Tommy Callahan Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Any take on the huge divergence between the CES and CPS as it keeps growing every month. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm?ref=dismal-jellyfish.com The CES is commonly referred to as the ‘payroll survey’ and the CPS as the ‘household survey’. CES collects survey data from a sample of employers then adjusts the data to reflect insights from ES-202 data. CPS only surveys households, inquiring about the employment status of residents. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/03/the-employment-situation-release-and-business-cycle-indicators-for-february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 12 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: Any take on the huge divergence between the CES and CPS as it keeps growing every month. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm?ref=dismal-jellyfish.com The CES is commonly referred to as the ‘payroll survey’ and the CPS as the ‘household survey’. CES collects survey data from a sample of employers then adjusts the data to reflect insights from ES-202 data. CPS only surveys households, inquiring about the employment status of residents. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/03/the-employment-situation-release-and-business-cycle-indicators-for-february The first link you provide gives a full explanation of how the data are collected and why they may diverge. Read it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 BIDENOMICS IN ONE LESSON: Job Creators Network Reacts to March Jobs Report. “Looking under the hood of today’s jobs report shows it isn’t the home run that Democrats and the media claim. Approximately, half of all jobs created last month came in unproductive government or quasi-government healthcare sectors. Full-time jobs continue to decline, while part-time jobs are on the rise. And average wages are growing slower than inflation again, meaning Americans are suffering declining living standards. The Main Street labor market is far weaker than the topline numbers or the conditions on Wall Street or K Street suggest.” https://www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com/press_releases/job-creators-network-reacts-to-march-jobs-report/ . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 23 minutes ago, B-Man said: BIDENOMICS IN ONE LESSON: Job Creators Network Reacts to March Jobs Report. “Looking under the hood of today’s jobs report shows it isn’t the home run that Democrats and the media claim. Approximately, half of all jobs created last month came in unproductive government or quasi-government healthcare sectors. Full-time jobs continue to decline, while part-time jobs are on the rise. And average wages are growing slower than inflation again, meaning Americans are suffering declining living standards. The Main Street labor market is far weaker than the topline numbers or the conditions on Wall Street or K Street suggest.” https://www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com/press_releases/job-creators-network-reacts-to-march-jobs-report/ . What raises my suspicions more than anything is the statistics of the numbers. This year so far, three statistically significant "beats" of consensus by what statisticians characterize as 5, 3, and 4 sigma. Two beats of such magnitude would be incredible but three in a row seems impossible. Has every professional job market expect that for decades nailed the jobs number every month lost their mojo? That would seem to be one logical conclusion unless you beleive the numbers are fake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanNC Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 🎯 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeBills Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 The WSJ broke the buck here with the proper/obvious explanation...the recent "immigrants" are keeping the US Job Machine alive... Everyday Americans must work 2-3 jobs to pay all these inflated prices, but it's "Immigration" that is firing up the Jobs reports. https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/unemployment-jobs-report-us-immigration-surge-8e260f47?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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