playoff wins and losses). My point about the Bills defense was to indicate that just because they were "ranked 2nd" by the league guidelines for ranking, does not mean they were necessarily the 2nd best defense. I get tired of hearing the oft repeated phrase, "the Bills had the 2nd best defense" in the NFL in 2004. Another overlooked factor in evaluating the defense is the strength of the opposing offenses they faced. The Bills had one win over the Jets who ranked 17th in pts. scored, win over St.Louis ranked 19th, win over Arizona ranked 26th, two wins over Miami ranked 27th, win over Cleveland ranked 28th, and a win over San Fran ranked 30th!! In addition, they lost to Oakland ranked 18th, lost to Baltimore ranked 20th and lost to Jax ranked 29th!! In other words, they played the Who's Who list of bad offenses last year. Has anyone considered that before? Will they be able to play the worst offenses again this year? I don't think so. KC,SD,NE were ranked 2nd,3rd,4th. Den,Atl,Carolina,New Orleans were all in the top 16. Who would you say had the better defense last year Buffalo or New England? If you go by the NFL stats the Bills were #2 and NE was #9. Consider this: In the fourth quarter when games are decided, the Bills shut out only two opponents St. Louis and Cleveland. New England shut out 8 opponents in the 4th quarter! I am a lifelong Bills fan, but I have to point out some objective facts so that people don't get so carried away by the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 I can't see without creating a formula that includes some strength of opposing offense, etc., how you would find a better indicator than Points Allowed. Problem with formulas is they are inherently flawed. Consider the almost laughable College Bowl Championship or the Passer Ratings that rewards the little dink and pitch West Coast QBs while punishing QBs with NFL quality arms. 422067[/snapback] Agreed. Scoreboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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