Aussie Joe Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Just now, GASabresIUFan said: Shakir was a 5th rd pick. Davis a 4th. Puca Nacua was a 5th rd pick last year. So yes, why not? We paid nearly $5 mill to the vet no. 5 WR last season and got 15 catches for 150 yards for our efforts. Sherfield played 34% and only got us 22 catches for 86 yards. I'd say he didn't earn his 1.7 million. My guess is Shorter gets us 3 times that number for 1/2 the money. FA WRs are also a 50/50 proposition at best. Last year ODJ was paid $15 million for caught 35 balls for 565 yards. Lazard was give a 4 year deal for $44 million and caught 23 for 311. JuJu was paid 8.6 for 29 catches & 260 yards. Out of the top 10 FAs that changed teams only 4 gave their teams any value. Thielen ($8.3) 103 for 1014 was the best, Slayton ($6) 50 for 770. Meyers ($11) 71 for 807 and Hopkins ($13) 75 for 1057. Harty was the 10th highest paid FA WR last season. The No 11 guy was Parris Campbell ($4.7) 20 catches 104 yards. A few weeks ago I researched how WRs drafted 20 -40 do their first year and they averaged about 700 yards as rookies. Give me the rookie to replace Davis, and I'm just fine with Shorter replacing Sherfield and another later pick or Hamler/Isabella replacing Harty. If you want to take a flyer on a cheap vet, I'd give Mecole Hardman a shot. Last I looked he has a couple of Super Bowl rings and caught the game winning catch this year. Shakir did not come in Year 1 Week 1 and make significant contributions…he had 10 receptions and 160 yards for the whole rookie season in fact… A rookie playing like Nacua is unlikely to happen with the Bills 5th round pick this year … if we thought that was the case then we wouldn’t be wasting a 1st round pick at the position would we ? You are referencing Harty & Sheffield .. we know they were terrible … … we are trying to get better right? Shorter is just a total guess as to how he will go..might be good … might be crap… With how conservative this staff are here I’m just not seeing a room of Diggs, Shakir, Shorter and two rookies … They showed today that they don’t even trust getting a rookie to play LB 4… We also need to consider that the 1st round rookie may take a little time to get up to Davis levels of playing time ,,, he wasn’t a great receiver but he was very professional in his conditioning and work ethic… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I know free agency isn’t done yet but looking at the overall roster it’s clear that Beane needs to find something like four to six STARTERS in the draft. Not just players, but actual starters. Offense: WR, OLine and you might even count RB since Cook isn’t an every down back Defense: Safety for sure, DLine if they want to keep rotating starters, and CB if you count dime formations 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 So the Bills resigned Jones, AJE, and Lewis. Of the remaining Bills FA,the ones I'd still like the team to resign are Neal, Jackson, and Johnson. I'd add a maybe to Lawson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 (edited) On 3/13/2024 at 1:27 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said: So the Bills resigned Jones, AJE, and Lewis. Of the remaining Bills FA,the ones I'd still like the team to resign are Neal, Jackson, and Johnson. I'd add a maybe to Lawson. They re-signed Johnson today and Jackson has signed elsewhere. I think the Lewis and Hollins signings make it very unlikely Neal returns, but you never know. I didn't think Beane would find a way to get Jones & Epenesa back, but he did. Updated Roster: Offense 19 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 4: Diggs, Shakir, Hollins & Shorter (Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 7: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 18 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 6 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, & Epenesa (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 4 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, & Elam S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Hamlin, & Lewis (CB) Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Looks like there are 11 jobs still available - 1 RB, 1 (maybe 2) WR, 2 OL, 4 DL, 2 CB & 1 S. My guess is 6-7 of these jobs will go to draft picks (WR, S, CB, OL, RB, 2DL?). I'm happy about Ty Johnson coming back. It looks like we are down to only 2 starting jobs available - WR2 and S. Safety looks like the worst group position on the team with Rapp as a starter and Lewis and Hamlin as the depth. Also need 2-4 players on the DL. Edited March 14 by GASabresIUFan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said: They re-signed Johnson today and Jackson has signed elsewhere. I think the Lewis and Hollins signings make it very unlikely Neal returns, but you never know. I didn't think Beane would find a way to get Jones & Epenesa back, but he did. Updated Roster: Offense 17 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 4: Diggs, Shakir, Hollins & Shorter (Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 7: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 18 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 6 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, & Epenesa (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 4 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, & Elam S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Hamlin, & Lewis (CB) Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Looks like there are 11 jobs still available - 1 RB, 1 (maybe 2) WR, 2 OL, 4 DL, 2 CB & 1 S. My guess is 6-7 of these jobs will go to draft picks (WR, S, CB, OL, RB, 2DL?). I'm happy about Ty Johnson coming back. It looks like we are down to only 2 starting jobs available - WR2 and S. Safety looks like the worst group position on the team with Rapp as a starter and Lewis and Hamlin as the depth. I had wrote my post early Wednesday, since then Neal & Jackson both signed think was in Miami and Carolina respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 (edited) Updated Roster using a 51 man roster: Starters in Bold Offense 20 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 4: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, & Hollins (Shorter, Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 8: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 21 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 8 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Epenesa, A. Johnson & Toohill (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 5 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam & Lewis (S) S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Edwards, & Hamlin Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Looks like there are 7 jobs still available - 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 OL, 2 DL, 1 CB & 1 S. Beane keeps adding more 1 year depth (Edwards, Clapp, Toohill, Morrow, Ty Johnson, A Johnson and Hollins to name 7). He still has about $5-6 million in current cap, plus White's 10 mill in June to work with. He also is interviewing D Lineman and I expect at least one more signing there. (Signed Austin Johnson on 3/23). My guess is down to 4-6 of these jobs going to draft picks (WR, S, CB, RB, 1DL?). It looks like we are down to only 1 maybe 2 starting jobs available - WR2 and maybe S. Even with the signing of Edwards, Safety looks like the worst group position on the team with Rapp & Edwards as possible starters and Lewis and Hamlin as the depth. Also need 2 players on the DL, including at least 1 DTs. Updated 3/24 to reflect A. Johnson signing Edited March 24 by GASabresIUFan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 I will predict 2 further OL in the mid rounds of the draft likely relegating Clapp to the PS … Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Thanks as always for the excellent overview. As I look at the roster the one player/position that stands out is TE. Can the Bills really afford to pay Knox big money to be a back up tight end? I would think they could find a trade partner for his services…either for a decent draft pick or a starter at one of their couple remaining positions of need. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 (edited) Roster spots are going to be hard to come by for rookies and players on futures deals. With the addition of A. Johnson (1yr 3.5 million) on the DL, 44 jobs are now taken my vets. Did we really need the Clapp when signing so many Johnsons? Edited March 24 by GASabresIUFan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFan Posted March 28 Author Share Posted March 28 (edited) As I reviewed the new player contracts, I noticed Toohill received only a 15K signing bonus. His dead cap if released is only 15K. When I compared that to other lower end veteran contracts (Like Ty Johnson and Morrow), their dead cap was about 50% of their cap hit. I took this to mean that management believes that Toohill might be beaten out for one of the backup DL roles, maybe by one of the draft picks. Edit: DT depth added. Bills sign DT DeShawn Williams. Another former Panther. Updated Roster using a 51 man roster: Starters in Bold Offense 21 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 5: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins & Shorter (Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 8: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 22 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 9 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Epenesa, D. Williams, A. Johnson & Toohill (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 5 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam & Lewis (S) S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Edwards, & Hamlin Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Notes on Williams, A Johnson and Clapp. Williams earned 1.75 with the Panthers last year. He was undrafted out of Clemson in 2015. Clapp made 1.159 with the Chargers last year. Johnson was also with Chargers last year and made 6.75. His new Bills contract is for 1 year at 3.5. Edited March 28 by GASabresIUFan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 I’m uncomfortable with edge and safety. Interior OL I’m ok with, but there’s questions. Depth wise I think we need a veteran depth CB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 18 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said: As I reviewed the new player contracts, I noticed Toohill received only a 15K signing bonus. His dead cap if released is only 15K. When I compared that to other lower end veteran contracts (Like Ty Johnson and Morrow), their dead cap was about 50% of their cap hit. I took this to mean that management believes that Toohill might be beaten out for one of the backup DL roles, maybe by one of the draft picks. Edit: DT depth added. Bills sign DT DeShawn Williams. Another former Panther. Updated Roster using a 51 man roster: Starters in Bold Offense 21 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 5: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins & Shorter (Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 8: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 22 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 9 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Epenesa, D. Williams, A. Johnson & Toohill (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 5 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam & Lewis (S) S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Edwards, & Hamlin Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Notes on Williams, A Johnson and Clapp. Williams earned 1.75 with the Panthers last year. He was undrafted out of Clemson in 2015. Clapp made 1.159 with the Chargers last year. Johnson was also with Chargers last year and made 6.75. His new Bills contract is for 1 year at 3.5. after this signing, I believe our biggest needs are WR1, RB 2, Edge, CB. DT and S are second priority Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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