New era in quarterbacking?

[BADOLBILZ]

22 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

Every year QBs miss games or gone for the season.  Look at the mess in Dallas this year, and Steelers last year.  In 2018, Washington lost Smith and McCoy 2 weeks apart--both with broken legs.

 

Kelly, Marino and Elway missed 52 games out of 684 games. Unless you believe that those guys were somehow more immune to injury than todays QB athletes, then not much has changed for QBs.

 

Also:

 

10 NFL QBs have an average annual salary of $30 million or more, compared to 23 NBA players and 14 MLB.  Of the largest sport contracts signed for the 3 leagues, Mahomes is #1, but the only other QB in the top 50 is Watson (35).  The rest are all MLB and NBA.  And those are guaranteed contracts.

 

 

 

 

Major injuries happen in every season to NBA players or MLB players too.

 

Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, DeMarcus Cousins.....all "max" contract players......all missed seasons recently and/or currently.

 

Then think of all of the pitchers who end up getting Tommy John surgery.   Nearly 20% of all pitchers end up getting TJ.

 

Injuries happen in every sport.

 

QB career expectancy has exploded.    Instead of guys built like LB's in Kelly and Marino enduring the punishment and flaming out at 36-37..............now we have much more slightly built soft tossers like Brady and Brees playing at a very high level into their 40's. 

 

The NBA is the only real good comparison to QB pay-potential........guys like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or DeShaun Watson now have the potential to earn $30M-$40M type money for 15-17 years.........great NBA players who enter the league at 19 have the potential to make that kind of money.

 

In MLB you basically play 6 years(plus any years of minor league service) to reach unrestricted free agency between the ages of 27-30.   And 30 teams have 10 positions each that a player could earn $30M playing if they are great enough.   So 14 out of 300 MLB starters/aces make top dollar.  In the NFL 10 of 32 starting QB's make top dollar.    Profiling as a starting QB made it much easier for top baseball prospects like Mahomes and Kyler Murray to choose football. 

 

I will say this though..........in MLB a glut of talent caused by massive amounts of foreign players and youth baseball enrollment in the US skyrocketing has created a minor league system with a bunch of formerly-MLB-worthy talent in limbo and that surplus has really turned the pay scale of the league into much more of a have and have-not situation.

 

In football.........there are more capable QB's than ever.    The talent level is night and day from 15 years ago.   For example......last years leading yardage passer is a backup QB in New Orleans this year.    If the trend continues........2-3 stud QB's entering the league every year + top QB's playing for 20 years = that will alter the pay scale.

 

[Billzgobowlin]

7 hours ago, dma0034 said:

 

Tampa does get to play against the AFC East next year

 

Lamar Jackson??? 

Nope not the same...  Don't get me wrong Jackson can run but the lateral quickness and the ability to juke someone out on a dime is something that I haven't seen since.

[Maynard]

Vick was way more explosive then Jackson. Not even close. 

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Major injuries happen in every season to NBA players or MLB players too.

 

Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, DeMarcus Cousins.....all "max" contract players......all missed seasons recently and/or currently.

 

Then think of all of the pitchers who end up getting Tommy John surgery.   Nearly 20% of all pitchers end up getting TJ.

 

Injuries happen in every sport.

 

QB career expectancy has exploded.    Instead of guys built like LB's in Kelly and Marino enduring the punishment and flaming out at 36-37..............now we have much more slightly built soft tossers like Brady and Brees playing at a very high level into their 40's. 

 

The NBA is the only real good comparison to QB pay-potential........guys like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or DeShaun Watson now have the potential to earn $30M-$40M type money for 15-17 years.........great NBA players who enter the league at 19 have the potential to make that kind of money.

 

In MLB you basically play 6 years(plus any years of minor league service) to reach unrestricted free agency between the ages of 27-30.   And 30 teams have 10 positions each that a player could earn $30M playing if they are great enough.   So 14 out of 300 MLB starters/aces make top dollar.  In the NFL 10 of 32 starting QB's make top dollar.    Profiling as a starting QB made it much easier for top baseball prospects like Mahomes and Kyler Murray to choose football. 

 

I will say this though..........in MLB a glut of talent caused by massive amounts of foreign players and youth baseball enrollment in the US skyrocketing has created a minor league system with a bunch of formerly-MLB-worthy talent in limbo and that surplus has really turned the pay scale of the league into much more of a have and have-not situation.

 

In football.........there are more capable QB's than ever.    The talent level is night and day from 15 years ago.   For example......last years leading yardage passer is a backup QB in New Orleans this year.    If the trend continues........2-3 stud QB's entering the league every year + top QB's playing for 20 years = that will alter the pay scale.

 

 

You said this:  

"1) Top QB's started getting paid better than any US athletes short of the very finest in the NBA."  Not true, as I showed---both in annual salaries and total contracts (where there are 2 in the top 50.  Two have MLB type contracts).  Mahomes and Murray went the the NFL because they were easy 1st round NFL prospects (but making relatively little money.  They weren't going to be playing in the MLB as rookies, if at all ever.

 

"Great NBA players"?  Making more than $30 million are such "greats" as Kevin Love (TOTAL bum), Tobias Harris, Mike Conley, Blake Griffin (done),  John Wall.

 

 

"Built like LBs"??  Kelly and Elway were under 220lbs.  Lightweights.  Both Mannings were bigger.   Elway played 16 seasons, Marino 17.  Moon played 17, Favre played 20.  None of this is new, "2010" or not. 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

Sometimes I wonder if it's as simple as natural population growth and football becoming more popular over the last 20 years. More kids playing football equals more chances a few of them will grow up to be stars.

[Orlando Buffalo]

The biggest change to me from 30 years ago is teams seem more willing to tailor the offense around the player (LJ, Murray) vs telling the player to learn the system. I think old school coaches were so afraid of appearing dumb they would never do anything out of the ordinary.

[BADOLBILZ]

21 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You said this:  

"1) Top QB's started getting paid better than any US athletes short of the very finest in the NBA."  Not true, as I showed---both in annual salaries and total contracts (where there are 2 in the top 50.  Two have MLB type contracts).  Mahomes and Murray went the the NFL because they were easy 1st round NFL prospects (but making relatively little money.  They weren't going to be playing in the MLB as rookies, if at all ever.

 

"Great NBA players"?  Making more than $30 million are such "greats" as Kevin Love (TOTAL bum), Tobias Harris, Mike Conley, Blake Griffin (done),  John Wall.

 

 

"Built like LBs"??  Kelly and Elway were under 220lbs.  Lightweights.  Both Mannings were bigger.   Elway played 16 seasons, Marino 17.  Moon played 17, Favre played 20.  None of this is new, "2010" or not. 

 

 

 

 

 

1) Murray was a high 1st round pick and given a $5M bonus by the Oakland A's.   He wasn't likely to play in MLB as a rookie but probably in year 2.    Years ago going to MLB would have been the easy choice for him.    Less violent......longer career........guranteed contracts and very good baseball players got paid more than great QB's.    Those aren't the economics of baseball anymore.   Careers are shorter with PED's legislated better.......teams work to delay free agency and are loathe to pay players past their age 32 year any longer(which is still middle of the prime of a modern QB)..........and the supply greatly exceeds the demand everywhere except pitcher and catcher........neither of which Murray played.

 

2) Carson Wentz is in your "top paid QB" list is he not?..........he's not a top QB.........but he is paid $30M.........it works both ways.........all leagues have dudes who flame out or get overpaid for one reason or another.   All those NBA players you mentioned were All Stars.   That represents the league's finest.  

 

3) Yes, built like LB's.   I don't think Jim Kelly was less than 220 pounds at any point after HS.   Penn State wanted him as a LB.  That's a list of big, strong dudes.  Jim Kelly was physically beaten after age 35 season.  Marino was finished after 37 and diminished before that.   Nowadays they both play another 5 years at a high level and pocket an extra $150M in the process.

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

The biggest change to me from 30 years ago is teams seem more willing to tailor the offense around the player (LJ, Murray) vs telling the player to learn the system. I think old school coaches were so afraid of appearing dumb they would never do anything out of the ordinary.

 

 

I like to use Charlie Ward as an example of this.

 

If Charlie Ward wasn't a better QB prospect than Russell Wilson I will eat my hat...........but in that NFL he wasn't going to get a system tailored to him like Russ.

 

And the earning potential even as a fringe NBA player was better than being a good NFL QB.    Charlie Ward made $34M in 12 seasons as a serviceable player in the NBA........Jim Kelly made $28M in 11 seasons as a HOF QB.   Their careers didn't directly overlay but the fact that Ward would have finished anywhere near a HOF QB in career earnings says it all.   

Edited December 13, 2020 by BADOLBILZ

[Mr. WEO]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) Murray was a high 1st round pick and given a $5M bonus by the Oakland A's.   He wasn't likely to play in MLB as a rookie but probably in year 2.    Years ago going to MLB would have been the easy choice for him.    Less violent......longer career........guranteed contracts and very good baseball players got paid more than great QB's.    Those aren't the economics of baseball anymore.   Careers are shorter with PED's legislated better.......teams work to delay free agency and are loathe to pay players past their age 32 year any longer(which is still middle of the prime of a modern QB)..........and the supply greatly exceeds the demand everywhere except pitcher and catcher........neither of which Murray played.

 

2) Carson Wentz is in your "top paid QB" list is he not?..........he's not a top QB.........but he is paid $30M.........it works both ways.........all leagues have dudes who flame out or get overpaid for one reason or another.   All those NBA players you mentioned were All Stars.   That represents the league's finest.  

 

3) Yes, built like LB's.   I don't think Jim Kelly was less than 220 pounds at any point after HS.   Penn State wanted him as a LB.  That's a list of big, strong dudes.  Jim Kelly was physically beaten after age 35 season.  Marino was finished after 37 and diminished before that.   Nowadays they both play another 5 years at a high level and pocket an extra $150M in the process.

 

1).Again, I was responding to your claim that top paid NFL QBs are only outearned by the very finest in the NBA.  That's just not true.    They are outearned by a lot of baseball players as well.  

 

2).  Wentz was an "all star" as well.  Pro Bowl. 

 

3). You're right.  Kelly was 225 lbs.  He only lasted 11 seasons---significantly less than Elway and Marino.  Again, the phenomenon of QBs having long careers is not a new one.  But there's little chance that all those guys if playing these days, would play 20 years or more.   The Mannings didn't.   And having "new breed" mobile QBs as the ones who will likely have careers that long doesn't make much sense.  The guys with the highest longevity are essentially pocket passers.  There's no chance Kyler Murray, Tua will be paying til they are 40.  Odds are against Josh as well.    It's just not that common and it won't be more so going forward.

 

As for 2010---again, no rule changes have prevented lots of QBs from getting injuries that knock them out for the season.  I've given examples (plus Prescott this season) and compared that to missed games by the HOFers in that '83 draft.  QB's are getting wrecked out there.  

[BADOLBILZ]

31 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

1).Again, I was responding to your claim that top paid NFL QBs are only outearned by the very finest in the NBA.  That's just not true.    They are outearned by a lot of baseball players as well.  

 

2).  Wentz was an "all star" as well.  Pro Bowl. 

 

3). You're right.  Kelly was 225 lbs.  He only lasted 11 seasons---significantly less than Elway and Marino.  Again, the phenomenon of QBs having long careers is not a new one.  But there's little chance that all those guys if playing these days, would play 20 years or more.   The Mannings didn't.   And having "new breed" mobile QBs as the ones who will likely have careers that long doesn't make much sense.  The guys with the highest longevity are essentially pocket passers.  There's no chance Kyler Murray, Tua will be paying til they are 40.  Odds are against Josh as well.    It's just not that common and it won't be more so going forward.

 

As for 2010---again, no rule changes have prevented lots of QBs from getting injuries that knock them out for the season.  I've given examples (plus Prescott this season) and compared that to missed games by the HOFers in that '83 draft.  QB's are getting wrecked out there.  

 

 

1) Like I said there are 300 MLB starting positions.......any one of them COULD earn $30M per year if they are great enough........only 14 do.     That's a less than 5% chance.    10 of 30 NFL starting QB's earn over $30M.  Do the math.  If your hangup is that I didn't say that only NBA all-stars have a better chance of earning $30M per year then that's minutia and any QB who was capable of being an NBA all-star would almost certainly bypass football........there just hasn't been one who could.   The economics have changed for QB's though.....as I said in the post above........former Heisman trophy winning QB Charlie Ward earned more in the NBA as a reserve point guard averaging 6 points and 4 assists in 12 years than Jim Kelly did as a HOF QB in 11.   That's not the way the economics work any longer and QB's just don't take the punishment that Jim Kelly did either.  I'm not saying that QB's didn't have long careers before.....the lack of quality in the league often lead to QB's having the opportunity to play even far past the point where they were good.   But QB's now have potential to play longer and earn more now than ever.   That's attractive to families deciding where to direct their talented son's skills.

 

2) Exactly my point.  There are comps.

 

3) The QB of the class of 83' who lasted the longest was the scrambling QB John Elway.  Russell Wilson is a scrambling QB who will eventually be the most sacked QB in NFL history........he is healthy at age 32 and plans to play until age 45 and I don't doubt him.    Being more athletic doesn't make you less likely to have a long career at QB.     

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) Like I said there are 300 MLB starting positions.......any one of them COULD earn $30M per year if they are great enough........only 14 do.     That's a less than 5% chance.    10 of 30 NFL starting QB's earn over $30M.  Do the math.  If your hangup is that I didn't say that only NBA all-stars have a better chance of earning $30M per year then that's minutia and any QB who was capable of being an NBA all-star would almost certainly bypass football........there just hasn't been one who could.   The economics have changed for QB's though.....as I said in the post above........former Heisman trophy winning QB Charlie Ward earned more in the NBA as a reserve point guard averaging 6 points and 4 assists in 12 years than Jim Kelly did as a HOF QB in 11.   That's not the way the economics work any longer and QB's just don't take the punishment that Jim Kelly did either.  I'm not saying that QB's didn't have long careers before.....the lack of quality in the league often lead to QB's having the opportunity to play even far past the point where they were good.   But QB's now have potential to play longer and earn more now than ever.   That's attractive to families deciding where to direct their talented son's skills.

 

2) Exactly my point.  There are comps.

 

3) The QB of the class of 83' who lasted the longest was the scrambling QB John Elway.  Russell Wilson is a scrambling QB who will eventually be the most sacked QB in NFL history........he is healthy at age 32 and plans to play until age 45 and I don't doubt him.    Being more athletic doesn't make you less likely to have a long career at QB.     

I did the math.  See above.  You keep changing your argument—now it’s “who has a better chance of making $30”.  Ok..

 

Again,  Marino played 1 season longer than Elway.  “Scrambling Elway” ran for more than 300 yards a season just one time.  Marino was a statue and he went 17 years.  Kelly couldn’t hold up as well in the same era.   He would never have made it to 20 years in any era.  That’s never going to be a standard in the NFL.  A HOF talent would be the most likely candidate in any era.  There is nothing about the position (or rules/penalties) that will change that.  
 

Your claim that the future most hit QB in league history will also be the first ever to play until age 45 makes no sense.  

 

 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) Like I said there are 300 MLB starting positions.......any one of them COULD earn $30M per year if they are great enough........only 14 do.     That's a less than 5% chance.    10 of 30 NFL starting QB's earn over $30M.  Do the math.  If your hangup is that I didn't say that only NBA all-stars have a better chance of earning $30M per year then that's minutia and any QB who was capable of being an NBA all-star would almost certainly bypass football........there just hasn't been one who could.   The economics have changed for QB's though.....as I said in the post above........former Heisman trophy winning QB Charlie Ward earned more in the NBA as a reserve point guard averaging 6 points and 4 assists in 12 years than Jim Kelly did as a HOF QB in 11.   That's not the way the economics work any longer and QB's just don't take the punishment that Jim Kelly did either.  I'm not saying that QB's didn't have long careers before.....the lack of quality in the league often lead to QB's having the opportunity to play even far past the point where they were good.   But QB's now have potential to play longer and earn more now than ever.   That's attractive to families deciding where to direct their talented son's skills.

 

2) Exactly my point.  There are comps.

 

3) The QB of the class of 83' who lasted the longest was the scrambling QB John Elway.  Russell Wilson is a scrambling QB who will eventually be the most sacked QB in NFL history........he is healthy at age 32 and plans to play until age 45 and I don't doubt him.    Being more athletic doesn't make you less likely to have a long career at QB.     

There are 8 players in the NFL with AAV of $30M.  There are 13 in the MLB.

Edited December 13, 2020 by FireChans