Non-draft draft idea

[BillsSB2020]

You can't possibly dismiss an entire draft. It makes no sense.

 

As much faith as I have in McBeane, they're entering win now mode.

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

If we trade with a bad team we will get a high pick from them.  That is sort of the point.  Would you rather have Arizona's 2020 1 or a WR who can't move laterally any better than the 3:11 Amtrak?

 

Am I sure this will happen?  Of course not.  It is probably low odds to completely come true but I think trading our 1 for Arizona or Cincy's 2020 1 could happen.  In later rounds there could be different partners.  The odds of it all happening are the same as the odds of someone doing a 7 round mock draft and nailing it, but still not less than 0%. Where did you get that math?

That's why I think we have to entice them with perceived draft value chart value.  

 

No disrespect, but there is a big difference in trading away one pick for future picks than trading away our whole draft for future picks like you said in your OP...which that has less than 0% chance of happening.

 

And could they trade this years first for one next year, sure.  Low chance of that happening though there will be some amazing prospects available at 9 this year.  And no way they trade the 9th pick for just someone’s next years 1st round pick.  Teams go from last to much improved in one off season all the time in the NFL, so they could easily pick lower than 9th next year and future picks are already worth less than current picks. 

 

So a one for one swap has 0% chance of happening too.  Someone would have to

offer the Bills not only next years first but more picks on top of that before we would trade away #9.  

 

So while I get your logic, the way you proposed it just isn’t really realistic.  Also, you grossly under estimate the talent in this draft and also seem to base your desire to move on from #9 on your assumption the pick will be Metcalf and the fact you’re not high on Metcalf.  That’s not a reason to abandon this draft.  

[4merper4mer]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but there is a big difference in trading away one pick for future picks than trading away our whole draft for future picks like you said in your OP...which that has less than 0% chance of happening.

 

And could they trade this years first for one next year, sure.  Low chance of that happening though there will be some amazing prospects available at 9 this year.  And no way they trade the 9th pick for just someone’s next years 1st round pick.  Teams go from last to much improved in one off season all the time in the NFL, so they could easily pick lower than 9th next year and future picks are already worth less than current picks. 

 

So a one for one swap has 0% chance of happening too.  Someone would have to

offer the Bills not only next years first but more picks on top of that before we would trade away #9.  

 

So while I get your logic, the way you proposed it just isn’t really realistic.  Also, you grossly under estimate the talent in this draft and also seem to base your desire to move on from #9 on your assumption the pick will be Metcalf and the fact you’re not high on Metcalf.  That’s not a reason to abandon this draft.  

How can something be less than zero?

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

How can something be less than zero?

 

By proposing things that are make believe.  For instance, teen wolf like werewolves taking over the NBA or the female Org**m ?

 

And since you brought up math...in math, -1 is less than zero ??

Edited March 6, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[4merper4mer]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

By proposing things that are make believe.  For instance, teen wolf like werewolves taking over the NBA or the female ***** ?

 

And since you brought up math...in math, -1 is less than zero ??

A percentage chance of something happening can be very close to zero, but it can't be zero and definitely not less.

 

Anyway if you want a few crappy players instead of taking the chance on holding Tua for an absolute King's ransom then that is your prerogative.  It isn't powerball; there is a decent chance Beane could guess the right team.

[Augie]

10 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

How can something be less than zero?

 

I stood out at the bus stop in January and February in the dark morning hours waiting too see if the bus would show up to take me to high school. I know what less tha zero is! Don’t mess with me! My kids say I’m scarred, and I can’t say I disagree! 

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

A percentage chance of something happening can be very close to zero, but it can't be zero and definitely not less.

 

Anyway if you want a few crappy players instead of taking the chance on holding Tua for an absolute King's ransom then that is your prerogative.  It isn't powerball; there is a decent chance Beane could guess the right team.

 

Lol, talk about taking a statement to literally. All good man.    

 

And I am glad you’re not the GM if you think the players we are getting at #9 and in the early rounds of this draft are gonna be crappy.  Pretty sure not a single football mind in the world would agree with your assesment on that. 

 

And “kings ransom” for Tua?  He sure didn’t show that value in the championship game.  Talk about premature.  I heard the same about Jake Locker, Sam Darnold, Brian Brohm, Matt Leinart, Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel, etc all the year before they entered the draft.  Yet none were number one overall pick so many proclaimed they would be.  Tua could have have a big year and be the top pick, but it’s waaaaaay to early to know that.  I mean next years class will have several guys aiming to be graded the top QB including Hebert.  

 

Youre right though, it isn’t powerball...poweball has better odds than what you’ve proposed.  

Edited March 6, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[4merper4mer]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lol, talk about taking a statement to literally. All good man.    

 

And I am glad you’re not the GM if you think the players we are getting at #9 and in the early rounds of this draft are gonna be crappy.  Pretty sure not a single football mind in the world would agree with your assesment on that. 

 

And “kings ransom” for Tua?  He sure didn’t show that value in the championship game.  Talk about premature.  I heard the same about Jake Locker, Sam Darnold, Brian Brohm, Matt Leinaet, Tim Tebow, Johnny Mansfield, etc etc all the year before they entered the draft.  Yet none were number one overall pick so many proclaimed they would be.  Tua could have have a big year and be the top pick, but it’s waaaaaay to early to know that.  I mean next years class will have several guys aiming to be graded the top QB including Hebert.  

 

Youre right though, it isn’t powerball...poweball has better odds than what you’ve proposed.  

Not to say it's perfect but generally speaking our D is in better shape than our O.  Although the draft may have some solid D in it, the consensus top O player is historically bad in areas of his game.  Let that sink in.  He's terribly incomplete but still BPA on O.  This means everyone else is even worse.  Let the other teams have crappy guys.  This is the year do skip and load up.

 

I get what you mean about Tua but then you point out other QBs could be great.  That is counter to your argument.  If we hold the #1 all we need is for someone to be highly desired.  Tua was used as an example, albeit a likely one.

 

And honestly dude you got so many of those QBs names wrong, how can I trust your assessment?

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Not to say it's perfect but generally speaking our D is in better shape than our O.  Although the draft may have some solid D in it, the consensus top O player is historically bad in areas of his game.  Let that sink in.  He's terribly incomplete but still BPA on O.  This means everyone else is even worse.  Let the other teams have crappy guys.  This is the year do skip and load up.

 

I get what you mean about Tua but then you point out other QBs could be great.  That is counter to your argument.  If we hold the #1 all we need is for someone to be highly desired.  Tua was used as an example, albeit a likely one.

 

And honestly dude you got so many of those QBs names wrong, how can I trust your assessment?

 

Lol, it was two auto correct typos while typing on the phone.  I corrected them.

 

Again, where are you getting this historically bad offensive draft from?  And once again, you seem to be forming this opinion based on your dislike of Metcalf and belief he will be chosen #9.  And because you don’t like him, you’re now projecting every offensive player taken after him to be even worse?

 

All good, we will just agree to disagree on the quality of the offensive prospects in this draft.  Funny, while it’s defensive heavy at the top, it’s actually deeper offensively.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

11 hours ago, Augie said:

My kids say I’m scarred, and I can’t say I disagree! 

I don’t know if you are ‘scarred’, but I know I am ‘scared’ when I read suggestions such as the OP had.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good, we will just agree to disagree on the quality of the offensive prospects in this draft.  Funny, while it’s defensive heavy at the top, it’s actually deeper offensively.  

 

I think in terms of depth it plays quite well to the Bills needs - offensive line is pretty deep, receiver is pretty deep, Dline is very deep and on an early look it is a sneaky deep TE class too.

 

I don't like the depth at linebacker... gets thin quite quickly there, or at corner where I think after the top half a dozen or so guys who will all be gone by mid 2nd round the drop is pretty steep until you get to some decent looking "slot only" guys like the BC kid in the 5th round or so. The one position that in an ideal world I'd like the Bills to be looking at in the mid rounds where I think depth is an issue is running back. I am not a fan of this running back class. Think it is weaker than in recent years.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think in terms of depth it plays quite well to the Bills needs - offensive line is pretty deep, receiver is pretty deep, Dline is very deep and on an early look it is a sneaky deep TE class too.

 

I don't like the depth at linebacker... gets thin quite quickly there, or at corner where I think after the top half a dozen or so guys who will all be gone by mid 2nd round the drop is pretty steep until you get to some decent looking "slot only" guys like the BC kid in the 5th round or so. The one position that in an ideal world I'd like the Bills to be looking at in the mid rounds where I think depth is an issue is running back. I am not a fan of this running back class. Think it is weaker than in recent years.

 

Yup, agree with all of this.  The one RB I would really like to nab in the 3rd or 4th is Bryce Love.  Just think he’s going to be a steal there.  Although there are a few other backs I’d be happy with in the same draft range too.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yup, agree with all of this.  The one RB I would really like to nab in the 3rd or 4th is Bryce Love.  Just think he’s going to be a steal there.  Although there are a few other backs I’d be happy with in the same draft range too.

 

It's why I am sticking to my guns a bit with BPA or trade back at #9. And if Ed Oliver falls to us we should just run to the podium and turn in the card. The draft is deep in some of the spots where we need an infusion of young talent and we have free agency to fill gaps. Take the best player that falls to you there. If he is a defender, so what? Don't pass up top end talent to fill gaps.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's why I am sticking to my guns a bit with BPA or trade back at #9. And if Ed Oliver falls to us we should just run to the podium and turn in the card. The draft is deep in some of the spots where we need an infusion of young talent and we have free agency to fill gaps. Take the best player that falls to you there. If he is a defender, so what? Don't pass up top end talent to fill gaps.

 

Yup, we see it the same way.  

[4merper4mer]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lol, it was two auto correct typos while typing on the phone.  I corrected them.

 

Again, where are you getting this historically bad offensive draft from?  And once again, you seem to be forming this opinion based on your dislike of Metcalf and belief he will be chosen #9.  And because you don’t like him, you’re now projecting every offensive player taken after him to be even worse?

 

All good, we will just agree to disagree on the quality of the offensive prospects in this draft.  Funny, while it’s defensive heavy at the top, it’s actually deeper offensively.  

It's not that I don't like Metcalf or that I'm picking on him.  Show me another top of the top pick in some previous draft that had such glaring holes.  With those facts on the table and he is still the top non-QB o player speaks volumes and says punt.  Why wouldn't somebody, or multiple players be ranked higher given the major shortcomings with Metcalf that are typically associated with a 4th rounder?

[4merper4mer]

With our obvious attempt to get AB, and Oakland giving the two pick price I predicted, I'm wondering if the strategy from the top of this thread is in play.  It does show they don't want to go WR high in the draft.

 

The next clues will be if we attempt to trade for another top WR and/or our aggresiveness on day one of FA.

[richardb1952]

If we kept doing this year after year, eventually we will have all the picks in the draft, keep the best 51 and trade the rest for future draft picks.  Let's just hope it's a good talent year.