Scouting The Miami Dolphins (Round 2)

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Another huge 'this isn't your same old Bills' moment in a season full of them. We were already AFC East Champs, but this game was the moment where that achievement really became real. Dominating the Patriots in Gillette Stadium is something we could only dream about for the past couple decades, but Allen and the rest of the team made it look easy against one of the best defensive minds in NFL history. Maybe it's the fact that I was up until 5 AM and had to fight off the adrenaline for 4 hours of restless sleep, but it still hasn't really sunk in yet just how different, dangerous, and exciting this team is. As I said in the post game thread, our Bills have been a source of happiness and pride and a real bright spot in a very tough year for a lot of people. So proud of my team and my hometown! 

 

Looking ahead, we're returning home for the regular season finale against the 10-5 Miami Dolphins who are coming off a miraculous comeback win against Las Vegas. ***There is some uncertainty around whether the Bills will play their starters or back ups***, but same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Dolphins' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics.***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings

 

 

December 13th- Week 14 Loss at Home vs Kansas City (the Chiefs (current record: 14-1) have the 1st ranked offense, 17th ranked defense, and 17th ranked special teams) by a score of 33-27:

• Tua Tagovailoa- 28/48 for 316 yards, 2 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, and 1 INT. Tua gets the ball out quick and is accurate on short throws, but doesn't seem to threaten the defense vertically very often or very effectively. Threw one nice deep ball to Grant and wasn't at fault for the resulting INT. Tua isn't quite as mobile as I had expected, but can scramble well if the defense allows and shows good awareness/movement in the pocket to avoid pressure in most cases. Executed a successful QB sneak, scoring from the one yard line late in the 4th quarter. Took a big sack to end the first half (wasting a potential FG opportunity) and was sacked for a safety in the second half, but he's a rookie and he'll learn from those mistakes. Similar to the Patriots offense, Tua relies on solid gains on early downs in order to sustain drives as he isn't effective in third-and-long situations. Tua was sacked four times and Miami's offensive line struggled in pass protection. 
• Dolphins Running Game- Miami was working with a short-handed RB group and opted for a more pass heavy game plan. DeAndre Washington was their lead back and was very ineffective (35 yards and 2.7 YPC). 
• Devante Parker- He's their ideal #1 WR coming off his breakout 2019 season, but has struggled with injuries and lacked chemistry with Tua in 2020. Had zero catches and was a non-factor in this game. I believe his status is questionable for Sunday. 
• Mack Hollins (5 receptions for 66 yards) and Lynn Bowden Jr. (7 receptions for 82 yards)- Both of these players have gotten more run recently due to the Dolphins injuries and were the Dolphins two leading receivers in this match up. Hollins, a journeyman back up for most of his career, is a physical possession receiver with steady hands (a C+ version of Tim Patrick on Denver IMO). Bowden Jr is a shifty jack-of-all-trades kind of player that the Raiders gave up on very prematurely IMO and he's a wildcard that has flashed at times for Miami. In college, Bowden stepped up at Kentucky after an injury to their QB and filled in adequately at that position so Miami uses him for the occasional Wildcat formation or trick play where he can use his triple threat ability.
• Jakeem Grant (3 receptions for 32 yards)- Likely out on Sunday with an ankle injury. Elite speed guy who has carved out a larger role in the Dolphins offense this season (I've always thought he has been under-used in Miami). Their jet-motion and gimmick play weapon in addition to a threat out of the slot. Struggles with drops sometimes (juggled a deep ball that hit him in both hands that resulted in a Mathieu INT just before halftime), but he scares me as a WR and returner simply because there aren't many players on our roster that can run with him. 
• Mike Gesicki (5 receptions for 65 yards and 2 TDs)- The most important player on their offense and a young star having his breakout season in this league. A freak athlete with great hands, refined route-running, and a knack for clutch plays (see his second TD grab where he took the ball away from safety Juan Thornhill in mid-air). In a parallel universe, Gesicki would be the perfect TE to pair with Allen and our current offense to put us over the top. Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe are much less athletic but reliable players who get some targets as well. TEs are heavily featured in Gailey's offense. 
• Dolphins Run Defense- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a tough assignment for any defense and Miami struggled to contain him on a couple toss plays and draws, but ultimately held CEH and Le'Veon Bell to 53 combined rushing yards. Christian Wilkins and his lesser-known defensive linemate Zach Sieler both impressed me with some key TFLs. Miami missed three tackles on a 32 yard Tyreek Hill jet sweep TD.
• Dolphins Pass Defense- An up-and-down performance from Mahomes (24/34 for 393 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs) with some self-inflicted errors. Mahomes had a nightmare first quarter, but it was more mistakes and poor decision-making on his part rather than what the Miami defense was doing based on what I saw. First, he forced an ill-advised throw on a well covered TE screen to Kelce which was tipped up into the air by Andrew Van Ginkel at the LoS and picked off by Byron Jones. On the next drive, Mahomes fumbled a snap and then took a THIRTY YARD SACK on back-to-back plays (Jerome Baker did well to pursue him and not bite on any of his twists). Finally, Mahomes simply overthrew CEH on a short HB circle route and the ball was intercepted by Eric Rowe. I think Rowe prides himself on being one of the NFL's best at neutralizing TEs, but he and the rest of the Miami defense couldn't guard Kelce (8 catches for 136 yards and 1 TD) at all. Xavien Howard is a ballhawk and made an excellent one-handed INT in the end zone, but he had a mostly poor game vs KC, getting looked off on the Kelce TD and then getting beat by Hill for a long TD pass. The Dolphins do a great job most weeks of confusing the opposing QB and forcing turnovers with their amoeba-type defense so you never know who is rushing and who is dropping into coverage. Miami sacked Mahomes three times (Jerome Baker 2.5, Wilkins 0.5), but failed to get consistent pressure. KC has so much speed and is the best at making you defend every inch of the field, but even considering that disclaimer, Miami isn't especially quick on defense and I think they can be beaten in the wider areas of the field. 
• Miscellaneous- Miami averaged 4.8 yards per play which underlines the lack of explosive plays from Tua and the offense. Jason Sanders was red-hot earlier this season and is still having a really strong year, but he's missed a few kicks in recent weeks. Miami's punt coverage unit allowed Mecole Hardman too much room up the left sideline and he scored untouched on a 67-yard punt return TD. A unusually poor day for their top five ranked special teams. Miami committed 3 penalties for 35 yards. 

 

 

December 20th- Week 15 Win at Home vs New England (the Patriots (current record: 6-8) have the 24th ranked offense, 23rd ranked defense, and 1st ranked special teams) by a score of 22-12:

• Tua Tagovailoa- In the absence of Gesicki, Parker, and Grant due to injury, Miami did most of their damage on the ground with Tua managing the game and dinking and dunking through the air (20/26 for 145 yards, 0 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, and 1 INT). Miami's RT Robert Hunt got beat inside and Tua's arm was hit on a throw into the end zone, resulting in a JC Jackson INT. Tua nearly scored on a well-executed RPO keeper in the red zone and later scrambled for the game-winning TD, making a couple of Pats miss in the process. The Pats sacked Tua twice (Adam Butler and Adrian Phillips), but the Miami line had one of their better games albeit against a feeble NE pass rush. 
• Dolphins Running Game- Miami broke their 31 game streak without an 100-yard rusher. Salvon Ahmed (122 yards, 5.3 YPC, and 1 TD) found a lot of room to run off tackle and Matt Breida (86 yards and 7.2 YPC, he's been criminally under-used in the Dolphins offense before this game IMHO) broke off some big gains as well. Miami had four drives of 10+ plays and you could tell that the Patriots defense was gassed by the fourth quarter. 
• Devante Parker- Missed this game with an injury. I believe his status is questionable for Sunday. 
• Mack Hollins (2 receptions for 18 yards) and Lynn Bowden Jr. (6 receptions for 37 yards)- Although the production wasn't huge, both of these players played an even more significant role this week as the top two available receivers on the Dolphins depth chart. In addition, Bowden took a double reverse and after initially looking to throw, made 4-5 defenders miss and picked up a first down with his legs. 
• Jakeem Grant - Missed this game with an injury. Likely out on Sunday with an ankle injury. 
• Dolphins TEs- Adam Shaheen (1 catch for 15 yards) and Durham Smythe (5 catches for 40 yards) stepped up in Gesicki's place and helped bail out Tua on multiple third downs.
• Dolphins Run Defense- Sony Michel (74 yards and 7.4 YPC) filled in nicely on the ground in Damien Harris' absence and hit some longer runs on the perimeter. Newton was able to pick up some first downs with his legs (38 rushing yards) when the Dolphins pass rush got over-aggressive.
• Dolphins Pass Defense- Newton (17/27 for 209 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs) actually had one of his better games passing the ball, but New England's offense never truly threatened the Dolphins. Meyers (7 receptions for 111 yards) made a number of key catches and made a couple guys miss after the catch. I thought Newton and Meyers did their best work exploiting space over the middle of the field (similar to what Buffalo was able to accomplish in Week 2 on crossing routes). Miami's LB group also struggled to cover James White (4 catches for 52 yards) out of the backfield. Byron Jones locked up N'Keal Harry throughout the game. Xavien Howard continued his impressive takeaway streak and forced a pivotal Jakobi Meyers fumble in the second half. Miami sacked Newton three times (Baker, Sieler, and Ogbah with one each). NE's passing game is already so limited that this wasn't really a fair fight given that Miami's secondary is likely the strength of their entire team. 
• Miscellaneous- NE led this game 6-0 at halftime. Miami averaged 5.5 yards per play buoyed by a really strong rushing performance. Miami faked a punt on 4th-and-7 at midfield and their punter Matt Haack threw an impressive spiral across the field to pick up the first down, but the play was called back on an ineligible man downfield penalty. Jason Sanders missed a 52 yard FG attempt as time expired in the 1st half. Gailey dialed up a successful hook-and-ladder play for a two point conversion in the fourth quarter. Miami committed 7 penalties for 40 yards. 

 

 

December 27th- Week 16 Win AT Las Vegas (the Raiders (current record: 7-8) have the 18th ranked offense, 29th ranked defense, and 13th ranked special teams) by a score of 26-25:

• Tua Tagovailoa-  17/22 for 94 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs. Another dink-and-dunk type of game for Tagovailoa, his completion percentage looks great, but not many highlights to speak of. Tua got away with a sure INT as he tried to throw across his body that the Raiders safety dropped. Ryan Fitzpatrick (9/13 for 182 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs) replaced Tua with around 9 minutes left and was able to move the ball downfield more effectively. Two big throws to Gesicki while he was tightly covered and the final throw to set up the winning FG while getting face-masked stood out. The Dolphins line allowed three sacks. 
• Dolphins Running Game- Myles Gaskin (87 rushing yards and 6.2 YPC along with 82 receiving yards and 2 TDs) is an impressive rookie RB and looked healthy after missing the previous games with an injury. Gaskin was a weapon in the passing game as well catching two TDs while showcasing his vision, ability to break tackles, and elusiveness. Solomon Kindley (the starting rookie RG) missed this game and I thought the interior of the Dolphins O-line got pushed around. Miami failed to pick up some key third-and-short situations as a result. 
• Devante Parker- Missed this game with an injury. I believe his status is questionable for Sunday. 
• Mack Hollins (2 receptions for 42 yards) and Lynn Bowden Jr. (2 receptions and 16 total yards)- Hollins dropped a potential TD late in the game, costing Miami 4 points as they ultimately settled for a short FG, but then made up for it with a big catch to set up the game-winning FG. Bowden Jr picked up a first down with his legs as the QB in a Wildcat formation. 
• Jakeem Grant (5 receptions for 43 yards)- Likely out on Sunday with an ankle injury. The Raiders didn't have anyone who could keep up with Grant and gave him a big cushion to avoid giving up the deep ball. His somewhat unreliable hands resurfaced though on a key 3rd down where he juggled the ball and wasn't able to convert as a result. 
• Mike Gesicki (4 receptions for 54 yards)- Really came alive after Fitz entered the game and made a few key grabs to set up the late Dolphins scores. 
• Dolphins Run Defense- Josh Jacobs was mostly effective (69 yards and 5.3 YPC), but didn't get the ball much as Vegas went pass happy. Wilkins and Sieler combined to stuff Josh Jacobs on a pivotal 4th-and-1 carry. 
• Dolphins Pass Defense- Miami was able to survive a strong game from Carr (21/34 for 336 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs) with some stingy red zone defense. The Raiders were 0-10 on third downs heading into the fourth quarter and Miami did a good job at times of forcing them into third-and-long situations. Eric Rowe got dominated again for the second time in 3 weeks, this time by Darren Waller (5 receptions for 112 yards). Miami's scheme counts on Rowe locking down the opposing TE in single coverage, but Kelce and Waller have made them pay (granted those are two of the top 3 TEs in the league, but I thought the Bills defense that was struggling and injured earlier this year did a much better job of limiting them). It's weird that Flores didn't adjust this element of their defense at all. I also thought Byron Jones really struggled in this match up, getting beaten for pace by Nelson Agholor (155 yards and 1 TD) on multiple occasions including a late 85 yard go-ahead TD and taking bad angles to the ball in the run game. It got me thinking that Diggs or Brown should have the same advantage. Miami sacked Carr 3 times (Van Ginkel 2.0 and Jerome Baker 1.0) and most of the pressure Miami is able to generate comes from their LB blitz packages rather than the defensive line getting home. 
• Miscellaneous- Miami gave up a 32 yard punt return by Hunter Renfrow in the 1st quarter, hopefully there will be some daylight for Roberts to break one on Sunday. Elandon Roberts suffered a significant knee injury in this game and that's a big loss for the Dolphins. They have more athletic and talented players, but he's a smart, instinctive backer who knows Flores' scheme inside out. Miami faked another punt at midfield for the second consecutive week and picked up the first down with a short snap to one of the blockers. Vegas elected to run clock and kick a FG on their last possession instead of scoring a TD which they wound up regretting. Miami committed 5 penalties for 76 yards. 

 

 

January 3rd - Week 17 Miami Dolphins (current record: 10-5, the Dolphins have the 16th ranked offense, 11th ranked defense, and 4th ranked special teams) Away vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 12-3, the Bills have the 5th ranked offense, 13th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams)

***A lot of this could change based on whether our starters play or not. For the purpose of this section, I'll pretend that our starters will play a significant amount of snaps.***

• Bills On Offense- Flores is a solid defensive mind and I like his style of defense in the way that it's so unpredictable who is rushing the passer and who is dropping into coverage. The key is to hold up in pass protection and give the QB time to throw...if that happens, the Dolphins are vulnerable even though Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are one of the best CB duos in the league. They've each had a shaky game recently in my view and I think Diggs and Brown would give them trouble. Eric Rowe has also struggled in the games I've watched and while Dawson Knox isn't Kelce or Waller, his athleticism should allow him to get similar separation in coverage. Miami's LBs are effective blitzers, but the Bills should find some space to run and using McKenzie's speed pre-snap should unsettle them. The defensive line features solid players across the board, but Miami doesn't currently have any elite edge talent and Josh should have time to throw in this match up. As in past games, the Bills should continue to spread the defense out with 3-4 WR sets, picking on Miami's CBs further down the depth chart like Nik Needham/Noah Igbinoghene and running the ball against those lighter boxes. 

 

• Bills On Defense- With their closer of sorts Fitzpatrick out for the game (get well soon Fitzy), I think the strategy here has to be to stack the box to stop the run and also sit on the shorter routes where Tua typically finds his rhythm and feels comfortable. The goal should be forcing Tua to beat you on deeper, more vertical throws consistently where he has had trouble diagnosing what the opposing safeties are doing pre and post-snap according to some of the Miami beat reporters. Thankfully, we have Hyde and Poyer, two of the best in the league at confusing QBs with their coverages and deception. Furthermore, Miami's line is very average and has been starting three rookies so our defensive line should be able to win the LoS and get pressure. Gaskin and Breida are solid backs who are shifty and can hurt you in the pass game so we need to gang tackle and maintain strong gap integrity. I would bracket Gesicki where possible although Milano is a great neutralizer against TEs and he may be one of the few who can hang with him. Our defense is playing so much better than in our first match up and I have a lot of confidence that Frazier and his guys can make life tough on the rookie QB.

 

• On Special Teams- Miami has a very solid special teams unit highlighted by Sanders who has become one of the league's best kickers and Grant who is a dangerous return man. However, with Grant likely out and Sanders dealing with the Buffalo elements, this could eliminate some of their strength in this phase. Miami can be quite aggressive using fake punts and trick plays on special teams so that's something Farwell and his group will have to be prepared for. Lastly, I think Roberts should have some room on punt returns, it would be great to see him finally take one back to the house. 

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. I'm very interested to see Tua face our defense for the first time and to see what Josh can do against Howard and Jones (Jones was injured early on during Week 2). Miami is a much improved team this season given their free agency spending and draft haul and they are well coached, but Buffalo is a couple years ahead at the QB position and overall rebuild. If the starters play, I would expect a Buffalo win. All bets are off if we rest some or all of our top players especially Allen as I don't know how we are going to score with Barkley (QB2 really needs to be upgraded this off-season). In my view, I think the ideal plan would be to rest anyone who has even the smallest knock, play the other starters for maybe two series while hopefully building a lead/checking on the Pittsburgh score, and then bringing in the back ups. The number two seed is important to me and it's a tricky line to walk because we also want to protect the health of the players, but I trust McDermott to make the right decision.

 

All the best, stay healthy, Happy New Year, and Go Bills!

[Freddie's Dead]

Tya Taylorvailoa or Turod Tagovaiaylor will not beat us.  He only throws safe passes to wide open receivers within 10 yards of the LOS.  Bills should win big, even with backups.

[Chandler#81]

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Scouting the Dolphins - Tua is a dump off artist, Captain Checkdown Part 2.0.

 

So tackle effectively from 0-10 yards.

 

The Dolphins have little run game.

 

On Defense, their strength is the corners, so the Offensive Line must open holes in the run game and give Barkely protection to find the open man.

[JMF2006]

I can't wait to see Davis Webbs package

[Haslett_Stomp]

Nice analysis, thanks for taking the time to put this together.  It will be interesting to see how Coach McD handles the lineups.

[Dukestreetking]

4 hours ago, Haslett_Stomp said:

Nice analysis, thanks for taking the time to put this together.  It will be interesting to see how Coach McD handles the lineups.

Same. Thanks for taking the time and effort... regardless of whether there's agreement on this or that point.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

21 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Love Walken. But if this is in reference to my OP, any feedback to improve it? To be fair, it was kind of a tough week for me to review and provide analysis given the uncertainty of who will suit up for the Bills. 

[Rocky Landing]

The absence of Fitz makes this game so much easier to plan, I would think. The Phins offense looks like an utterly different team with Fitz under center. Flores has stated that Tua would start, but pretty likely that Fitz would have taken over at some point. But, even with Fitz on the sideline for the entire game, his relationship with Tua is pretty vital for the rook.

 

With Fitz, his release is so quick, and he is so good at reading defenses, that I would expect some press man coverage, take away the short passing routes, force him to throw long, and get him out of the pocket.

Tua, on the other hand-- keep him in the pocket. Pressure from the outside. And, I will expect a lot of disguised coverages-- something the Bills currently do very well. In fact, I think the Bills' D is going to look like they're square-dancing up until the ball snaps. When the Phins O-line sets, the Bills D-line will shift. LBs, and safeties will rush the line, then drop back, or not, and keep Tua confused. 

 

Without Fitz on the sideline to mentor Tua, he's going to have a hard time managing this game. Whether Fitz would have seen the field, or not, this game got easier with his absence, IMO. The Phins have a decent running game, but really only two receivers to worry about-- Parker, and Gisecki. 

 

The Bills O only needs to do what they do. Hopefully, Motor/Moss have a good day, and Daboll plays a balanced offense. If we can get a decent lead in the first half, they should take it easy the second. I'm not for resting the starters, per se. I think we want to win this game. But, they should be able to limit Diggs, give Smoke enough reps to get his legs back, but keep him limited as well, and Allen should take it easy. 

 

Those are my thoughts. As always, thanks for this writeup, @Dont Stop Billeiving  (and ignore @Chandler#81. He's a grumpy old man.)

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Rocky Landing