The Myth of the Bills over-focusing on defense in the Draft and FA

[Freddie's Dead]

On 2/24/2023 at 3:47 PM, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

Round 1 is where it's at, and that 5-1 or 5-2 balance shows the Bills true colors.  Add in the trade ups for D players, and even more draft picks have been spent (although the picks for Josh may balance, I'm too lazy to look it up).  Imma hold on to the myth, it gives me comfort.

[Manther]

On 2/24/2023 at 4:53 PM, Mango said:

Beane inherited the 10th most expensive line in the NFL.

 

He then made it the most expensive in 2019, 2020. 2nd most expensive in 2021. They did drop to 17th this year. But are currently the 3rd most expensive DL in cap dollars for 2023.

 

All the while spending a 1, 1, 2, 2, and 3rd round picks on the DL alone. That same unit has regularly been a top 5 paid unit across the league.
 

You can break it down however you want. But our spend vs return has been abysmal. 

Agreed and well said.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

These kinds of results are what happens when you restrict the field you are looking at all the way down to one or two games. Particularly when the whole team played bad in the second game. You end up with the typical results of looking at an extremely small sample size, which is to say plenty of freakish uncharacteristic results.

 

LMAO

 

Yeah, sorry bout that.  But since you hadn't noticed, we've had no more than two playoff games in either of the last two seasons, which feed into my points, which explain why the "sample size" is so small.  

 

You've hit on something here though that bolsters the overall point, is that fans WANT a larger sample size of postseason games too.  But hey, you can only use what's available. 

 

Thanks for pointing that out. 

 

 

[Meatloaf63]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Um, no, the reality is that 1st round interior OLs have been terrific investments. They aren't common. And yes, there's an opportunity cost to picking a guard (or anything else, actually). But guards taken in the first have been excellent players at an extremely high rate.

 

And saying Beane has been terrible in FA is just wrong. Dumb, really. Far from perfect, of course, which will be true of any GM at anything once the sample size gets large enough. But Von Miller, DaQuan Jones, Daryl Williams, Emanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Mitch Morse, Jordan Phillips

 

Goes without saying there have been some bad ones too, of course, with Saffold standing out. They shouldn't have let Kromer talk them into him. Plenty of others over the six years, but that is the way these things go. 

 

Some folks on here, not to name names, consistently argue that Beane is a poor drafter and that he's been bad at FA. 

 

Which would make it downright amazing that they're competitive for Super Bowls every year.

 

 

Yeah, that's more nonsense as well.

 

And I'm surprised how on target you are here. It is indeed bull#### that they are bad at talent evaluation. They aren't.  13-3 makes that very clear, consistent competitiveness does as well.

I agree with a lot of what you said. Except we haven’t been competitive for Super Bowls and we have only played in one AFC Championship game. So we have been good, but not nearly good enough. And I wouldn’t say Beane has been very good in the draft, without Allen, this team doesn’t make the playoffs the past few years.

[Dopey]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Josh Allen too. 48 for 81, for 616 yards and 3 TDs and 3 INTs. Obviously he sucks too, by your dumb argument. He's clearly a bust and we ought to think about getting rid of him.

 

Sorry, this is just stupid. The fact is that the whole team played awful against the Bengals. An awful lot of it was an deep bunch of injuries on defense and the emotional effects of this whole bizarre season including Hamlin literally dying on the field came home to roost. 

 

These kinds of results are what happens when you restrict the field you are looking at all the way down to one or two games. Particularly when the whole team played bad in the second game. You end up with the typical results of looking at an extremely small sample size, which is to say plenty of freakish uncharacteristic results.

 

 

Amen. 

[Dopey]

14 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

I agree with a lot of what you said. Except we haven’t been competitive for Super Bowls and we have only played in one AFC Championship game. So we have been good, but not nearly good enough. And I wouldn’t say Beane has been very good in the draft, without Allen, this team doesn’t make the playoffs the past few years.

The bold can be said of any team that loses it’s top 10 qb. 
Between this statement and the “Beane is lucky he has Josh” , I can’t think of anything more dumb. So, Beane was lucky he traded up to pick his guy? Again, what a dumb comment. 

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Um, no, the reality is that 1st round interior OLs have been terrific investments. They aren't common. And yes, there's an opportunity cost to picking a guard (or anything else, actually). But guards taken in the first have been excellent players at an extremely high rate.

 

And saying Beane has been terrible in FA is just wrong. Dumb, really. Far from perfect, of course, which will be true of any GM at anything once the sample size gets large enough. But Von Miller, DaQuan Jones, Daryl Williams, Emanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Mitch Morse, Jordan Phillips

 

Goes without saying there have been some bad ones too, of course, with Saffold standing out. They shouldn't have let Kromer talk them into him. Plenty of others over the six years, but that is the way these things go. 

 

Some folks on here, not to name names, consistently argue that Beane is a poor drafter and that he's been bad at FA. 

 

Which would make it downright amazing that they're competitive for Super Bowls every year.

 

 

Yeah, that's more nonsense as well.

 

And I'm surprised how on target you are here. It is indeed bull#### that they are bad at talent evaluation. They aren't.  13-3 makes that very clear, consistent competitiveness does as well.

 

 

As usual you back up your claims with no work.

 

I'm sure you'd say Quenton Nelson is your example of a terrific investment?   His game dropped off already a couple seasons ago......remember seeing Tim Settle plow him over in preseason?  It wasn't because Settle was on his way to a great season.   And to make matters worse,  a very average guard is now on a 4 year $80M deal because that's what you do with the 6th overall pick.   Bills took Josh Allen with the next pick.   Colts lack a WR1 and CB1.......island positions.    They are unsettled or middling at LT and DE.......edge positions.

 

There were 2 more interior OL picked in the round.........Frank Ragnow.......nice center but has $60M in cap hits the next 4 years..........and Billy Price, who was a total bust and likely playing in XFL next season.

 

And that was a better year than most for interior OL picks.    All 1st round picks are close to 50/50 just to get their option picked up.......interior OL aren't any safer bets.......they just bring lower ceilings of impact.

 

As for your list of free agents.........the entire 2018 class was about as long as your "good" list..........and Beane spent upwards of $100M on those guys and they all sucked.  Including your boy, Lotulelei.   The Bills have been very busy in free agency under Beane.........the returns have been poor.

 

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Meatloaf63]

13 hours ago, Dopey said:

The bold can be said of any team that loses it’s top 10 qb. 
Between this statement and the “Beane is lucky he has Josh” , I can’t think of anything more dumb. So, Beane was lucky he traded up to pick his guy? Again, what a dumb comment. 

The fact that you can only see a situation from your point of view and then resort to name calling of those you disagree with pretty much makes you the ignorant one. Of course you can only think something is dumb, that’s a reflection of you intelligence…. Or lack of it….

[gonzo1105]

Now break it down further okay we have spent more on offense in the 2nd and 3rd round. Problem is 3 of them are on a non premium position in RB, the guy had been an awful day 2 drafter but he also has put too many premium picks into a non premium area 

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:

The fact that you can only see a situation from your point of view and then resort to name calling of those you disagree with pretty much makes you the ignorant one. Of course you can only think something is dumb, that’s a reflection of you intelligence…. Or lack of it….

I don't know you, so I don't know if you're dumb or not. I never called you dumb, I said it was a dumb comment. I can't help your level of sensitivity.