A Few Thoughts About the Upcoming 2017 Season

[Virgil]

I wanted to get a trial run post in here before the season started and it looks like it took today's news to motivate me. I wanted to do them for the preseason games, but there's just too many players, vanilla schemes, and other things going on to limit observations to 10 things. I'm sure a lot of our new members won't have any idea what this thread is about, but I'm hoping things go as well as last year. I talked to Bill From NY and I have his blessing again. He's going to do a cameo review for one of the games, but I'll leave that as a surprise for some of you.

 

As for today, I think my co-workers assumed someone died in my family. I literally stopped dead in my tracks when I saw the news on my phone. I saw in silence for about 5 minutes as I went through all the articles, called my father and had to convince him I wasn't lying to him, and then just listened to WGR and the pressers while I tried to wrap my head around what happened. With that being said, here we go:

 

1 - 6 Wins - That's about where I had the team this season, even before today's trades. I'd like to think that I'm somewhat a realist who takes every loss to heart and eagerly awaits the return to glory. With that, I believe that any team, regardless of talent, will struggle with a new head coach, especially a first time head coach. It doesn't matter the team or coach, it's just a matter of scheme and culture change. I'm not going to look up the stats, but I'm sure it's not favorable. Like anyone in a new environment, people need to learn, grow, and develop. I like the hiring and hope for the best. But that, plus our strength of schedule; I just think 6 wins was realistic.

 

2 - Tyrod - I've been accused of being in the COT and I joking go along with it. I like TT. I want him to succeed. I want all of our players to succeed and once I know they are who we are going with, I will root for them. I don't understand bashing your QB when he's your answer right now. Go with it or be miserable I think. With that, I think he took less to come back because his agent found a dry market out there. To take this deal means he's willing to bet on himself and I like that. Losing Watkins for him is a concern, but I think they got him another deep threat with Jones and a deep threat doesn't require a lot of skill. TT's first TD bomb was to Harvin, so he can make that work with anyone. The hard thing for TT this year is that I feel like he's as good as gone next year. I just don't see him lighting it up with all 1st year receivers in this system. Same reason I think Kirk Cousins will have a rough year in losing all of his familiar weapons. I think TT will give us an average year and then we use our picks to get a QB. I'm not saying I agree or disagree, I just think there's too much to overcome for him. With that, if this is a rebuild, then I'd be curious to know what trade options are out there for him now. If Denver offers me a 3rd rounder, I think we have to listen.

 

3 - Shady/Kyle, signed FA's - I really worry about the message that was sent with this trade today. Whether you are for or against it, you have to agree that our talent level decreased today. Both players traded away are better combined than what we received. Yes, we got draft picks, but that's for next year. So the only message I can take from this is that we are in the middle of a plan to get better over time. And that's completely fine. However, I wonder if this plan was made clear to players we just brought on. I wonder what Shady thinks about going through a re-build of sorts? I wonder how Kyle feels about going through ANOTHER rebuild as he edges closer to retirement? At the end of the day, they are professionals who get paid millions. But I think the faith, dedication, and buy-in to the program also goes a long way to what we see on the field as well as future players wanting to sign here.

 

And maybe we aren't done. Is it worth trading a massive Dareus contract and eat the dead money this year and next so we can be free of it when this rebuild is done? I'm not saying yes or no. But if I'm a player drafted or brought in by the old regime, I don't know how you feel safe.

 

4. Standing here

The old man said to me
Long before these crowded streets
Here stood my dreaming tree

 

5 - Drafts aren't 100% and we aren't alone next year - I agree with the method of building through the draft and not relying on FA. In a salary cap world and players having an average playing career of under 4 years, you need to be able to cycle through talent. However, not all picks in the top 3 rounds are homeruns and not all drafts are equal in talent. Just because we have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds doesn't mean that we are going to nail all 6 picks. Just because it's considered to be a good qb draft class, doesn't mean they will hold up until next year. And worst of all, even if we only win 4 games next year, there are other qb hungry teams that may lose less (cough Jets). Even with all the trade ammo we have; if we are picking 4th and the three teams ahead of us need a QB, why would they trade us? If the Bills had the first pick and a Andrew Luck type QB is available, there isn't any package of picks that will make me pass on him. This is my biggest fear. We will need a QB, RT, and multiple LB's, S, and DB's to fit this new scheme. What if those guys just aren't there in the draft talent wise? Do we just trade back and kick the can to the next year? And even if they are available, how long does it take for these guys to contribute and compete at a playoff year. Best Case Scenario is what the Raiders did 4 years ago. But that's 4 more years of this.

 

6 - The Pegulas - The thing I learned today is that our owners are not getting in the way. I've read quite a few things about them meddling or giving uninformed input. For the trades to occur like they did with the talent involved, I think it's clear that Beane and McDermott have the keys and are in full control. For this, I am pleased. Not because those two have earned the right to make these decisions, but because we've empowered them and put faith in who we gave the keys to.

 

7 - Sammy - I have a Sammy Jersey and I think that he has the size, skills, and ability to be a top 3 WR. He has the best route running ability and hands I've seen in a very long time. With that being said, what you leave on the field is what matters. Unless he played all 16 games this year and put up 1200+ yards with 8+ TD's, I would have been hesitant to give him the contract he would've earned in FA. I love the kid and hate to see him. I feel really bad about him playing with Goff in a contract year. I don't think we were going to get a 1st rounder for him and I don't see him pulling off the season I needed to see for him to get that contract from us comfortably. With that, the end result sucks and we are probably a worse team this year without him, but the smart bet was getting value for him.

 

8 - Darby - I also really liked Darby and don't see how a corner of his ability can't fit into our scheme. His contract was small and we had him locked up for 2 more years. I'm going to choose to have faith that McDermott really saw something that wasn't going to work in his scheme or the value in obtaining Matthews and a 3rd was too great. The problem is, if we don't resign Matthews, then this was all for a 3rd and I just don't see that as a good trade for a very good DB that finished 2nd in DROY the other year.

 

On the flip side, Gaines is nowhere near the player Darby is. And Wright got torched constantly in Baltimore. He even had a nickname for it.

 

9 - The Fans - I feel really bad for the season ticket holders like my father this year. It was already a tough sell for the season with all the changes. And like many fans, my family can't attend all the games. He still needs to sell the December games, which is always tough since we are usually out of the playoffs by then. But we do have some nice early season hype that helps sell those tickets. After today, right or wrong, I think a lot of people are sold on this being a rebuild. I think that's a message that wasn't clear until today and the tickets are already sold.

 

While rebuilds are necessary, you can't blame so many of the fans that don't have faith in a rebuild here after 17 years of futility trying to do it.

 

10 - Today's Trade Value - When you look at a trade, you have to look at the present and future. In the immediate present, we are a less talented football team. I don't think anyone is arguing that. At the end of the season, we may lose both players to FA and are left with a 2nd and 3rd round pick and without a 6th round pick. Will those two picks result in players better than Sammy and Darby? Who knows? If those picks are used in trades to get a potential franchise QB? Who knows? Will that QB actually be a franchise QB? Who knows?

 

End of the day, we are clearly focusing on the future, the scheme that McDermott wants to run, and everything before they were hired is up for grabs. It's hard to go through this for everyone and you have to respect both the negative and positive reactions. I'm torn on having to go through it all again. Even if we are in position to get Darnold next year, who is to say he'll be available for us, he'll be a franchise guy, or that he'll still be that great come draft time? Remember Jake Locker and all the other #1 QB's going into the college year only to have them completely fall off in production? This is a lot of "What If's" and a lot of faith to put into a first time coach and GM. But we all share the same goal of turning this thing around. I look forward to seeing how it goes.

 

Go Bills.

Edited August 11, 2017 by Virgil

[aristocrat]

We still have the top run game in the league. We still have a better wr corps than last year and we won 7 games. Whether or not we are a much better team this year will come down to how coach mcd coaches up this defense. People really are forgetting how bad that defense was last year

 

 

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[JM2009]

We still have the top run game in the league. We still have a better wr corps than last year and we won 7 games. Whether or not we are a much better team this year will come down to how coach mcd coaches up this defense. People really are forgetting how bad that defense was last year Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We really don't know anything yet. I was 8-8 but down to 6-10 after today.

[aristocrat]

 

We still have the top run game in the league. We still have a better wr corps than last year and we won 7 games. Whether or not we are a much better team this year will come down to how coach mcd coaches up this defense. People really are forgetting how bad that defense was last year Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

We really don't know anything yet. I was 8-8 but down to 6-10 after today.

 

I'm at 7 wins still. 4-2 in division still. If mcd gets this defense on point like 10th it's 9 wins, 8th 10 wins, 5th 11 wins. I don't think going from 18th to 10 is that difficult just changing schemes but I'm waiting.

 

 

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[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Most if not all Bears fans hated Cutler because they knew he was not the answer to take them deep into the playoffs. It's the same here with Taylor, everyone knows he is not the answer to take this team to a playoff game. I don't hope Taylor plays bad but two years of Bills games on DVR does not give me a ton of hope with him as our QB going into this season.

 

I think we only win 1 game going into the Bye and that would be our home game vs the Jets. We have a very good shot at having a top 3 pick in 2018 with a ton of draft picks.

[Big C]

We still have the top run game in the league. We still have a better wr corps than last year and we won 7 games. Whether or not we are a much better team this year will come down to how coach mcd coaches up this defense. People really are forgetting how bad that defense was last yearSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agreed. Maybe overall talent went down, but production won't necessarily. Matthews has been consistent and Gaines is a question mark but has shown in the past he could play.

 

I also think the Watkins trade comes down to his place on the team and in the locker room. He did not embrace the team, was not a leader and his production was spotty due to injury. He also clearly lacked toughness out there and it has nothing to do with the foot.

 

If Sammy came out and balled and we ponied up and paid him huge money we could have had another Dareus type contract on our hands. And too much money tied up in too few guys that aren't elevating the whole team would cripple us for much longer than this one season.

 

If we had traded TT, Shady, Kyle or Wood for example I would be thinking total rebuild, as those are the guys I consider the faces of our franchise.

[Virgil]

We still have the top run game in the league. We still have a better wr corps than last year and we won 7 games. Whether or not we are a much better team this year will come down to how coach mcd coaches up this defense. People really are forgetting how bad that defense was last year Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I think our run game will be good, but it's going to be different with a new offensive coordinator. Even if it's the same as last year, we still only won 7 games.

 

I agree with parts of our defense being better. I think our pass rush will be better, but our LB's scare me a lot. If we don't get to the QB, I worry about underneath coverage, getting to the outside, and the deep ball.

Agreed. Maybe overall talent went down, but production won't necessarily. Matthews has been consistent and Gaines is a question mark but has shown in the past he could play.

 

I also think the Watkins trade comes down to his place on the team and in the locker room. He did not embrace the team, was not a leader and his production was spotty due to injury. He also clearly lacked toughness out there and it has nothing to do with the foot.

 

If Sammy came out and balled and we ponied up and paid him huge money we could have had another Dareus type contract on our hands. And too much money tied up in too few guys that aren't elevating the whole team would cripple us for much longer than this one season.

 

If we had traded TT, Shady, Kyle or Wood for example I would be thinking total rebuild, as those are the guys I consider the faces of our franchise.

 

You aren't wrong. I think a 7 win team with less talent, new scheme, and harder schedule isn't far fetched for 4-6 wins

[mead107]

Sammy is a part time player. Glad we got something for him. Did we really drop in talent? I don't think so. 9 wins. Glad I am a season ticket holder.

[Buddy Hix]

"Who knows?" pretty much captures the mood I am in when it comes to this team. I tend to fluctuate from "this drought can't go on forever" to " this team is cursed and will never see a playoff game again"....but since the changes earlier this year I kind of haven't cared as much and am content to just sit back and wait.

 

I will say that I have more confidence in the Beane/McD regime than most of the drought front offices despite our new guys being first timers in each position. I liked the trades because I couldn't see this team winning more than 8 games and I would rather win 4 and stock up on higher draft picks.

 

Thanks for the write up.

 

Go Bills

[Perk71]

9-10 wins this year!

[WMDman]

not convinced this is a rebuild