I promoted getting Roberto Aguayo in the 1st round...

[What a Tuel]

Facts are facts. Kickers score more points than any other position.

 

Other than the QB, they have more opportunity to change the game for the better or worse.

 

So let's get this straight. If you could go back in time and have your choice of 1 player for the Bills, you would take Janikowski (1,675 points scored) over Peyton Manning (539), Tom Brady (428), Drew Brees (428)? Let alone Ray Lewis who had a measly 18 points scored over his career? Not saying Shaq compares in value to any of these guys, but points scored proves it right? Facts are facts.

 

Data is skewed when it comes to kickers.

[Kirby Jackson]

Facts are facts. Kickers score more points than any other position.

 

Other than the QB, they have more opportunity to change the game for the better or worse.

The point though is the difference between the best and worst K is negligible. The difference between the top and bottom QB is massive. Now it's a little more important with the longer extra points but still not worth more than a 5th rounder (ever) IMO. Dan Bailey might be the best kicker in the league -undrafted. You need to find the right kicker but you don't need an eary pick to do that.

[#34fan]

 

So let's get this straight. If you could go back in time and have your choice of 1 player for the Bills, you would take Janikowski (1,675 points scored) over Peyton Manning (539), Tom Brady (428), Drew Brees (428)? Let alone Ray Lewis who had a measly 18 points scored over his career? Not saying Shaq compares in value to any of these guys, but points scored proves it right? Facts are facts.

 

Data is skewed when it comes to kickers.

 

I dunno... Jani-King won some games with that diosaur leg he's got... Even Manning needed Vanderjagt and Vinatieri on his side.

[hondo in seattle]

Facts are facts. Kickers score more points than any other position.

 

Other than the QB, they have more opportunity to change the game for the better or worse.

 

There are facts and there are theories. Facts say kickers score a lot of points. That can't be argued. But the theory that kickers are worth of 2nd round draft choice is a bad one.

 

There's a world of difference between a 1st round QB and a UDFA QB. That's why so many QBs get drafted early.

 

There's not a world of difference between a the first kickers drafted and the ones not drafted. That's why very few kickers get drafted early.

 

Kicking the ball is not a comparatively rare skill. Throwing the ball in a game time situation is a rare skill.

[BarleyNY]

Good read.The author was arguing that climate and the kicker from last year dictated that trading up for Aguayo was a bad move.He makes some good points. The first is that you need a good kicker more in colder weather (like Buffalo).The second is that last years kicker for the Bucs had a very good year and even a stellar performance from Aguayo wouldn't be much of an improvement. That can't be said for Carpenter. As a matter of fact, we would be paying Aguayo LESS than Carpenter, let alone Carpenter and Gay.The top 20 scorers in the NFL last year were kickers. Carpenter was 20th. We are screaming for improved performance from the defense that ranked 22nd last year. Why not kicker?Look at the wasted 1st round picks...Manziel, anyone?

The climate and existing kicker are fair distinctions between Buffalo and TB. But Barth only got a one year, vet minimum deal from NO. If that's the going rate for good kickers I'd argue that a first or second round draft pick plus a kicker about equivalent to Barth far outweighs the value of a kicker like Aguayo - even in a cold, windy city like Buffalo. Throwing out names of 1st round busts is irrelevant as there are plenty of 1st round game changers as well. The Bills could use an upgrade at K, but there's a lot of inexpensive opportunity to do that. Using a high draft pick for a marginal to negligible upgrade over that just doesn't make sense to me.

 

Funny thing about 1st round pick Sebastian Janikowski. He's 22nd on the list.

Edited June 11, 2016 by BarleyNY

[What a Tuel]

I dunno... Jani-King won some games with that diosaur leg he's got... Even Manning needed Vanderjagt and Vinatieri on his side.

 

Right but Janikowski didn't turn the tide for the Raiders with his large amount of points scored as is suggested by the OP. In fact after the Raiders drafted Janikowski in 2000 the raiders exceeded 8-8 just three times (2000,2001,2002). Do you think the Raiders make the same pick if they had a redo? Edit: Granted they did go to the Super Bowl one of those years.

Edited June 11, 2016 by What a Tuel

[NorthBuffaloKid]

So let's get this straight. If you could go back in time and have your choice of 1 player for the Bills, you would take Janikowski (1,675 points scored) over Peyton Manning (539), Tom Brady (428), Drew Brees (428)? Let alone Ray Lewis who had a measly 18 points scored over his career? Not saying Shaq compares in value to any of these guys, but points scored proves it right? Facts are facts.

 

Data is skewed when it comes to kickers.

Of course I would take any of the above. They are proven players, not Tom Cousineau,Tony Hunter, Aaron Maybin, or Johnny Manziel.

 

I would take Janikowski over these players.

[#34fan]

 

There are facts and there are theories. Facts say kickers score a lot of points. That can't be argued. But the theory that kickers are worth of 2nd round draft choice is a bad one.

 

There's a world of difference between a 1st round QB and a UDFA QB. That's why so many QBs get drafted early.

 

There's not a world of difference between a the first kickers drafted and the ones not drafted. That's why very few kickers get drafted early.

 

Kicking the ball is not a comparatively rare skill. Throwing the ball in a game time situation is a rare skill.

 

Kicking the ball ACCURATELY? -From 45+ yards??? Wow.... I couldn't disagree more with this statement.... Peyton Manning, with all his passing records, will still need the occaisional 50+ yarder to win a game... Sea-Bass can get you that... FSU has a history of big-time Legs in the NFL... Sure it's a risk, but if it works out, you won't have to worry about that KEY position for a very long time.

Edited June 11, 2016 by #34fan

[NorthBuffaloKid]

Right but Janikowski didn't turn the tide for the Raiders with his large amount of points scored as is suggested by the OP. In fact after the Raiders drafted Janikowski in 2000 the raiders exceeded 8-8 just three times (2000,2001,2002). Do you think the Raiders make the same pick if they had a redo? Edit: Granted they did go to the Super Bowl one of those years.

Good question. He was picked 6 spots before Winfield, who turned out to be a good DB.

 

Which player affected more games? Lasted longer?

Kicking the ball ACCURATELY? -From 45+ yards??? Wow.... I couldn't disagree more with this statement.... Peyton Manning, with all his passing records, will still need the occaisional 50+ yarder to win a game... Sea-Bass can get you that... FSU has a history of big-time Legs in the NFL... Sure it's a risk, but if it works out, you won't have to worry about that KEY position for a very long time.

My point exactly!!!

[Kirby Jackson]

Good question. He was picked 6 spots before Winfield, who turned out to be a good DB.

 

Which player affected more games? Lasted longer?

 

What you're missing is the difference between them and the players that they would replace. The Raiders could have drafted Rackers in the 6th or signed Lindell or Shayne Graham as undrafted guys (in the same year). It's so much easier to find a productive kicker later in the draft than a Pro Bowl corner. Yes, there are some exceptions but the value will never be there on a 1st round kicker. That's why you won't see it again.

 

FWIW, Graham has been a more accurate kicker than Janikowski.

Edited June 11, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[NorthBuffaloKid]

What you're missing is the difference between them and the players that they would replace. The Raiders could have drafted Rackers in the 6th or signed Lindell or Shayne Graham as undrafted guys (in the same year). It's so much easier to find a productive kicker later in the draft than a Pro Bowl corner. Yes, there are some exceptions but the value will never be there on a 1st round kicker. That's why you won't see it again.

 

FWIW, Graham has been a more accurate kicker than Janikowski.

More than likely, Jankowski was asked to attempt many more long kicks.

 

If you have a kicker with a weak leg, you will not ask them to try a 60 yarder with 10 seconds to go. You'll try to get closer.

[What a Tuel]

Of course I would take any of the above. They are proven players, not Tom Cousineau,Tony Hunter, Aaron Maybin, or Johnny Manziel.

 

I would take Janikowski over these players.

 

yeah, but we are mixing points now. Those players were in relation to total points scored being a good indicator of the value of a player or position.

 

As for selecting a kicker in the 1st round, time will tell for the impact of Shaq Lawson, but he is just as proven in the NFL as Aguayo. Of course Shaq is set back with his injury, but the chance of Shaq having a significant impact for the bills throughout his contract is greater than the talent gap between Carpenter and Aguayo.

[3rdand12]

Who was it moved up and drafted a punter a couples seasons ago?

[NorthBuffaloKid]

yeah, but we are mixing points now. Those players were in relation to total points scored being a good indicator of the value of a player or position.

 

As for selecting a kicker in the 1st round, time will tell for the impact of Shaq Lawson, but he is just as proven in the NFL as Aguayo. Of course Shaq is set back with his injury, but the chance of Shaq having a significant impact for the bills throughout his contract is greater than the talent gap between Carpenter and Aguayo.

Well said! I hope that you're right, but time will tell.

 

As a whole, I agree about a kicker, but from all indications, this guy is very special.

[thurst44]

And was roundly criticized for it.

 

One of the things that I said was that kickers seldom get injured.

 

I also pointed out that the top 20 scorers of all time are kickers.

 

Now that our 1st round pick is out for a while, it seems as if the idea isn't as crazy as some of you said.

 

And no, I'm not smoking, drinking or injecting anything.

 

I'm just bored this off season and stirring the pot...

 

GO BILLS!kicker 1.png

Ha, at least you admit you're stirring the pot . One piece of delicious irony (in the vaguest, alanis-iest sense of irony) in your reasoning, the very reason Dan Carpenter is currently our kicker is because the last kicker we drafted, Dustin Hopkins, was hurt in training camp and scheduled to miss some of the season.

[3rdand12]

 

yeah, but we are mixing points now. Those players were in relation to total points scored being a good indicator of the value of a player or position.

 

As for selecting a kicker in the 1st round, time will tell for the impact of Shaq Lawson, but he is just as proven in the NFL as Aguayo. Of course Shaq is set back with his injury, but the chance of Shaq having a significant impact for the bills throughout his contract is greater than the talent gap between Carpenter and Aguayo.

would you agree that Dan may have lost us some games last year ?

The ability of the Kicker also changes how the game is managed. Announcers often talk about " getting into field goal range "

If you have a " Money " kicker you play the game differently.

 

But there is no comparison as to his value as compared to QB.

Apples to Bok Choy

Well said! I hope that you're right, but time will tell.

 

As a whole, I agree about a kicker, but from all indications, this guy is very special.

I had him on my list if he lasted to the 5th-6th. But that me reaching for a kicker too. He might be an excellent kicker for many years to come !

[Direhard Fan]

Carpenter is our kicker and a good one. Injury LY hurt him a lot. I don't expect missed extra points this year. A mental thing. To waste a one or two on a kicker is not wise. A good "O" team doesn't make a kicker do 50-55 yard kicks a lot. A good coach doesn't either. Build a great "D" and we will be in heaven. Please.

[NorthBuffaloKid]

Carpenter is our kicker and a good one. Injury LY hurt him a lot. I don't expect missed extra points this year. A mental thing. To waste a one or two on a kicker is not wise. A good "O" team doesn't make a kicker do 50-55 yard kicks a lot. A good coach doesn't either. Build a great "D" and we will be in heaven. Please.

There are 3 aspects to the game:

 

1. Offense

2. Defense

3. Special teams

 

All have to be firing on all cylinders if a team wants to win.

 

Last year, our kicker didn't fare well (neither did the rest of our special teams or our defense).

 

Our 19th pick is currently recovering from surgery.

 

No matter what anyone says, that doesn't bode well.

[#34fan]

What you're missing is the difference between them and the players that they would replace. The Raiders could have drafted Rackers in the 6th or signed Lindell or Shayne Graham as undrafted guys (in the same year). It's so much easier to find a productive kicker later in the draft than a Pro Bowl corner. Yes, there are some exceptions but the value will never be there on a 1st round kicker. That's why you won't see it again.

 

FWIW, Graham has been a more accurate kicker than Janikowski.

 

I don't think the OP is saying there's a K worth the risk in EVERY draft... It is a specialty position... Aguayo was a standout, and to TAM was clearly worth taking the chance... Remember, they already have what they feel is the franchise arm... Why not compliment that with a franchise leg?

[Kirby Jackson]

More than likely, Jankowski was asked to attempt many more long kicks.

 

If you have a kicker with a weak leg, you will not ask them to try a 60 yarder with 10 seconds to go. You'll try to get closer.

He's attempted an average of 6 50+ yard FGs a year in his career. If you say the average kicker is attempting 4 (ish) that situation arises twice a year. He is a 56.5% kicker from 50 plus. If you say the average kicker is at least 50% from there we are talking just over 1 more make a year from that distance.

 

In addition, if it is "fringe" FG area other teams may convert 4th down instead of the attempt. There are some points there as well. The value just isn't there.