Guess the longshot QB

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Less than a February away.  (28 days)

[MAJBobby]

22 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

So here's a little story about a day 3 draft pick at QB. He sat for a few years and finally got an opportunity to come into the season as his team's starter in 2015. He put together solid seasons in 2015 and 2016, but 2017 was his worst year by nearly any statistical measure.

 

2017 wasn't entirely his fault, though. It was his first year with a new OC because his previous OC was hired to be the HC in LA. His top 2 WRs from 2015 and 2016 were no longer with the team in 2017, and OL injuries were an issue throughout the year. In addition to all that, his favorite target (his TE) was also injured for a portion of the year.

 

This QB was also a contributor on the ground, ranking top 3 in rushing TDs by QBs from 2015-2017. His team made the playoffs once in his 3 years as a starter, and despite consistently below average defensive performance over the 3 years, the team has a record above .500 when he starts.

 

Now that 2017 is over, many of the local fans criticize him because they do not believe he is capable of elevating the team around him and they question why the national media ever speaks highly of him. It is pretty clear that the team also intends to move on from him prior to the 2018 season.

 

Who's that QB?

 

56 passing yard. 

[SouthNYfan]

29 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Less than a February away.  (28 days)

 

Glad it's not a leap year

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Less than a February away.  (28 days)

We're signing Cousins at the start of FA?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, JoeF said:

Chris:  Brandon, is this an okay way to answer this fan question?

Brandon:  Excellent, Chris.  You keep it up and maybe we can get a 6th or 7th for the guy Coach benched.

Chris:  Happy to help the cause.

Brandon:  Here's a Tim Horton's gift card.  Enjoy buddy!

 

(Editor's Note:  Brandon = Beane not Russ)

 

LOL!  Nicely done.

That said, do you really think the GM is worried about PR answers fan questions influencing FO decisions around the league?

 

Chris Brown is a BB advertising man, essentially.  They say there's "truth in advertising", but just as there's yeast in bread, you have to hunt for it.

 

IMO what Chris said reflects a reality -

I think the Bills have a ranked series of solutions to the QB position some of which include keeping Taylor on the roster, and one of which may include keeping him as the starter.

My guess would be they have a couple of solutions involving signing a FA QB  - in which case Taylor gets cut.

They have a couple of solutions involving drafting a rookie who is ready to start, in which case Taylor may or may not remain on the roster depending upon what other vet FAs are available and for what price.

Then they have a solution involving drafting a rookie who is not ready to start, in which case Taylor may remain the starter

 

Chris said there is a "real possibility" not that there is a "high probability".  As far as I can tell, "real possibility" would apply to something that's on your list of solutions to a problem, but nowhere near the top.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BuffaloFan68]

Doesn't really matter,  don't want either of them on our team. 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

So 25 more days until the Bills can part ways with Tyrod     

 

Just over three weeks.  

 

Can?

 

They can do it now.

 

Just cut him. That's what so many of you believe we'll inevitably do, right?

 

Why hasn't that happened yet?

 

Pretty sure we don't have to wait for the new league year for that.

[transplantbillsfan]

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/02/7_reasons_tyrod_taylor_will_be_the_buffalo_bills_starting_quarterback_in_2018.html

7 reasons Tyrod Taylor will be the Buffalo Bills' starting quarterback in 2018

1) He's already under contract

2) Deal comes off the books in 2019

3) Allows Buffalo to be aggressive in 2018 NFL draft

4) Keeps door open for rookie to start

5) Team knows what they have in Taylor

6) Mobility needed at position

7) Brian Daboll can build offense around Taylor's strengths

[PolishDave]

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/02/7_reasons_tyrod_taylor_will_be_the_buffalo_bills_starting_quarterback_in_2018.html

7 reasons Tyrod Taylor will be the Buffalo Bills' starting quarterback in 2018

1) He's already under contract

2) Deal comes off the books in 2019

3) Allows Buffalo to be aggressive in 2018 NFL draft

4) Keeps door open for rookie to start

5) Team knows what they have in Taylor

6) Mobility needed at position

7) Brian Daboll can build offense around Taylor's strengths

 

5) Team knows what they have in Taylor

 

Which is why they will very likely move on from him in the next couple months.

 

7) Brian Daboll can build offense around Taylor's strengths

 

There is next to zero chance of this happening in my opinion.   If McDermott didn't make Rick Dennison do it last year - why in hell would he even allow it to happen now even if Daboll wanted to do it.    It seems apparent that McDermott knows Tyrod isn't the right fit for this team.  And it is apparent Beane agrees - otherwise he wouldn't have publicly mentioned his preference for a pocket passer.

 

Reasons why the Bills will likely move on:

 

1) They know what they have in Taylor and have determined it is not good enough to build a consistent winner.

2) He can be replaced with a better (even if temporary) pocket passer for the same money (maybe even less).

3) Fans will throw projectiles at McDermott on the sidelines during games if Taylor is a starter and the passing game continues sucking

 

 

The days of "quarterbacks with wheels" are over in Buffalo for the immediate and foreseeable future.  (At least for the rest of the McDermott and Beane era)

Prepare yourself for Drew Bledsoe 2.0

[Zerovoltz]

I think sometimes people get caught up in stats a little too much...and I love stats and trying to find ways to quantify things.  ....As someone who has carefully observed Alex Smith for 5 seasons, if all we went off of were Alex Smiths stats, then you would think KC had a top 5 QB...and even this year, using only stats, you could make a top 3 argument.  Football is still a game that the metrics have trouble capturing the whole package.  Smith is a perfect example of this.  His completion pct is incredibly high.  He also rarely turns the ball over.  He had some great "deep ball" stats this year as well.  Going off of all this, one would wonder why in the world KC would ever want to move on from him?  The answer is, you have to actually watch the games to see the story the stats aren't telling you.  In the case of Smith, his completion pct is high because he A)opts to throw a lot of short, open, easy passes.  B) He doesn't throw the 50/50 ball.  EVER.  if he does go downfield, it's because he does see the wide open target and gets it there.  C) he will not risk a turnover to make a play.  KC has been an AWFUL DREADFUL 3rd down team for years.  Smith will run, or check down and throw short on 3rd and 8.  No INT. No sack.  No turnover.  Stat sheet shows complete pass.  Stat sheet doesn't account for the fact you needed Smith to make something happen to extend a drive etc.  There is also no stat for pocket presence.  Smith doesn't have good pocket presence.  To the untrained eye, he appears to be "extending the play" but 7 out of 10 times, he has abandoned a perfectly good NFL pocket to go running, often at the expense of a more positive outcome if he stood in and found the open man.  ....Going back to Smiths deep ball stats this year....if you look at the plays, he literally felt Tyreek Hill was open enough and that he could throw it out there (Smith has tendancy to overthrow when he goes deep to avoid the pick) so far and Hill could still get it...that Smith had some success on these this year.  ....again, because they were wide open. (you could say he at least hit the guy who was open) ....but you would pull your hair out watching games and realize for every one of these he hit...he NEVER SAW the other 3 wide open shots becaue of the poor pocket presece.  

 

My whole point here is that Smiths stat sheet doesn't paint the whole picture and neither does Cousins.  Someone here said they went back and watched Cousins actually play football games....I highly recommend that before making a call on what you think of Cousins (or Smith, or Rosen, Darnold, etc) is that you go watch games...pay attention to the situation, do they stand in a pocket and read the field?  Do they take a chance and make a play when you need a play or do they play it safe?  Can they "feel" the pocket?  Do they check down at the correct time?  How open are their targets?  Does the play inflate the QB's stats (60 yard screen pass) vs ball in the air yards?  

 

 

[PolishDave]

9 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

My whole point here is that Smiths stat sheet doesn't paint the whole picture and neither does Cousins.  Someone here said they went back and watched Cousins actually play football games....I highly recommend that before making a call on what you think of Cousins (or Smith, or Rosen, Darnold, etc) is that you go watch games...pay attention to the situation, do they stand in a pocket and read the field?  Do they take a chance and make a play when you need a play or do they play it safe?  Can they "feel" the pocket?  Do they check down at the correct time?  How open are their targets?  Does the play inflate the QB's stats (60 yard screen pass) vs ball in the air yards?  

 

Good post.  

 

You do have to wonder, if Cousins is as good as some people here make him out to be, why in the world would Washington let him go and pay another guy with questionmarks a big salary to replace him?

 

If you have a franchise quarterback playing great football, you don't let him go right?   There are reasons why Washington is letting Cousins walk.   Those reasons should be concerns for anyone thinking of signing the guy.   Bills should trust the draft to find their franchise guy.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

Good post.  

 

You do have to wonder, if Cousins is as good as some people here make him out to be, why in the world would Washington let him go and pay another guy with questionmarks a big salary to replace him?

 

If you have a franchise quarterback playing great football, you don't let him go right?   There are reasons why Washington is letting Cousins walk.   Those reasons should be concerns for anyone thinking of signing the guy.   Bills should trust the draft to find their franchise guy.

 

I think people overthink looking for reasons.  Washington misjudged Cousins.  Then they lost their choice.  Washington isn't "letting him go", Washington can't keep him.

 

McCloughan put it out there in plain English: in 2015, when he took over as the Redskins GM, Cousins had shown enough that he and McVay and Gruden felt they were willing to give him a chance to start.  But they weren't prepared to sign him to the contract he thought his 2015 play deserved.  They "didn't see special". 

 

And they didn't let him go - they kept him, by tagging him twice.  By the time Washington fired McCloughan, Cousins contract demands went up after 2 seasons of strong performance.  Now they're out of options.  Cousins doesn't want their contract.  He wants FA, to see if he can find a better team.

 

I don't think Cousins is a top-5 QB.  The thing is, when you look at QB salaries, they don't line up with who is really top 5 in talent.   They line up with when a guy signs, and the bar keeps going higher.  If they did line up with talent, Flacco and Derek Carr and Stafford and Garappolo (based on his minimal body of work) would not be up where they are.  McCloughan couldn't come to terms with that and neither could Allen.

 

[PolishDave]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think people overthink looking for reasons.  Washington misjudged Cousins.  Then they lost their choice.  Washington isn't "letting him go", Washington can't keep him.

 

McCloughan put it out there in plain English: in 2015, when he took over as the Redskins GM, Cousins had shown enough that he and McVay and Gruden felt they were willing to give him a chance to start.  But they weren't prepared to sign him to the contract he thought his 2015 play deserved.  They "didn't see special". 

 

And they didn't let him go - they kept him, by tagging him twice.  By the time Washington fired McCloughan, Cousins contract demands went up after 2 seasons of strong performance.  Now they're out of options.  Cousins doesn't want their contract.  He wants FA, to see if he can find a better team.

 

I don't think Cousins is a top-5 QB.  The thing is, when you look at QB salaries, they don't line up with who is really top 5 in talent.   They line up with when a guy signs, and the bar keeps going higher.  If they did line up with talent, Flacco and Derek Carr and Stafford and Garappolo (based on his minimal body of work) would not be up where they are.  McCloughan couldn't come to terms with that and neither could Allen.

 

 

They knew what they were doing when they tagged him.     They were keeping him (for now) while deciding they would not commit.   In other words - they decided he isn't good enough to be their franchise QB.

 

Maybe they changed their minds and regret it now?   Yeah could be.    Or maybe they made this decision when they first tagged him and kept him around until the price to do so was too high knowing that this day would come.

 

Washington has a history of making stupid decisions.  So it is entirely possible that they just effed up completely.   

 

I am still skeptical of Cousins though.   Enough to make me want to try getting someone who could be truly elite in the draft instead of building around Cousins.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said:

I think sometimes people get caught up in stats a little too much...and I love stats and trying to find ways to quantify things.  ....As someone who has carefully observed Alex Smith for 5 seasons, if all we went off of were Alex Smiths stats, then you would think KC had a top 5 QB...and even this year, using only stats, you could make a top 3 argument.  Football is still a game that the metrics have trouble capturing the whole package.  Smith is a perfect example of this. 

 

Agree completely.  Good post. 

 

1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said:

My whole point here is that Smiths stat sheet doesn't paint the whole picture and neither does Cousins.  Someone here said they went back and watched Cousins actually play football games....I highly recommend that before making a call on what you think of Cousins (or Smith, or Rosen, Darnold, etc) is that you go watch games...pay attention to the situation, do they stand in a pocket and read the field?  Do they take a chance and make a play when you need a play or do they play it safe?  Can they "feel" the pocket?  Do they check down at the correct time?  How open are their targets?  Does the play inflate the QB's stats (60 yard screen pass) vs ball in the air yards? 

 

That was me...and I too love stats but there is no substitute for watching games carefully. 

 

FWIW if you love stats, you might take a look at the NFL next gen stats if you haven't.  They're trying to quantitate some stuff such as "aggressiveness index", looking at how often a QB throws into tight coverage, and "air yards to the sticks" looking at whether a QB is trying to make first downs in the air or counting on his players to get YAC. 

 

I'm still trying to get to grips with what they all mean, because some stats are heavily influenced by a certain type of play (long bombs for example, significantly skew air yards just as they skew y/a).

 

Anyway if you look at these, Alex Smith is 2nd lowest ain AGG (down in CJ Beathard/Brett Hundley/Joe Flacco land) while Cousins is significantly higher (sandwiched between Brees and Rivers).  Ditto in Air Yards to the Sticks. 

 

Just another perspective.