Matching up with playoff contenders

[Mikie2times]

 

I wanted to take a step back from the week to week emotional roller coaster, because honestly, this season has felt ugly at times. We’ve been inconsistent, we’ve had roster holes, the injuries have piled up, and there have been stretches where we looked downright horrendous. But when you zoom out and look at the actual playoff field… it’s kind of stunning. The worst outcome for us is basically a 50/50 matchup, and probably not even against Mahomes. Could we lose to several of these teams? Sure. But the idea that we wouldn’t be right in every single one of these games is pretty silly. All of these matchups are close on paper or lean our way.

 

I ordered them by how dangerous I think they are to us, and it made me feel way better about our prospects. Probably as good as I ever have felt. 

 

Houston

If this matchup happens, it’s going to be tight. They’ve played Allen as well as anyone the last two years. 23–20 loss last year, 23–19 loss this year. Both games were basically a pass protection disaster for us and our offense slogged. It will be a race to 21. A true toss up.

 

Field: Colts, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals

Colts seem cooked, but the other three would all be battles. Nothing new there. Ideally we avoid these teams as long as possible, but none of them are some unstoppable monster. All 50/50 type outcomes.

 

Jacksonville

A tick ahead of Buffalo in DVOA and playing really well. Coen has completely changed their trajectory. They’ve got legit wins: Chiefs, 49ers, Texans, Chargers. Matchup wise, their defense is built to take away the run. Offensively they’ll try to run a ton, even though the efficiency is mediocre. They’ve had our number a bit, but how much does that really matter now? I see this one similar to Houston,  toss up, maybe slight edge to Buffalo.

 

Denver

Last year’s Denver team was actually rated better in DVOA than this year’s version. Last year’s playoff game was 13–7 halfway through the third quarter until the Ty Johnson 4th down play cracked it open. This year’s Denver? Not as good. It’ll be a game, but Buffalo should have the edge.

 

Los Angeles 

DVOA basically has this team as a .500 group. Tons of OL injuries, very up and down, and outside of those early big wins vs KC and DEN, it’s been pretty uneven. They can’t stop the run well, and while they want to run a lot, they’re not efficient. This could be competitive for a bit, but Buffalo should have an edge. 

 

New England

This NE team is the lowest DVOA 11–2 team since 1978. Run defense is slipping. They don’t run the ball particularly well. Maye flashes but he’s still a young QB.

We all saw the first matchup, tons of things went wrong and it still came down to a FG. This is a Wild Card level team which isn't an insult to them. It's good progress.  We should win in Foxborough and I expect we will.

 

Pittsburgh

We just match up too well here. We own Tomlin lately, and they had no schematic answers on either side of the ball. Complete mismatch in the ground game and QB play. This is the most comfortable matchup on the board.

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Mikie2times

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I feel like Denver is massively overrated.  They lack special weapons on offense and Bo Nix’ ceiling is Andy Dalton.  They’re very good on defense but not quite in that way Houston is where even Josh is frustrated.

[ganesh]

That is why it is maddening that we lost our grip on the #1 seed.  Home field advantage in the playoffs would have been a great recipe to the SB.  
 

Playing Houston or Jacksonville on the road will be lot harder.  

[Kelly to Allen]

Texans and potentially KC are the toughest matchup imo

 

If we get the Texans at home in the AFC championship, I think it will be an extremely tough game but the bills would win

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I feel like Denver is massively overrated.  They lack special weapons on offense and Bo Nix’ ceiling is Andy Dalton.  They’re very good on defense but not quite in that way Houston is where even Josh is frustrated.

I agree, that's why I rated them lower. That offense has been way too inconsistent. Bo Nix is not in the upper grouping yet and for whatever reason, the defensive style of play just isn't as suffocating as Houston. I think part of that is how Houston plays screens. They're the best team in the NFL at defending the screen. Combine that with that pass rush and it just gives us problems. But with that, they aren't explosive offensively. It should be a very intense close game.  

[scuba guy]

35 minutes ago, ganesh said:

That is why it is maddening that we lost our grip on the #1 seed.  Home field advantage in the playoffs would have been a great recipe to the SB.  
 

Playing Houston or Jacksonville on the road will be lot harder.  

The only thing is if the game is in Jacksonville it will have 70 percent bills fans in attendance.

[BBills]

It’s so Billsy that we can’t win the afc with the chiefs imploding.  

[DeepPass]

No team scares me in the play-offs vs. the Bills - - EXCEPT - -Houston.

[reddogblitz]

I refuse to consider any of this stuff until we make the playoffs which is no guarantee at this point.

 

Go BILLS!!

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I wanted to take a step back from the week to week emotional roller coaster, because honestly, this season has felt ugly at times. We’ve been inconsistent, we’ve had roster holes, the injuries have piled up, and there have been stretches where we looked downright horrendous. But when you zoom out and look at the actual playoff field… it’s kind of stunning. The worst outcome for us is basically a 50/50 matchup, and probably not even against Mahomes. Could we lose to several of these teams? Sure. But the idea that we wouldn’t be right in every single one of these games is pretty silly. All of these matchups are close on paper or lean our way.

 

I ordered them by how dangerous I think they are to us, and it made me feel way better about our prospects. Probably as good as I ever have felt. 

 

Houston

If this matchup happens, it’s going to be tight. They’ve played Allen as well as anyone the last two years. 23–20 loss last year, 23–19 loss this year. Both games were basically a pass protection disaster for us and our offense slogged. It will be a race to 21. A true toss up.

 

Field: Colts, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals

Colts seem cooked, but the other three would all be battles. Nothing new there. Ideally we avoid these teams as long as possible, but none of them are some unstoppable monster. All 50/50 type outcomes.

 

Jacksonville

A tick ahead of Buffalo in DVOA and playing really well. Coen has completely changed their trajectory. They’ve got legit wins: Chiefs, 49ers, Texans, Chargers. Matchup wise, their defense is built to take away the run. Offensively they’ll try to run a ton, even though the efficiency is mediocre. They’ve had our number a bit, but how much does that really matter now? I see this one similar to Houston,  toss up, maybe slight edge to Buffalo.

 

Denver

Last year’s Denver team was actually rated better in DVOA than this year’s version. Last year’s playoff game was 13–7 halfway through the third quarter until the Ty Johnson 4th down play cracked it open. This year’s Denver? Not as good. It’ll be a game, but Buffalo should have the edge.

 

Los Angeles 

DVOA basically has this team as a .500 group. Tons of OL injuries, very up and down, and outside of those early big wins vs KC and DEN, it’s been pretty uneven. They can’t stop the run well, and while they want to run a lot, they’re not efficient. This could be competitive for a bit, but Buffalo should have an edge. 

 

New England

This NE team is the lowest DVOA 11–2 team since 1978. Run defense is slipping. They don’t run the ball particularly well. Maye flashes but he’s still a young QB.

We all saw the first matchup, tons of things went wrong and it still came down to a FG. This is a Wild Card level team which isn't an insult to them. It's good progress.  We should win in Foxborough and I expect we will.

 

Pittsburgh

We just match up too well here. We own Tomlin lately, and they had no schematic answers on either side of the ball. Complete mismatch in the ground game and QB play. This is the most comfortable matchup on the board.

 

Good assessments. 

 

Of course a lot can change between now and then with injury. Let's hope we stay healthy and other teams catch some injury bugs lol

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

That is why it is maddening that we lost our grip on the #1 seed.  Home field advantage in the playoffs would have been a great recipe to the SB.  
 

Playing Houston or Jacksonville on the road will be lot harder.  

That Miami game really screwed us 🤦🏻‍♂️ 

[Sojourner]

34 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That Miami game really screwed us 🤦🏻‍♂️ 

Agreed. 
 

I actually think if we can beat New England, they stumble the following week against the Ravens; who are in the same boat as us, clamoring a comeback to win these last games for a chance at the division. 
 

That would leave it up to Miami. That team seem to be playing for McDaniels. On a 4 game win streak. 

Maybe they can show up like they did against us in the finale????

Edited 7 hours ago by Sojourner

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, BBills said:

It’s so Billsy that we can’t win the afc with the chiefs imploding.  

so true...and with the Ravens and Bengals out of the way....

6 hours ago, Sojourner said:

Agreed. 
 

I actually think if we can beat New England, they stumble the following week against the Ravens; who are in the same boat as us, clamoring a comeback to win these last games for a chance at the division. 
 

That would leave it up to Miami. That team seem to be playing for McDaniels. On a 4 game win streak. 

Maybe they can show up like they did against us in the finale????

Only problem is that the game is in NE....A warm weather team has very low chance to play in the cold in Foxboro

[Instincts]

"As of early December 2025, the New England Patriots' run defense is elite, ranking as high as #1 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (around 79.2 YPG) by Week 11, and generally considered a top-tier unit, sometimes appearing in the top 5 or 10 nationally by various metrics like total defense or points allowed, even if passing defense struggles. 

Key Rankings & Stats (Early December 2025):

Rush Defense Rank (Yards Allowed): Around #1 (e.g., 79.2 YPG by Week 11).

Total Defense Rank: Around #8 (e.g., 306.2 YPG by Week 11).

Points Allowed Rank: Around #6 (e.g., 19.2 PPG by Week 11).

Rush Yards Allowed (Total): Around 1,163 yards, placing them in the Top 10. "

[Process]

I'd really like to avoid the AFCS. Give me Pittsburgh Rd 1 and Denver/NE Rd 2 please.