Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[Einstein]

9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Allen was 1 of 19 on the season/post season of passes more than 20 yards down the middle of the field that season?  Dead last in the NFL.  What's the definition of insanity their Einstein?  I was being generous with 30%.

Well, duh. It would be expected to be low because that stat is counting any pass from 20 to 100(!!!) yards in length lol. OF COURSE the 50, 60, 70, 80 yard heaves are going to drag the percentage down. And because defenses play a lot of Cover 2 against the Bills and Chiefs and all good offenses, the middle of the field is rarely ever open so the data set is slim. All those 50, 60, 70 yard heaves down field when under pressure and are basically throwaways? Those count. But the typical 25-30 yard lasers across the hash? Closer to the 60% mark.

🤦‍♂️
 

But sure, let's pretend that a pass that landed within 5 feet of Shakir would have had very little chance of being caught if Allen wasnt hit lol.

[Billl]

45 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

There was no sliding in the pocket. You can try to make that argument until the cows come home but it won’t ever be the truth.

 

Allen could have completely bailed the pocket and ran right, but then he would have had zero chance at hitting Shakir or Diggs. It would have just been a QB run.

 

But sliding? … no. Any upward movement that wasn’t a complete sprint out of the pocket would have resulted in Jones sacking him. Jones was just waiting for Allen to try that. For goodness sake, that is the entire purpose of a bull-rush. You either disrupt the passer by knocking the linemen into him, or you disengage the lineman (who can’t see behind him) and sack the QB when the QB tries to step up. 

 

I don’t know why you’re trying to pretend like these are viable options. I never pegged you as a troll before and am hoping you aren’t becoming one, but I have a hard time believing if Mahomes had picked the wide open TD and his LT ruined the play that you would be finding any blame in Mahomes.

 

That’s ridiculous on its face. Josh knew the protection.  To his right, he had two blockers protecting the LDE.  To his left, he had Dawkins on an island against Chris Jones.  If there’s going to be any pressure, it’s going to be from his left.  Fortunately for him, he’s got 2 blockers against a non-premier pass rusher to his right, so he knows that he can move to his right in the extremely likely event that Dawkins doesn’t completely stone Chris Jones.

 

It’s not like Dawkins got picked up and thrown into him the way Smoot manhandled Caliendo in the AFFCG.  He got pushed back, but there was plenty of time and room for Josh to use the pocket.  Hell, there was enough time that Diggs had already crossed from one side of the field all the way to the other.  A QB, especially one as mobile as Josh, has to be able to avoid one rusher, particularly when that rusher is engaged with a blocker.  The Defensive Tackles weren’t rushing, and the LDE was absolutely no threat.  There was exactly one spot on the field that would have put Josh in harm’s way, and he nailed his feet to that spot.

 

In the end, there were 2 open receivers and a large, clean pocket.  The rest was up to Josh.  He didn’t take the quick crosser to Diggs, and he didn’t slide out of Dawkins’s way to give himself a clean look at Shakir.  That wasn’t Dion’s fault or Brady’s fault, or anyone else’s fault.  The play was there to be had, and Josh missed it.

[Doc Brown]

13 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Well, duh. It would be expected to be low because that stat is counting any pass from 20 to 100(!!!) yards in length lol. OF COURSE the 50, 60, 70, 80 yard heaves are going to drag the percentage down. And because defenses play a lot of Cover 2 against the Bills and Chiefs and all good offenses, the middle of the field is rarely ever open so the data set is slim. All those 50, 60, 70 yard heaves down field when under pressure and are basically throwaways? Those count. But the typical 25-30 yard lasers across the hash? Closer to the 60% mark.

🤦‍♂️
 

But sure, let's pretend that a pass that landed within 5 feet of Shakir would have had very little chance of being caught if Allen wasnt hit lol.

He was worst in the league.  I'm sorry if this inconvenient stat contradicts your argument.

 

 

 

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He was worst in the league.  I'm sorry if this inconvenient stat contradicts your argument.

 

 

 

 

Wow that perfectly describes what I said. Guess i’ll just post what I already wrote:

 

Well, duh. It would be expected to be low because that stat is counting any pass from 20 to 100(!!!) yards in length lol. OF COURSE the 50, 60, 70, 80 yard heaves are going to drag the percentage down. And because defenses play a lot of Cover 2 against the Bills and Chiefs and all good offenses, the middle of the field is rarely ever open so the data set is slim. All those 50, 60, 70 yard heaves down field when under pressure and are basically throwaways? Those count. But the typical 25-30 yard lasers across the hash? Closer to the 60% mark.

🤦‍♂️
 

But sure, let's pretend that a pass that landed within 5 feet of Shakir would have had very little chance of being caught if Allen wasnt hit lol.

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He was worst in the league.  I'm sorry if this inconvenient stat contradicts your argument.

 

 

 

I wonder if that is a scheme issue, Receivers or what?  It might be something I alluded to in a video someone posted of his throws over 20 yards. He seems to get happy feet and lose his technique on some throws.  As a side note, most successful deep ball throwers have a slightly more "over the top" throwing motion when going deep. He cant do his 3/4 motion and throw flat and be that successful deep.

 

I hope he sees this and works on it this offseason. If he can start hitting the deeper ball more successfully, whew, we will be tough to stop.

[Einstein]

16 minutes ago, Billl said:

That’s ridiculous on its face. Josh knew the protection.  To his right, he had two blockers protecting the LDE.  To his left, he had Dawkins on an island against Chris Jones.  If there’s going to be any pressure, it’s going to be from his left.  Fortunately for him, he’s got 2 blockers against a non-premier pass rusher to his right, so he knows that he can move to his right in the extremely likely event that Dawkins doesn’t completely stone Chris Jones.

 

It’s not like Dawkins got picked up and thrown into him the way Smoot manhandled Caliendo in the AFFCG.  He got pushed back, but there was plenty of time and room for Josh to use the pocket.  Hell, there was enough time that Diggs had already crossed from one side of the field all the way to the other.  A QB, especially one as mobile as Josh, has to be able to avoid one rusher, particularly when that rusher is engaged with a blocker.  The Defensive Tackles weren’t rushing, and the LDE was absolutely no threat.  There was exactly one spot on the field that would have put Josh in harm’s way, and he nailed his feet to that spot.

 

In the end, there were 2 open receivers and a large, clean pocket.  The rest was up to Josh.  He didn’t take the quick crosser to Diggs, and he didn’t slide out of Dawkins’s way to give himself a clean look at Shakir.  That wasn’t Dion’s fault or Brady’s fault, or anyone else’s fault.  The play was there to be had, and Josh missed it.

 

Alright, yep, he has gone into full trolling mode.

[RoscoeParrish]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Wow that perfectly describes what I said. Guess i’ll just post what I already wrote:

 

Well, duh. It would be expected to be low because that stat is counting any pass from 20 to 100(!!!) yards in length lol. OF COURSE the 50, 60, 70, 80 yard heaves are going to drag the percentage down. And because defenses play a lot of Cover 2 against the Bills and Chiefs and all good offenses, the middle of the field is rarely ever open so the data set is slim. All those 50, 60, 70 yard heaves down field when under pressure and are basically throwaways? Those count. But the typical 25-30 yard lasers across the hash? Closer to the 60% mark.

🤦‍♂️
 

But sure, let's pretend that a pass that landed within 5 feet of Shakir would have had very little chance of being caught if Allen wasnt hit lol.

Is Allen the only QB who heaves the ball downfield or throws it away?

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

But the typical 25-30 yard lasers across the hash? Closer to the 60% mark.

🤦‍♂️

Can't wait to see the math you provide back that up.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes this is the same “he should have done something else” argument that has been refuted a thousand times. He did have room to scramble right.

 

But this, as has been said before, is 1000% the wrong move. You take the TD. Every. Single. Time.

 

You don’t take a 7 yard scramble to the right over a TD. The next play could be a fumble, INT, fluke snap, whatever. You take the TD 100 times out of 100.

 

Bending and twisting every facet of this play to excuse Dawkins getting manhandled is a joke. 

 

 

This is absolute nonsense. Had Josh slid up into the pocket, Jones sacks him. Period. End of story. Literally zero question. You *NEVER* slide up into a bull rush. That is QB-ing 101. 

 

Chris Jones would have LOVED for Allen to slide up into that pocket.

 

First off no one’s saying the throw to Shakir was wrong.  Second, you chimed in on a post I made correcting someone else (and eventually you too) that Shakir had something fault, which he did not.  Ball was on the air before Shakir was ever even near a defender.  

Allen getting his foot stepped on is the reason it didn’t work.  And that’s because Dion lost a rep to one of the best DE’s in football.  
 

BUT - Allen had space and room to do something about it too and didn’t.  It’s right there on tape.  So he has some responsibility in the result too even though the bulk of the impact came from Dion losing a rep to another elite player.

Edited 2 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[Billl]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Alright, yep, he has gone into full trolling mode.

So your position is that Allen couldn’t have thrown the quick crosser to a wide open Diggs because he needed to throw it deep to Shakir, but he couldn’t throw it deep to Shakir because he didn’t have the protection.  Basically all the team needs to do is get a guy open short and a guy open deep and give Allen 5 seconds to throw, and the play will be successful.  Buffalo should figure out how to do that and then just spam that play over and over.

[Einstein]

17 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Is Allen the only QB who heaves the ball downfield or throws it away?

No. Which is why you see the same exact thing in other great offenses. Read below...

 

20 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I wonder if that is a scheme issue, Receivers or what? 

Nothing to do with personnel - its how defenses are playing us and other good offenses. 

After the 2020 season, defenses across the league began playing more and more Cover 2 against great offenses like the Bills and Chiefs. The goal was to take away the deep passes and intermediate crossers (Daboll loved these). The goal was to force offenses to go on methodical drives.

Because Cover 2 takes away the deep pass (especially the middle intermediate where the 2 safeties have converging zones), great offenses barely ever throw there anymore. This means that most of the intermediate/deep middle throws are throwaways and improbable heaves. 

But if you dont know the context behind the stats, its easy to be confused. For example, Doc Brown (because he doesn't know any better) thought this was an Allen issue. It's not. Its just how teams are playing great offenses.

Example: Here is Mahomes throwing to the middle of the field. 11.3 rating.



And here is Hurts with a 8.3 rating.



And here is Goff



And here is Allen



So... yeah.

The deep middle argument is nonsense. But if you don't know the context of the stats you're seeing, you may think its something wrong with Josh.

it's not.

Edited 2 hours ago by Einstein

[Doc Brown]

7 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I wonder if that is a scheme issue, Receivers or what?  It might be something I alluded to in a video someone posted of his throws over 20 yards. He seems to get happy feet and lose his technique on some throws.  As a side note, most successful deep ball throwers have a slightly more "over the top" throwing motion when going deep. He cant do his 3/4 motion and throw flat and be that successful deep.

 

I hope he sees this and works on it this offseason. If he can start hitting the deeper ball more successfully, whew, we will be tough to stop.

I don't have a good answer for you as I'll let the smarter people who knows proper mechanics explain it but I know that year he was dealing with that elbow injury.

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

So your position is that Allen couldn’t have thrown the quick crosser to a wide open Diggs because he needed to throw it deep to Shakir, but he couldn’t throw it deep to Shakir because he didn’t have the protection.  Basically all the team needs to do is get a guy open short and a guy open deep and give Allen 5 seconds to throw, and the play will be successful.  Buffalo should figure out how to do that and then just spam that play over and over.

I refuse to entertain your trolling. You know what I and others are saying and you are purposefully attempting to twist it. You read what Simon said. You also read what I have said (unless your responding without actually reading which is worse). Yet instead of responding to what we write, you simply regurgitate the same point without any additional nuance or clarification. I don't know why you are acting like this, because in general you haven't done this. But today, you are trolling for some reason. Its bad enough when our own fans do it, but downright miserable when a Chiefs fan does it. Its not interesting and I can only assume that if you keep it up, sooner or later, you will be tossed. 
 

[RoscoeParrish]

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

No. Which is why you see the same exact thing in other great offenses. Read below...

 

Nothing to do with personnel - its how defenses are playing us and other good offenses. 

After the 2020 season, defenses across the league began playing more and more Cover 2 against great offenses like the Bills and Chiefs. The goal was to take away the deep plan and intermediate middle field (Daboll loved this) and force offenses to go on methodical drives.

Because Cover 2 takes away the deep pass (and especially the middle intermediate where the 2 safeties have converging zones), great offenses barely ever throw there anymore. This means that most of the intermediate/deep middle throws are throwaways and improbable heaves. 

For example, Doc Brown (because he doesnt know any better) thought this was an Allen issue. It's not. Its just how teams are playing great offenses. Here is Mahomes in the middle of the field, for example. 11.3 rating.



And here is Hurts with a 8.3 rating.



And here is Goff



And here is Allen



So... yeah.

The deep middle argument is nonsense. But if you don't know the context of the stats you're seeing, you may think its something wrong with Josh.

it's not.

So basically what you are saying is because of the way defenses play us, throwing a 40 yard ball to a slot WR is a low percentage play?

[Einstein]

41 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

So basically what you are saying is because of the way defenses play us, throwing a 40 yard ball to a slot WR is a low percentage play?

Nice try

As a general rule, yes, throwing deep middle seams against Cover 2 is tough. But that is because the defense is designed to stop it.

However, if the defense messes up, YOU TAKE IT.

Just like, as a general rule, running against a stacked box is difficult. But what if 2 defenders fall down? Should the running back NOT take that hole and go for it? Of of course they should. 

The Chiefs lost Shakir. It was a touchdown had Allen not been hit.

Edited 1 hour ago by Einstein

[RoscoeParrish]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Nice try. But twisting words wont work here.

As a general rule, yes, throwing deep middle seams against Cover 2 is tough. But that is because the defense is designed to stop it.

However, if the defense messes up, YOU TAKE IT.

Just like, as a general rule, running against a stacked box is difficult. But what if 2 defenders fall down? Should the running back NOT take that hole and go for it? Of of course they should. 

The Chiefs lost Shakir. It was a touchdown had Allen not been hit.

It’s not really trying to twist your words. 
 

Isn’t the point of Cover 2 making those throws low probability? By having an extra deep defender, who maybe makes the offense hold the ball a second or two late on a throw, in time for the pass rush to get home?

 

Isn’t the best way to strategically beat Cover 2 to be methodical and take open checkdowns aka what the defense gives you?

 

I feel like you really argued against yourself here, strategically and statistically. Offense was a second a

late, pass rush got home, incomplete. 

[Einstein]

Just now, RoscoeParrish said:

Isn’t the best way to strategically beat Cover 2 to be methodical and take open checkdowns aka what the defense gives you?

 

Yes. That is correct. 

And that is what you should do IF there is not a WR wide open in the endzone. 

Had Shakir not been open, I would agree with you  - hit Diggs. Or scramble. 

But Shakir WAS open. And you take the TD when you have a WR open.

Just because a certain scheme is meant to take something away, doesnt mean it works every play.
 

Just now, RoscoeParrish said:

I feel like you really argued against yourself here

One would only feel that way if they don't understand what I am writing.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

It’s not really trying to twist your words. 
 

Isn’t the point of Cover 2 making those throws low probability? By having an extra deep defender, who maybe makes the offense hold the ball a second or two late on a throw, in time for the pass rush to get home?

 

Isn’t the best way to strategically beat Cover 2 to be methodical and take open checkdowns aka what the defense gives you?

 

I feel like you really argued against yourself here, strategically and statistically. Offense was a second a

late, pass rush got home, incomplete. 

Morse, the Center, is #60.  This ball was snapped on the right hash of the 26 yard line.  Josh takes a full 5 step drop and then 3 false steps and actually drifts left into the pass rush before being hit as he threw.  That’s Diggs running wide open right in front of Allen.  

 

We’re to conclude that Josh didn’t have a pocket and Dion Dawkins is 100% at fault for this play resulting in an incompletion.  Who are you going to believe, Einstein or your lying eyes?

[dayman]

35 minutes ago, Billl said:

Morse, the Center, is #60.  This ball was snapped on the right hash of the 26 yard line.  Josh takes a full 5 step drop and then 3 false steps and actually drifts left into the pass rush before being hit as he threw.  That’s Diggs running wide open right in front of Allen.  

 

We’re to conclude that Josh didn’t have a pocket and Dion Dawkins is 100% at fault for this play resulting in an incompletion.  Who are you going to believe, Einstein or your lying eyes?

….

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I don't have a good answer for you as I'll let the smarter people who knows proper mechanics explain it but I know that year he was dealing with that elbow injury.

Another elbow injury?  I knew of the hand,but not elbow again.  Is it time he just gets it fixed before it fully tears on him?