The “math” of going for 2 makes no sense

[Cheektowaga Chad]

  On 11/2/2021 at 6:57 PM, YattaOkasan said:

Fair I read it as the last attempt is not 50/50 cause the first attempt.  I read your other posts and did come away with it being loose language not misunderstanding.  

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Original poster generally seemed curious as to the base thought process, I tried my best to just deliver the base ideas

 

 

[Special K]

  On 11/2/2021 at 6:20 PM, WhoTom said:

 

Yeah, who needs informed decision-making when you can just go with your gut instinct?

 

 

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There is informed decision making, and there is over-informed decision making.

 

Keep it simple, over-analysis leads to paralysis. 

Edited November 2, 2021 by Special K

[Nextmanup]

  On 11/2/2021 at 7:25 PM, Special K said:

There is informed decision making, and there is over-informed decision making.

 

Keep it simple, over-analysis leads to paralysis. 

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Enjoy the meat head traditional football approach while you can.

 

Even the idiots in football are starting to figure out that doing things smarter is better.

 

In 5 years, all NFL decisions will be 100% analytics driven, as they should be.

 

 

[Behindenemylines]

I would think you could develop a series of plays that give you a greater chance of conversion countering any defense shown. 
 

if so I would go for a 2 PT conversion every time.  Could be worth an “possession “ each game

[without a drought]

A 2 point conversion is worth twice as much as an extra point. Seems like simple math to me.

 

 

Bonus lesson - A touchdown (6 points) is worth twice as much as a field goal (3 points).

 

 

[Turk71]

  On 10/31/2021 at 9:55 PM, Cheektowaga Chad said:

 If you miss you go for 2 again and statistically you have a better chance of making it after missing 1 already

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Your odds don't improve the 2nd time. The odds are still ~ 50%, the same as the first.