If the Bills Don’t Make it to the AFCCG, Should McDermott Be Fired?

[FireChans]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

The two hardest things in sports to me are finding a real QB and, regardless of the sport, finding a great HC.  It is far more common for coaching switches not to work.

Like I said, what examples do you have of teams firing their HC when they have a franchise QB, and them getting demonstrably worse?

 

You said it's more common. I don't think you're right. Show your work.

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Like I said, what examples do you have of teams firing their HC when they have a franchise QB, and them getting demonstrably worse?

 

You said it's more common. I don't think you're right. Show your work.

In general.  You are placing a specific set of circumstances on changing coaches.  I’m not.  And you cited a couple of examples to prove your point but also acknowledged they didn’t win championships.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

In general.  You are placing a specific set of circumstances on changing coaches.  I’m not.  And you cited a couple of examples to prove your point but also acknowledged they didn’t win championships.

We also haven't won championships.

 

So at worst, I've proved that its common to be basically a wash. But with several notable examples of it getting teams over the hump.

 

It's not more common for teams with franchise QB's to be worse after firing their coach. In fact, it's probably the rarest of all of the outcomes. So the argument " its more likely we could be worse off without McD" is just wrong.

[Slack_in_MA]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We also haven't won championships.

 

So at worst, I've proved that its common to be basically a wash. But with several notable examples of it getting teams over the hump.

 

It's not more common for teams with franchise QB's to be worse after firing their coach. In fact, it's probably the rarest of all of the outcomes. So the argument " its more likely we could be worse off without McD" is just wrong.

Who do you want, that is available, to replace him?

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

We also haven't won championships.

 

So at worst, I've proved that its common to be basically a wash. But with several notable examples of it getting teams over the hump.

 

It's not more common for teams with franchise QB's to be worse after firing their coach. In fact, it's probably the rarest of all of the outcomes. So the argument " its more likely we could be worse off without McD" is just wrong.

But I never said worse.  You did.  What I said is people always think the grass is greener but it rarely is.  So let’s say you replace a guy like McD with brand X.  You are doing so to make the next jump, and for the Bills it would be a Lombardi.  As you showed in the list of folks you mentioned many did not get their teams to make the next jump.  I find it interesting you use Marty S as an example since so many folks accuse McD of being another Marty I.e. can’t win the big one.

 

Be careful what you ask for, you might not get it.  You disagree that’s fine.

[FireChans]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

But I never said worse.  You did.  What I said is people always think the grass is greener but it rarely is.  So let’s say you replace a guy like McD with brand X.  You are doing so to make the next jump, and for the Bills it would be a Lombardi.  As you showed in the list of folks you mentioned many did not get their teams to make the next jump.  I find it interesting you use Marty S as an example since so many folks accuse McD of being another Marty I.e. can’t win the big one.

 

Be careful what you ask for, you might not get it.  You disagree that’s fine.

Not winning championships is just the same as not winning championships.

 

If we fired McD and hired a coach that got us to the Superbowl,  would it have been the right move?  Yes.

 

If we fired McD and hired a coach that got us to a divisional round exit, would it have been a bad move? No.

 

Marty S was an example of a team GETTING BETTER BECAUSE THEY FIRED HIM LOL.  They were paper tigers that couldn't win more than a playoff game. Norv took them the conference championship, with basically the same roster, one year later!

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Not winning championships is just the same as not winning championships.

 

If we fired McD and hired a coach that got us to the Superbowl,  would it have been the right move?  Yes.

 

If we fired McD and hired a coach that got us to a divisional round exit, would it have been a bad move? No.

 

Marty S was an example of a team GETTING BETTER BECAUSE THEY FIRED HIM LOL.  They were paper tigers that couldn't win more than a playoff game. Norv took them the conference championship, with basically the same roster, one year later!

So you would fire a guy if it meant the new guy would get you one step closer but still lose.  Well, that makes sense...

 

The problem you have is you’re not Nostradamus.  The stats on former HCs of Super Bowl teams taking another team to the dance are pretty poor if memory serves correct.  And picking a coordinator hoping they become a great HC aren’t great either.

[FireChans]

29 minutes ago, Slack_in_MA said:

Who do you want, that is available, to replace him?

I'm not advocating for firing McD right now, or even at the end of the year, if this season is a disappointment.  I think he has set a culture change in Buffalo from what we were, and I still think he's a good NFL coach.  Maybe not the best, but he's good IMO.

 

I am advocating for firing Dorsey pretty much any day now.

 

And if the OC position was not filled adequately next year with a guy who can actually do the job, I would probably fire McD next season.

 

But since you asked, I think pairing Josh with an offensive mind like Ben Johnson, who can set up a system around him, who can step in and fix the offense if an OC or two get hired away, would probably be our best vehicle for success.

 

There is one glaring flaw to McD's expertise, and that is that he cannot help us on offense.  When so many wins and losses in the NFL are basically because of your QB's arm, a coach with expertise in that area, to me, is far more valuable than a defensive coach, intrinsically.

 

When the Chiefs get into a rut, Andy Reid can step in, make some suggestions to Nagy, and if things are still going bad, he can call the plays himself. And Patrick Mahomes, who has already seen a couple coordinators on offense leave, doesn't have to have much, if anything, change around him in regards to the offenses direction.

 

Josh Allen is currently not in the same boat. If Ken Dorsey was this awesome electric OC, and was being talked about as an HC candidate (he's not, which is pretty much proof positive that he sucks because the offense statistically is still pretty good) and got hired away, there's a chance, a large chance, we would have another year or two of growing pains and new systems, new philosophies, etc. OR we would be promoting another QB coach or someone else who had little experience without a HC who could help them out who had proven years of NFL success in the OC role.

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So you would fire a guy if it meant the new guy would get you one step closer but still lose.  Well, that makes sense...

 

The problem you have is you’re not Nostradamus.  The stats on former HCs of Super Bowl teams taking another team to the dance are pretty poor if memory serves correct.  And picking a coordinator hoping they become a great HC aren’t great either.

No one is Nostradamus. If you are in the business of "we can't fire a coach because we don't know with 100% accuracy at the time of the decision that it will work out," well then, you're never going to agree.

 

Unfortunately, in reality, NFL owners and front offices have to deal with the uncertainty every single day about every single decision.

Edited October 19, 2023 by FireChans

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

He's 26.

 

People are acting like he's 36 

Joe - first of all, hello. 
 

But if you look at recent history, you’ll see that teams have won the Super Bowl with top tier QBs within their first 4 years of starting. 
 

We are in year six. 
 

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I'm not advocating for firing McD right now, or even at the end of the year, if this season is a disappointment.  I think he has set a culture change in Buffalo from what we were, and I still think he's a good NFL coach.  Maybe not the best, but he's good IMO.

 

I am advocating for firing Dorsey pretty much any day now.

 

And if the OC position was not filled adequately next year with a guy who can actually do the job, I would probably fire McD next season.

 

But since you asked, I think pairing Josh with an offensive mind like Ben Johnson, who can set up a system around him, who can step in and fix the offense if an OC or two get hired away, would probably be our best vehicle for success.

 

There is one glaring flaw to McD's expertise, and that is that he cannot help us on offense.  When so many wins and losses in the NFL are basically because of your QB's arm, a coach with expertise in that area, to me, is far more valuable than a defensive coach, intrinsically.

 

When the Chiefs get into a rut, Andy Reid can step in, make some suggestions to Nagy, and if things are still going bad, he can call the plays himself. And Patrick Mahomes, who has already seen a couple coordinators on offense leave, doesn't have to have much, if anything, change around him in regards to the offenses direction.

 

Josh Allen is currently not in the same boat. If Ken Dorsey was this awesome electric OC, and was being talked about as an HC candidate (he's not, which is pretty much proof positive that he sucks because the offense statistically is still pretty good) and got hired away, there's a chance, a large chance, we would have another year or two of growing pains and new systems, new philosophies, etc. OR we would be promoting another QB coach or someone else who had little experience without a HC who could help them out who had proven years of NFL success in the OC role.

No one is Nostradamus. If you are in the business of "we can't fire a coach because we don't know with 100% accuracy at the time of the decision that it will work out," well then, you're never going to agree.

 

Unfortunately, in reality, NFL owners and front offices have to deal with the uncertainty every single day about every single decision.

And as far as HC go it’s magnified.  You mention Johnson.  He’ll be the hot commodity this coming off season.  But does he have what it takes to be a HC?  Only one way to find out and if you’re wrong you cost your team years.

Edited October 19, 2023 by oldmanfan

[FireChans]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

And as far as HC go it’s magnified.  You mention Johnson.  He’ll be the hot commodity this coming off season.  But does he have what it takes to be a HC?  Inly one way to find out and if you’re wrong you cost your team years.

I HAVE JUST PROVED THAT THIS IS EMPHATICALLY NOT TRUE IN SITUATIONS LIKE OURS.

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Who brought us Allen?

Giving Beane immunity for drafting Allen is akin to worshiping Ralph for keeping the Bills in Buffalo. Meh. 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I HAVE JUST PROVED THAT THIS IS EMPHATICALLY NOT TRUE IN SITUATIONS LIKE OURS.

No you haven’t.  Most of your examples the guys did not win Lombardis.  If I’m reading you right you’re saying McAfoo replacing Coughlin is proof of your thesis because he got Eli to 11-5 after a few losing seasons.  If that’s your proof it’s laughable.

Edited October 19, 2023 by oldmanfan

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

No you haven’t.  Most of your examples the guys did not win Lombardis.

that does not equal COSTING YOUR TEAM YEARS.

 

Unless you think McD not winning Lombardi either is also costing our team years lmao. In which case, wtf are you even arguing then?

Edited October 19, 2023 by FireChans

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

that does not equal COSTING YOUR TEAM YEARS.

 

Unless you think McD not winning Lombardi either is also costing our team years lmao. In which case, wtf are you even arguing then?

You keep a HC that get you in the playoffs and give you a legitimate shot.  If he starts losing or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  That’s my philosophy.  Obviously not yours.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

You keep a HC that get you in the playoffs and give you a legitimate shot.  If he starts losing or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  That’s my philosophy.  Obviously not yours.

So new coach who doesn't win Lombardis = costing team seasons

 

McD not winning Lombardis =/= costing team seasons

 

that just does not compute.

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

So new coach who doesn't win Lombardis = costing team seasons

 

McD not winning Lombardis =/= costing team seasons

 

that just does not compute.

If you hire a guy that does not win, it costs you seasons.  McD gets you to the playoffs every year. He wins.  That gives you a shot.  But as I said if he starts to slide backward or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  I would also add managing the staff.  It was a smart move in my opinion to jettison Frazier and take over the D.  The D D s playing much better again IMHO.  He may need to look at OC if the struggles continue.  But since Josh wanted Dorsey from all accounts that would be an interesting call.

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

If you hire a guy that does not win, it costs you seasons.  McD gets you to the playoffs every year. He wins.  That gives you a shot.  But as I said if he starts to slide backward or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  I would also add managing the staff.  It was a smart move in my opinion to jettison Frazier and take over the D.  The D D s playing much better again IMHO.  He may need to look at OC if the struggles continue.  But since Josh wanted Dorsey from all accounts that would be an interesting call.

So we're just walking away from the point that new coaches with franchise QB's didn't work because they didn't all win Superbowls?

 

And we are ignoring that they have mostly won MORE playoff games and got deeper into the postseason?

 

Oooookay.

[Gugny]

26 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You keep a HC that get you in the playoffs and give you a legitimate shot.  If he starts losing or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  That’s my philosophy.  Obviously not yours.

Did you watch their last playoff game?

 

Or this year’s Jets and Jaguars games?

 

I’ve never seen more uninspired, “I’d rather be doing anything right now other than playing football,” football in my life. 
 

He lost this team after 13 seconds. 

[Buffalo Super Fan]

No I don’t want Sean McDermott fired if the Buffalo Bills don’t make the playoffs this season. First Don Granato needs to be fired if the Buffalo Sabres miss the playoffs this season regardless if it is only one point he needs to go if the Sabres don’t make it. I would hire Michael Peca as the new Sabres head coach. I don’t think the Buffalo Bills are Super Bowl contenders right now that window closed for now and the Bills need to rebuild on the fly in the draft. The Bills need offensive line badly, secondary help on defense and a go to running back with elite talent not above average talent before I start looking at Sean McDermott. With one exception if Bill Belichick became available I am interested as a Bills fan. Bill Belichick coaching a elite quarterback in Josh Allen would be the only exception where I would fire Sean McDermott. If Bill became available Sean goes as head coach only for Bill Belichick Brandon Beane would still be the Bills GM. Because I have no interest in Bill Belichick as a GM in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo