The “math” of going for 2 makes no sense

[Cheektowaga Chad]

26 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Fair I read it as the last attempt is not 50/50 cause the first attempt.  I read your other posts and did come away with it being loose language not misunderstanding.  

Original poster generally seemed curious as to the base thought process, I tried my best to just deliver the base ideas

 

 

[Special K]

1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

 

Yeah, who needs informed decision-making when you can just go with your gut instinct?

 

 

There is informed decision making, and there is over-informed decision making.

 

Keep it simple, over-analysis leads to paralysis. 

Edited November 2, 2021 by Special K

[Nextmanup]

4 hours ago, Special K said:

There is informed decision making, and there is over-informed decision making.

 

Keep it simple, over-analysis leads to paralysis. 

Enjoy the meat head traditional football approach while you can.

 

Even the idiots in football are starting to figure out that doing things smarter is better.

 

In 5 years, all NFL decisions will be 100% analytics driven, as they should be.

 

 

[Behindenemylines]

I would think you could develop a series of plays that give you a greater chance of conversion countering any defense shown. 
 

if so I would go for a 2 PT conversion every time.  Could be worth an “possession “ each game

[without a drought]

A 2 point conversion is worth twice as much as an extra point. Seems like simple math to me.

 

 

Bonus lesson - A touchdown (6 points) is worth twice as much as a field goal (3 points).

 

 

[Turk71]

On 10/31/2021 at 2:55 PM, Cheektowaga Chad said:

 If you miss you go for 2 again and statistically you have a better chance of making it after missing 1 already

Your odds don't improve the 2nd time. The odds are still ~ 50%, the same as the first.