MMQB: Why the Browns are making a mistake with Baker Mayfield (by starting Tyrod)

[twoandfourteen]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

 

I think my point is pretty clear to everyone except you and Teddy.

 

Tyrod as a QB as a whole is solid when he has good players around him. He certainly isn't the best passer but is he terrible? Absolutely not. His ability to improvise and make plays with his legs and make plays with his arm while NOT TURN THE BALL OVER was a big reason why the Bills were competitive in most games and were able to win 9. 

 

 

What the !@#$ does it matter if he's making plays with his legs as opposed to his arm? 

 

 

I'm glad you asked!

 

Let's say you're a defensive coordinator. 

 

A good game from Tyrod is roughly 220 yds passing & 40 yds rushing, 1 TD passing & 1 TD rushing.

 

So, total production is 260 yards of offense and 2 TDs for Tyrod when he's firing on all cylinders. 

 

You would take that 10 times out of 10 vs a QB that is capable of 300 yds in just passing yards and 3 passing TDs, right? 

 

 

 

Trying to move the ball on the ground is an inefficient way to play offense now. 

 

When people say "Tyrod is so dangerous with his legs", it really doesn't mean anything. His ceiling of just under 300 yards of total offense in a game is really not all that dangerous to anyone other than the Dolphins, when you really look at it. 

 

He can't put up points quickly. He can't bring teams back from being behind at nearly any point in a game. Because running the ball doesn't allow for an offense to do that. 

 

Yes, if the defense can hold the opponent to 10 or 13 points, Taylor can probably manage to put together 20-24 points if everything goes right -- including a turnover or two that puts the Bills already in FG range. 

 

That's why there is a HUGE difference in QBs making plays through the air vs scrambling around. 

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

 

I think my point is pretty clear to everyone except you and Teddy.

 

Tyrod as a QB as a whole is solid when he has good players around him. He certainly isn't the best passer but is he terrible? Absolutely not. His ability to improvise and make plays with his legs and make plays with his arm while NOT TURN THE BALL OVER was a big reason why the Bills were competitive in most games and were able to win 9. 

 

 

What the !@#$ does it matter if he's making plays with his legs as opposed to his arm? 

 

Orrrrr people just don’t bother responding anymore 

[GoBills808]

20 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Trying to move the ball on the ground is an inefficient way to play offense now? What are you blathering about? Are you just pulling **** out of your ass?

 

9 of the top 10 teams in rushing offenses were in the playoffs last season. ?

 

The Bills were tops in the league in PPG under Tyrod in 2015 and 2016.(7th in 2016) And that's with two BAD defense's who never created turnovers. So there goes that argument.

 

 

Again your missing the point. He is an efficient, solid QB when he has good players around him.... AND HE DOESNT TURN THE BALL OVER. Crucial for winning football games. 

 

You probably prefer Fitzpatrick and his 300 yard games to go along with 3 INTs over Tyrod.?

 

Are you really The Big Cat in disguise? 

Orrr you really added nothing to the discussion per usual. You've been on a bad take hot streak bud.??

Running the ball hasn't been as efficient as passing since about 1970. Average YPA in 2017 was 7.0, average YPC was 4.1.

 

Also, 'tops in the league in PPG' is wrong. The Bills were equal 10th in scoring in 2016 and 12th in 2015. 

 

Further: I think it's pretty intellectually dishonest to quantify a successful offense in terms of PPG without extending the same courtesy to the defense...which was 15th in 2015 and equal 16th in 2016. I fail to see how you get 'tops in the league' for an offense ranked (by your metric, PPG) 12th in 2015 and then in the very next sentence call the defense who ranked 15th in the exact same year and in the exact same category 'bad'.

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

7th in 2016 through 15 games with Tyrod as QB. They started EJ the last game of the year which was a tire fire and dropped them to 10th.

 

Considering the Bills defense was near bottom of the league in forcing turnovers both those years and the Bills offense was tops in the league in not turning the ball over that average ranking of the defensive PPG doesn't tell the whole story. 

 

Just pull any game(outside of the Jacoby Brisset gift game from Goddell) of the Bills and tell me that defense isn't terrible. 

Are you going to adjust for the games Manuel played in 2015 that raised the offense's PPG as well? Because if you do, they move down to 15th which equals the 'bad' defense you referred to. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Their defense was slightly below average in combined metrics in 2015. It was BAD in just about all metrics in 2016. 

 

You dont need statistics to see the Bills offense was above average to good in both 2015 and 2016 and their defense was below average to bad. Just throw on a game and watch.

 

 

 

If you define which metrics you're using I might agree. As you've laid it out I don't see how you're coming to your conclusions, other than to portray the offensive in a better light than is deserved and vice versa for the defense.

 

 

[grb]

4 hours ago, The Red King said:

 

Beat me to it.  No matter what, there will be TT threads.  If he bombs in Cleveland, the people claiming he was awful will be jumping all over that, and rubbing it in the face of TT supporters.  If he does well, the TT supporters will be frothing at the mouth to rub it in the face of the TT detractors.

 

He just might do well.  One possibility that nobody really touched on, is that his timidness might have been because of a complete lack of faith in his receivers.  Now, this is not the same thing as having bad receivers.  If he had no faith in his receivers, that might have led to some of the checkdowns and runs.  However, that is still on TT.  Sometimes you just have to take chances.  If this theory is true, then TT was like the overprotective parent that doesn't let their asthmatic child camp, play sports or even play outside, someone so terrified that their child cannot handle something that they take no chances at all.  You can be too cautious.  If this is part of what happened, having a new receiving corp might well fix the problem, TT might start taking chances, and Bills fans will then rip their hair out by the roots, screaming "Why the hell didn't he do that with us?!?".  If that is what happened, and what happens, then the trade was a good thing for both teams as Tyrod will finally be comfortable, and he would never have been that QB for us.  This is just a theory, though.  Not sure if I subscribe to it.

 

At last a point of total agreement : No matter what, there will be TT threads. In this debate, there will be people right, and people wrong. Stay tuned; it'll be fun.

 

 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Seriously? 

 

Go watch the games again and let me know what you see.

You're not doing your argument any favors when your response to a simple question is 'go watch 32 hours of NFL tape'. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Seriously? 

 

Go watch the games again and let me know what you see.

 

 

there will be some games to watch, I say some because he'll likely be benched by mid season but none the less you can watch him as a brown?

 

no real need, I would believe, to keep digging up games from the past from a player that no longer wears a bills uniform.

 

I just find it funny how the few left that keep defending taylor must really have a deep passion for him if they're still defending his  "average"  work on the field.

 

not haha funny, but kind of weird funny.

Edited May 21, 2018 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Bills757]

13 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

More like the same old blind sympathetic posters like yourself that just can't admit that the choice they made at QB was 1000% incorrect. Same old nasty sounding just like that girl on the YouTube video many years back screaming, "leave Britney alone". Haha. 

 

Going to be a wonderful season not seeing the Tyrod threads,  hey hey hey goodbye. 

No worries. They’ll be replaced by “Allen was a horrible #1 pick” or “Beane needs to go” or “McD’s Process...LOL”.  

[GoBills808]

51 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

What exactly is your argument? 

 

The Bills defense was below average to bad in just about all categories throughout the 2015 and 2016 seasons. I don't need statistics to tell me that. Apparently you do. Again, go look it up yourself or go watch some games. 

I responded to you saying the Bills' offenses in 2016 and 2015 were 'top of the league' while the corresponding defenses were 'bad' by giving you some statistics in opposition. Apparently your threshold for 'top of the league' on offense is as forgiving as your definition of 'bad' is broad; in context I would guess this is a narrative motivated to paint the offense in general and Taylor by association in the best possible light.

[twoandfourteen]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Running the ball hasn't been as efficient as passing since about 1970. Average YPA in 2017 was 7.0, average YPC was 4.1.

 

Also, 'tops in the league in PPG' is wrong. The Bills were equal 10th in scoring in 2016 and 12th in 2015. 

 

Further: I think it's pretty intellectually dishonest to quantify a successful offense in terms of PPG without extending the same courtesy to the defense...which was 15th in 2015 and equal 16th in 2016. I fail to see how you get 'tops in the league' for an offense ranked (by your metric, PPG) 12th in 2015 and then in the very next sentence call the defense who ranked 15th in the exact same year and in the exact same category 'bad'.

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I find when people say "overly politically correct" or  "I'm not a racist, but" that almost nothing they say is worthwhile. 

 

That "article" didn't make me change my mind (I'm actually annoyed I went for the bait and clicked on it). 

 

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Hue saying that Tyrod will be the starter. Tyrod can be a perfectly acceptable bridge QB for them to start this year while Baker adjusts to the NFL. It's probably the smart thing to do to bring Baker along slowly. 

 

There's also nothing stopping Hue from changing his mind and starting Baker if he looks amazing in training camp/pre-season. Coaches have been known to say things in May that end up differently in September when the season starts...

[Jaywrizzo]

Really? How about we wait until camp actually starts....I don't understand why we should care anyways....He no longer plays for the Bills... can we just not be happy for that?

Edited May 21, 2018 by Jaywrizzo

[Thurman#1]

On 5/18/2018 at 1:50 AM, grb said:

 

Pretty funny. Watkins plays eight games with a broken left foot - with all the pain that entails -  but our own Thurman#1 is here to insist that wasn't a factor in SW running long routes. We can only assume Thurman#1 would be out at the track running sprints if his foot was broken. No excuses, huh? 

 

I understand it's every fan's right to be cavalier about athletic injuries, but you can take that to ludicrous extremes. 

 

 

What's ludicrous is you assuming that you know all the pain entailed after he'd already been sitting and healing for half the season while I don't. Neither of us does. What both of us should know is that Watkins was effective enough despite whatever pain he had that when the throws were good he was able to get open and make some nice long catches. Look at the beautiful play he made on that long ball in the Jags game, his first game back. Sweet. He was effective but he didn't get a lot of good balls thrown his way.

 

He was good enough that when he got good balls thrown to him he had a 154 yard game against the Dolphins. That's very good.

 

Again, it was wildly obvious simply from watching the games that Tyrod simply wasn't throwing long balls anywhere near as well in 2016 and 2017 as he had in 2015. He missed open recievers, a lot of them. The naked eye made it obvious at the time and the stats only confirmed the already visible. He simply wasn't throwing the long balls as well anymore.

 

I always remember the 3rd and 24 against the Raiders in the 2nd quarter with 7:34 on the clock. Goodwin's all alone on the left side, and Tyrod waits and beautifully runs away from the rush and slips out to the left. The coverage is pretty good and around 38 yards downfield Goodwin cuts off the route and heads directly back down the sideline a couple of yards ahead of his coverage guy. Nobody close to Tyrod, who sees Goodwin and throws to him, bouncing the ball around eight yards in front of Goodwin. If completed it's a first down on a third and 24 play. Not even close. 

 

Now if that were the only play, hey, everybody has a few bad throws. But in terms of long balls in 2016 and 2017, Tyrod had a lot more than a few.

 

I had a few moments so after watching and wincing at that play again I looked at the rest of the Raiders game. Like the other horrible miss to a wide-open Goodwin 25 yards downfield with 2:34 in the 2nd. Or the awful one at 12:42 in the third when Sammy absolutely flies by his man on the right, wide open, nobody able to catch him, he's waving his arm for a long ball. Tyrod never looks to that side of the field, unfortunately but the play could still work as Goodwin beats his CB and correctly slows down around 15 - 20 yards downfield because the safety is deep. He falls open on the sideline. Tyrod still has the ball cocked, not throwing it. O"Leary, believe it or not beats his man on a go route and is open down the middle going into the end zone 38 yards downfield and slowly heading left.  Intermediate left and long middle open and Tyrod goes long to the left as if he's throwing it away. Thing is, there was no way Goodwin could've gotten open long. Two great options, one for a long TD and he throws it to nobody. 

 

Or 4th quarter 13:36, when he overthrew Christian twenty yards out alone and with nobody behind him around 25 more yards, open for what would probably have been a forty or fifty yard gain. 

 

Or 4:25 in the 4th when he overthrows a wide-open Sammy for what would've been a 28 yard touchdown.

 

What was his longest completion? Around 16 yards? Sure wasn't because of a lack of opportunity.

 

God, it's depressing looking at it again. I shouldn't have started this. Too obvious anyway.

Edited May 21, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Not really a narrative. 

 

Is Top 7 in the league in points scored a good offense or not? This with little help from the defense in forcing turnovers. 

 

Isnt 7 out of 32 teams top of the league? 

 

And my point all along was Tyrod is a solid option in an offense that suits his style of play with good players around him. 

 

The 2015 and 2016 seasons proved just that. 

 

 

 

 

 

Yup. 7th in the league is impressive. For the offense.

 

Not for the passing game, that's for sure. But for the offense, yeah, very impressive.

 

#1 in running TDs scored, by a very large margin. #1 in running yards.

 

#27 in passing TDs scored. #30 in passing yards. Not quite so impressive, there. Some might even say crappy. 

 

The Bills scored 29 rushing TDs (the Cowboys were 2nd with 24 and the Cards and Falcs tied for 3rd with 20 each ... the Bills running game had a sensational year scoring) and 17 recieving TDs. 29 rushing to 17 passing.

 

And the only other team to score more rushing TDs than passing TDs was ... oh, wait, nobody else did that. The Bills were the only one.

 

So yeah, the scoring numbers were impressive, but for the running game. The passing game's scoring numbers and really all the passing game's other numbers all ranged from below average to bad.

 

Tyrod's 2015 season proved that when teams didn't know how to defend him he was terrific, for the first seven games or so, a QB rating well over 100. But for his remaining seven games that year his QB rating was within a point and a half of his average for the whole three years. After they figured him out, he was slightly below average as a passer on a very consistent basis for the rest of his tenure here.

 

 

Edited May 21, 2018 by Thurman#1

[mjt328]

Let the man coach how he sees fit.

 

Some coaches (like McDermott) believe that all starting jobs should be won in training camp.

Some coaches default to the veteran, and wait until he fails before sliding in a rookie.

Some coaches default to the rookie, believing his team will benefit in the long-run by getting the growing pains out of the way.

 

There are examples of each method succeeding.  There are examples of each method failing.

If Hugh Jackson listened to this Sports Illustrated article, and then Baker Mayfield struggled badly - the same reporter would criticize him for not being patient in the development of his young quarterback.

 

[grb]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

What's ludicrous is you assuming that you know all the pain entailed after he'd already been sitting and healing for half the season while I don't. Neither of us does. What both of us should know is that Watkins was effective enough despite whatever pain he had that when the throws were good he was able to get open and make some nice long catches. Look at the beautiful play he made on that long ball in the Jags game, his first game back. Sweet. He was effective but he didn't get a lot of good balls thrown his way.

 

He was good enough that when he got good balls thrown to him he had a 154 yard game against the Dolphins. That's very good.

 

Again, it was wildly obvious simply from watching the games that Tyrod simply wasn't throwing long balls anywhere near as well in 2016 and 2017 as he had in 2015. He missed open recievers, a lot of them. The naked eye made it obvious at the time and the stats only confirmed the already visible. He simply wasn't throwing the long balls as well anymore.

 

I always remember the 3rd and 24 against the Raiders in the 2nd quarter with 7:34 on the clock. Goodwin's all alone on the left side, and Tyrod waits and beautifully runs away from the rush and slips out to the left. The coverage is pretty good and around 38 yards downfield Goodwin cuts off the route and heads directly back down the sideline a couple of yards ahead of his coverage guy. Nobody close to Tyrod, who sees Goodwin and throws to him, bouncing the ball around eight yards in front of Goodwin. If completed it's a first down on a third and 24 play. Not even close. 

 

Now if that were the only play, hey, everybody has a few bad throws. But in terms of long balls in 2016 and 2017, Tyrod had a lot more than a few.

 

I had a few moments so after watching and wincing at that play again I looked at the rest of the Raiders game. Like the other horrible miss to a wide-open Goodwin 25 yards downfield with 2:34 in the 2nd. Or the awful one at 12:42 in the third when Sammy absolutely flies by his man on the right, wide open, nobody able to catch him, he's waving his arm for a long ball. Tyrod never looks to that side of the field, unfortunately but the play could still work as Goodwin beats his CB and correctly slows down around 15 - 20 yards downfield because the safety is deep. He falls open on the sideline. Tyrod still has the ball cocked, not throwing it. O"Leary, believe it or not beats his man on a go route and is open down the middle going into the end zone 38 yards downfield and slowly heading left.  Intermediate left and long middle open and Tyrod goes long to the left as if he's throwing it away. Thing is, there was no way Goodwin could've gotten open long. Two great options, one for a long TD and he throws it to nobody. 

 

Or 4th quarter 13:36, when he overthrew Christian twenty yards out alone and with nobody behind him around 25 more yards, open for what would probably have been a forty or fifty yard gain. 

 

Or 4:25 in the 4th when he overthrows a wide-open Sammy for what would've been a 28 yard touchdown.

 

What was his longest completion? Around 16 yards? Sure wasn't because of a lack of opportunity.

 

God, it's depressing looking at it again. I shouldn't have started this. Too obvious anyway.

 

 

Babble boiled down to substance :

• Yes, Taylor's deep threat played all of 2016 on a broken left foot, but he had one good game so that's irrelevant
• Yes, the same broken foot had him on injured reserve half the season, but one good game, etc, etc, etc.
• Yes, the same broken foot had him benched for eight games after week two as completely ineffectual, but one good game, etc, etc, etc
• Yes, Taylor didn't have anything remotely close to a deep threat in 2017 , but watch me fill a page yakking about (what I call) a few bad throws
• Yes, losing a deep threat in 2016 and 2017 corresponds to a less effect deep game, but that's just a coincidence !!! It's all Taylor's fault.
• Really. I (supposedly) believe this crap.

 

Edited May 21, 2018 by grb

[twoandfourteen]

2 hours ago, grb said:

 

 

Babble boiled down to substance :

• Yes, Taylor's deep threat played all of 2016 on a broken left foot, but he had one good game so that's irrelevant
• Yes, the same broken foot had him on injured reserve half the season, but one good game, etc, etc, etc.
• Yes, the same broken foot had him benched for eight games after week two as completely ineffectual, but one good game, etc, etc, etc
• Yes, Taylor didn't have anything remotely close to a deep threat in 2017 , but watch me fill a page yakking about (what I call) a few bad throws
• Yes, losing a deep threat in 2016 and 2017 corresponds to a less effect deep game, but that's just a coincidence !!! It's all Taylor's fault.
• Really. I (supposedly) believe this crap.

 

 

These are all good points. 

 

If only the Bills had another "deep threat" on the roster back in 2016. 

 

 

Marquise Goodwin: 

 

2016 - 68tgts  29rec  431yds  14.9yds/rec  3TDs   28.7yds/gm  42.6catch%  (Tyrod Taylor)

2017 - 105tgts  56rec  962yds   17.2yds/rec   2TDs   60.1yds/gm  53.3catch%  (Beathard/Hoyer/Garappolo)

 

 

 

[grb]

2 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

These are all good points. 

 

If only the Bills had another "deep threat" on the roster back in 2016. 

 

 

Marquise Goodwin: 

 

2016 - 68tgts  29rec  431yds  14.9yds/rec  3TDs   28.7yds/gm  42.6catch%  (Tyrod Taylor)

2017 - 105tgts  56rec  962yds   17.2yds/rec   2TDs   60.1yds/gm  53.3catch%  (Beathard/Hoyer/Garappolo)

 

 

 

 

Which is a very good point in turn. People keep claiming individual receivers had much better production before/after Taylor. For the most part this claim is based on little or nothing. Clay, Hogan, and Woods had tiny gains in targets, which is not surprising with the Bills 31st or 32nd in pass attempts. Hogan had a significant bump in yardage his first year with Brady, but was back in TT territory last year. Woods saw a 1-2 yard bump in his per catch number, but the tandem of Woods and Watkins got more catches and more yards per catch when both were healthy with Taylor in '15 than in LA last year. Why? Because Watkins was utilized much less by Goff. Benjamin barely had a healthy moment on the field last year; Matthews had none at all. He was injured before he was traded from Philly, double injured the second day of camp, and injured thereafter until the team shut his season down.

 

The one exception to these meh differences is Goodwin. I don't have a theory why his case is such an outlier, but it is......

 

Edited May 21, 2018 by grb

[xRUSHx]

On 5/21/2018 at 6:50 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup. 7th in the league is impressive. For the offense.

 

Not for the passing game, that's for sure. But for the offense, yeah, very impressive.

 

#1 in running TDs scored, by a very large margin. #1 in running yards.

 

#27 in passing TDs scored. #30 in passing yards. Not quite so impressive, there. Some might even say crappy. 

 

The Bills scored 29 rushing TDs (the Cowboys were 2nd with 24 and the Cards and Falcs tied for 3rd with 20 each ... the Bills running game had a sensational year scoring) and 17 recieving TDs. 29 rushing to 17 passing.

 

And the only other team to score more rushing TDs than passing TDs was ... oh, wait, nobody else did that. The Bills were the only one.

 

So yeah, the scoring numbers were impressive, but for the running game. The passing game's scoring numbers and really all the passing game's other numbers all ranged from below average to bad.

 

Tyrod's 2015 season proved that when teams didn't know how to defend him he was terrific, for the first seven games or so, a QB rating well over 100. But for his remaining seven games that year his QB rating was within a point and a half of his average for the whole three years. After they figured him out, he was slightly below average as a passer on a very consistent basis for the rest of his tenure here.

 

 

And boom this should end the thread.

 

Truth is Tyrod IMO was carried by McCoy so any average QB should be easily able to duplicate Tyrods career here. Just hand off to the great McCoy and never throw the ball while the D does all the work. Any average joe can pad stats sadly for the Bills the QBs that have been here other then Tyrod have been way below a average joe. Reckless throwing too much is what makes a pickpatrick or a pickpetermen, tone them down and boom Tyrod 2.0. IMO McC should be easily able to duplicate Tyrods best season here while Allen will blow it out of the water like a rice crispy treat strapped to a M80.