Chef Jim Posted June 28, 2020 Posted June 28, 2020 4 hours ago, RochesterRob said: Easy for people such as ourselves to see but I would imagine quite a few people even now do not see the ramifications of unrealized tax revenue. I don't think districts are allowed to borrow money for non-capital projects. Even before Corona the City of Rochester SD was facing a seven figure deficit with the only real option of cutting staff to make up for the short fall. I would imagine many districts if they are not facing issues will face them. How much staff do they have to cut for a 7 figure deficit? Five? ? And how much of that is pension obligations?
RochesterRob Posted June 28, 2020 Posted June 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: How much staff do they have to cut for a 7 figure deficit? Five? ? And how much of that is pension obligations? OK, as of the last week they were dealing with an 87 million dollar gap (the figure has varied the last few months so we should say an EIGHT figure deficit) and were eliminating 300 teaching positions and closing 5 buildings. I don't live in that district so I don't follow to the day in terms of what is taking place there. My apologies.
Reality Check Posted June 29, 2020 Posted June 29, 2020 (edited) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/mass-tracking-covi-pass-immunity-passports-be-rolled-out-15-countries More progress on the horizon. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/major-mexican-cartels-drug-wars-and-business At least the cartels have kept working. Edited June 29, 2020 by Reality Check
Reality Check Posted June 29, 2020 Posted June 29, 2020 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8468523/American-Academy-Pediatrics-says-schools-reopen-goal-students-present.html It looks like someone wants to kill our kids.
Magox Posted June 29, 2020 Author Posted June 29, 2020 Pending home sales breaks records Quote WASHINGTON (June 29, 2020) – Pending home sales mounted a record comeback in May, seeing encouraging contract activity after two previous months of declines brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Every major region recorded an increase in month-over-month pending home sales transactions, while the South also experienced a year-over-year increase in pending transactions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI),* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 44.3% to 99.6 in May, chronicling the highest month-over-month gain in the index since NAR started this series in January 2001. Year-over-year, contract signings fell 5.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. “This has been a spectacular recovery for contract signings, and goes to show the resiliency of American consumers and their evergreen desire for homeownership,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “This bounce back also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery.” 1 1 1
RochesterRob Posted June 29, 2020 Posted June 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Magox said: Pending home sales breaks records Not sure how excited I should be over this. Making a move to buy a home is more than a 1 or 2 month period in terms of planning and execution. Not saying that an industry association can't toot its own horn but the data does not suggest a broad recovery in my mind. The data needs to be broken down to give a clear picture of what is going on by region and income category. I'd rather look at measures such as vehicle leasing and purchasing, account activity by businesses to those that provide goods or services to them, etc..
Magox Posted June 29, 2020 Author Posted June 29, 2020 Just now, RochesterRob said: Not sure how excited I should be over this. Making a move to buy a home is more than a 1 or 2 month period in terms of planning and execution. Not saying that an industry association can't toot its own horn but the data does not suggest a broad recovery in my mind. The data needs to be broken down to give a clear picture of what is going on by region and income category. I'd rather look at measures such as vehicle leasing and purchasing, account activity by businesses to those that provide goods or services to them, etc.. I rarely look at one indicator to conclude a view. It's just a data point a positive one at that to support that there are green shoots. With that said, and we've discussed it before there are cross currents at play. This just happens to be a potential positive indicator.
RochesterRob Posted June 29, 2020 Posted June 29, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Magox said: I rarely look at one indicator to conclude a view. It's just a data point a positive one at that to support that there are green shoots. With that said, and we've discussed it before there are cross currents at play. This just happens to be a potential positive indicator. I can appreciate what you are saying. I just find realtors's associations as being particularly obnoxious. Edited June 29, 2020 by RochesterRob 1
GG Posted June 29, 2020 Posted June 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, Magox said: I rarely look at one indicator to conclude a view. It's just a data point a positive one at that to support that there are green shoots. With that said, and we've discussed it before there are cross currents at play. This just happens to be a potential positive indicator. I'm not onboard just yet. To me it's swayed by people running from big cities. 1
Buffalo_Gal Posted June 29, 2020 Posted June 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, GG said: I'm not onboard just yet. To me it's swayed by people running from big cities. My son said all his friends are in flee-mode. Early 30s, few are married, only one has kids. If those people are moving out to the ‘burbs, I’d guess a lot of people who do have small children are making the dash.
Magox Posted June 30, 2020 Author Posted June 30, 2020 The question is will it continue with some of the economic pauses and pullbacks? But it goes to show you on just about every economic indicator that the rebound so far has been vastly over performing expectations 1
plenzmd1 Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 17 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said: My son said all his friends are in flee-mode. Early 30s, few are married, only one has kids. If those people are moving out to the ‘burbs, I’d guess a lot of people who do have small children are making the dash. Hmm, certainly not seeing that in Richmond Va or the District as of yet, at least in terms of supply and pricing in the cities. One person in our building in DC just sold above asking in less than 4 days..all done virtually. We are about 1 mile from White House. In Richmond, we were hoping to make the switch from burbs to the Fan district, which contains Monument Ave..where the protests are all going on..nothing for sale. Conversely, nothing is selling in our burb neighborhood right now...and pricing dropping. Anecdotal for sure, and not Manhattan or Brooklyn if that is where your son lives...but sure wish it would happen here!!!!!
RochesterRob Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Magox said: The question is will it continue with some of the economic pauses and pullbacks? But it goes to show you on just about every economic indicator that the rebound so far has been vastly over performing expectations I don't see how that there can not be ebbs and flows in this. Plus the view on the economy is peripheral. If you see nothing but good then your opinion will be optimistic. As pointed out by my college stats prof many years ago surveys and polls can be skewed. What I see in my view in WNY is restaurants that are now up for sale and closed complexes such as casinos and indoor malls that employ thousands of people. Small auto lots that had very little income for a couple of months are now getting uncomfortable calls from creditors who are no longer interested in "we are all in this together" euphoria. Their bills are now getting uncomfortably behind so now they have to shake the tree even though there may not be enough money on it to catch up.
Magox Posted June 30, 2020 Author Posted June 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: I don't see how that there can not be ebbs and flows in this. Plus the view on the economy is peripheral. If you see nothing but good then your opinion will be optimistic. As pointed out by my college stats prof many years ago surveys and polls can be skewed. What I see in my view in WNY is restaurants that are now up for sale and closed complexes such as casinos and indoor malls that employ thousands of people. Small auto lots that had very little income for a couple of months are now getting uncomfortable calls from creditors who are no longer interested in "we are all in this together" euphoria. Their bills are now getting uncomfortably behind so now they have to shake the tree even though there may not be enough money on it to catch up. The economic data that is coming out is very encouraging. But as you and I have discussed a few times before, I do see lots of layoffs continuing to happen as good economic news comes in as well. At some point the economic data will stop over performing expectations. Crosscurrents is the theme that I'm sticking with.
RochesterRob Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Magox said: The economic data that is coming out is very encouraging. But as you and I have discussed a few times before, I do see lots of layoffs continuing to happen as good economic news comes in as well. At some point the economic data will stop over performing expectations. Crosscurrents is the theme that I'm sticking with. The layoffs are real cold buckets of water that will push attention away from websites and associations that have an agenda. The expected layoffs in government if they have started are not in full swing at this point. Can't have layoffs indefinitely and not affect the economy of an area. I just don't see the economy of WNY as being real rosy at this point in time which is the primary worry for me or anybody I know. 1
shoshin Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 17 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said: My son said all his friends are in flee-mode. Early 30s, few are married, only one has kids. If those people are moving out to the ‘burbs, I’d guess a lot of people who do have small children are making the dash. I have heard this trend and am hopeful: We are about sell our 'burb house and move into the city in the next 6 months. Happy to swap out properties at a lower price.
3rdnlng Posted June 30, 2020 Posted June 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Magox said: The economic data that is coming out is very encouraging. But as you and I have discussed a few times before, I do see lots of layoffs continuing to happen as good economic news comes in as well. At some point the economic data will stop over performing expectations. Crosscurrents is the theme that I'm sticking with. Go into a Walmart or a Dick's Sporting Goods store and look at the shelves. Walmart basically has no TVs for sale or bicycles or fishing equipment. I wanted to outfit my two GS with bass fishing equipment and the shelves were pretty bare at both places. All I could do is scrape together a couple "starter kits". I noticed that Walmart had an abundance of fans and they were made here in the USA. Looks to me like there is a great opportunity for domestic manufacturers to maybe at least partially fill the gap. 1
Reality Check Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/book-your-dome-yoga-bubbles-social-distancing-world Yoga classes will never be the same.
B-Man Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 Two Americas: Risk-Tolerant vs Zero-Risk — Will One Ruin the Other? There really are two Americas: The Risk-Tolerant America, and Zero-Risk America. Before we get to that, however, I’m afraid I have some very good news for you: Americans are catching the Wuhan virus at record rates. Now, if you’re a card-carrying member of Zero-Risk America, your panties just spontaneously wadded. Those of us who live in Risk Tolerant America — and if you’re a regular VodkaPundit or PJMedia reader, I’m guessing that includes you — understand that this is very good news indeed. Still, some details would be helpful in order to explain our Two Americas. Read the whole thing 1
Magox Posted July 1, 2020 Author Posted July 1, 2020 Quote More than half of U.S. manufacturers reported better-than-expected expansion in June, the first time that has happened since the coronavirus pandemic locked down the domestic economy. The Institute for Supply Manufacturing survey showed that 52.6% of companies said their businesses are growing. That’s up from May’s 43.1% and a 41.5% trough in April that came a month after shelter-in-place orders took much of the nation’s productive capacity offline. productive capacity offline. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 49.5% reading. “As predicted, the growth cycle has returned after three straight months of COVID-19 disruptions,” said Timothy R. Fiore, ISM chair. “Demand, consumption and inputs are reaching parity and are positioned for a demand-driven expansion cycle as we enter the second half of the year.” Better than expected Manufacturing report. 2
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