Henry v. Shelton

[Peter]

It seems to me that the guy that went to the Pro Bowl would have more value?

 

Thanks AZ for being so gracious and dropping the demand for extra compensation.

 

Sarcasm off.

[/dev/null]

depends on what type of 'value'

 

from a player perspective, TH clearly has more 'value'. Pro Bowl 1400 yard RB vs an average starting LT

 

from a trade perspective, THs value goes down dramatically as he is not the Cardinals only, or even best option at RB. There are a couple decent backs available in the draft and AZ is in a position to draft one. Edgerin James and Shaun Alexandar, both better RBs than TH, are also both on the trading block.

 

Given that the Bills biggest need atm is on the line, and the OLine trading block is virtually empty, that greatly increases Shelton's trade value

[Albany,n.y.]

The main problem with trading for Henry is you only have him under contract for 1 year, but...he's a cheap $1.25 million in salary and cap for 2005 if you trade for him. So, if you need a RB & are thinking about seeing how Travis fits in with your team at very little risk, then Travis is worth trading for. If you want to have a RB locked up for the next few seasons-don't trade for Travis.

 

Shelton has value as well, since he plays a position where a guy of his talents is usually overpaid. Since Arizona gave him big upfront money & he has a few years left on his contract, you get him at a reduced price. In addition, he is low risk because he counts $3 million in salary & cap for 2005 & with his present contract, if he doesn't work out in 2005, you cut him with no cap ramifications in future seasons. Also, by trading for him instead of waiting for him to be released, you have him locked in, rather than getting into a bidding war where you'll have to pay him at least $3 million this year & could get hit with cap hits in future years if he doesn't work out.

 

Both players are on 1 year trials with their new team, but I'd rather have the player who, if he works out in your system, you don't have to worry about losing in 1 year.

 

Because of the contracts involved, I believe Shelton has more value than Henry. Both lost their jobs and neither team really wants them back in 2005. The trade helps both teams stay within cap constraints & fill a void in the lineup.

 

If TD can get the switch of #2s thrown in, he's doing very good. He can then pick the top TE or CB left on the board in the 2nd round. Odds of finding a good one increases when moving up to Arizona's spot.

[IDBillzFan]

Value is relative. Henry has more value to Arizona than he does to us. Shelton has more value to us than he does to Arizona.

[Alaska Darin]

The main problem with trading for Henry is you only have him under contract for 1 year, but...he's a cheap $1.25 million in salary and cap for 2005 if you trade for him.  So, if you need a RB & are thinking about seeing how Travis fits in with your team at very little risk, then Travis is worth trading for.  If you want to have a RB locked up for the next few seasons-don't trade for Travis. 

 

Shelton has value as well, since he plays a position where a guy of his talents is usually overpaid.  Since Arizona gave him big upfront money & he has a few years left on his contract, you get him at a reduced price. In addition, he is low risk because he counts $3 million in salary & cap for 2005 & with his present contract, if he doesn't work out in 2005, you cut him with no cap ramifications in future seasons.  Also, by trading for him instead of waiting for him to be released, you have him locked in, rather than getting into a bidding war where you'll have to pay him at least $3 million this year & could get hit with cap hits in future years if he doesn't work out.

 

Both players are on 1 year trials with their new team, but I'd rather have the player who, if he works out in your system, you don't have to worry about losing in 1 year. 

 

Because of the contracts involved, I believe Shelton has more value than Henry.  Both lost their jobs and neither team really wants them back in 2005.  The trade helps both teams stay within cap constraints & fill a void in the lineup. 

 

If TD can get the switch of #2s thrown in, he's doing very good.  He can then pick the top TE or CB left on the board in the 2nd round.  Odds of finding a good one increases when moving up to Arizona's spot.

296810[/snapback]

Good post.

[ATBNG]

The fact that Henry made the Pro-Bowl has nothing to do with his value in a trade in the here and now. The Pro-Bowl is essentially a sham.

 

Look at what the Bills did with 2003 Pro-Bowler Reuben Brown.

 

Arizona, and the other 30 NFL teams, are basing their assessment of Henry on what they see on film, his versatility on the field and what they know about his character and work ethic. They'll then decide what he is worth in a trade based on what they'll have to pay him next year.

 

Fifth, conditional fourth.

[Mark VI]

Good post.

296816[/snapback]

 

Except those round 2 ideas. Come on Harv, OL baby ! Baas or Spencer.

[Alaska Darin]

Except those round 2 ideas.    Come on Harv, OL baby !  Baas or Spencer. 

296822[/snapback]

Best player available. BPA, BABY!

[MadBuffaloDisease]

Fifth, conditional fourth.

What "conditions" make Henry worth just a 4th rounder? Say he rushes for 1400 yards and scores 12 TD's (which were close to his averages in 2002 and 2003, and would be conservative estimates assuming he stays reasonably healthy and since he'd be playing in the weak NFC West), would you say that he was worth just a 4th rounder? I wouldn't, and if a conditional pick WERE part of the trade (without Shelton), I'd tell Green to take his chances on a rookie OR spend a ton on a guy like Alexander or James.

[1billsfan]

What "conditions" make Henry worth just a 4th rounder?  Say he rushes for 1400 yards and scores 12 TD's (which were close to his averages in 2002 and 2003, and would be conservative estimates assuming he stays reasonably healthy and since he'd be playing in the weak NFC West), would you say that he was worth just a 4th rounder?  I wouldn't, and if a conditional pick WERE part of the trade (without Shelton), I'd tell Green to take his chances on a rookie OR spend a ton on a guy like Alexander or James.

296830[/snapback]

 

Wow, some good ol' fashion reasonable posting. Thank you.

[Albany,n.y.]

Except those round 2 ideas.     Come on Harv, OL baby !  Baas or Spencer. 

296822[/snapback]

 

If we get Shelton then the OL does not become immediate need & we still have Tucker to backup G/C. Gandy for backup G/T and McFarland/Bannan/Sobieski/Peters/Smith as backup depth. Only Teague & Bannan would be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. We would have added 3 linemen in the offseason prior to the draft.

 

Meanwhile, both our starting CBs are in the final year of their contracts, Nate's unrestricted. We have to have a plan if one (or both with good compensation for McGee) leaves. CB has to be our biggest need going into the draft unless Nate is signed to an extension.

 

Additionally, both starting caliber TEs are coming off knee surgery. TD said after the season that due to this TE would be addressed in offseason.

 

If we move up it's for CB or TE, not OL. Also any dreams of Nugent are gone.

[Albany,n.y.]

Good post.

296816[/snapback]

Thanks, it looks like you like my football posts better than political ones

[ATBNG]

What "conditions" make Henry worth just a 4th rounder?  Say he rushes for 1400 yards and scores 12 TD's (which were close to his averages in 2002 and 2003, and would be conservative estimates assuming he stays reasonably healthy and since he'd be playing in the weak NFC West), would you say that he was worth just a 4th rounder?  I wouldn't, and if a conditional pick WERE part of the trade (without Shelton), I'd tell Green to take his chances on a rookie OR spend a ton on a guy like Alexander or James.

296830[/snapback]

 

He's not going to run for 1400 yards and score 12 TD's. I'm highly doubtful he's going to win a job in camp myself. Henry is not a good player. Too many negatives in his overall game.

 

There's absolutely no reason to think he's going to repeat his 2002 and 2003 numbers, especially since he's probably not going to play on third downs unless by some miracle a light goes on that has never gone on before. He didn't help Buffalo in those years when he played on third down, but he did probably help his numbers.

 

Do keep in mind that those years were achieved in losing campaigns. Teams want to acquire players in the NFL so they can win games, not gain yards. They look at FILM. They could give a crap about yards gained three years ago. Save those arguments for your fantasy football trades MBD - that's where they're relevant.

 

If I were making the deal, I'd propose somewhat gentle requirements on the conditional 4th - one of 750 yards rushing, 1000 yards total, 50% of the snaps, < 3% turnover/touch ratio with some minimum number of touches....something like that.

[Mark VI]

If we get Shelton then the OL does not become immediate need & we still have Tucker to backup G/C.  Gandy for backup G/T and McFarland/Bannan/Sobieski/Peters/Smith as backup depth.  Only Teague & Bannan would be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season.  We would have added 3 linemen in the offseason prior to the draft. 

 

Meanwhile, both our starting CBs are in the final year of their contracts, Nate's unrestricted.  We have to have a plan if one (or both with good compensation for McGee) leaves.  CB has to be our biggest need going into the draft unless Nate is signed to an extension. 

 

Additionally, both starting caliber TEs are coming off knee surgery.  TD said after the season that due to this TE would be addressed in offseason. 

 

If we move up it's for CB or TE, not OL.  Also any dreams of Nugent are gone.

296847[/snapback]

 

Do you think Smith, Sobieski or Bannan make the final roster ? McFarland may only get one more year but how many journeyman without any real starting ability do we need ? Gandy may be the Marcus Price replacement. Baas or Spencer could be starting next year, at the latest. I like Tucker but can he be a frontline starter or just a good versitile backup at C/G ?

 

I do agree with the CB idea and have mentioned that in other threads. I'm not sure they'd take another stab at TE, at least not this year. Campbell sounds like he'll be ready, from a recent report.

[Albany,n.y.]

I think Bannan makes it due to ironman capabilities, Smith maybe, Sobieski has to be healthy & improved. Until I hear Euhus is advancing as well as Campbell, I only see 1 NFL TE on the roster.

 

OL will be easy to address next year when we have a 1st round pick.

 

Gotta get ready for Idol @ 8, like Seacrest says-Out.

It looks like Scott the abuser's last stand.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

He's not going to run for 1400 yards and score 12 TD's.  I'm highly doubtful he's going to win a job in camp myself. Henry is not a good player. Too many negatives in his overall game.

Henry did it 2 years in a row with the Bills, in the (at the time) tough AFC East, and there's NO ONE on the Cardinals' roster who is even close to Henry in terms of talent. That and his low pricetag are why Green is still interested in him after all this time, despite Alexander and James being available for just 2nd rounders. There's little doubt in my mind that, if he stays healthy, he'll start the whole season and rack up AT LEAST that many yards and TD's. Again it's the NFC West we're talking about here. The Cardinals were still in the running to WIN the division until the last week of the year, and they were never above .500!

There's absolutely no reason to think he's going to repeat his 2002 and 2003 numbers, especially since he's probably not going to play on third downs unless by some miracle a light goes on that has never gone on before. He didn't help Buffalo in those years when he played on third down, but he did probably help his numbers.

How many yards did he gain on 3rd downs with the Bills? And there is EVERY reason to believe he can duplicate, if not surpass those numbers, again assuming he's healthy, which is where the "conditional" part comes into play.

Do keep in mind that those years were achieved in losing campaigns. Teams want to acquire players in the NFL so they can win games, not gain yards. They look at FILM. They could give a crap about yards gained three years ago. Save those arguments for your fantasy football trades MBD - that's where they're relevant.

So the Bills LOST games because of Travis in 2002 and 2003? You don't think that the horrible defense in 2002, or the lack of any offensive threat for most of 2003 had anything to do with the Bills losing? Again it's the NFC West, and the Cards will have Kurt Warner throwing to Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Bryant Johnson, which is a pretty damn good passing game potentially.

If I were making the deal, I'd propose somewhat gentle requirements on the conditional 4th - one of 750 yards rushing, 1000 yards total, 50% of the snaps, < 3% turnover/touch ratio with some minimum number of touches....something like that.

Don't apply for that GM job just yet ATBNG. TD wouldn't stop at those paltry numbers, and if Green balks at compensation at a 2nd or 1st rounder should Henry reach 1400+ yards, screw him and as I said, let him take a chance with a rookie.

[TigerJ]

Value is relative. Henry has more value to Arizona than he does to us. Shelton has more value to us than he does to Arizona.

296813[/snapback]

 

 

I was going to say something very similar.

 

There are a bunch of factors to determining value, but if we discount team needs, contract length, potential career length in the NFL, and current compensation, it comes down to the fact that Shelton has a bit better pedigree, having been a first round draft choice, while Henry has had better production for at least a couple years of his career. Shelton would probably not be rated a top 15 left tackle in the league, but for 2 seasons, Henry easily had top 15 running back numbers. Either those who drafted Shelton in the first place were wrong, and he's not that good, or he has some untapped potential. I have a feeling that Henry has probably passed the midpoint of his NFL career based on his recent propensity for injury. He doesn't have heavy duty size but Henry has a heavy duty style of play. I think that has begun to wear on his body. Shelton, on the other hand if he learns how to be more productive at LT could possibly play another 6-7 years or even longer. I think on average offensive linemen play longer than running backs.

[ATBNG]

Value is relative. Henry has more value to Arizona than he does to us. Shelton has more value to us than he does to Arizona.

296813[/snapback]

 

If this were true, the trade would be done.

[Kelly the Dog]

If this were true, the trade would be done.

297053[/snapback]

No, because TD may still think that he could get the extra two out of the Cards and is waiting to see if Green blinks. He knows he can get the straight up and thinks he can get the extra two. Green may or may not blink and give in at the last second because TD is lying to him and telling him we're keeping Travis unless we get the extra two, whether that is true or not.

 

There is very little if anything that has come out recently that makes me think that isn't what is going on. Green is hoping TD blinks and says okay to the straight up before he blinks and says okay, we'll do the extra two. That is why TD continues to say we'll keep Travis and we're not giving him up without fair value, which we think is more than Shelton (again, whether he really believes that or not isn't known and doesn't matter, he is just playing poker).

 

What TD furthermore has going for him is being known to just walk away from deals. The Cards may well be thinking he is going to go for the straght up, but that fukker, he may just walk away, he's a stubborn bastard and we can't trust him.

[Pete]

No, because TD may still think that he could get the extra two out of the Cards and is waiting to see if Green blinks. He knows he can get the straight up and thinks he can get the extra two. Green may or may not blink and give in at the last second because TD is lying to him and telling him we're keeping Travis unless we get the extra two, whether that is true or not.

 

There is very little if anything that has come out recently that makes me think that isn't what is going on. Green is hoping TD blinks and says okay to the straight up before he blinks and says okay, we'll do the extra two. That is why TD continues to say we'll keep Travis and we're not giving him up without fair value, which we think is more than Shelton (again, whether he really believes that or not isn't known and doesn't matter, he is just playing poker).

 

What TD furthermore has going for him is being known to just walk away from deals. The Cards may well be thinking he is going to go for the straght up, but that fukker, he may just walk away, he's a stubborn bastard and we can't trust him.

297056[/snapback]

 

Maybe Green comprimises and trades 3rd round picks thus saving a little face. I would do that deal.

 

 

PS Albany NY- I also much prefer your football posts to your political ones