QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[Shaw66]

 

Shaw,

If YAC means the QB hits his guy in stride beyond the LOS then yes, IMO it is meaningful.

 

If YAC means the QB hits his guy behind the LOS and then runs 5 or 6 yards for a 2 or 3 yard net gain then no, it is not as meaningful.

 

To reiterate from observations Taylor's YAC may be low because he waits for the guy to stop and turn before he delivers the ball.

 

Praising TT for having Great Stats is all well and fine. Just don't hide some situational stats there he doesn't shine and say it doesn't matter.

 

This is season 3 in Buffalo 6 going on 7 season in the league. This is his year to step it up or step away.

Who doesn't want to see our QB throwing guys open?

What I'm saying is that stat may be helpful to coaches who discover an aspect of his game that requires improvement. It isn't particularly helpful in deciding whether he's a good quarterback, because EVERY quarterback has some details in his game that are worse than some other details.

 

That's why I keep saying that all this data that Fahey has collected doesn't amount to a whole lot in a debate about Tyrod's value as a long-term solution. His passer rating matters. If his passer rating is in the top 10, I don't care if he's last in the league in YAC. I mean, I care in the sense that I'd always like my QB to get better, but I don't care if I'm in a discussion about whether to keep Taylor. If Taylor's passer rating is in the top 10, I'm keeping him, whatever his YAC is. And if his passer rating is in the bottom third, I'm NOT keeping him, no matter how GOOD his YAC is.

 

Detailed data like this doesn't determine the value of a QB.

[Rochesterfan]

To get the most out of raw data its important to understand how misleading some of it can be in my humble opinion transplantbillsfan.

 

Rochester brought up an important point I think in evaluating QB's and I believe it goes hand in hand with how well a signal caller is seeing the football field. Scoring how well a QB can determine the most lucrative place to go with the football would show you what QB is playing at the highest level IMO. Eye test tells me Matt Ryan is probably near or on the top of the list (2016) when it comes to attacking the football field with big play capabilities IMO. (Julio Jones might have something to do with it.)

 

Myself personally, I've grown to trust Rochesterfans opinions/post because of how much thought and research goes into them.

 

I'm not saying he's always correct...

 

I am not always correct and thank you for the kind words.

 

There are many things that sites like PFF and Fahey put together that is amazing work and should be appreciated and could not be done in the past, but even they acknowledge that many times they are just numbers and more understanding is needed to see how they fit.

 

Fahey rightly points out many positive things that TT does well and TT overall numbers fall in an above average location and even on the old BBMB - Shaw would point out many positive things like TT passing rating in 2015 and all of those things are part of a bigger picture.

 

The next question becomes can he take another step and make the plays that are needed to win games or does he become like Colin Kaepernick a limited success guy that as more was added to his plate shrank back.

[transplantbillsfan]

The question is what do they mean - he admits he is subjective on decisions and he really has to be. He puts together a series of numbers to make rankings, but the rankings are still not definitive because the game of football is more complex than baseball or basketball. Baseball you can look at an individual pitchers numbers and get a relative feeling of how he is doing - things like K/innings pitched give a pretty balanced picture of the QB.

 

His numbers tell you that TT is accurate and safe in the throws he chooses to make and that is correct. They also tell you that he is less accurate closer to the LOS and that he threw few screens and slants as those are quick short throws and he drops way off on those throws under 10 yards or at and behind the LOS.

 

What the percentage numbers do not tell is was he good or not. They suggest he is accurate and safe, but the coaches suggest he did not do enough in the passing game. The state that there were plays to be made in the passing game - suggesting that although Fahey states he completed a high percentage of passes that maybe he was not reading the play correctly or he did not follow the progression and made a safe throw.

 

I'm not saying and I don't think Fahey is saying the numbers are definitive.

 

And despite saying you're not dismissive, you're still pretty dug in your foxhole and don't seem willing to acknowledge the merits of what he finds. And I don't think you're wrong about everything you say. In Fahey's "shorthand skill set," which is a box at the beginning of every QBs chapter that involves 4-6 bullet points of strengths and weaknesses of the player, 2 of Taylor's weaknesses in that box include:

 

-Avoids tight windows over the middle of the field.

-Not an anticipation passer.

 

 

All I did was provide numbers, but Fahey's chapters more anecdotally explain each QB. Granted, he feels strongly positive about Taylor, but he talks about weaknesses, too. And he talks about specific plays from specific games like the Seattle game, the Raiders game, the first Phins game, and the Cardinals game, among others.

 

You keep bringing up what the coaches said as though it was incredibly damning and irrefutable evidence that Taylor's holding the team back. It's just funny to me because sometimes people label what coaches say as truth and sometimes they label it as coachspeak. I'm sure there's truth to what they said, but you stated the other day that you think the best thing that could happen this offseason would be for Peterman to show real promise in TC and win the starting job.

 

It's just a weird position and just shows how dug in you are about Taylor. Why would you not, instead, wish that in Dennison's new offense, Taylor would demonstrate how much he can thrive? That seems a lot more realistic.

 

People are just so damn dug into their positions that once they like or dislike a guy they NEED him to stay or be gone.

[jumbalaya]

So it is great to break a QB ranking solely based on stats of passes thrown, completed, dropped, intercepted, dropped interceptions etc. It provides a glimpse into his ability.

 

But I think what most of us think of Tyrod's play is not the passes thrown but of open receiver's not thrown to so he ran, covered receivers not thrown to who may have made a play, open receivers not thrown to but he checked down to a back. That is where the criticism is. Most of us could have lived with a few more INT's if offset by more TD's and first downs.

 

A feared passing attack would have made our running game stronger.

[mannc]

So it is great to break a QB ranking solely based on stats of passes thrown, completed, dropped, intercepted, dropped interceptions etc. It provides a glimpse into his ability.

 

But I think what most of us think of Tyrod's play is not the passes thrown but of open receiver's not thrown to so he ran, covered receivers not thrown to who may have made a play, open receivers not thrown to but he checked down to a back. That is where the criticism is. Most of us could have lived with a few more INT's if offset by more TD's and first downs.

 

A feared passing attack would have made our running game stronger.

We would all love to have seen Tyrod throw for more TDs, but none of the above is based on anything other than anecdotal evidence. Unless you watched an entire season of all-22s, you can't possibly know how many open receivers Tryod did not throw to, and even then it would be highly subjective. And unless you watched all-22s for all 32 teams, you would not know how many open receivers other teams' QB failed to throw to, and you would need that information to make a fair evaluation of Tyrod in those areas, right?. I've got news for you though: Every QB in the league misses lots of open guys every game. All we have to go on is the statistics that are available, and they show that Tryod was actually pretty good.

[HappyDays]

We would all love to have seen Tyrod throw for more TDs, but none of the above is based on anything other than anecdotal evidence. Unless you watched an entire season of all-22s, you can't possibly know how many open receivers Tryod did not throw to, and even then it would be highly subjective. And unless you watched all-22s for all 32 teams, you would not know how many open receivers other teams' QB failed to throw to, and you would need that information to make a fair evaluation of Tyrod in those areas, right?. I've got news for you though: Every QB in the league misses lots of open guys every game. All we have to go on is the statistics that are available, and they show that Tryod was actually pretty good.

You know what might be interesting - and I don't have time for this myself or I would - is to take every "avoidable sack" and turn it into an incompletion. Do that for all QBs and see where their passer ratings end up. That might be as close as we can get to measuring something like you're talking about here.

[Big Gun]

We would all love to have seen Tyrod throw for more TDs, but none of the above is based on anything other than anecdotal evidence. Unless you watched an entire season of all-22s, you can't possibly know how many open receivers Tryod did not throw to, and even then it would be highly subjective. And unless you watched all-22s for all 32 teams, you would not know how many open receivers other teams' QB failed to throw to, and you would need that information to make a fair evaluation of Tyrod in those areas, right?. I've got news for you though: Every QB in the league misses lots of open guys every game. All we have to go on is the statistics that are available, and they show that Tryod was actually pretty good.

I guess so if you consider, what 30th, 31st, 29th or whatever it was in passing as good. Like you said, just going by stats right!

[Deadstroke]

In god we trust

All others must pay in cash!

[mannc]

I guess so if you consider, what 30th, 31st, 29th or whatever it was in passing as good. Like you said, just going by stats right!

Yep, if you are foolish enough to believe that total yards is the best way to evaluate a QB.

[Rochesterfan]

 

I'm not saying and I don't think Fahey is saying the numbers are definitive.

 

And despite saying you're not dismissive, you're still pretty dug in your foxhole and don't seem willing to acknowledge the merits of what he finds. And I don't think you're wrong about everything you say. In Fahey's "shorthand skill set," which is a box at the beginning of every QBs chapter that involves 4-6 bullet points of strengths and weaknesses of the player, 2 of Taylor's weaknesses in that box include:

 

-Avoids tight windows over the middle of the field.

-Not an anticipation passer.

 

 

All I did was provide numbers, but Fahey's chapters more anecdotally explain each QB. Granted, he feels strongly positive about Taylor, but he talks about weaknesses, too. And he talks about specific plays from specific games like the Seattle game, the Raiders game, the first Phins game, and the Cardinals game, among others.

 

You keep bringing up what the coaches said as though it was incredibly damning and irrefutable evidence that Taylor's holding the team back. It's just funny to me because sometimes people label what coaches say as truth and sometimes they label it as coachspeak. I'm sure there's truth to what they said, but you stated the other day that you think the best thing that could happen this offseason would be for Peterman to show real promise in TC and win the starting job.

 

It's just a weird position and just shows how dug in you are about Taylor. Why would you not, instead, wish that in Dennison's new offense, Taylor would demonstrate how much he can thrive? That seems a lot more realistic.

 

People are just so damn dug into their positions that once they like or dislike a guy they NEED him to stay or be gone.

 

 

I think you need to go back and look at my statements and stop trying to lump me into something I am not.

 

I have repeatedly stated that I thought TT would win the QB job - even if they have a competition. I am not convinced he will end the year as a starter because I do not anticipate with the potential schedule and the number of higher level QBs (yes better than TT even if some of the numbers are not as lofty) that we face that 2017 is going to be a good year. Hopefully I am wrong, but I see 5-6 wins - unless something really changes in the next couple of months. Therefore I would not be surprised to see them look at other potential candidates on the roster.

 

I have also stated - I think TT biggest challenge will be whatever QB they decide to draft early next year.

 

I would love to see an true open competition (ala Seattle) to see what Peterman has and allow him and TT (and Yates and Cardale) to really shoot it out to see who truly is the best fit, but I think McDermott would prefer a veteran and a guy that is safe and that describes TT.

 

As to your coach speak - I understand, but typically coach speak is more generic and things like "I will have a competition at every position" when you know a guy like Dareus is going to start. Most of the time coaches (HC or OCs) do not pile on about a players negatives.

 

Finally again - I have repeatedly stated that we will see what TT has to offer in this offense - I do not expect a lot of improvement because he has to this point not demonstrated an ability to quickly read and digest a play and make throws quickly, but he is very athletic and maybe a good fit for Dennison's offense.

 

If you are going to mis-represent me at least get something close, but it is obvious that you think you know what I think without actually reading my comments.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

If you are going to mis-represent me at least get something close, but it is obvious that you think you know what I think without actually reading my comments.

 

Hmmm... seems a familiar sentiment

[Big Gun]

Yep, if you are foolish enough to believe that total yards is the best way to evaluate a QB.

Whatever, you said evaluate by stats, since those stats don't paint the right picture for you, you dismiss them.

[transplantbillsfan]

Whatever, you said evaluate by stats, since those stats don't paint the right picture for you, you dismiss them.

 

Stats matter. But every single stat needs to be taken in the correct context.

[mannc]

Whatever, you said evaluate by stats, since those stats don't paint the right picture for you, you dismiss them.

According your measurement, in 2016, Blake Bortles was a better quarterback than Prescott, Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Mariota (among others). See how that works? Edited May 4, 2017 by mannc

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

What I'm saying is that stat may be helpful to coaches who discover an aspect of his game that requires improvement. It isn't particularly helpful in deciding whether he's a good quarterback, because EVERY quarterback has some details in his game that are worse than some other details.

 

That's why I keep saying that all this data that Fahey has collected doesn't amount to a whole lot in a debate about Tyrod's value as a long-term solution. His passer rating matters. If his passer rating is in the top 10, I don't care if he's last in the league in YAC. I mean, I care in the sense that I'd always like my QB to get better, but I don't care if I'm in a discussion about whether to keep Taylor. If Taylor's passer rating is in the top 10, I'm keeping him, whatever his YAC is. And if his passer rating is in the bottom third, I'm NOT keeping him, no matter how GOOD his YAC is.

 

Detailed data like this doesn't determine the value of a QB.

We are in agreement at the start and the end.

 

Do passer ratings matter, sure, but more so IMO in the 4th QTR. I believe I read (numerous places) that TT's 4th QRT ratings (65.8) are much poorer than the other portions of his game.

 

I've also see it where it claims he has the best rating of 117.

 

The other issue that people seem to care about is Taylor has 1 fourth-quarter comeback in 7 games down by 7 (=/-1pt) Two if you count being tied at the start of the 4th. The one time was against the Titans (that happened to be a bad team).

 

In general conversation -

Not sure if rumblings is a good place to cite...

With the game on the line, Taylor has a horrid quarterback rating of 0.0 (that isn’t a typo). He’s completed only 3 of 10 throws for 26 yards along with an interception.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/10/24/12862326/tyrod-taylor-late-game-situations-will-we-ever-see-tyrod-taylor-s-clutch-gene

 

The other argument I've seen posted - missing his best guys.

 

Look elsewhere around the NFL. Phillip Rivers has been missing his two top receivers and is still in the top 5 in passing yardage. Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton were without their top weapons last season and still managed to be top-20 quarterbacks.

[Big Gun]

According your measurement, in 2016, Blake Bortles was a better quarterback than Prescott, Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Mariota (among others). See how that works?

Did you or did you not say "All we have to go on is the statistics that are available, and they show that Tryod was actually pretty good."

 

Most of his "statatistics" say otherwise. According to your measurement.

Edited May 4, 2017 by old school

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

According your measurement, in 2016, Blake Bortles was a better quarterback than Prescott, Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Mariota (among others). See how that works?

Add Osweiller to that group too.

[mannc]

Did you or did you not say "All we have to go on is the statistics that are available, and they show that Tryod was actually pretty good."

 

Most of his "statatistics" say otherwise. According to your measurement.

Wrong.

[Big Gun]

Wrong.

Lol, ok, cause I didn't cut and paste your quote from your #145 reply in this thread or nothing.

 

Whatever!

[Figster]

Lol, ok, cause I didn't cut and paste your quote from your #145 reply in this thread or nothing.

 

Whatever!

Look at it this way, these are not accurate numbers, but lets say by design Taylor made 200 pass attempts throughout the season and every other QB in the league threw by design 300 pass attempts or more. Do you see why it would be useless to use low totals as a knock againt Taylor in a QB evaluation when the OC/HC made the determination they were going to run the football more then any other team in the league.

 

High yardage totals with a high INT totals is also another thing fans need to take into consideration. How many yards, change of field position and points did the INT cost you? if you calculated it all up you might find out 200 yards passing and zero turnovers is better then 300yards passing and 1 or 2 INT's.

 

One stat or yardage total doesn't give you enough information...