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The path to the top is now clear


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Buffalo Rumbling actually did a very nice job on this....

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/22/17151598/2018-nfl-draft-buffalo-bills-path-to-second-overall-pick-goes-through-cleveland-browns-trade

 

Projected trade 1

  • Buffalo gets 4th overall pick
  • Cleveland gets 12th overall, 53rd overall, 2019 first round pick

This represents the premium the New York Jets paid to get up to the 3rd spot and locks in with the Browns’ recent strategy of picking up an extra first rounder each year. It also leaves Buffalo with picks remaining for their next blockbuster trade.

Projected trade 2

  • Buffalo gets 2nd overall pick
  • Giants get 4th overall and 22 overall

Once again, this represents an overpayment and a premium price. The Giants get the player they covet anyway at 4th overall while picking up an extra first round pick. This is the easier of the two deals to pull off as the Giants are guaranteed one of the two players they were attempting to select.

 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloHogan said:

If they want to get to 2, the path is now clear.

 

Trade with the Browns at 4.  Take 4 and add some picks to it and Voila!

 

Browns get 2 more firsts, Giants get Chubb, Bills get Rosen...

 

Win, Win, Win!

Forgetting the jets?

 

Edit: nvm misread it

Edited by BillsSbSoon
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7 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Buffalo Rumbling actually did a very nice job on this....

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/22/17151598/2018-nfl-draft-buffalo-bills-path-to-second-overall-pick-goes-through-cleveland-browns-trade

 

Projected trade 1

  • Buffalo gets 4th overall pick
  • Cleveland gets 12th overall, 53rd overall, 2019 first round pick

This represents the premium the New York Jets paid to get up to the 3rd spot and locks in with the Browns’ recent strategy of picking up an extra first rounder each year. It also leaves Buffalo with picks remaining for their next blockbuster trade.

Projected trade 2

  • Buffalo gets 2nd overall pick
  • Giants get 4th overall and 22 overall

Once again, this represents an overpayment and a premium price. The Giants get the player they covet anyway at 4th overall while picking up an extra first round pick. This is the easier of the two deals to pull off as the Giants are guaranteed one of the two players they were attempting to select.

 

No chance Cleveland drops out of contention for Barkley or Chubb for essentially 2 2nd rounders.  The drop from 4 to 12 takes more than that, especially given the QB premium. The Jets gave up more to move up 2 spots.

Edited by cle23
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15 minutes ago, The Bills Blog said:

Why oh why oh why does everyone want Rosen?! He's made of glass, can't move, and will get his pretty teeth kicked in the moment he takes his first snap.

Because he was the top QB recruit coming out of high school, has NFL size, has shown he knows how to set his feet (a very important part of QB play) and arm is good enough. He has a chance to be the next Matt Ryan. 

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It is very possible that this is exactly what we need to do.  All of the Giants beat reporters don't think they will trade with the Bills because the players they want won't be there at 12.  Many believe Chubbs is the best player in the draft so getting him and extra picks might be the Giants dream scenario.  I also think they might go QB at 2.

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20 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

not a bad strategy, unless the Browns are wed to Barkely at 4.   But Browns would be foolish, IMO, to be wed to a RB that early.  Lots of great RB's in this draft, and CLE could totally rebuild their team with more picks smartly deployed. 

 

I'd prefer Mayfield, but Rosen is my 2nd QB choice.   

 

 

 

nothing else to do.  It's pre-draft time baby!!!  Enjoy the craziness!!!!!!

 

 

Cleveland already has a million picks this year. If you want to tempt them, you'd better be willing to give up picks from next year or even the year after when they don't have any yet.

 

What Cleveland wouldn't want to do is have like eight guys in the first three rounds this year and then four years down the road have to say goodbye to half of them because they can't afford all of those contracts hitting together. Bet we're gonna see them try to space out the riches over the next few years.

 

 

19 hours ago, mathja said:

3-way trade that seems reasonable:

 

Cleveland gets: #6 from colts,  #22 from Bills. 2380 points.

 

Indy gets: #12 from Bills, #35 from Cleveland, #65 from Bills. 2015 points.

 

Buffalo gets: #4 from Cleveland. 1800 points.

 

Cleveland still might have a shot at saquon Barkley if the Giants pass and Denver passes on him. Even if they don't get him they could grab Bradley Chubb or Quenton Nelson at 6. All three are probably in the mix for the 4th overall pick right now and they would get one of them. I think that is the key to making a deal like this happen. They also get to pick 22nd instead of 35th. Cleveland comes out slightly ahead in point value by about 30 points.

 

Indy would move out of contention for Chubb and Barkley, but they only move down six spots and pick up 35 and 65. They have already picked up two second-rounders from the Jets this year and another next year. They would pick three times in a row in the early second round and also pick up the first pick in the third round. This is a huge opportunity for a team to build a roster that already has a championship-caliber quarterback, Assuming he's healthy. They come out ahead more than 400 points on the draft value chart, 1600 to 2015.

 

Buffalo moves into the top four and still has two second-rounders and a third-rounder available to them for use or to trade. If the Giants decide not to draft a quarterback, they would be crazy not to move from #2 to #4. And if they have made that decision, I'm sure Buffalo could jump the two spots by offering just one second round pick. It would still leave them with a second and a third. If the Giants decide they are going to draft a quarterback, it means Buffalo gets the fourth quarterback chosen in the draft. They would have to be comfortable with Baker Mayfield or Josh Allen in order to do this, making the assumption that Darnold, Rosen, and one of Mayfield or Allen will get picked before they are on the clock. The only other concern would be the Giants trading out with Denver or someone else like Arizona, but it still guarantees Buffalo with one of those top four quarterbacks. It would also be difficult for Denver or Arizona to beat a buffalo offer if the bills are sitting with the 4th pick.

 

Bottom line, it makes so much more sense to deal with Cleveland to get up to number 4 first, before going directly to the Giants. That would be way more expensive. Adding Indianapolis to the mix makes even more sense.

 

 

 

We can't be sure of anything, much less that a 2nd would be enough for the Giants to move back from #2 to #4. It could work. But I can also see plenty of reasons it might not. The Giants might decide they want to go QB unless they get an offer a lot sweeter than that one, for instance. We'd then be stuck at #4 without a trading partner and having given up both firsts in trade.

 

I'm trying to think how that would feel, to be stuck at #4, and watch three QBs come off the board. My guess is that it would depend on which three were picked and that that comes down to too much reliance on luck for them to be happy with the situation.

 

If the whole thing here worked out and we could get all the way to #2 for that price, I'd love it. I'm not as confident about that as you seem to be.

Edited by Thurman#1
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