The Trump Economy

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

well, tell that to the 1000s of businesses that have growth in APAC, specifically China, as a major strategic driver of revenue growth in the next 5 years.1 BILLION consumers, in a world economy that is driven by consumer spending, is way to0 big to just say "screw it". Trump is learning he does not hold all the cards as he did most times in his private business and his simple tactic of saying " i will walk away" unless i get my way does not work when dealing with authortarian regimes that do not need to be elected. He is finding that out with Xi ,Kim and MBS...

  Authortarian regimes also do not have loyalty and ethics dictated to them.  No amount of goodwill is going to change them on this front.  They are the Joe Dirt on the world stage of trade partners.  A billion customers of who?  Who says that China is bound to trade with the US?  Go back nearly two generations when Japan chucked the US as a major trade partner for commodities.  Japan found different sources for agricultural commodities such as soybeans such as buying from South American countries.  Further, Japan used its own capital to solidify trade on agricultural products by purchasing inputs or financing inputs for these agriculturalists.  China could follow a similar route by obtaining agricultural products from suppliers other than the US.  

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Authortarian regimes also do not have loyalty and ethics dictated to them.  No amount of goodwill is going to change them on this front.  They are the Joe Dirt on the world stage of trade partners.  A billion customers of who?  Who says that China is bound to trade with the US?  Go back nearly two generations when Japan chucked the US as a major trade partner for commodities.  Japan found different sources for agricultural commodities such as soybeans such as buying from South American countries.  Further, Japan used its own capital to solidify trade on agricultural products by purchasing inputs or financing inputs for these agriculturalists.  China could follow a similar route by obtaining agricultural products from suppliers other than the US.  

The real point here is that the best time to push back against China (or anyone else) is when the US is in a position of strength....like right now.  You can't do it during a recession or in the middle of a war.  We may not completely level the playing field, but this is the moment to tip it a little.

[RochesterRob]

9 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Woo! You are admitting Trumps policies will devalue farmers land?!? Ok! Cooling inflation means farmers get f***ked 

In your ignorant mind, possibly. I'm not the one asking people to repeat themselves though. 

  Farmers were employing strategies that would lead and will lead to corrections in land values among other things.  This happened long before Trump and will happen long after Trump is no longer POTUS.  Further, other Presidents have used US agriculture as a foreign policy tool such as Carter with the Soviet grain embargo back in 1980.  Some such as Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon used the "carrot" approach to guide foreign policy such as subsidizing grain sales which put inflationary pressure on agriculture which can be harmful.

[plenzmd1]

5 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Authortarian regimes also do not have loyalty and ethics dictated to them.  No amount of goodwill is going to change them on this front.  They are the Joe Dirt on the world stage of trade partners.  A billion customers of who?  Who says that China is bound to trade with the US?  Go back nearly two generations when Japan chucked the US as a major trade partner for commodities.  Japan found different sources for agricultural commodities such as soybeans such as buying from South American countries.  Further, Japan used its own capital to solidify trade on agricultural products by purchasing inputs or financing inputs for these agriculturalists.  China could follow a similar route by obtaining agricultural products from suppliers other than the US.  

So..not quite sure what we ar arguing. Agreed China can go elsewhere..and that is the danger. OTOH, they dont wan't to give up trading woth the #1 Economy in the world...something to lose for each party.

 

I have said in this thread going back 18 months or whenever this whole tariff mess started with them...Trump has more to lose than Xi...Xi can push his people into bad times, Trump cannot, he has an election to worry about. Trump is learning what it is like to make a deal when you do not have all the leverage..and in fact may be on the short side of things due to the election.

[RochesterRob]

5 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

So..not quite sure what we ar arguing. Agreed China can go elsewhere..and that is the danger. OTOH, they dont wan't to give up trading woth the #1 Economy in the world...something to lose for each party.

 

I have said in this thread going back 18 months or whenever this whole tariff mess started with them...Trump has more to lose than Xi...Xi can push his people into bad times, Trump cannot, he has an election to worry about. Trump is learning what it is like to make a deal when you do not have all the leverage..and in fact may be on the short side of things due to the election.

  The difference is you are looking at it from the short term while I am looking at it from the long term which does not include the 2020 election.  China can not be counted upon for endless quarters of growth for US businesses.  Everybody wants to emulate the US of the post WWII era where they can be a huge net exporter of product and net importer of currency.  Trouble is as it applies to US-China trade only one party can prevail in terms of those goals to the current extremes.  

[Tiberius]

21 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

 

Yes but I have to give Trump high marks for making the effort to solve some things.  Other Presidents just let ***** fester and kicked the can down the road.  Trump is at least taking on some issues.

What problem is he attempting to solve? 

16 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Farmers were employing strategies that would lead and will lead to corrections in land values among other things.  This happened long before Trump and will happen long after Trump is no longer POTUS.  Further, other Presidents have used US agriculture as a foreign policy tool such as Carter with the Soviet grain embargo back in 1980.  Some such as Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon used the "carrot" approach to guide foreign policy such as subsidizing grain sales which put inflationary pressure on agriculture which can be harmful.

A strategy like selling to markets that want to buy their goods? That's gone now. Those markets may never come back. Trump is literally ruining farmers. 

Ya, Trump and Carter, a pair of one termers 

[RochesterRob]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

What problem is he attempting to solve? 

A strategy like selling to markets that want to buy their goods? That's gone now. Those markets may never come back. Trump is literally ruining farmers. 

Ya, Trump and Carter, a pair of one termers 

  Shrinking markets have always been a risk of farming.  Any devastation to come out of a China close out would be pale compared to what happened after WWI.  US exports of wheat reached unimaginable heights due to WWI with major producers such as the low countries and France laying in ruin.  US farmers bought lots of land at historically high prices and often used credit to do it.  By 1920-21 European agriculture was pretty much back on its own feet so the need for US imports was no longer there.  This had a devastating effect on US farmers and agribusinesses.  Wheat prices dropped pushing many farmers into bankruptcy and forced many layoffs of employees who worked for large agribusinesses.  These layoffs were far from inconsequential as companies such as International Harvester were major cogs in the US economy with IH being a component of the DJIA back then.  As I said before there are past examples of the President using agriculture as a foreign policy tool with the side effects being far more harmful.  If Woodrow Wilson was truly visionary he would have advised Americans to temper their efforts in ramping up US wheat production.

[jrober38]

34 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

A strategy like selling to markets that want to buy their goods? That's gone now. Those markets may never come back. Trump is literally ruining farmers. 

Ya, Trump and Carter, a pair of one termers 

 

I agree with this.

 

Trump has shown a major lack of understanding on how global commodity markets work.

 

China will now secure the purchase of food from other suppliers around the world. When those connections are made, they'll no longer need the US, and that market might be gone entirely for US farmers.

 

Global trade decisions aren't made on a whim like Trump suggests they are. These networks are extremely complicated, and if a country like China is going to rework how they feed their people, they're not going to do it with an outlook of only a few months, or until the trade war ends sometime

 

China is going to rework their food supply network indefinitely, and it's not going to involve US Farmers. 

Edited August 6, 2019 by jrober38

[Tiberius]

17 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Shrinking markets have always been a risk of farming.  Any devastation to come out of a China close out would be pale compared to what happened after WWI.  US exports of wheat reached unimaginable heights due to WWI with major producers such as the low countries and France laying in ruin.  US farmers bought lots of land at historically high prices and often used credit to do it.  By 1920-21 European agriculture was pretty much back on its own feet so the need for US imports was no longer there.  This had a devastating effect on US farmers and agribusinesses.  Wheat prices dropped pushing many farmers into bankruptcy and forced many layoffs of employees who worked for large agribusinesses.  These layoffs were far from inconsequential as companies such as International Harvester were major cogs in the US economy with IH being a component of the DJIA back then.  As I said before there are past examples of the President using agriculture as a foreign policy tool with the side effects being far more harmful.  If Woodrow Wilson was truly visionary he would have advised Americans to temper their efforts in ramping up US wheat production.

This isn't the 1920's man. Closing off markets is stupid. Trump's trade war is just stupid. Taxes on consumers, welfare for farmers and lost markets. When a recession comes, Trump will be to blame. 

[RochesterRob]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I agree with this.

 

Trump has shown a major lack of understanding on how global commodity markets work.

 

China will now secure the purchase of food from other suppliers around the world. When those connections are made, they'll no longer need the US, and that market might be gone entirely for US farmers.

 

Global trade decisions aren't made on a whim like Trump suggests they are. These networks are extremely complicated, and if a country like China is going to rework how they feed their people, they're not going to do it with an outlook of only a few months, or until the trade war ends somtime

 

China is going to rework their food supply network indefinitely, and it's not going to involve US Farmers. 

  Since China and the US are competing military powers a rework of their food supply line was going to happen at some point.  I think that you fail to understand how the human mind works.  

9 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

This isn't the 1920's man. Closing off markets is stupid. Trump's trade war is just stupid. Taxes on consumers, welfare for farmers and lost markets. When a recession comes, Trump will be to blame. 

  Some behavior of human beings is timeless whether in a positive or negative sense.

[jrober38]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  Since China and the US are competing military powers a rework of their food supply line was going to happen at some point.  I think that you fail to understand how the human mind works.  

 

It didn't have to happen.

 

Instead the US soybean farmer was essentially just put out of business yesterday. 

[RochesterRob]

27 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It didn't have to happen.

 

Instead the US soybean farmer was essentially just put out of business yesterday. 

  Far from out of business.  The best areas of the world are already being used for agriculture with existing outlets for product.  What remains is problematic due to politics or climate (or in the case of the Ukraine both).  Droughts, untimely frost, and disease will still plague agriculture meaning that China from time to time will have to turn to somewhat more stable suppliers such as the US.  Further, much research is happening for uses of soybeans other than feeding to livestock such as extracting its oils for industrial and personal uses.  These uses now include the development of plastics for structural material.  Far better markets in the long term than a fickle trade partner.

[Tiberius]

10 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Far from out of business.  The best areas of the world are already being used for agriculture with existing outlets for product.  What remains is problematic due to politics or climate (or in the case of the Ukraine both).  Droughts, untimely frost, and disease will still plague agriculture meaning that China from time to time will have to turn to somewhat more stable suppliers such as the US.  Further, much research is happening for uses of soybeans other than feeding to livestock such as extracting its oils for industrial and personal uses.  These uses now include the development of plastics for structural material.  Far better markets in the long term than a fickle trade partner.

Lol, ya, sure they will. Soybean farmers will be cashing Trumps welfare checks. He's created a new dependency class and guess who is paying for it? 

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Lol, ya, sure they will. Soybean farmers will be cashing Trumps welfare checks. He's created a new dependency class and guess who is paying for it? 

  Why do you hate your brain so much that you refuse to use it?  As far as who is paying for anything that certainly does not include you.  I'm sure that your pay at the laundromat and cubicle farm is such that in the end you owe no tax.  Most minimum wage jobs are that way.  At least you are working.  Kudos, I think?

[keepthefaith]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

This isn't the 1920's man. Closing off markets is stupid. Trump's trade war is just stupid. Taxes on consumers, welfare for farmers and lost markets. When a recession comes, Trump will be to blame. 

 

Wanting more equitable trade between the 2 nations is stupid? 

[RochesterRob]

3 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

 

Wanting more equitable trade between the 2 nations is stupid? 

  Tibs is very used to being bent over and reamed so he assumes that everybody else feels the same way.

Edited August 6, 2019 by RochesterRob

[Tiberius]

9 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

 

Wanting more equitable trade between the 2 nations is stupid? 

Seemed to be working fine before Trump start monkeying around with the system. Killing trade is really stupid. 

 

Maybe Trump should be trying to promote human rights instead of just trying to bully people who are not going to be bullied. 

10 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Tibs is very used to being bent over and reamed so he assumes that everybody else feels the same way.

Get up off your knees 

[GG]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

It didn't have to happen.

 

Instead the US soybean farmer was essentially just put out of business yesterday. 

 

What do you think there were strategic implications of US designating Brazil as an important non-NATO military ally?

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Seemed to be working fine before Trump start monkeying around with the system. Killing trade is really stupid. 

 

Maybe Trump should be trying to promote human rights instead of just trying to bully people who are not going to be bullied. 

Get up off your knees 

  But somebody has to pray for your salvation.  Why would anyone else be on their knees I can't answer.  I surely know that in my case it is to offer prayer and nothing else.  Leave your own sexual desires to your own bedroom and don't involve me.  Please.  

[Tiberius]

9 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  But somebody has to pray for your salvation.  Why would anyone else be on their knees I can't answer.  I surely know that in my case it is to offer prayer and nothing else.  Leave your own sexual desires to your own bedroom and don't involve me.  Please.  

Sex? Not even referring to that. You are your knees before Trump, like a cultist.