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Matt Waldman on What is "NFL Open"?


Thurman#1

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Those stats haven't been updated for 2017 I'm assuming.

 

I presume you're asking about Brady's. Short answer : I don't know how old those numbers are. In a way it's a moot point, because it's an article of religious faith to many on this board that good quarterbacks (not to mention GOAT quarterbacks) are unaffected by the quality of their targets. This is, of course, ludicrously absurd - but still people believe. However old the numbers they're a sufficient sample size to prove a point.

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I presume you're asking about Brady's. Short answer : I don't know how old those numbers are. In a way it's a moot point, because it's an article of religious faith to many on this board that good quarterbacks (not to mention GOAT quarterbacks) are unaffected by the quality of their targets. This is, of course, ludicrously absurd - but still people believe. However old the numbers they're a sufficient sample size to prove a point.

LOL. You list a stat that says 'since 2009' and doesn't include 2017...11 TDs/1 INT and 340 ypg on 68%.

Edited by GoBills808
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"In the NFL, wide-open, is having 1-2 steps on the defender. Open is being even with the defender but in a superior position. Big difference, isnt it."

 

1-2 steps is definitely not Tyrod's idea of "wide open".

 

He doesn't feel it in his heart and for him the receiver is still only basically almost open.

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Myself personally, I think Taylor could be a great QB if he could see the field better grb

 

I had hoped some innovative thinking on Dennisons part could help...

 

I think Taylor would be a very, very good quarterback if he could just eliminate his dead-zone games. Just raise the level of his bottom performances a notch. Obviously, I'm disappointed this season because he's already had two of them, Carolina & Cincinnati. Yes, it's fair to consider the circumstances but that only get's you so far. In this cold&brutal world excuses aren't welcome even if legit.

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LOL. You list a stat that says 'since 2009' and doesn't include 2017...11 TDs/1 INT and 340 ypg on 68%.

 

Touche. So Brady relied on Edelman as a (rhetorical overkill alert) "crutch" thru enough season to tally up 248 td passes, but doesn't any more.

Doesn't make the slightest difference to my point, does it? Because the people I'm responding-to insist receiver quality doesn't impact quarterback play.

And it's amazing how often they bring up Brady as "proving" their point.......

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Touche. So Brady relied on Edelman as a (rhetorical overkill alert) "crutch" thru enough season to tally up 248 td passes, but doesn't any more.

Doesn't make the slightest difference to my point, does it? Because the people I'm responding-to insist receiver quality doesn't impact quarterback play.

And it's amazing how often they bring up Brady as "proving" their point.......

You brought him up here to prove your point.

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I saw plays with Tate, Thomas and Zay where they were 2 steps open and the ball was still glued to T's hand. He's never changing. Time to move on. Timid qbs win few super bowls.

 

And yet when playing with Watkins & Woods (hardly super-receivers, but decent NFL grade targets) somehow Taylor's hands were less sticky.

Kinda funny that. It might make a open-minded person wonder about his assumptions......

You brought him up here to prove your point.

 

And prove it I did !!!

Edited by grb
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And prove it I did !!!

No. What you've proven is your grasp of the mechanics involved in the QB/WR relationship and how they're expressed in a statistical manner is tenuous at best. You chose to highlight team win percentage (neither a QB nor WR specific stat) and TD/INT and TD/INT ratio, both at best only tangentially related to a QB's relative performance with different sets of receivers (and certainly, as another poster pointed out, even less meaningful when quantifying an overly conservative QB like Taylor).

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And yet when playing with Watkins & Woods (hardly super-receivers, but decent NFL grade targets) somehow Taylor's hands were less sticky.

Kinda funny that. It might make a open-minded person wonder about his assumptions......

 

I agree, though I'm not sure it helps your point.

 

He peaked 2 years ago and is in rapid decline.

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Touche. So Brady relied on Edelman as a (rhetorical overkill alert) "crutch" thru enough season to tally up 248 td passes, but doesn't any more.

Doesn't make the slightest difference to my point, does it? Because the people I'm responding-to insist receiver quality doesn't impact quarterback play.

And it's amazing how often they bring up Brady as "proving" their point.......

 

since becoming the player he is now, Edelman only has 20 TD over 4 seasons...6, 4, 7, and 3.

 

Edelman is the 'move the chains' crutch.

 

However, Edelman is not the only receiver Brady throws open, throws to spots expecting him there, etc. He does that with ALL receivers. It's why not everyone fits in with NE because as a receiver you need to read defenses like a QB to know where to be and when to meet the ball.

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since becoming the player he is now, Edelman only has 20 TD over 4 seasons...6, 4, 7, and 3.

 

Edelman is the 'move the chains' crutch.

 

However, Edelman is not the only receiver Brady throws open, throws to spots expecting him there, etc. He does that with ALL receivers. It's why not everyone fits in with NE because as a receiver you need to read defenses like a QB to know where to be and when to meet the ball.

Having some chemistry with your go to guy is a must ...

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No. What you've proven is your grasp of the mechanics involved in the QB/WR relationship and how they're expressed in a statistical manner is tenuous at best. You chose to highlight team win percentage (neither a QB nor WR specific stat) and TD/INT and TD/INT ratio, both at best only tangentially related to a QB's relative performance with different sets of receivers (and certainly, as another poster pointed out, even less meaningful when quantifying an overly conservative QB like Taylor).

 

Okay-dokey........ Of course I already knew quarterbacking statistics don't count re Tyrod, but apparently this post-modern development has now spread to his peers.

I'm curious, tho : You've (of course) proved the numbers mean nothing, and I congratulate you. But let me know what your sense is : Did Edelman's absence affect Brady's performance or not?

I await the benefit of your wisdom.......

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Okay-dokey........ Of course I already knew quarterbacking statistics don't count re Tyrod, but apparently this post-modern development has now spread to his peers.

I'm curious, tho : You've (of course) proved the numbers mean nothing, and I congratulate you. But let me know what your sense is : Did Edelman's absence affect Brady's performance or not?

I await the benefit of your wisdom.......

 

not yet. He's throwing for 44 more yards per game and 1% better completion % and an identical 112 rating to last year

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not yet. He's throwing for 44 more yards per game and 1% better completion % and an identical 112 rating to last year

 

And yet there's has been a huge difference between Brady's performance in games with and without Edelman. A difference stretching over multiple years and many seasons. A difference lasting long enough to amass 248 total td passes, which takes a good while - even for Brady. Now GoBills808, says you can't read anything into those numbers - for instance, a touchdown to interception ratio nearly three times worse with Edelman out of the lineup. So what do you think? Mere coincidence?

 

Tom Brady (over multiple seasons) :

 

With Edelman win percentage : .818. Without Edelman win percent : .684

With Edelman pass td-int : 215-44 Without Edelman td-int : 33-19

With Edelman td-in ratio : 4.9 Without Edelman td-int ratio : 1.7

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And yet there's has been a huge difference between Brady's performance in games with and without Edelman. A difference stretching over multiple years and many seasons. A difference lasting long enough to amass 248 total td passes, which takes a good while - even for Brady. Now GoBills808, says you can't read anything into those numbers - for instance, a touchdown to interception ratio nearly three times worse with Edelman out of the lineup. So what do you think? Mere coincidence?

 

Tom Brady (over multiple seasons) :

 

With Edelman win percentage : .818. Without Edelman win percent : .684

With Edelman pass td-int : 215-44 Without Edelman td-int : 33-19

With Edelman td-in ratio : 4.9 Without Edelman td-int ratio : 1.7

This post makes no sense at all. Edelman has done jack sht for the Pats until Welker left around 2013 on. He has a whole 4500 yards receiving in his career.. I guess Brady's other 60000 passing yards just went poffff?

 

You need to try again, your 8% is enough to validate anything

Edited by Real McCoy
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https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/09/26/the-nfl-lens-separation/

 

 

Waldman's tape breakdowns are generally terrific. He knows what he's looking at, shows good tape to explain and communicates well.

This single video is a perfect example of why the Buffalo Bills will NEVER be successful with Tyrod Taylor as their QB.

If Taylor threw any more INTs people would demand he be benched.

well, you would hope the more INTs came with more production...people tolerated Jim Kelly's turnovers because he was a gambler whose risk taking worked out more times than not...Tyrod plays "not to lose" and when you do that, you never win when you need to.

I saw plays with Tate, Thomas and Zay where they were 2 steps open and the ball was still glued to T's hand. He's never changing. Time to move on. Timid qbs win few super bowls.

exactly...I wish Taylor was as confident in throwing the football as Peterman...I truly believe that within a few years he will be a better QB than Tyrod.

Edited by JaCrispy
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