Is it time to put out an Amber Alert on Dalton Kincaid?

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

He’s been hurt, Knox is back and we’ve ran the ball more.

 

 

Yup, shoulder problems. I'm not worried in the least, myself.

 

Week 7 43 snaps

Week 8 58 snaps

Week 9 52 snaps

Week 10 41 snaps

Week 11 51 snaps

Week 12 58 snaps

bye

Week 14 60 snaps 

Week 15 33 snaps

Week 16 2 snaps

 

This ain't mysterious. He's injured, he's getting fewer snaps.

 

He'll be fine.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

They are a prime example of players at the same position having better seasons as rookies AND better careers taken after the Bills pick. 

 

I think you can understand the parallel I’m drawing there. 

 

 

Yes, we do.

 

It's called cherry picking. And shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

More, it's dumb cherry picking, comparing guys taken at #4, #7 and #12 and with complete ingenuousness wondering who can imagine why they might be better early in their careers than a guy picked at #25 who plays a position where guys genuinely start slower in their first years than do WRs recently.

 

Just pathetic.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Heitz]

9 minutes ago, Augie said:

OK, who is with me hoping Kincaid has 14 catches for 180 yards and 3 TD’s today???  😋

I approve of this message 👍👍

 

HNY Auggie 🙌  

[FireChans]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, we do.

 

It's called cherry picking. And shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

More, it's dumb cherry picking, comparing guys taken at 4, #7 and #12 and with complete ingenuousness wondering who can imagine why they might be better early in their careers than a guy picked at #25 who plays a position where guys genuinely start slower in their first years than do WRs recently.

 

Just pathetic.

I’m comparing WR’s to WR’s. 
 

I think you missed the point a bit here.

[jethro_tull]

44 minutes ago, Mr Wild said:

 

Did you know Kincaid has the 6th most catches all time for a rookie TE?

 

Did you know that Kincaid has 1-2 games less then everyone on that list ahead of him?

 

Did you know that non of those teams had a 2nd TE taking receptions as well?

 

Did you know Laporta which is the only reason for this post has had 40 more targets (81 rec 113 targets)? while Kincaid has 62 rec on 76 targets

Love Dalton and he is going to be a star but my pick was LaPorta going into the draft.  He plays much more physically which DK needs to become.  

Edited December 31, 2023 by jethro_tull

[Thurman#1]

Just now, FireChans said:

I’m comparing WR’s to WR’s. 
 

I think you missed the point a bit here.

 

 

I see. So somebody (you?) tried to hijack a Kincaid thread, and here I was assuming that in that Kincaid thread you might be talking about Kincaid? My bad. Should've figured you might have been completely off the point into the weeds.

 

So I may well have missed the point, since I only looked at your post and not the ones you were replying to.

 

Still, you were absolutely cherry picking as I suggested. Not to mention completely off the point talking about a different position and a different Bills regime.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I see. So somebody (you?) tried to hijack a Kincaid thread, and here I was assuming that in that Kincaid thread you might be talking about Kincaid? My bad. Should've figured you might have been completely off the point into the weeds.

 

So I may well have missed the point, since I only looked at your post and not the ones you were replying to.

 

Still, you were absolutely cherry picking as I suggested. Not to mention completely off the point talking about a different position and a different Bills regime.

Hijack? It was an example of the Bills drafting a player who had a “good” rookie season all things considered, but his peers who played the same position and were drafted later than them had “great” rookie seasons and greater careers.

 

I’m not sure how that’s cherry picking unless you’re willfully missing the point.

 

You seem kinda overly hostile to have any kind of meaningful discussion here anyway. Adios.

[Heitz]

55 minutes ago, Mr Wild said:

 

Did you know Kincaid has the 6th most catches all time for a rookie TE?

 

Did you know that Kincaid has 1-2 games less then everyone on that list ahead of him?

 

Did you know that non of those teams had a 2nd TE taking receptions as well?

 

Did you know Laporta which is the only reason for this post has had 40 more targets (81 rec 113 targets)? while Kincaid has 62 rec on 76 targets

 

Imagine if dude were *good* 🤔

 

🤣  

[Thurman#1]

46 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Hijack? It was an example of the Bills drafting a player who had a “good” rookie season all things considered, but his peers who played the same position and were drafted later than them had “great” rookie seasons and greater careers.

 

I’m not sure how that’s cherry picking unless you’re willfully missing the point.

 

You seem kinda overly hostile to have any kind of meaningful discussion here anyway. Adios.

 

 

You are absolutely cracking me up here.

 

That's precisely the definition of cherry picking. You search till you find the examples that fit your narrative and you ignore all other examples. 

 

Specifically squarely and strictly cherry-picking, not to mention that the Watkins pick was nearly a decade ago and has absolutely nothing to do with this regime. Kinda sad, and an on the nose case of cherry-picking.

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Thurman#1

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You are absolutely cracking me up here.

 

That's precisely the definition of cherry picking. You search till you find the examples that fit your narrative and you ignore all other examples. 

 

Specifically squarely and strictly cherry-picking, not to mention that the Watkins pick was nearly a decade ago and has absolutely nothing to do with this regime. Kinda sad, and an on the nose case of cherry-picking.

 

And I totally understand why you'd wanna say Adios here. I'd do it to if the discussion was going for me the way it's going for you.

I mean there’s loads of examples throughout the league of players drafted higher than other players at their positions and being outperformed.

 

I can probably give you five off the top of my head.

 

Josh Allen would be one, compared to Baker and Darnold. 
 

Is that cherry picking to say that happens around the league? I’m not sure you even understand what’s being discussed, let alone what is being cherry-picked to support it.

 

Go ahead and try to tell me what my point is. I bet you can’t lmao.

[Mrbojanglezs]

Dorsey wanted 12 personnel 

[Thurman#1]

41 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I mean there’s loads of examples throughout the league of players drafted higher than other players at their positions and being outperformed.

 

I can probably give you five off the top of my head.

 

Josh Allen would be one, compared to Baker and Darnold. 
 

Is that cherry picking to say that happens around the league? I’m not sure you even understand what’s being discussed, let alone what is being cherry-picked to support it.

 

Go ahead and try to tell me what my point is. I bet you can’t lmao.

 

 

There are indeed loads of examples throughout the league of players drafted higher than other players at their positions and being outperformed.

 

There are also loads of examples throughout the league of players drafted higher than other players at their positions and outperforming them.

 

Strangely, you didn't mention any of those cases, the ones that didn't fit your narrative.

 

Which is what cherry-picking is.

 

And again, you had to go back nine years to find your example there.

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Thurman#1

[FireChans]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

There are indeed loads of examples throughout the league of players drafted higher than other players at their positions and being outperformed.

 

There are also loads of examples throughout the league of players drafted higher than other players at their positions and outperforming them.

 

Strangely, you didn't mention any of the cases that didn't fit your narrative.

 

Which is what cherry-picking is.

 

And again, you had to go back nine years to find your example there.

 

What was my point?

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What was my point?

 

 

Sorry, it was a very stupid point about Super Bowl windows. 

[muppy]

well Daltons number has been called twice so far and both times passes uncatchable

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sorry, it was a very stupid point about Super Bowl windows. 

What was my point

[Thurman#1]

He's right. FAs can be much better targeted for present needs.

 

Drafts are more for the future, particularly as good teams draft later and thus tend to get guys who are not as football ready.

 

Just now, FireChans said:

What was my point

 

 

Oh, sorry. Even you're confused, hunh? I'll give you some time to go back and see if you can find something salvageable there.

[FireChans]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

He's right. FAs can be much better targeted for present needs.

 

Drafts are more for the future, particularly as good teams draft later and thus tend to get guys who are not as football ready.

 

 

 

Oh, sorry. Even you're confused, hunh? I'll give you some time to go back and see if you can find something salvageable there.

My point, because you’re clearly confused and aggressive, was that I don’t WANT Kincaid to be the outperformed player, lol.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

My point, because you’re clearly confused and aggressive, was that I don’t WANT Kincaid to be the outperformed player, lol.

 

 

 

Oh. Well, you might want to make your point clearer then.

 

None of us actively want that. Not that it matters much. What matters is whether Kincaid is good, not how he compares to a guy with a somewhat different skill set on a different roster with a different scheme.

 

Kincaid shows every sign of being very very good in our scheme with our guys.

 

LaPorta's good too. Which is pretty much irrelevant to me and I think most Bills fans. Though so far I like watching him play as well.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Thurman#1

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

Just once, I would like our player to be having a crazy awesome season, not be the “also ran” to another players’ crazy awesome season 

 

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Oh. Well, you might want to make your point clearer then.

 

None of us actively want that. Not that it matters much. What matters is whether Kincaid is good, not how he compares to a guy with a somewhat different skill set on a different roster with a different scheme.

 

Kincaid shows every sign of being very very good in our scheme with our guys.

 

LaPorta's good too. Which is pretty much irrelevant to me and I think most Bills fans. Though so far I like watching him play as well.

I made it obvious. 
 

If you had a question about my point, you could’ve asked about it, instead of being hyper-aggressive for no reason at all.

[Thurman#1]

29 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

I made it obvious. 
 

If you had a question about my point, you could’ve asked about it, instead of being hyper-aggressive for no reason at all.

 

 

Sorry, but saying that in one sentence and then going on to spray all over the place with Sammy Watkins references and all sorts of other things really does not make it clear that that was your point. Only that that was one of many things you were saying.

 

And again, when you go off in many directions, people are going to reply to all of what you said, not just one sentence of it.

 

If that is the only thing you meant, fine. I find it irrelevant. I only care deeply about whether the guy we picked does well in our system. How LaPorta does is of minor interest to me and has nothing to do with how good a pick Kincaid is, to me. None. If you care, I guess that's your business. I don't. Nor do I find the horrendous Watkins pick (more specifically the awful at first glance trade-up to get the Watkins pick) at all relevant to Kincaid.

 

I guess even mentioning that Watkins disaster pushes my buttons. If I over-reacted, I'm sorry. Did you have to bring that up?

 

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/248654-super-excited-for-this-draft-class/?do=findComment&comment=8491009

 

I link the above post because we are talking about production from Kincaid and my realistic projection for him as a rookie is in that post. I said in summary:

 

"Realistic career arc projection...

 

2023 - (Rookie) circa 55% of the O snaps; 45 receptions; 500 yards and 4 TDs

 

2024 - circa 65% of the O snaps; 65 receptions; 750 yards and 5 TDs

 

2025 - 75-80% of the O snaps; 80 receptions; 900 yards 6 TDs

 

And then hopefully he will hover in that 850-1,100 yards range for the following 4 or 5 seasons health permitting. Ertz had 5 years in that sort of territory (lower end of it but with much worse QB play) before the injuries and decline got him."

 

So particularly to the bolded let's look at where he is with a game left...

 

64% of the O snaps; 66 receptions (Bills Rookie Record); 589 yards and 2 TDs. 

 

What do we conclude from that.... his overall production is broadly in line with my expectations. While I know it is easy to look at LaPorta's numbers with envy (860 yards and 9 TDs) it is worth saying that Kincaid is comfortably the second most productive rookie tight end (248 yards ahead of 3rd). To put it in further historical context even if Kincaid were shut out next week his current numbers put him 14th all time on the rookie tight end yardage list. It is a position that takes time. 

 

But also I think we conclude his usage has been a little different than some of us expected. The high snap count is no doubt influenced by Dawson Knox spending time on IR but also they have definitely used him more in the short yardage stuff and less on the seam routes than I expected so it is high volume, lower payoff but then maybe we should have been expecting a bit more of that, after all, Beane told us in the post draft presser that he saw him really as the Cole Beasley replacement. They also haven't got him involved in the redzone as much as I'd have liked. I have a bit of a theory there that he isn't a great short redzone option, because he isn't as physical as say Dawson Knox, who before this season had top 3 redzone production at the position the past two seasons, but I think they are missing chances in the high redzone between the 20 and the 10 to get him going underneath and see if he can make a guy miss. 

 

So overall, one game to go, It has been a good rookie season. He is clearly a guy with lots of potential. I'd want to see the kind of jump I was forecasting above in 2024 health permitting.