drinkTHEkoolaid Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/breaking-alert-nato-nuke-base-surrounded-by-heavily-armed-turkish-police-houses-up-to-90-thermonuclear-weapons_07302016 Another story on current happenings at incirlik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 (edited) The lockdown at Incirlik follows a massive wave of protests on Thursday when pro-Erdogan nationalists took to the streets yelling “death to the US” and called for the immediate closure of the Incirlik base. It is unclear if Erdogan is naive enough to think that he can out-bluff and out-bully the US and keep Incirlik hostage until he gets Gulen repatriated by Obama on a silver platter, a hostage “tit for tat” we first described two weeks ago. http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/breaking-alert-nato-nuke-base-surrounded-by-heavily-armed-turkish-police-houses-up-to-90-thermonuclear-weapons_07302016 I would not turn over Gulen, a moderate to those extremists. JMO Edited July 31, 2016 by ALF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Our Turkey port is still on and just two days away. If you don't hear from me for awhile...just wait longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Our Turkey port is still on and just two days away. If you don't hear from me for awhile...just wait longer. ‘Young, old, conservative, liberal’: Turkey in shock over journalists’ arrest Turkish media are in a state of shock this weekend after the government arrested 17 journalists in recent days on terror charges and issued arrest warrants for dozens more, in what a press freedom group has warned is a “sweeping purge” of the sector. Turkey had already ordered the closure of more than 100 papers, broadcasters and publishing houses as part of a crackdown after the failed 15 July coup attempt, before sending police to round up reporters, columnists, a novelist and social commentators. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/30/turkey-journalists-arrest-nation-shock-coup Our Turkey port is still on and just two days away. If you don't hear from me for awhile...just wait longer. Is it too late to get off the boat? God speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 DR- what's your take on the Turkey purge, Erdogen dictatorship, the nukes, ISIS supporters etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 I think there is a coup attempt going on right now, and Erdogen is at the head of it. We're witnessing nothing less than a Stalinesque purge of political enemies. Hillary is drooling over the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 DR- what's your take on the Turkey purge, Erdogen dictatorship, the nukes, ISIS supporters etc... My first take is Doc shouldn't make port there in two days... It's a crazy situation on the ground in Turkey right now from what I'm hearing. One of my good friends lives in Istanbul and I haven't heard much from him for over a week. The last we spoke he told me he felt the purges were going to increase in scale and there's a massive ongoing effort within the remaining media to paint this as an American backed coup. Most of his family and friends don't believe this, instead they think it's more likely to have been a play by Putin. He's a university professor as are both his parents -- they're looking to get out of the country even though, up until recent events, they had been on Team Erdogan. That shows me that there's a lot of conflicting information out there and I'm reluctant to trust any of it entirely. RT has been the most reliable "news" outlet on these events lately, and that should be eye opening to folks paying attention. I can see why the west would want to get Erdogan out of power and might have been silent partners in a coup attempt -- but if it was truly western backed I think it would have been far better organized and they never would have let him make that FaceTime address to the nation that turned the tide. I still think it's more plausible that Erdogan himself was behind the coup and it was a false flag event -- or even a LIHOP (let it happen on purpose) kind of thing, possibly with Russian help. But again, even that is just speculation at this point. The only thing I'm sure of at the moment about this situation is Erdogan has come out of it more powerful and democracy in Turkey has taken a major step backwards. I do think we're seeing a power struggle going on behind the mainstream curtain and that struggle has been bubbling up to the surface more and more this year. Lots of people are saying this is going to end up like Iran in '79 -- and I can see that to some degree -- but if Erdogan's forces try to take Incirlik by force? Things will get bloody really fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted July 31, 2016 Author Share Posted July 31, 2016 My first take is Doc shouldn't make port there in two days... It's a crazy situation on the ground in Turkey right now from what I'm hearing. One of my good friends lives in Istanbul and I haven't heard much from him for over a week. The last we spoke he told me he felt the purges were going to increase in scale and there's a massive ongoing effort within the remaining media to paint this as an American backed coup. Most of his family and friends don't believe this, instead they think it's more likely to have been a play by Putin. He's a university professor as are both his parents -- they're looking to get out of the country even though, up until recent events, they had been on Team Erdogan. That shows me that there's a lot of conflicting information out there and I'm reluctant to trust any of it entirely. RT has been the most reliable "news" outlet on these events lately, and that should be eye opening to folks paying attention. I can see why the west would want to get Erdogan out of power and might have been silent partners in a coup attempt -- but if it was truly western backed I think it would have been far better organized and they never would have let him make that FaceTime address to the nation that turned the tide. I still think it's more plausible that Erdogan himself was behind the coup and it was a false flag event -- or even a LIHOP (let it happen on purpose) kind of thing, possibly with Russian help. But again, even that is just speculation at this point. The only thing I'm sure of at the moment about this situation is Erdogan has come out of it more powerful and democracy in Turkey has taken a major step backwards. I do think we're seeing a power struggle going on behind the mainstream curtain and that struggle has been bubbling up to the surface more and more this year. Lots of people are saying this is going to end up like Iran in '79 -- and I can see that to some degree -- but if Erdogan's forces try to take Incirlik by force? Things will get bloody really fast. According to RT a high ranking military official is supposed to arrive there today. Joseph Dunford. Not sure if that sheds any light on how we view the situation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 According to RT a high ranking military official is supposed to arrive there today. Joseph Dunford. Not sure if that sheds any light on how we view the situation though. Yeah, and there is supposed to be a scheduled inspection as well. Other sources (even less trustworthy than RT) report Dunford is there to negotiate a western withdraw from the airbase -- but I don't buy that. NATO needs Incirlik to continue air assaults on ISIS targets (Tom might know what the backup base would be if NATO were forced to leave Turkey entirely), but they might be trying to figure out a way to get the nukes out of the area in a way that doesn't encourage Putin to take an even more aggressive posture in the region. Actually, Tom or anyone who would know, how would you even go about moving the nukes from the base? How exposed would that kind of operation be to outside forces who might want to disrupt or take the nukes for themselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Actually, Tom or anyone who would know, how would you even go about moving the nukes from the base? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Not sure what the contingency plan or QRF would be to move the nukes in a hostile environment where there may be an attempt to gain custody of the weapons but I would imagine quite a lot of resources would be needed to expedite and oversee a movement like that. In addition to the 200 or so on site air force security forces... Probably additional units like A navy task force in the med with tactical air support, an embarked marine force element, army ranger QRF on site or near by, strategic airlift c-5s c17s, tankers, drones, possibly f22s and some other type of close air support a-10, apache, cobra, ac130 etc... I have no idea what the mission profile would be to get the nukes out of Turkey in the current climate or if it becomes even more hostile but we need to do EVERYTHING to maintain control over them. But hopefully someone already is working on the contingency because it seems conditions in Turkey are degrading rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 I have no idea what the mission profile would be to get the nukes out of Turkey in the current climate or if it becomes even more hostile but we need to do EVERYTHING to maintain control over them. But hopefully someone already is working on the contingency because it seems conditions in Turkey are degrading rapidly. We have a contingency plan to recover, or render useless, our nuclear arsenal from Turkey in the event of unrest. We even have a contingency plan to recover, or render useless, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in the event of unrest there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Yeah, and there is supposed to be a scheduled inspection as well. Other sources (even less trustworthy than RT) report Dunford is there to negotiate a western withdraw from the airbase -- but I don't buy that. NATO needs Incirlik to continue air assaults on ISIS targets (Tom might know what the backup base would be if NATO were forced to leave Turkey entirely), but they might be trying to figure out a way to get the nukes out of the area in a way that doesn't encourage Putin to take an even more aggressive posture in the region. Actually, Tom or anyone who would know, how would you even go about moving the nukes from the base? How exposed would that kind of operation be to outside forces who might want to disrupt or take the nukes for themselves? Probably load them on transports (C-5s or C-17s) and fly them out. And if they can, in pieces - fly out the physics packages separately from the bomb explosives and casings. The hard part is security and planning. You'd want a secure destination point and flight path to it...so you'd probably be talking about deploying Marines and a fighter escort, and negotiating safe air corridors and permission to land the bombs somewhere (e.g. Lakenhurst, or Aviano.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 We have a contingency plan to recover, or render useless, our nuclear arsenal from Turkey in the event of unrest. We even have a contingency plan to recover, or render useless, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in the event of unrest there. Should have typed that I hope someone is working on implementing the contingency... I know there are literally contingency plans for everything, especially nuclear weapons in unstable areas. Which not to go off topic would be very crurious to see what happens when NK and fat boy start to unravel what SK and the US do to go in and secure his nukes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Is it too late to get off the boat? God speed. If anything, I'd want to stay on the boat. And thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Should have typed that I hope someone is working on implementing the contingency... I know there are literally contingency plans for everything, especially nuclear weapons in unstable areas. Which not to go off topic would be very crurious to see what happens when NK and fat boy start to unravel what SK and the US do to go in and secure his nukes. I'm less concerned about the American and ROK's contingency plan to secure North Korea's nukes than I am about China's contingency plan to secure North Korea's nukes Somehow I doubt China would quietly accept a nuclear armed unified Korea aligned with the United States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Probably load them on transports (C-5s or C-17s) and fly them out. And if they can, in pieces - fly out the physics packages separately from the bomb explosives and casings. The hard part is security and planning. You'd want a secure destination point and flight path to it...so you'd probably be talking about deploying Marines and a fighter escort, and negotiating safe air corridors and permission to land the bombs somewhere (e.g. Lakenhurst, or Aviano.) What if airspace is closed ? No flights in or out? "Late Saturday night all access to the military base by NATO personnel was apparently restricted and airspace over the area has been closed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 What if airspace is closed ? No flights in or out? "Late Saturday night all access to the military base by NATO personnel was apparently restricted and airspace over the area has been closed." I believe that's what he meant by secure destination, flight path, and fighter escort If an airspace is closed, it's usually done so by the US Air Force. If the air space is closed by someone else (Turkey), I suspect the USAF wouldn't have much problem opening up a path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 What if airspace is closed ? No flights in or out? "Late Saturday night all access to the military base by NATO personnel was apparently restricted and airspace over the area has been closed." "...and a fighter escort..." Repeat after me: Read, THEN respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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