D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 (edited) Last week, I introduced a poll to establish where Josh Allen's performance ranked him among the NFLs current starting QBs. Further, the ELO QB rating system was introduced to many as the basis used for these ratings.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo.Why do this? because all too often we make flip comments, " he's easily one of the worst QBs in the league because..." blah, blah, blah etc. My contribution was to place the QBs in Tiers or clusters if you will of similar ratings. The purpose of doing this was to avoid having to rank 32 guys individually against each other (really hard). It helps to be able to say " yeah he closely fits in objectively with this group". I also included an easier to read chart and this weeks updates. 2BD fans who participated placed him the # 16-22 tier edging out #12-15 slightly. Overall, about 85% would place him between 12 and 22. Pretty fair. Now ELO isn't perfect, but it does improve upon regular passer rating systems because it includes, running, avoiding sacks, strength of opponent faced, past performance, weighting more recent games higher than older games, and it properly weights the passing categories. Also, the adjustments made week to week to ELO are not outrageous and in some cases pretty minimal. Without further delay...... NOTEs: I included both Matt Stafford and Jeff Driskel this week because it's unclear if MS will play again in 2019. I also left Mason Rudolph in for PITT Key: LW-Last week, CUR- current QB Tm LWR LW-ELO CWR CUR-ELO Mahomes KC 1 257 1 257 Jackson BAL 2 251 2 251 Prescott DAL 3 251 3 242 Brees NO 7 214 4 224 Cousins MIN 6 216 5 216 Watson HOU 9 209 6 209 Wilson SEA 4 230 7 203 Rodgers GB 8 210 8 195 Stafford DET 11 193 9 193 Ryan ATL 5 218 10 187 J.Allen BUF 14 177 11 182 Brady NE 10 196 12 180 Murray AZ 13 178 13 178 Foles TB 15 170 14 170 Tannehill TEN 21 138 15 168 Carr OAK 12 182 16 166 Wentz PHI 16 170 17 166 Garappolo SF 17 156 18 159 Mayfield CLE 18 146 19 159 Winston TB 23 131 20 143 Goff LAR 20 140 21 140 Brissett IND 19 141 22 137 Rivers LAC 22 136 23 136 D.Jones NYG 24 126 24 135 Darnold NYJ 27 106 25 131 Fitzpatrick TB 25 123 26 122 Trubisky CHI 26 110 27 112 Haskins WAS 28 88 28 80 Driskel DET 29 71 Rudolph PIT 29 81 30 60 K.Allen CAR 31 37 31 54 Finley CIN 30 47 32 48 B.Allen DEN 32 35 33 21 Edited November 25, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfan1972 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Love 538..... Excited about Josh & the Real Test will be vs. Dallas, which will score points & in desperation mode. Admit saying Real Test is unfair as he's passed everyone to date (except the 300 yard one), but still need to see the Bills offense be able to score when needed in a high scoring game. Can't see Dallas scoring less then 24 Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsDude Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Seems accurate to me. Allen better than Brady now. Hope Boy wonder retires. He is slipping. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 The next few games will offer Josh a chance to hit the Top 10 ( I'm hoping). It just feels different right now in spite of not throwing for 300 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 On some other QBs: Russell Wilson really surprised me. I saw the drop in his rating and then looked at his stats from yesterday. 13/25, 6 sacks, 15 yards rushing an interception, 16 QBR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigK14094 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Brady showing a little age.....not sure betting against him is smart yet, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 21 minutes ago, bigK14094 said: Brady showing a little age.....not sure betting against him is smart yet, however. Antonio Brown coming soon? Again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfan1972 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said: The next few games will offer Josh a chance to hit the Top 10 ( I'm hoping). It just feels different right now in spite of not throwing for 300 yards. I still think it is the conservatism in the offensive structure. They had a great game running & Defense was very good. I still am not convinced they can score enough points (unless they play Miami?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedingreennc Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 9 hours ago, BillsDude said: Seems accurate to me. Allen better than Brady now. Hope Boy wonder retires. He is slipping. And yet the Pats are 10-1, i would take Brady's play and have that record over the other stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 9 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said: On some other QBs: Russell Wilson really surprised me. I saw the drop in his rating and then looked at his stats from yesterday. 13/25, 6 sacks, 15 yards rushing an interception, 16 QBR. If I had first pick of a QB, I 'd pick Wilson and I wouldn't even have to think about it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Did OP start a new thread to update and discuss his other thread on this topic. pretty sweet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 9 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said: Love 538..... Excited about Josh & the Real Test will be vs. Dallas, which will score points & in desperation mode. Admit saying Real Test is unfair as he's passed everyone to date (except the 300 yard one), but still need to see the Bills offense be able to score when needed in a high scoring game. Can't see Dallas scoring less then 24 Thursday. On this defense? Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 27 minutes ago, Pokebball said: If I had first pick of a QB, I 'd pick Wilson and I wouldn't even have to think about it. You know I can't disagree with this. He may be the MVP right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 34 minutes ago, Pokebball said: If I had first pick of a QB, I 'd pick Wilson and I wouldn't even have to think about it. could have had him for a 3rd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfan1972 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 12 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said: On this defense? Good luck. They will..... I know the Bills demolished Denver, but last two on the road were not great defensive performances. Dallas will be loaded for bear (or Bill) though may too rollover on Garrett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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