JBI$111 Posted 9 hours ago Posted 9 hours ago 6 hours ago, mannc said: Missed tackles are a symptom…the cause is smaller, slower, athletically inferior players who get to the ball late and are physically out-manned when they do arrive… And the reason for that cause is horrific drafting over many many years since Beane has been here! That includes picking the wrong people a large majority of the time and too many of them, especially on the defensive side of the ball, missing on people that appeared to be obvious except in Beane's mind (and his talent evaluators) and there to be picked, but were not... and being on the wrong side of almost every trade or contract! 1 Quote
3rdand12 Posted 9 hours ago Posted 9 hours ago 8 hours ago, billsfan714 said: I said it another thread, I was watching Belichick talking last year about us he said our secondary was slow. I think BB knows what he's talking about when he talks defense. I'll add Taylor Rapp ran a 4.77 at his pro day coming out of college---slow. The Schwartz numbers are even more impressive when you think about he wasn't working with a great offense and a lot of leads. A lot of sacks come when a team is trying to come from behind and needs to pass. Wide Nine baby. 😋 McDermott needs to embrace a tweaked philosophy, considering the players they are stuck with. Was calling for it before the draft and asking for honest 1 tech early and perhaps even a Nose tackle from the late rounds Some wrinkles for this season up front on D Bet it would have slowed the run game down Quote
folz Posted 8 hours ago Posted 8 hours ago (edited) 11 hours ago, BeastMaster said: McDermotts defense has always been a complete doormat once they face a legitimate offense and QB in the playoffs This isn't going to change until he changes First you have to define what you mean by a legit offense and legit QB. Do you mean top half of the league? Top 10? Elite/Top 3-5? I would say that in the McDermott era, we have only played one bad offense and 3 to 4 bad QBs in the playoffs (14 games total). Here are the teams we faced and their league-wide PF ranking that year: TEAM POINTS FOR RANK QUATERBACK JAX 5th Bortles HOU 14th Watson* IND 9th Rivers BAL 7th Jackson K.C. 6th Mahomes N.E. 6th Jones K.C. 4th Mahomes MIA 11th Thompson CIN 8th Burrow Pitt 23rd Pickett K.C. 15th Mahomes DEN 10th Nix BAL 2nd Jackson K.C. 15th Mahomes Ok, I think we can automatically rule out Jax, Miami, and Pitt (due to the QBs alone). And let's eliminate Watson* with a 14th ranking and Jones with a 6th ranking (as I assume those QBs would also not meet your criteria). How about Nix, Rivers, and Jackson. Are they considered legit QBs? I would say so, and they all had top 10 scoring offenses. So, that gives us nine games vs. legit offenses and QBs (top 10 that season/legit QB---KC x4, Bal x2, Ind, Den, Cin). In those games, the Bills opponents have averaged 22 points per game. For reference, over the last 5 years, the average points scored by a playoff team is 21.84 points/game. If you take K.C. out of the picture for the moment, that leaves 5 games vs. legit offenses and QBs. The Bills opponents averaged 17.2 points per game in those contests. So, it seems to me that you really mean when the Bills face elite offenses with a generational QB (and weapons: Hill, Kelce, Chase, Higgins) they have been a doormat. But even that doesn't hold true unless you choose not to count Lamar Jackson and Baltimore as legit offenses and QBs. If I don't include Denver and Indy---just KC, Cinn, and Balt (as legit), those teams combined have averaged 27.7 points vs. the Bills in the playoffs. But again, if I take out K.C. and just look at vs. Bal and Cin, those teams averaged 18.3 points vs. the Bills. Oh, and by the way, almost every defense that faces a generational QB with an elite offense will tend to fare worse, and most often, look like a doormat. That's what great offenses do to most teams. It's not like the Bills are alone in struggling against elite offenses. I tend to agree that the current issues are more with personnel than scheme or McD himself. Though I am not opposed to tweaking the scheme or whatever needs to be done with the guys they have and will be getting back. [*Edited: Originally listed Stroud as Houston QB, not Watson. Thanks for catching that ganesh---not sure how I gaffed that so bad.] Edited 1 hour ago by folz 4 Quote
ganesh Posted 6 hours ago Posted 6 hours ago 7 hours ago, folz said: I hear this all the time that we get smoked in the playoffs. So, let me just add a little perspective. In 10 playoff games (in the McD era) vs. teams not named the Chiefs, the Bills defense is giving up an average of 18.3 points in the playoffs. So, not everyone is smoking us, it is really just the Chiefs. Oh and by the way, you do realize that K.C. is a dynasty team with a generational offense correct? In the last 3 games vs. the Chiefs, at the end of regulation, K.C. was up a combined 6 points (over 3 games). So, they have been 2 points better than us in each of our last three playoff matchups (with one OT game, and one last second missed FG). I mean how close can you get to beating one of the best teams the league has seen. Obviously that doesn't speak to how well the defense did or did not play, but we are literally three plays away from being 3-1 vs. the Chiefs in the playoffs [and that doesn't even take into account that the refs heavily influenced two of the 4 playoff games vs. the Chiefs---2020 and 2024; or injuries...we were pretty banged up (worse than the Chiefs) for at least two of those four contests]. And you almost have to separate the Bills vs. the Chiefs from a normal playoff game (on both sides). I mean, do you think that the Chiefs defense sucks and falls apart in the playoffs? In the Mahomes era: Chiefs have allowed the Bills an average of 28.25 points per game in the playoffs (4 games). Chiefs vs. all other playoff teams averaged 22.88 points allowed (17 games). Is that difference because the Chiefs defense sucks in the playoffs (obviously not), or is it because Buffalo is also a special offense that they have a harder time stopping? The Chiefs are giving up 5.37 points more to the Bills than to their average playoff opponent. The Bills score 1 point higher vs. the Chiefs than their playoff average. The Chiefs score 2.5 points more vs. the Bills than their playoff average. And that 1.5 points is about what we are losing to them by (2 points/last 3 playoff games). But, the margin is razor-thin. And, if the Chiefs are holding other teams to 3, 10, 17, 22, 24 points per playoff game, then they can obviously take their foot off the gas on offense. Run long-sustained drives, get into 4-minute offense early, pull your starters, etc. There is no need for the Chiefs to score 36-42 points vs. those teams. Yet, against the Bills, the Chiefs know they are going to need to score at least 30 points and keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes, because Josh is going to keep coming. So, to continually say that the Bills defense has been worse vs. the Chiefs than other teams, or allowed them to score more than their season average, or whatever, really doesn't prove anything to me. They know they have to do that against the Bills or they will get beat. They just don't always need to pour it on against other teams. In the Mahomes era, the Chiefs have averaged 30 points per playoff game (21 playoff games). In the four playoff games vs. the Bills, they have averaged 34.75 (and that includes one OT game---if you only take regulation, then the Bills have allowed the Chiefs 32.5 points/playoff game---only 2.5 points above their average). How much of that is because they have to score more against the Bills, rather than all of those other defenses being superior to the Bills' defense. 12 of KC's 21 playoff games (57%), their opponents scored 24 points or fewer. In 8 of their 21 playoff games (38%), their opponents scored fewer than 21 points. They haven't needed to score more against other teams---doesn't necessarily mean that Buffalo's defense is worse than those other teams. Now, I'm not saying that our defense has been great vs, K.C. in the playoffs, but it's also true that K.C. scores a lot no matter who they play (when they need to). In 21 playoff games, the Chiefs have only scored below 22 points twice (9.5% of the time)---to Tampa Bay in the 2020 SB, and to Baltimore in the 2023 AFC Conf Championship. (You could add vs. Philly in the 2024 SB too, they scored 22 points, but it was in garbage time). So, only 3 teams (in 21 games) have really stopped the Chiefs offense. in 12 of 21 games, the Chiefs have scored between 27 and 51 points (57% of their playoff games). This idea that our defense is so much worse than other teams vs. K.C. doesn't seem to hold up to scrutiny when you look at all of the context surrounding the stats. Also, the idea that we get smoked by everyone in the playoffs is also a fallacy. It really is just the Chiefs, and as I said, there are many reasons for that (beyond them just being a generational/historical offense). As to this year, yeah, the defense does not look great right now. The pass rush has actually improved, but the run defense and tackling has been horrible (and I too am concerned about the secondary). But, we need this defense to be at its peak come playoff time, not in weeks 5 and 6. And there are a few reasons at least to think they can still get better as the year goes on. It is a bit of a wait and see right now...will Hairston, Hoect, Ogunjobi, Milano, etc. make a difference, will the young guys improve, will the new guys start to gel better, etc. But the idea that McD is not a good defensive coach or his scheme sucks seems too simplistic an answer when we have statistically and consistently been one of the best defenses in most categories (points, yards, sacks, turnovers) over the last 8 years. And that they have actually fared well (18.3 points allowed) in the playoffs vs. all teams not named the Chiefs. Everyone's defense is going to do worse against the Chiefs than if playing 90% of the rest of the league. And no other team has had to face the Chiefs more in the playoffs (4 times) than we have (so, again, comparing our playoff stats vs.other teams' playoff stats, etc. is really an apples to oranges comparison). I'm not giving up on this team or this defense yet. Hopefully they have used the BYE week to start getting straight. The Bills have kept the games against the Chiefs close only because of Allen and his heroics. Otherwise, this offense is nothing and will get blown away easily as we saw the last few weeks when Allen himself does not play well. You measure a coach's success against the best of the best and in that department McDermott and his defense has MOSTLY come back small. They have not been able to get over the hump. 1 Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted 5 hours ago Posted 5 hours ago (edited) 11 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said: Yeah, for how much hate he got here (some of it justified) he really was a key component in the middle. It's unfortunate that Chicago gave him such a huge contract and we lost him. There's a rumor that in 2023 the NY State Attorney General's office was investigating the Bills for violating child labor laws... and that's what caused the team to allow Tremaine to leave the state and sign with the Bears. Edited 5 hours ago by Sierra Foothills 1 Quote
BillsFanForever19 Posted 5 hours ago Posted 5 hours ago (edited) 13 hours ago, Big Turk said: You realize the Bills D has allowed the fewest points in the NFL since 2018 when Allen has gotten here right? I mean we can talk about all this, that and the other, but the bottom line is the only thing that matters is how often the other team scores, and the Bills are the best in the NFL over that time in preventing it. The Bills also have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL over that span as well, and BY FAR, the lowest passing yards allowed also. What are we doing? Making up stuff that never happened? That's wonderful! So certainly since 2024, we have to still be #1, right? Or at least still in the Top 5? Because that would be some really concerning metrics that would lend credence to OP's point that the scheme has been figured out if we were #1 since 2018, but since 2024 weren't even in the Top 10... Edited 4 hours ago by BillsFanForever19 Quote
ganesh Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago 5 hours ago, folz said: First you have to define what you mean by a legit offense and legit QB. Do you mean top half of the league? Top 10? Elite/Top 3-5? I would say that in the McDermott era, we have only played one bad offense and 3 to 4 bad QBs in the playoffs (14 games total). Here are the teams we faced and their league-wide PF ranking that year: TEAM POINTS FOR RANK QUATERBACK JAX 5th Bortles HOU 14th Stroud IND 9th Rivers BAL 7th Jackson K.C. 6th Mahomes N.E. 6th Jones K.C. 4th Mahomes MIA 11th Thompson CIN 8th Burrow Pitt 23rd Pickett K.C. 15th Mahomes DEN 10th Nix BAL 2nd Jackson K.C. 15th Mahomes Watson was the QB of the Texans when we played in the WC game. We were leading 17-0 before losing that game...This is the game where Allen caught a TD pass from Brown on a flea flicker. 1 Quote
folz Posted 1 hour ago Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, ganesh said: The Bills have kept the games against the Chiefs close only because of Allen and his heroics. Otherwise, this offense is nothing and will get blown away easily as we saw the last few weeks when Allen himself does not play well. You measure a coach's success against the best of the best and in that department McDermott and his defense has MOSTLY come back small. They have not been able to get over the hump. I agree with your first statement. I do not think that our defense has played well vs. the Chiefs in the playoffs and obviously, Josh and the offense carried us in those games. I was just noting that most defenses appear to get "smoked" by elite offenses. As I noted, the Chiefs offense was basically only stopped 3 times in 21 playoff games (since Mahomes has been starting). Most defenses do poorly against them and we have had to play them 4 times in the post-season (which leads to playoff stats being skewed in comparison to other teams or in comparison to the regular season stats, etc.). Yes, to be the best, you have to beat the best. And if you measure McD's success vs. Andy Reid, sure he does not measure up because he hasn't beaten him when it counted yet (and doesn't have the hardware). But if you are using ONLY the Chiefs games and maybe the Bengals game to measure McD vs. say other coaches or whatever---then you have to look at those coaches only against elite QBs/offenses also. I understand that we have had some very good statistical defenses that have not been able to be dominant or impose their will in the playoffs. Believe me, I would love to see that too. And the defense has fallen off a bit the last couple of years, but I think that is more personnel than scheme or coaching. I guess I just give McD some grace because it is the Chiefs (elite coach, elite QB, elite offense, formerly elite TE and WR, elite DC, darlings of the NFL and referees, the whole Taylor Swift bs, etc.) and because of how close to beating them we have been (and that we have beaten them in the regular season---Sean is 5-5 vs. Reid overall; Interesting note: Reid is 20-5 vs. all of his other former assistants, not named McDermott---yes, I know, McD has Josh---but why do we never say, yeah, Reid has Mahomes?). Anyhow, the average points by a playoff team in a playoff game (over the last 5 years) is 22 points/game. If you take away the Chiefs' games, the Bills defense has held six clubs to at or below league average (3, 7, 10, 17, 17, 22, and 22 points). They have allowed 4 teams to score more than league average (24, 25, 27, and 31). And 2 of those teams had elite (not just legit) QB play and offenses (Baltimore and Cincinnati). Just pushing back against some posters who seem to think that playing the Chiefs 4 times in 7 years doesn't skew our defensive playoff stats, or our previous chances to reach a Super Bowl. Obviously, we still need to be able to beat them (or the like) to get to the promised land...I guess I just still think that McD can do it (with the right pieces)---but I understand that others don't agree with that. 1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said: That's wonderful! So certainly since 2024, we have to still be #1, right? Or at least still in the Top 5? Because that would be some really concerning metrics that would lend credence to OP's point that the scheme has been figured out if we were #1 since 2018, but since 2024 weren't even in the Top 10... The whole idea of offensive and defensive schemes being figured out is overblown imo. All teams run variations on probably less than a handful of schemes. You can outsmart a team in a game or on a play, but the idea that you could come up with a scheme that no one can figure out doesn't seem to make sense to me. So, coaches would need to change schemes every 1-3 seasons (as their schemes get figured out), if that was really a thing. I think it is much more about personnel, player development, team culture, and execution. Do you not think that the defensive rankings going down could have something to do with Tre, Poyer, Hyde, Milano, and even Johnson aging out over that time? Our secondary (and back seven) was a major strength and a key part to our defense from 2018-2023. We have not been able to match that talent level and experience overall the last couple of years. I think that has a lot more to do with it than our scheme being figured out (is McD so smart that it took the NFL 8 years to figure out his scheme, that is probably just a variation of Jim Johnson's old scheme?). The transition in personnel may be taking a bit too long, but hopefully we will start seeing improvements as the year goes on. Quote
GunnerBill Posted 44 minutes ago Posted 44 minutes ago 1 hour ago, folz said: The whole idea of offensive and defensive schemes being figured out is overblown imo. All teams run variations on probably less than a handful of schemes. You can outsmart a team in a game or on a play, but the idea that you could come up with a scheme that no one can figure out doesn't seem to make sense to me. So, coaches would need to change schemes every 1-3 seasons (as their schemes get figured out), if that was really a thing. I think it is much more about personnel, player development, team culture, and execution. Do you not think that the defensive rankings going down could have something to do with Tre, Poyer, Hyde, Milano, and even Johnson aging out over that time? Our secondary (and back seven) was a major strength and a key part to our defense from 2018-2023. We have not been able to match that talent level and experience overall the last couple of years. I think that has a lot more to do with it than our scheme being figured out (is McD so smart that it took the NFL 8 years to figure out his scheme, that is probably just a variation of Jim Johnson's old scheme?). The transition in personnel may be taking a bit too long, but hopefully we will start seeing improvements as the year goes on. This is also my view with one caveat: we have downgraded at defensive coordinator too. I think Leslie Frazier was horribly underrated by most Bills fans. Blamed for things that were not his fault and given no credit because everyone just said "oh it is McDermott's defense." But neither Sean in his one year wearing two hats or Babich since then have called the defense anywhere near as well as Leslie and the changes they have tried to introduce, the schematic twists on the original recipe have by and large made it worse. So we have less talent and worse playcalling. Those two elements are much more to blame than the fundamentals of the scheme IMO. Quote
ScottishBills Posted 17 minutes ago Posted 17 minutes ago (edited) Some really good and fair points by @GunnerBill and @folz - i do love an impassioned defence! But its going to be tough for people to swallow that there arent issues with the fundamentals of the scheme when year after year we watch dbs standing 10 yards off and being picked apart in the games that matter. I totally get that we are (used to be?) elite against Mac Jones and Bo Nix and whichever other rookie or JAG we play in the wildcard round. But the standard now is SB - fair nor not - and to do that you need to beat the big boys - Mahomes, Burrow, Lamar We have beaten the Ravens twice, absolutely true - and first half last year the D really does deserve credit for bringing out play off Lamar, fair! But almost every single other one of those games, including the second half of that Ravens game we just sit off, allowing ourselves to be picked off by guys we know are good enough to pick us off - and quite famously, managed to make the Chiefs look like a 30 point offence for the first time in about 2 years! This is the very definition of a fundamental issue - because its the same damn issue every single year. As an added bonus, it takes wild amounts of time off the clock at key parts of the game - when 17's greatest value is when he gets in a groove and just goes to work with run and pass. To put it another way - what do you rate the odds of the following scenario? The sky is in fact not falling, Bills get back on track and finish something like 12-5, steamroller some punk 7th seed on wildcard weekend - and then lose to Mahomes or Rogers in a divisional or AFCC game where they complete 30+ passes without taking much risk at all, Josh gets us to within 3 points, but we lose because a third rate wide receiver cant make a catch whilst James Cook watches on forlornly from the sideline, and we all complain that it would have been so different if Benford and Milano had just managed to stay out there? We were unlucky because Josh only got 7 possessions? Because i rate the chances somewhere around 90% 😂😂 We just want to see something different - play man, go no huddle, hurry them up, blitz - whatever - just something different than going there with the exact same !@#$ing plan hoping to win by 3 and ending up just short. Because these guys have a long proven track record in the biggest games of all of doing exactly that! The most fair bit of it is lack of talent - Beane has ultimately failed to find elite talent for the most part. Its shocking overall the last few years. That missing talent on both sides of the ball has really handicapped the ceiling available to the coaching staff - that is absolutely fair. And at this point it is clear Sean cant make lemonade. So go get someone who might know the recipe. Edited 14 minutes ago by ScottishBills Quote
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