HappyDays Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 (edited) I think the logic is Wentz sucked as a rookie because of numbers so Happy Days doesn't care what your eyes told you. Deshaun Watson sucks despite putting up numbers through 4 games because Happy Days' eyes tell him so. Through 4 games last year Wentz looked amazing. He had an average passer rating of 104.1 which is great for a rookie, or anyone really, and his lowest through those games was 86.6. The rest of the year he collapsed. Watson hasn't been as impressive through 5 games. An average passer rating of 94.3 with two lows of 60.4 and 75.9. My belief is that as the season goes on his average passer rating will slowly drop because he will regress to the mean of his play. Flukey games like the one he had last night aren't sustainable in the long run and his flaws will bring him down eventually. I don't mind throwing that prediction out there. If I'm wrong then you can let me know in a few weeks. Stats become much more useful at the end of the season than they are in week 5. If you end the season ranked in the bottom 10 of every efficiency stat it's hard to argue that you weren't a bottom 10 passer that season. After week 5 nothing is set in stone, and stats on a game-by-game basis aren't predictive like they are over a full season. Edited October 9, 2017 by HappyDays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Of course Watson has to maintain it before he proves anything at this level. I am confident he will and I am confident you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Game Manager Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Wentz is awesome. Everyone thinks this right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Wentz is awesome. Everyone thinks this right ? I think he is well on the way to being awesome. He is a very good young Quarterback 5 games into his 2nd year. I don't mind saying other teams have good young Quarterbacks that look set for a number of years. I don't feel that is somehow disloyal to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 (edited) Of course Watson has to maintain it before he proves anything at this level. I am confident he will and I am confident you are wrong. That's fair. Our predictions are on the record. Here's a fun tweet to send this thread off: @TomGower: DeShaun Watson becomes the first player with 5 passing TDs in a loss since ... Blake Bortles in 2015 in 42-39 loss to Titans. Edited October 9, 2017 by HappyDays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Through 4 games last year Wentz looked amazing. He had an average passer rating of 104.1 which is great for a rookie, or anyone really, and his lowest through those games was 86.6. The rest of the year he collapsed. Watson hasn't been as impressive through 5 games. An average passer rating of 94.3 with two lows of 60.4 and 75.9. My belief is that as the season goes on his average passer rating will slowly drop because he will regress to the mean of his play. Flukey games like the one he had last night aren't sustainable in the long run and his flaws will bring him down eventually. I don't mind throwing that prediction out there. If I'm wrong then you can let me know in a few weeks. Stats become much more useful at the end of the season than they are in week 5. If you end the season ranked in the bottom 10 of every efficiency stat it's hard to argue that you weren't a bottom 10 passer that season. After week 5 nothing is set in stone, and stats on a game-by-game basis aren't predictive like they are over a full season. How does one determine the "mean of their play?" Sounds like you're betting on every QB to not be good, because most QB's are bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Passer rating: 25th YPA: 28th YPG: 20th TD%: 30th INT%: 18th ANY/A: 27th DVOA: 27th QBR: 26th PFF grades: 20th Let me guess, your counterargument is the "eye test." PFF grades! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 PFF grades! I don't like PFF at all but I figured I'll throw in one eye test stat to appease everyone. If it makes you feel better you can pretend it isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 I don't like PFF at all but I figured I'll throw in one eye test stat to appease everyone. If it makes you feel better you can pretend it isn't there. The way you (not you specifically, but since you did it here...) use these stats to fault a QB like Wentz and in the same breath prop up Taylor...it just screams casual fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 The way you (not you specifically, but since you did it here...) use these stats to fault a QB like Wentz and in the same breath prop up Taylor...it just screams casual fan. I would never use PFF grades for any kind of argument. The other stats, sure. Over a season of play of course they mean something. Even Tyrod last year didn't have good efficiency stats. It was a big step down from 2015. This year he was approximating his 2015 level until the Cincinnati game. Wentz had major problems last year after Week 4 but I didn't give enough credit to the fact that his supporting cast was bad. Adding Jeffrey, Torrey Smith, and Blount has made a world of difference. I still think if you traded both offenses entirely except for the QB, we would have a better record than the Eagles do. Whereas if we just traded the QBs, I've never seen anything from Wentz that makes me think he could make this offense productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 I would never use PFF grades for any kind of argument. The other stats, sure. Over a season of play of course they mean something. Even Tyrod last year didn't have good efficiency stats. It was a big step down from 2015. This year he was approximating his 2015 level until the Cincinnati game. Wentz had major problems last year after Week 4 but I didn't give enough credit to the fact that his supporting cast was bad. Adding Jeffrey, Torrey Smith, and Blount has made a world of difference. I still think if you traded both offenses entirely except for the QB, we would have a better record than the Eagles do. Whereas if we just traded the QBs, I've never seen anything from Wentz that makes me think he could make this offense productive. A world of difference is a bit much. Blount is just OK. He's definitely no McCoy. Smith is sort of an afterthought in that offense, and Jeffrey...he's well off the pace Matthews set last season in Philly. Ertz is good, but honestly not great. The Eagles offense goes as Wentz does right now. It may have been hard to see it last year (although I was a fan of his before the draft), but why are you having such a hard time with it right now? He's a budding star in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Game Manager Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 I would never use PFF grades for any kind of argument. The other stats, sure. Over a season of play of course they mean something. Even Tyrod last year didn't have good efficiency stats. It was a big step down from 2015. This year he was approximating his 2015 level until the Cincinnati game. Wentz had major problems last year after Week 4 but I didn't give enough credit to the fact that his supporting cast was bad. Adding Jeffrey, Torrey Smith, and Blount has made a world of difference. I still think if you traded both offenses entirely except for the QB, we would have a better record than the Eagles do. Whereas if we just traded the QBs, I've never seen anything from Wentz that makes me think he could make this offense productive. If you wanna trade Taylor for Wentz you're gonna have to include 3 1st rounders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 If you wanna trade Taylor for Wentz you're gonna have to include 3 1st rounders. A world of difference is a bit much. Blount is just OK. He's definitely no McCoy. Smith is sort of an afterthought in that offense, and Jeffrey...he's well off the pace Matthews set last season in Philly. Ertz is good, but honestly not great. The Eagles offense goes as Wentz does right now. It may have been hard to see it last year (although I was a fan of his before the draft), but why are you having such a hard time with it right now? He's a budding star in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 If you wanna trade Taylor for Wentz you're gonna have to include 3 1st rounders. Shhhhh the adults are talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 If you wanna trade Taylor for Wentz you're gonna have to include 3 1st rounders. I don't think there's a trade the Eagles would make where Wentz was included in any scenario. He's one of the next group of Franchise QB's who will be the face of that team for the next 10-15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Shhhhh the adults are talking When is Wentz going to "revert to the mean?" Or Ben Roethlisberger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Game Manager Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Shhhhh the adults are talking Enjoy that big bowl of wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 (edited) A world of difference is a bit much. Blount is just OK. He's definitely no McCoy. Smith is sort of an afterthought in that offense, and Jeffrey...he's well off the pace Matthews set last season in Philly. Ertz is good, but honestly not great. The Eagles offense goes as Wentz does right now. It may have been hard to see it last year (although I was a fan of his before the draft), but why are you having such a hard time with it right now? He's a budding star in the NFL. No question Blount isnt better than Shady but he's better than what they had last year. Their run game is 10th in YPA right now, ours is 28th. Last year Philly was 18th. Matthews went from their #1 to their #4 in one offseason. Matthews got more production than Alshon Jeffrey is on pace for only because Matthews was all they had. They have a complementary offense this year and a really good offensive line and they can run the ball. I definitely won't crown Wentz as a budding star. People did that with Bortles too. He still sails too many passes. He's got a better chance than I gave credit for last year though. Edited October 10, 2017 by HappyDays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 I think he is well on the way to being awesome. He is a very good young Quarterback 5 games into his 2nd year. I don't mind saying other teams have good young Quarterbacks that look set for a number of years. I don't feel that is somehow disloyal to Buffalo. Just think the Browns had an opportunity to draft Wentz and instead traded the pick for multiple picks. The Rams did the same thing to move up to draft Goff. When are franchises going to learn that the most important ingredient for success is having a franchise qb? What do you think the Browns would do if they had a do-over? Some teams get it and other teams don't. The three teams who took qbs in the first round all traded up to get their franchise qb. While the Bills dither other teams act aggressively to seize opportunities that we pass on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 No question Blount isnt better than Shady but he's better than what they had last year. Their run game is 10th in YPA right now, ours is 28th. Last year Philly was 18th. Matthews went from their #1 to their #4 in one offseason. Matthews got more production than Alshon Jeffrey is on pace for only because Matthews was all they had. They have a complementary offense this year and a really good offensive line and they can run the ball. I definitely won't crown Wentz as a budding star. People did that with Bortles too. He still sails too many passes. He's got a better chance than I gave credit for last year though. I'm going to assume you'd rather have Taylor than Wentz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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