TheElectricCompany Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 (edited) I don't think it's as simple as targets, that be nice if it was. Hoping he is both available and consistent this year, it's now or never if he wants that check. Too many vanishing acts by him over the past 2 years. Some of it is injury, some of it is scheme, but some of it is on him and his abilities. Edited July 24, 2017 by TheElectricCompany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 I don't think it's as simple as targets, that be nice if it was. Hoping he is both available and consistent this year, it's now or never if he wants that check. Too many vanishing acts by him over the past 2 years. Some of it is injury, some of it is scheme, but some of it is on him and his abilities. Denver had 100 more PA's than buffalo last year, and we rushed a bit more than them. I think the balance will swing above the 50-50 rush/pass of the last 2 years, as hopefully less runs = more plays on offense. Maybe somewhere like 55/45 pass to run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsmovinup Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Oh, and as to Andre Reed, he played in 6 more games than Sammy in his first 3 seasons, and had the benefit of playing with a HOF QB. Guess whose numbers are better over their first 3 seasons? Your comparing numbers between players whose careers are 30 years apart? Now its really gotten ridiculous. Totally different game in the 80's. Qbs threw for far less yards back then. Wrs caught far fewer balls. In 1988 there were two teams that threw for 4000 yards or more. In 2016 it was thirteen teams. Totally different eras. Todays stats are vastly inflated. The only thing your proving right now is how little you really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Your comparing numbers between players whose careers are 30 years apart? Now its really gotten ridiculous. Totally different game in the 80's. Qbs threw for far less yards back then. Wrs caught far fewer balls. In 1988 there were two teams that threw for 4000 yards or more. In 2016 it was thirteen teams. Totally different eras. Todays stats are vastly inflated. The only thing your proving right now is how little you really know. You really know how to walk into a trap, don't you? YOU made the original comparison between Reed and Watkins. Doesn't it make sense that if QBs threw less, WRs caught fewer balls, and passing in general was less prolific, a WR like Reed would play a higher percentage of his games than a guy like Watkins? Thanks for proving my point, and thanks once again for not taking issue with a single fact-based argument. You and I are definitely done here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Denver had 100 more PA's than buffalo last year, and we rushed a bit more than them. I think the balance will swing above the 50-50 rush/pass of the last 2 years, as hopefully less runs = more plays on offense. Maybe somewhere like 55/45 pass to run? Great question, but I'm not privy to what mix makes us the most productive. I know we have the makings of an another top notch run game, and that should create very choice play action opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsmovinup Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 (edited) You really know how to walk into a trap, don't you? YOU made the original comparison between Reed and Watkins. Doesn't it make sense that if QBs threw less, WRs caught fewer balls, and passing in general was less prolific, a WR like Reed would play a higher percentage of his games than a guy like Watkins? Thanks for proving my point, and thanks once again for not taking issue with a single fact-based argument. You and I are definitely done here. You compared numbers. Not me. My only point is Andre was on the field most of the time. He was also a different player running far more routes over the middle than Watkins does. Apparently thats just too complex of a concept for you. Tough players play through pain and are productive. Soft players dont. Glass Watkins is the later. Andre is the former. Run along now. Take your ball and go home. Revel in 17 years of no playoffs. Its a streak right? Some people want to win. Your happy with below average and nobody will convince you otherwise. Edited July 24, 2017 by Billsmovinup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 You compared numbers. Not me. My only point is Andre was on the field most of the time. He was also a different player running far more routes over the middle than Watkins does. Apparently thats just too complex of a concept for you. Tough players play through pain and are productive. Soft players dont. Glass Watkins is the later. Andre is the former. Run along now. Take your ball and go home. Revel in 17 years of no playoffs. Its a streak right? Some people want to win. Your happy with below average and nobody will convince you otherwise. You're wrong again. I've posted Watkins route distribution on this page before, but once more can't hurt: http://www.thebackya...is-ceiling.html According to the above, in 2015... 23.5% of his routes were fly patterns 50.4% of his routes were inward-breaking 26.1% of his routes were outward-breaking I also see that you're back to making straw-man arguments. I have no clue how you can draw any conclusion that I'm happy with 17 years of no playoffs based on the fact that I won't let you get away with making false statements about Sammy Watkins. Then again, I don't know how folks like yourself can get your vs. you're wrong every single time either As to tough players playing through pain, imagine if Sammy was the most productive receiver in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015 while playing on a broken foot...that'd really be something #factsoverfeelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Bomb Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 So what will Sammy injure this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Best case - the DBs ankles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billz4life820 Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 (edited) I don't think it's as simple as targets, that be nice if it was. Hoping he is both available and consistent this year, it's now or never if he wants that check. Too many vanishing acts by him over the past 2 years. Some of it is injury, some of it is scheme, but some of it is on him and his abilities. When has he ever vanished from games because of his abilities? Does running wide open every play in the season opener against the Ravens but not being thrown too count as vanishing? Everytime he has been the focal point of the offense he dominates You compared numbers. Not me. My only point is Andre was on the field most of the time. He was also a different player running far more routes over the middle than Watkins does. Apparently thats just too complex of a concept for you. Tough players play through pain and are productive. Soft players dont. Glass Watkins is the later. Andre is the former. Run along now. Take your ball and go home. Revel in 17 years of no playoffs. Its a streak right? Some people want to win. Your happy with below average and nobody will convince you otherwise. dude just give it up... its obvious you have an emotional vendetta against watkins Edited July 24, 2017 by billz4life820 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 (edited) When has he ever vanished from games because of his abilities? Does running wide open every play in the season opener against the Ravens but not being thrown too count as vanishing? Everytime he has been the focal point of the offense he dominates There were numerous games in the past three years where his production was minimal, or non existent. Scheme does play a role in the production, but not 100%, that's all I'm saying. How much of a role scheme plays on production is tough to define, I'd say 75% is ability, 25% scheme... Edited July 24, 2017 by TheElectricCompany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsmovinup Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 When has he ever vanished from games because of his abilities? Does running wide open every play in the season opener against the Ravens but not being thrown too count as vanishing? Everytime he has been the focal point of the offense he dominates dude just give it up... its obvious you have an emotional vendetta against watkins The standard koolaid response. At least you guys are consistent. If you dont kiss the Bills asses on a regular basis on this site you have an agenda if some sort. When has he ever vanished from games because of his abilities? Does running wide open every play in the season opener against the Ravens but not being thrown too count as vanishing? Everytime he has been the focal point of the offense he dominate. He was wide open on every play? And the Bills just chose to ignore him. Could have won the game by fifty if they had just thrown the ball to Sammy on every down. Lmfao at that one. Delusional just took on a whole new meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight Hucklebuck Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Sammy has been gimping through injuries since he arrived. I'm not expecting much from him this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Best case - the DBs ankles. I like your style The standard koolaid response. At least you guys are consistent. If you dont kiss the Bills asses on a regular basis on this site you have an agenda if some sort. He was wide open on every play? And the Bills just chose to ignore him. Could have won the game by fifty if they had just thrown the ball to Sammy on every down. Lmfao at that one. Delusional just took on a whole new meaning. I am disappointed you make these dialogues personal. Even if you were correct, it is in bad form to to group folks, and even worse to group them in a negative light. Kind of puts you on an Island and leaves you open for being ostracized by the Folks you are chatting with. I am quite sure you can do better with some patience and deep breathing, like I do. Sammy has plenty to prove this year. Much like Tyrod. I am fine with hoping both players are able to reset and connect after The Rex Factor. Have hope friends all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 You're wrong again. I've posted Watkins route distribution on this page before, but once more can't hurt: http://www.thebackya...is-ceiling.html According to the above, in 2015... 23.5% of his routes were fly patterns 50.4% of his routes were inward-breaking 26.1% of his routes were outward-breaking I also see that you're back to making straw-man arguments. I have no clue how you can draw any conclusion that I'm happy with 17 years of no playoffs based on the fact that I won't let you get away with making false statements about Sammy Watkins. Then again, I don't know how folks like yourself can get your vs. you're wrong every single time either As to tough players playing through pain, imagine if Sammy was the most productive receiver in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015 while playing on a broken foot...that'd really be something #factsoverfeelings I'm curious where Watkins stands in term of percentage of passes thrown his way, when he's on the field. In other words, we know that he receives fewer targets than (to use your examples) Julio Jones, or OBJ. But, we also know that TT has thrown the ball far less than Eli Manning, or Matt Ryan. But, it still seems to me that he gets a low percentage of those throws, relatively. Or, it might just be me screaming at the TV, "throw it to Sammy, FFS!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 So what will Sammy injure this season? The feelings of some fans with some meaningless comment on Social Media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8-8 Forever? Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 (edited) People are funny. Folks have no trouble trusting that he'll miss significant time despite the fact that he started 29 of a possible 32 games prior to last season. How about we apply "I'll believe it when I see it" to ALL scenarios, since it's all speculation at this point? he's a heck of a talent, I just want to see what a 16 game Sammy season looks like with a QB that can get him the ball. that would be fun to see. get your popcorn, hopefully Edited July 25, 2017 by jmcraig44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 So what will Sammy injure this season? Hopefully his Twitter thumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 (edited) I'm curious where Watkins stands in term of percentage of passes thrown his way, when he's on the field. In other words, we know that he receives fewer targets than (to use your examples) Julio Jones, or OBJ. But, we also know that TT has thrown the ball far less than Eli Manning, or Matt Ryan. But, it still seems to me that he gets a low percentage of those throws, relatively. Or, it might just be me screaming at the TV, "throw it to Sammy, FFS!!!" Really, really intelligent question Rocky. Bravo for adding some meat to the discussion I don't know that I've done this exact deep dive before, so I'll hash it out a bit. I have a few sources for this, but the easiest for comparison's sake is an NFL.com piece on the 2015 season: http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000693785/article/wide-receiver-target-distribution-for-all-32-teams The best source, IMO, is Player Profiler, which shows each WR's rank in terms of target share and HOG rate (which shows a player's percentage of targets per snap): https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/sammy-watkins/#/current-year ^ the downside is that you have to search player-by-player Here's what we can glean: 2015 Opportunity Numbers Sammy ranked 42nd in snap share, 35th overall in targets, 11th in target share, and 31st in targets/snap played Beckham ranked 1st, 7th, 10th, and 14th (respectively) in those same categories Julio ranked 29th, 1st, 2nd, and 1st Antonio Brown ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 6th Mike Evans ranked 34th, 10th, 5th, and 7th 2015 Production Numbers Sammy ranked 36th in receptions, 19th in yards, 9th in air yards, 11th in TDs, 1st in yards/target, and 40th in catch rate Beckham ranked 8th, 5th, 10th, 4th, 19th, and 51st (respectively) in those same categories Julio ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd, 11th, 19th, and 26th Antonio ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 7th, 13th, and 11th Evans ranked 21st, 11th, 7th, 59th, 40th, and 95th As we can see, there's a direct correlation between target rank and rank in both receptions and yards. Now, it's also worth noting that (from the NFL article linked above) Sammy's target share increased to 32% from weeks 9 to 17 of the season--a rate that would've trailed only Julio Jones for target percentage. Not coincidentally, their numbers during that period look like this: Player---Targets----Rec----Yds---TDs---Catch %---TDs Jones------101-------66-----979-----2-------65-----------2 Watkins-----70-------49-----900-----7-------70-----------7 http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/ So, to sum up: Watkins' massive increase in target share in the final 9 games of 2015 is the only reason he's even in the same vicinity as the other WRs in terms of opportunities, and as the numbers show, he routinely does more with his opportunities than the others. Edited July 25, 2017 by thebandit27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsmovinup Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 (edited) Really, really intelligent question Rocky. Bravo for adding some meat to the discussion I don't know that I've done this exact deep dive before, so I'll hash it out a bit. I have a few sources for this, but the easiest for comparison's sake is an NFL.com piece on the 2015 season: http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000693785/article/wide-receiver-target-distribution-for-all-32-teams The best source, IMO, is Player Profiler, which shows each WR's rank in terms of target share and HOG rate (which shows a player's percentage of targets per snap): https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/sammy-watkins/#/current-year ^ the downside is that you have to search player-by-player Here's what we can glean: 2015 Opportunity Numbers Sammy ranked 42nd in snap share, 35th overall in targets, 11th in target share, and 31st in targets/snap played Beckham ranked 1st, 7th, 10th, and 14th (respectively) in those same categories Julio ranked 29th, 1st, 2nd, and 1st Antonio Brown ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 6th Mike Evans ranked 34th, 10th, 5th, and 7th 2015 Production Numbers Sammy ranked 36th in receptions, 19th in yards, 9th in air yards, 11th in TDs, 1st in yards/target, and 40th in catch rate Beckham ranked 8th, 5th, 10th, 4th, 19th, and 51st (respectively) in those same categories Julio ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd, 11th, 19th, and 26th Antonio ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 7th, 13th, and 11th Evans ranked 21st, 11th, 7th, 59th, 40th, and 95th As we can see, there's a direct correlation between target rank and rank in both receptions and yards. Now, it's also worth noting that (from the NFL article linked above) Sammy's target share increased to 32% from weeks 9 to 17 of the season--a rate that would've trailed only Julio Jones for target percentage. Not coincidentally, their numbers during that period look like this: Player---Targets----Rec----Yds---TDs---Catch %---TDs Jones------101-------66-----979-----2-------65-----------2 Watkins-----70-------49-----900-----7-------70-----------7 http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/ So, to sum up: Watkins' massive increase in target share in the final 9 games of 2015 is the only reason he's even in the same vicinity as the other WRs in terms of opportunities, and as the numbers show, he routinely does more with his opportunities than the others. How did he do in 2016 when he missed half the year with an injury? If your going to analyze his performance just dont cherry pick seasons. Lets look at the big picture. Throw 2014 in there also. I could look at JP Losmans game against Houston and conclude hes a perenial pro bowler. Also explain why the Bills didnt pick up his fifth year. Cant wait to hear that one. Edited July 25, 2017 by Billsmovinup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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