YattaOkasan Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 And as yet, no way to call Watkins an elite talent based on production. But thats not true. We saw his numbers relative to his age. He has performed well for a young player. OBJ is old and now looking like hes becoming a TEAM liability. If were gonna play the guys they could've gotten game were gonna be here all day and every GM is gonna look awful. It was a risky move to get someone who was considered the best in a deep WR class. Barring injuries the kid's gonna be playing for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) But thats not true. We saw his numbers relative to his age. He has performed well for a young player. OBJ is old and now looking like hes becoming a TEAM liability. If were gonna play the guys they could've gotten game were gonna be here all day and every GM is gonna look awful. It was a risky move to get someone who was considered the best in a deep WR class. Barring injuries the kid's gonna be playing for a long time. I'd argue it really is true. Sammy's numbers relative to his age aren't elite. They're pretty good. Not what you'd hope for out of a 4th overall pick. And barring injuries is saying a lot. He's been injured a ton. Beckham isn't a liability to that team. A jerk, yeah. A liability to the Giants, nope, haven't seen that yet, though I wouldn't rule it out. Old? Beckham's the same age as Watkins. And again, Beckham wasn't the only one. Could've had Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry ... Edited October 7, 2016 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I'd argue it really is true. Sammy's numbers relative to his age aren't elite. They're pretty good. Not what you'd hope for out of a 4th overall pick. And barring injuries is saying a lot. He's been injured a ton. Beckham isn't a liability to that team. A jerk, yeah. A liability to the Giants, nope, haven't seen that yet, though I wouldn't rule it out. Old? Beckham's the same age as Watkins. And again, Beckham wasn't the only one. Could've had Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry ... Thats is elite company IMO. It was from the offseason but I think its impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) Lot to point out that I disagree with. Just to start on you D stat, does whaley not get credit for his good defensive draft picks (Darby and Brown?) and his FA signings look good (Hughes, Brown, Alexander). We havent even seen this years players so we will need wait but I assume at least one will be pretty good. As has been stated before, that list of FA signings looks like an average FA class for a GM. It could be a great one if TT pans out. Arguably TT has already shown great investment and at this point he is developing and is now in the coach's hands. All the Byrd stuff is speculation to me. I think the team's record with Whaley says what he is, an average but trending up GM (I'm starting from his first full offseason). Where did I say I didn't like his drafting? The post I replied to was about his FAs, that's why I talked only about that. And I agree, the Byrd stuff is speculation. Fair enough. Edited October 7, 2016 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Where did I say I didn't like his drafting? The post I replied to was about his FAs, that's why I talked only about that. And I agree, the Byrd stuff is speculation. Fair enough. You didn't say you didn't like his drafting which is fair. So I will concede a bit his big FA signings have not been great. But as you noted there are not a lot on defense. I think I see your point now on that. The two from this year were good gets but its ultimately not as big of a sample size on defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 @BuffRumblings Do you approve of the job #Bills GM Doug Whaley has done through Week 4? https://t.co/5Olkoi6yfK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) Thats is elite company IMO. It was from the offseason but I think its impressive. That is elite company. Plenty of non-elite WRs have managed similar numbers in their first couple of years too, though. But further, some of those comparisons are reaching. Where's Sammy's 1400 yard season? So he doesn't belong with Robinson. DeAndre Hopkins was coming off a 1200 yard season and was on a huge up-trend. Josh Gordon had rung up a 1600 yard season in his second year. Fitz too, a 1400 yard second year. Comparing Sammy to that doesn't make sense. I could go on. And putting him with Randy Moss is absolutely ridiculous, even just based on the numbers in your graphic there. And that graphic looks a lot less impressive when you consider that he's a third-year player, not a second, and that he's not exactly knocking it out of the park so far this year. Watkins has had moments. But he just hasn't been elite in any way I would use the word. Like your name, by the way. I've lived in Japan for 24 years now. Edited October 7, 2016 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty McFly Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Glenn wasn't his pick any idiot could keep him, we only got Ritchie because NOBODY wanted him, Watkins - what has he done? plus trading up for was stupid in a great WR draft would take Benjamin over him, paying ten million for an old RB on the decline genius, Miller is no star. Henderson was brutal last yr and is no great shakes but decent pick for a 7th I thought Henderson played well in the beginning of the season, then he got injured and started getting sick or declining, at least thats what I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 You didn't say you didn't like his drafting which is fair. So I will concede a bit his big FA signings have not been great. But as you noted there are not a lot on defense. I think I see your point now on that. The two from this year were good gets but its ultimately not as big of a sample size on defense. Agreed. And as you said above, "Average but trending up"? I'd say that's fair. If they do well the rest of the year, and especially if Tyrod starts to become a franchise guy, Whaley will come out looking very very good indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) That is elite company. Plenty of non-elite WRs have managed similar numbers in their first couple of years too, though. But further, some of those comparisons are reaching. Where's Sammy's 1400 yard season? So he doesn't belong with Robinson. DeAndre Hopkins was coming off a 1200 yard season and was on a huge up-trend. Josh Gordon had rung up a 1600 yard season in his second year. Comparing Sammy to that doesn't make sense. I could go on. And putting him with Randy Moss is absolutely ridiculous, even just based on the numbers in your graphic there. And that graphic looks a lot less impressive when you consider that he's a third-year player, not a second, and that he's not exactly knocking it out of the park so far this year. Watkins has had moments. But he just hasn't been elite in any way I would use the word. Here are some breakdowns that actually compare WRs based on context and not raw numbers: http://fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/articles/2015wrcatchypt.php http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/ http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/ http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-only-one-concern-can-hold-sammy-watkins-back-from-his-ceiling.html It's also important to consider that (a) the Bills throw the ball less than pretty much every other team, and (b) Watkins' target percentage is significantly lower than the other #1 WRs in the NFL: http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000693785/article/wide-receiver-target-distribution-for-all-32-teams It's an issue of opportunities, not an issue of productivity. Some of that is due to injuries, and some is due to a system that calls for very few pass plays, and a QB that is limited in what he can do. Edited October 7, 2016 by thebandit27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 @mikerodak NFL tackles leader Zach Brown helps Bills forget about key defensive injuries: https://t.co/yxoDftjO5n @RQUINN619 No GM is perfect, but #Bills Doug Whaley has done a good job since taking charge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) Here are some breakdowns that actually compare WRs based on context and not raw numbers: http://fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/articles/2015wrcatchypt.php http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/ http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/ http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-only-one-concern-can-hold-sammy-watkins-back-from-his-ceiling.html It's also important to consider that (a) the Bills throw the ball less than pretty much every other team, and (b) Watkins' target percentage is significantly lower than the other #1 WRs in the NFL: http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000693785/article/wide-receiver-target-distribution-for-all-32-teams It's an issue of opportunities, not an issue of productivity. Some of that is due to injuries, and some is due to a system that calls for very few pass plays, and a QB that is limited in what he can do. So I’m looking at your first link, the data from 2015, Sammy’s best season. He’s 36th in targets, and 35th in receptions and that’s supposed to be elite as people in this thread have tried to argue? What does impress is his yards per catch. How much of that, though, is from Tyrod’s tendency to throw long a lot, and very well? Still, impressive. That first article stresses catch rate and yards per target, by the way. In yards per target Sammy comes off very very well indeed. Catch rate, not nearly so much. It’s not a coincidence they don’t even get around to mentioning him in the section of the article on catch rates, and in fact gets mentioned only in the YPT section. Your second article has a subhead saying that Sammy’s season was better than it seemed, but actually only shows that for part of the season he played very well and for part of the season he didn’t. We already knew that. The article is right that he played very well the last nine games. But doesn’t much mention the first seven when he didn’t play particularly well, which may well have had a lot to do with injuries. His conclusion is that Sammy’s 2015 season was much much better than it seemed. But what he actually shows is that his last nine games were terrific, but first seven really weren’t. That’s not a season. In fact, all of your articles there focus on the last nine games and try to ignore the others. Nobody – certainly not me – is arguing that those weren’t a really good nine games. But Sammy’s inconsistency should not be ignored. If he’d played at that kind of rate his whole career, nobody would disagree with calling him elite. The reason they do disagree – you won’t find Sammy on many top ten WR lists from last year. And you won’t find Beckham OFF most top five WR lists. An awful lot of the reason they haven't been targeting him is because he's been injured and limited. Consistently. Your fourth article spends a lot of time on that point, very reasonably. Looking again at catch rate, over his first two years they targeted him 224 times. He made 125 catches. 55.8%. That is not an elite ratio. Below average, in fact. Robert Woods' ratio for the same two years was 184 targets and 112 catches, 60.8%. Same two years Beckham was getting targeted a lot more, but maybe because he was converting his chances at a much higher rate, 288 targets and 187 catches, 64.9%, a much higher number than the other Giant WRs, by the way. Sammy improved in catch rate in 2015, but still was far from elite. And now he’s injured again. Has he been great at times? Yeah. Could he become great consistently? Yeah. Can we assume that's what will happen based on what we've seen? I don't see how. We've also seen injuries and the low catch rate and inconsistency. We can hope. I certainly am. But he just hasn't been elite based on production so far. Edited October 7, 2016 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 He’s 36th in targets, and 35th in receptions and that’s supposed to be elite as people in this thread have tried to argue? What does impress is his yards per catch. How much of that, though, is from Tyrod’s tendency to throw long a lot, and very well? Still, impressive. First, I'm not trying to argue anything; I'm offering context. You might consider that finishing 22nd in receiving yards despite being 36th in targets is significant. Compare it to a guy like Jarvis Landry, for instance--who finished 13th in yards despite being 4th in targets--and it tells a story. That first article stresses catch rate and yards per target, by the way. In yards per target Sammy comes off very very well indeed. Catch rate, not nearly so much. It’s not a coincidence they don’t even get around to mentioning him in the section of the article on catch rates, and in fact gets mentioned only in the YPT section. With regard to catch rate, they also didn't get around to mentioning Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryuis Thomas, Allen Robinson, Calvin Johnson, Mike Evans, Emmanuel Sanders, or a dozen other guys whose catch rates were lower than Sammy's. I'm sure you'd agree that there are at least 2 or 3 elite names I've mentioned here with lower YPT and catch rates than Sammy. Again: the purpose here is context, not to overly laud or marginalize anyone's numbers. Your second article has a subhead saying that Sammy’s season was better than it seemed, but actually only shows that for part of the season he played very well and for part of the season he didn’t. We already knew that. The article is right that he played very well the last nine games. But doesn’t much mention the first seven when he didn’t play particularly well, which may well have had a lot to do with injuries. His conclusion is that Sammy’s 2015 season was much much better than it seemed. But what he actually shows is that his last nine games were terrific, but first seven really weren’t. That’s not a season. In fact, all of your articles there focus on the last nine games and try to ignore the others. So we're left to wonder what the difference is between the first 7 games (of which he missed 3 entire games and the majority of 2 others) and the final 9 games, right? I'll answer that for you: the difference is targets. He averaged over 7 targets per game for the final 9 games of the season; he averaged fewer than 5 for the first 7. The issue here is opportunity; number of targets. We can discuss the reason(s) for that, but I think the majority of us would agree that it comes down to 3 things: availability, run/pass ratio, and a limited QB. I'm open to hearing arguments that bring up other issues; I just haven't been presented one that is supported by facts up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 @BuffRumblings Do you approve of the job #Bills GM Doug Whaley has done through Week 4? https://t.co/5Olkoi6yfK @ChrisTrapasso More than 1,400 votes in Rumblings' Doug Whaley approval rating poll. Looks like it'll settle between 75% - 80% approval for the #Bills GM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dulles Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Not only did we win, we beat the patriots in foxboro. Don't worry, they will all be terrible and order will be restored when we lose to the rams That's some TSW experience speaking right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 That is elite company. Plenty of non-elite WRs have managed similar numbers in their first couple of years too, though. But further, some of those comparisons are reaching. Where's Sammy's 1400 yard season? So he doesn't belong with Robinson. DeAndre Hopkins was coming off a 1200 yard season and was on a huge up-trend. Josh Gordon had rung up a 1600 yard season in his second year. Fitz too, a 1400 yard second year. Comparing Sammy to that doesn't make sense. I could go on. And putting him with Randy Moss is absolutely ridiculous, even just based on the numbers in your graphic there. And that graphic looks a lot less impressive when you consider that he's a third-year player, not a second, and that he's not exactly knocking it out of the park so far this year. Watkins has had moments. But he just hasn't been elite in any way I would use the word. Like your name, by the way. I've lived in Japan for 24 years now. That's why you look at games played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 No one is "good" or "bad" at drafting quarterbacks. Are the Colts less good at drafting quarterbacks because Luck has regressed? Are the Falcons better at drafting quarterbacks now that Matt Ryan has upped his game a level? Teams are good at grooming quarterbacks. Case and point, if Dak Prescott was on the Bills, he wouldn't look this good and if Trent Edwards got to sit behind Tom Brady for a few years and play for Belichick, he probably would have looked just fine. And more than anything, when it comes to quarterbacks especially, it's a total freaking crapshoot. And I know it's become cliche but it's so true- drafting Brady was not some stroke of genius, it was plain, dumb luck. If the Patriots knew he was going to be the best qb of all time, they wouldn't have waited til the 6th round to draft him. Yes. Brady was almost a 'Rudy' when he started his NFL career. Maybe one of the least athletic guys under 290 in the entire league. But he had the fire and the hoodie.... the rest is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy McFiddish Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 I heard Whaley overpaid some guy 5 years ago. He has to go. I literally had coffee come out my nose when I laughed reading this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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