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Oof - the penalty for being good, but not good enough


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2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Also of note - in the year prior to this time range, 2013, De’andre Hopkins went at 27.

 

The 1st round has a bust rate of roughly 50%.  Most hits are in the top 10.  Which means it starts declining from there.

I would think with this WR data, the other positional groupings probably aren't much better in the mid to late first round.

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2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

The 1st round has a bust rate of roughly 50%.  Most hits are in the top 10.  Which means it starts declining from there.

I would think with this WR data, the other positional groupings probably aren't much better in the mid to late first round.

Tompsett had a correlating tweet showing success rates by position. WR was at the bottom.

 

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1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Among all WR in the given time frame. I know he had maybe 3-4 seasons around 1100 yards.

 

Well, since 2014, the year he was drafted....he is 10th in receptions. 10th in yards.  12th in TD's. 

 

He's had 6 - 1000 yard seasons.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receptions-since-2014-by-a-player

 

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The closer we get to the draft the more I want us to move up to 8 and grab Odunze. I don’t expect him to slip past Chicago. I know this mortgages our future, but Odunze has character, intelligence, and elite skills. He’d be perfect for Allen. If we can’t make that happen, I’d be okay to move out of the first round altogether and take 2 WR’s to buck the odds. 

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6 minutes ago, Maynard said:

The closer we get to the draft the more I want us to move up to 8 and grab Odunze. I don’t expect him to slip past Chicago. I know this mortgages our future, but Odunze has character, intelligence, and elite skills. He’d be perfect for Allen. If we can’t make that happen, I’d be okay to move out of the first round altogether and take 2 WR’s to buck the odds. 

Plus you get him for 4 years at a super cheap salary vs paying someone 25-30m per in free agency

Edited by KDIGGZ
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7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Well, since 2014, the year he was drafted....he is 10th in receptions. 10th in yards.  12th in TD's. 

 

He's had 6 - 1000 yard seasons.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receptions-since-2014-by-a-player

 

 

I'll allow it then.

 

But here's the thing even if you add him to the list of successes, the hit rate is pretty low.

 

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6 minutes ago, Maynard said:

The closer we get to the draft the more I want us to move up to 8 and grab Odunze. I don’t expect him to slip past Chicago. I know this mortgages our future, but Odunze has character, intelligence, and elite skills. He’d be perfect for Allen. If we can’t make that happen, I’d be okay to move out of the first round altogether and take 2 WR’s to buck the odds. 

 

I love Odunze.  If we can't land him, I kinda hope we double up on McConkey and Worthy.  Adding them gives us 3 WR's who run 4.3 and below - 40's.  

McConkey can play the outside and Worthy was predominantly outside.

 

This speed stretches the defenses.  If Allen had the Dolphins speed and with Kincaid in the middle....erection.

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24 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

good being the operative word there

 

only one really GREAT one, and a couple pretty good.

 

 

There are two first team all pros - Lamb and Jefferson. But Aiyuk has been a second team all pro as has Calvin Ridley. Then you have Cooks and Moore who have been #1s at points of their careers - although probably lower end #1s. That is 6 good players. All of those at their best would be by far and away the best receiver on the Bills in 2024. 

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2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I love Odunze.  If we can't land him, I kinda hope we double up on McConkey and Worthy.  Adding them gives us 3 WR's who run 4.3 and below - 40's.  

McConkey can play the outside and Worthy was predominantly outside.

 

This speed stretches the defenses.  If Allen had the Dolphins speed and with Kincaid in the middle....erection.

 

I like that. Think that could happen after a trade-down?

 

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49 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

nah, man if he trades up, all we'll have left is 4th and later picks which, bleh.

 

I'd rather he trade our first for an Aiyuk or Jefferson than do THAT.

 

We DON'T have the $$$ for that. Aiyuk wants to get paid, likely in the $25M-$30M range, and Jefferson has already turned down a $30M per year offer. This team doesn't really have that many holes. CB depth, S depth, another LB, 3-Tech DT depth. A trade up for a TRUE alpha WR, one of the big 3, is not going to hurt us at all. 

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Just now, H2o said:

We DON'T have the $$$ for that. Aiyuk wants to get paid, likely in the $25M-$30M range, and Jefferson has already turned down a $30M per year offer. This team doesn't really have that many holes. CB depth, S depth, another LB, 3-Tech DT depth. A trade up for a TRUE alpha WR, one of the big 3, is not going to hurt us at all. 

trade down or stay put/bpa it is then

 

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