Glennon to get $14-$15m / yr

[GunnerBill]

 

That's a great plan, but the odds are we won't get better at the QB spot.

 

You can do whatever you want to get younger, but the result of that is overwhelmingly likely to produce significantly worse QB play next year.

 

Just because you want a "QB of the future" doesn't mean it's even remotely likely of happening.

 

No but the point wouldn't just to be to get better in 2017 at the position. We all seem to think the Bills are up against it to make the playoffs next year... tying myself to Tyrod for 2 years doesn't strike me as really smart unless I think he can be the guy.

[jrober38]

 

No but the point wouldn't just to be to get better in 2017 at the position. We all seem to think the Bills are up against it to make the playoffs next year... tying myself to Tyrod for 2 years doesn't strike me as really smart unless I think he can be the guy.

 

Saying we're "tied" to Taylor for two years is a gross exaggeration.

 

We can cut him anytime and designate him a June 1st cut and clear 80% of his cap hit.

[jeffismagic]

 

Ugh. Letting a couple rookies compete with our 2016 third string QB isn't going to produce an upgrade at the position.

This plan combined with our schedule might legitimately result in the #1 pick in the 2018 draft. At that point you're probably looking for another QB.

 

And no, it's not more likely. The last 20 years of the NFL draft shows how incredibly hard it is to find a quality quarterback.

 

It's not easy, you are right. But the Bills make it harder by never drafting a QB. Only 2 picks in the first 2 rounds in the last 20 years. My plan is about changing that and increasing the search frequency.

 

We have a top ten pick this year with a good chance to land Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes according to a scout at the combine had the best arm he has seen since Favre. Will the Bills do what they did last year and trade a pick that was to be used on Dak for an inside linebacker move up?

[simpleman]

 

You think we'll win more games with a rookie (the consensus is that none of these rookies are ready to play) than with Taylor?

And what was the consensus last year about when Romo went down and Dak was going to start? We don't have a clue with a rookie till they actually play a regular season game or two.

[GunnerBill]

 

Saying we're "tied" to Taylor for two years is a gross exaggeration.

 

We can cut him anytime and designate him a June 1st cut and clear 80% of his cap hit.

 

You don't clear 80% of his cap hit by cutting him after the 2017 season but designating him as a post June cut. That is simply wrong. If they take Tyrod's option then all that guaranteed money $27.5m is payable. You can designate him as a post June cut and move most of that money to 2019 but it doesn't "clear". Eventually you have to account for it against the cap. So either it hurts your 2018 cap or it hurts your 2019 cap.

 

In a post June 1 2018 cut scenario you have still paid Tyrid $27.5m for 1 year, it is just you have spread that payment over 3 years of cap hit.

[jrober38]

 

It's not easy, you are right. But the Bills make it harder by never drafting a QB. Only 2 picks in the first 2 rounds in the last 20 years. My plan is about changing that and increasing the search frequency.

 

We have a top ten pick this year with a good chance to land Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes according to a scout at the combine had the best arm he has seen since Favre. Will the Bills do what they did last year and trade a pick that was to be used on Dak for an inside linebacker move up?

 

Our problem is that we draft the wrong QBs.

 

EJ Manuel was a 4th round prospect.

 

JP Losman was also severely flawed as a QB prospect.

 

Drafting a guy in the 1st round this year would be yet another mistake. They all have major flaws which is why none of them are a lock for the top 10 despite so many teams desperately needing QBs.

 

The Bills problem is that they blow way too many draft picks. We need to start hitting on our 1st and 2nd rounder or else the performance of this team is never going to improve significantly.

Edited March 6, 2017 by jrober38

[Wayne Cubed]

Yes and even with those players they will have cap room... that doesn't take into account the increase that will take place.

 

Picking up Tyrods option won't hamper the team much at all. People just B word because it's a 2 year commitment to a guy who's been slightly above average and pay grade is on par with that. Plus he's not Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady so get him out!

Who are these players and how much cap room will they take up?

[jrober38]

 

You don't clear 80% of his cap hit by cutting him after the 2017 season but designating him as a post June cut. That is simply wrong. If they take Tyrod's option then all that guaranteed money $27.5m is payable. You can designate him as a post June cut and move most of that money to 2019 but it doesn't "clear". Eventually you have to account for it against the cap. So either it hurts your 2018 cap or it hurts your 2019 cap.

 

In a post June 1 2018 cut scenario you have still paid Tyrid $27.5m for 1 year, it is just you have spread that payment over 3 years of cap hit.

 

The cap hit isn't going to hurt us. $4 mil/year in dead cap for a couple years does nothing to hurt us.

Yes he gets paid, but it's not like it's your money or my money so why should we care.

[jeffismagic]

 

Our problem is that we draft the wrong QBs.

 

EJ Manuel was a 4th round prospect.

 

JP Losman was also severely flawed as a QB prospect.

 

Drafting a guy in the 1st round this year would be yet another mistake. They all have major flaws which is why none of them are a lock for the top 10 despite so many teams desperately needing QBs.

 

The Bills problem is that they blow way too many draft picks. We need to start hitting on our 1st and 2nd rounder or else the performance of this team is never going to improve significantly.

Bills have passed on Derrick Carr, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and more.

 

I get your fear. But we can't just ignore the position every year.

[jrober38]

And what was the consensus last year about when Romo went down and Dak was going to start? We don't have a clue with a rookie till they actually play a regular season game or two.

 

Most rookie QBs are awful. The odds of there being another Dak Prescott are probably less than 5%.

 

When you take away the guys who go #1 overall, for the past 15 years QBs picked 2-32nd overall have busted more than 70% of the time.

 

That's the bet you're making when you pick a QB. I don't see why we'd take a guy when none of them are locks to go top 10.

Bills have passed on Derrick Carr, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and more.

 

I get your fear. But we can't just ignore the position every year.

 

Exactly.

 

We passed on Carr and Bridgewater because we were committed to EJ.

 

You don't draft a guy in the 1st round and send him to the glue factory after one year. That's not how the NFL works.

 

If you draft Trubisky, or Watson, or Kizer or whoever, and they suck this year (which is very likely), you're going to stick with them again next year and risk passing up on what could be signficantly better prospects.

Edited March 6, 2017 by jrober38

[Logic]

The problem is that many fans simply haven't updated their thinking about QB pay in the past few years. As the cap has risen steadily and as the league continues to suffer a dearth of quality quarterback play, the position simply isn't paid on the same scale as any other position. It is going to become increasingly clear this season and moving forward that to have even an AVERAGE QB, you have to pay him $15mil+/year. Unfortunately, many fans don't seem to grasp this. They don't seem to grasp that it's not 2013 any more.

The only way to have a quality quarterback and NOT pay him that much is to draft one and get 5 years of cheap labor. So unless the Bills plan on drafting a QB high and starting him right away or playing Cardale and tanking, they pretty much HAVE to pay Tyrod. What realistic alternative is there?

[jeffismagic]

 

Most rookie QBs are awful. The odds of there being another Dak Prescott are probably less than 5%.

 

When you take away the guys who go #1 overall, for the past 15 years QBs picked 2-32nd overall have busted more than 70% of the time.

 

That's the bet you're making when you pick a QB. I don't see why we'd take a guy when none of them are locks to go top 10.

 

Exactly.

 

We passed on Carr and Bridgewater because we were committed to EJ.

 

You don't draft a guy in the 1st round and send him to the glue factory after one year. That's not how the NFL works.

 

If you draft Trubisky, or Watson, or Kizer or whoever, and they suck this year (which is very likely), you're going to stick with them again next year and risk passing up on what could be signficantly better prospects.

 

The Panthers had no problem sending Jimmy Clausen to the glue factory when Cam Newton was on the board. We have to be active in evaluating QB's every year.

 

I am telling you Mahomes is undervalued because NFL GM's are too conservative and play not to lose. They don't want to be the guy who drafted an Air Raid guy in the first round.

 

He has it all. Pocket Presence, Accuracy, Big Arm, Lightning Release. Has field general qualities and looks downfield even under heavy duress. Bills interviewed him.

[Logic]

 

 

 

The Bills problem is that they blow way too many draft picks. We need to start hitting on our 1st and 2nd rounder or else the performance of this team is never going to improve significantly.

I mean...Levitre, Byrd, Wood, Aaron Williams, Dareus, Glenn, Gilmore, Woods, Alonso, Watkins, Darby, Ragland, and Lawson all seem like pretty good picks to me. But sure, we never hit on 1st or 2nd round picks. And before you say it: whether or not the Bills re-signed guys after their rookie contract does not have any bearing on whether or not they're good players. We let Byrd, Levitre, Gilmore, and Alonso go elsewhere, yes, but it doesn't mean they're bad players or were bad picks.

 

I've said this before: The Bills are NOT terrible at drafting. They're about average. Some fans seem to think you should get 4-5 starting caliber players out of every draft, and that's just not reality. If you get two starters and a rotational guy each draft, you're batting about league average. By that measure, the Bills are average drafters. No better, no worse.

[jrober38]

 

The Panthers had no problem sending Jimmy Clausen to the glue factory when Cam Newton was on the board. We have to be active in evaluating QB's every year.

 

I am telling you Mahomes is undervalued because NFL GM's are too conservative and play not to lose. They don't want to be the guy who drafted an Air Raid guy in the first round.

 

He has it all. Pocket Presence, Accuracy, Big Arm, Lightning Release. Has field general qualities and looks downfield even under heavy duress. Bills interviewed him.

 

Jimmy Clausen was a 2nd round pick. He also led the Panthers to the worst record in the NFL.

 

I really dislike Mahomes. He's an improv artist who has no idea how to run a structured NFL offense. His accuracy is suspect, his footwork is abysmal and he rarely steps up into the pocket and usually just retreats to throw off his back foot which never works in the NFL. Additionally he comes from the Air Raid which does nothing to prepare a QB for the NFL (doesn't call plays, doesn't take snaps under centre, only a few route concepts).

There isn't a single example of a team drafting QBs in the 1st round in back to back years in almost 30 years.

 

If you draft a QB, and they suck, you're stuck with them in 2018.

I mean...Levitre, Byrd, Wood, Aaron Williams, Dareus, Glenn, Gilmore, Woods, Alonso, Watkins, Darby, Ragland, and Lawson all seem like pretty good picks to me. But sure, we never hit on 1st or 2nd round picks. And before you say it: whether or not the Bills re-signed guys after their rookie contract does not have any bearing on whether or not they're good players. We let Byrd, Levitre, Gilmore, and Alonso go elsewhere, yes, but it doesn't mean they're bad players or were bad picks.

 

I've said this before: The Bills are NOT terrible at drafting. They're about average. Some fans seem to think you should get 4-5 starting caliber players out of every draft, and that's just not reality. If you get two starters and a rotational guy each draft, you're batting about league average. By that measure, the Bills are average drafters. No better, no worse.

 

I disagree.

 

Our drafting the last 5-6 years has been abysmal.

 

2010 was a complete train wreck.

 

2012 produced one player who got a 2nd contract (Glenn).

 

2013 was a train wreck.

 

2014 looks worse and worse as time goes by.

 

2015 looks worse and worse as time goes by.

 

2016 has contributed nothing so far (Lawson and Ragland have a lot to prove this year).

 

You can't draft as poorly as we do and expect to be successful in the NFL. The result of our horrendous drafting has been our over reliance on Free Agency, which has put the team in a terrible salary cap situation that we can't really get out of for another two years.

[jeffismagic]

 

Jimmy Clausen was a 2nd round pick. He also led the Panthers to the worst record in the NFL.

 

I really dislike Mahomes. He's an improv artist who has no idea how to run a structured NFL offense. His accuracy is suspect, his footwork is abysmal and he rarely steps up into the pocket and usually just retreats to throw off his back foot which never works in the NFL. Additionally he comes from the Air Raid which does nothing to prepare a QB for the NFL (doesn't call plays, doesn't take snaps under centre, only a few route concepts).

There isn't a single example of a team drafting QBs in the 1st round in back to back years in almost 30 years.

 

If you draft a QB, and they suck, you're stuck with them in 2018.

 

No, you aren't stuck with them. If they can't play they sit on the bench.

 

There are no John Elways in the draft but we don't draft first anyway. It seems you only want to move on a QB that is perfect which will mean in a QB driven league we never create a winner.

 

If you don't like ANY of the 2017 QB's you are really too picky, IMO. Mahomes doesn't call his own plays? Really, that's a thing? No QB in college is calling their own plays.

 

Another thing Mahomes will stress in Indianapolis: He had more responsibilities in Lubbock than you think. Kingsbury allowed Mahomes to begin checking plays at line of scrimmage during the quarterback’s sophomore year, and by last year Mahomes could check any play he wanted. In fact, Kingsbury’s sideline signals were an exception—he used them only when he wanted Mahomes to keep his play no matter what. A scout said that is unusual for a college spread quarterback. It was a virtue of Mahomes starting 28 games.

 

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/03/01/nfl-draft-patrick-mahomes-ii-texas-tech-quarterback-first-round-prospect

[Bill from NYC]

Pick up Taylor's option and sign a 1st round Rookie QB. Best case scenario is we have a Brees/Rivers controversy. Worst is we continue to miss the playoffs.

I fully agree. If this article is true, it proves that qbs are worth their weight in gold (as if more proof was needed).

 

Tyrod is decent and under contract. It is also quite possible for him to improve, but players get hurt. If we draft a qb and he plays well there is built in, major trade value.

 

In an ideal world we could trade down and still accomplish this. I would love to get back some draft picks that Whaley squandered but I guess one can't have everything.

[Logic]

 

Jimmy Clausen was a 2nd round pick. He also led the Panthers to the worst record in the NFL.

 

I really dislike Mahomes. He's an improv artist who has no idea how to run a structured NFL offense. His accuracy is suspect, his footwork is abysmal and he rarely steps up into the pocket and usually just retreats to throw off his back foot which never works in the NFL. Additionally he comes from the Air Raid which does nothing to prepare a QB for the NFL (doesn't call plays, doesn't take snaps under centre, only a few route concepts).

There isn't a single example of a team drafting QBs in the 1st round in back to back years in almost 30 years.

 

If you draft a QB, and they suck, you're stuck with them in 2018.

 

I disagree.

 

Our drafting the last 5-6 years has been abysmal.

 

2010 was a complete train wreck.

 

2012 produced one player who got a 2nd contract (Glenn).

 

2013 was a train wreck.

 

2014 looks worse and worse as time goes by.

 

2015 looks worse and worse as time goes by.

 

2016 has contributed nothing so far (Lawson and Ragland have a lot to prove this year).

 

You can't draft as poorly as we do and expect to be successful in the NFL. The result of our horrendous drafting has been our over reliance on Free Agency, which has put the team in a terrible salary cap situation that we can't really get out of for another two years.

Definitely gonna have to agree to disagree. 2015, in which -- despite having no 1st round picks -- we netted a starting corner who was a DROY candidate and a RG who made the biggest year 1 to year 2 jump of any drafted guard and is now pretty good in his own right, is somehow looking "Worse and worse" to you. 2014, in which we netted a linebacker who has started almost every game since he was drafted, a playmaking WR, and a two OTs who have started games for us (not to mention a CB who starts for another team) is "looking worse and worse to you".

 

I think your standards for success for a draft class are unrealistic. Agree to disagree.

[Bill from NYC]

I disagree.

 

Our drafting the last 5-6 years has been abysmal.

 

2010 was a complete train wreck.

 

2012 produced one player who got a 2nd contract (Glenn).

 

2013 was a train wreck.

 

2014 looks worse and worse as time goes by.

 

2015 looks worse and worse as time goes by.

 

2016 has contributed nothing so far (Lawson and Ragland have a lot to prove this year).

 

You can't draft as poorly as we do and expect to be successful in the NFL. The result of our horrendous drafting has been our over reliance on Free Agency, which has put the team in a terrible salary cap situation that we can't really get out of for another two years.

Why did you stop at 2010? I was hoping you would go back until at least 2006, which imo was a huge breaking point.

[davefan66]

Bills have passed on Derrick Carr, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and more.

 

I get your fear. But we can't just ignore the position every year.

 

Seems like every year, we either pass on someone that nobody knows will hit, ie: Prescott, Wilson and Carr, or we just miss on the guy we "supposedly" wanted.

 

Need to be aggressive. If they have their eyes on a certain guy, draft him. Who cares if it's a "reach", if you want him then draft him a round ahead of the targeted round. Yeah, it backfired with Manuel, but at least they targeted the guy they wanted and got him - was a poor QB draft to begin with.

 

You'd think that over time, they would just simply stumble onto a QB that is good...just by pure luck.

[jeffismagic]

 

Seems like every year, we either pass on someone that nobody knows will hit, ie: Prescott, Wilson and Carr, or we just miss on the guy we "supposedly" wanted.

 

Need to be aggressive. If they have their eyes on a certain guy, draft him. Who cares if it's a "reach", if you want him then draft him a round ahead of the targeted round. Yeah, it backfired with Manuel, but at least they targeted the guy they wanted and got him - was a poor QB draft to begin with.

 

You'd think that over time, they would just simply stumble onto a QB that is good...just by pure luck.

 

Exactly. Bills have only spent 2 picks in the first 2 rounds on QB in the last 20 years. That's embarrassing. You can't hit on players you never take. If you don't have a QB you need to find one.

Edited March 6, 2017 by jeffismagic